NEW YORK, March 27, 2026, 11:22 EDT
- The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were on track for a fifth straight weekly loss by late Friday morning, while the Dow was little changed for the week.
- Brent crude rose 2.64% to $110.86 a barrel and U.S. crude gained 2.68% to $97.01 after Trump extended his Strait of Hormuz deadline to April 6 at 8 p.m. ET.
- Traders now see virtually no Federal Reserve rate cut this year, versus two cuts expected before the war, and the Nasdaq is already in correction.
The U.S. stock market fell and oil prices rose on Friday after President Donald Trump’s latest delay to threatened attacks on Iran’s energy plants failed to convince investors the month-old war was moving toward a settlement. By 10:09 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.06%, the S&P 500 had lost 0.94% and the Nasdaq Composite was off 1.27%, leaving the S&P and Nasdaq on track for a fifth straight weekly loss. Brent crude was up 2.64% at $110.86 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate gained 2.68% to $97.01.
For markets, the issue is no longer just whether Washington buys time. It is what oil above $100 does to inflation, interest-rate bets and consumers, with U.S. gasoline at $3.98 a gallon and consumer sentiment at 53.3, the weakest since December.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook said Thursday the inflation risk was “greater right now” because of the war, and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said Friday the policy fog had “deepened and spread.” Interest-rate futures now imply virtually no chance of a cut this year, a sharp turn from the two cuts markets had expected before the conflict. Reuters
Trump said on Thursday he would extend by 10 days, until April 6 at 8 p.m. ET, a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on its energy infrastructure. The waterway carries about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, which is why every pause, threat or denial is moving prices.
The White House move did not steady nerves. “Financial markets remain headline-driven,” David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, said, while ITC Markets senior FX analyst Sean Callow said many investors doubted that productive negotiations were really under way. Reuters
That leaves crude doing much of the talking. Priyanka Sachdeva, an analyst at Phillip Nova, said the market is trading “war longevity, not just headlines,” and both oil benchmarks were still heading for their first weekly decline since the war began despite Friday’s jump. Reuters
The brief relief rally earlier this week already looks thin. On Wednesday, Wall Street closed higher as oil fell more than 2% and Iran said it was reviewing a U.S. proposal relayed by Pakistan; the Dow rose 0.66%, the S&P 500 added 0.54% and the Nasdaq gained 0.77%.
Friday’s selling was broad. American Airlines and United Airlines each lost 1.2% as higher fuel costs hit travel shares, Carnival fell 1.3% after cutting its annual adjusted profit forecast, while Unity Software jumped 11.7% on preliminary first-quarter revenue above estimates.
The Nasdaq confirmed a correction on Thursday, Wall Street shorthand for a drop of at least 10% from a recent peak, and it is now nearly 11% below its Oct. 29 record close. Glen Smith, chief investment officer at GDS Wealth Management, said the speed of the decline still argued for “a correction, and not a bear market.” Reuters
Consumers are feeling some of this already. Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, said households with middle and higher incomes and stock wealth showed “particularly large drops in sentiment” as gasoline prices rose and markets swung. Reuters
But this can still snap the other way. Macquarie said oil would fall quickly if the war starts to wind down soon, though it would likely stay above pre-conflict levels, while a fight that drags into late June could lift crude to $200 a barrel; Gene Goldman of Cetera Investment Management said earlier this week that any sign of talks could still set the stage for more negotiations even as volatility looked likely “to remain elevated.” Reuters
