NEW YORK, Jan 4, 2026, 12:11 PM ET — Market closed
- The Dow rose 0.67% on Friday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.26% and the Nasdaq added 0.12%. 1
- Investors return Monday watching Venezuela developments and the Jan. 9 U.S. employment report for clues on Fed rate cuts. 2
- The next big tests land Jan. 13 with U.S. CPI data and early fourth-quarter earnings, including JPMorgan. 2
Wall Street heads into the first full trading week of 2026 with fresh geopolitical risk on the radar after President Donald Trump said the United States captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and would place the oil-rich country under temporary American control. Investors will also be digesting a heavy run of U.S. economic data capped by the monthly jobs report on Jan. 9. 2
The timing matters because markets are coming out of thin, year-end trading with volatility still subdued and major indexes near record highs. “The market is looking for direction,” said Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. 2
Valuations leave little room for bad news. Savita Subramanian, Bank of America’s equity and quant strategist, wrote that stocks look expensive on 18 of 20 valuation measures and flagged elevated near-term risk for the index level. 3
On the last trading day, U.S. stocks ended modestly higher to open 2026. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 321.27 points, or 0.67%, while the S&P 500 added 0.26% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.12%. 1
Bond yields moved up, a headwind that can pressure equity valuations by lifting the return investors can earn in safer assets. The 10-year Treasury yield ended Friday around 4.195%, up about 4 basis points — a basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. 1
Chipmakers helped support the broader market, with the Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index up about 3.5% in the session. Traders also pointed to strength in value-oriented areas such as industrials and utilities after a year in which investors leaned heavily into AI-linked growth themes. 3
Rate expectations are now the hinge for most equity calls. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates at each of its last three meetings of 2025, and its benchmark rate sits at 3.5% to 3.75%, Reuters reported. Fed funds futures — derivatives that reflect traders’ expectations for where the policy rate will land — point to little chance of a cut at the Fed’s late-January meeting but close to a 50% chance of a quarter-point move in March. 2
The jobs report on Jan. 9 is the week’s biggest scheduled catalyst. A Reuters poll showed economists expect December payrolls to rise by about 55,000 after a 64,000 increase in November, with the unemployment rate seen at 4.6%, which Reuters said was a more than four-year high in the prior report. 2
Investors will also get other labor-market signals earlier in the week, including job openings data on Jan. 7, as the government’s economic calendar normalizes after a shutdown that delayed some releases. Inflation will be back in focus on Jan. 13, when the U.S. consumer price index is due. 2
Earnings season will start to take over the tape. Reuters reported JPMorgan is due to report on Jan. 13, and investors will be listening for guidance on loan demand, trading trends and credit quality, with stocks priced for strong profit growth after a three-year run of gains. LSEG IBES data cited by Reuters showed S&P 500 earnings are expected to rise 15.5% in 2026 after an estimated 13% increase in 2025. 2
But the downside scenario is straightforward: a weaker-than-expected jobs report could revive recession fears, while sticky inflation could push yields higher and force a rethink of rich equity valuations. Traders also warned that any oil-price volatility tied to Venezuela could ripple across risk assets, while Reuters noted other political catalysts ahead including a looming U.S. Supreme Court decision on Trump’s tariffs and his choice of a new Fed chair. 2
The next clear markers for investors are Monday’s return to regular U.S. trading, then Jan. 7 job openings data, the Jan. 9 employment report, and Jan. 13’s CPI release and early big-bank earnings. 4
