NEW YORK, March 24, 2026, 07:39 EDT
Tuesday brought a pause to Wall Street’s relief rally. President Donald Trump’s assertion of Iran talks had pushed stocks higher and oil down the previous day, but that momentum faded. Stock-index futures slipped roughly 0.4%. Brent crude, meanwhile, recovered above $101 a barrel after Tehran shot down the prospect of negotiations with Washington.
This is catching traders off guard, with every new headline prompting a rethink of energy shock risk. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint funnelling roughly 20% of global oil and LNG, stays heavily restricted. Futures action now reflects zero expectation for Fed rate cuts this year as the war throws all the previous bets on looser policy out the window.
The market mood took a sharp turn after Trump posted on Truth Social early Monday, revealing that the U.S. and Iran had been in talks and that he’d pushed back planned strikes on Iran’s energy and power facilities by five days. By the end of the session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 631 points, the S&P 500 was up 1.15%, and the Nasdaq tacked on 1.38%. Brent and U.S. crude, though, both stayed deep in the red, closing around $99.90 and $88.84, respectively.
Iran fired back almost immediately. Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the parliament speaker, denied that any negotiations with the United States had occurred. Deutsche Bank analysts, led by Jim Reid, noted that “much now depends on the progress of any talks” and questioned whether the positive tone will translate into concrete steps. Reuters
The tape lit up next. Bloomberg flagged an outsized move: in just two minutes starting at 6:49 a.m. Washington time on Monday, traders swapped contracts tied to at least 6 million barrels of Brent and West Texas Intermediate—well above the roughly 700,000-barrel average seen in that slot over the last five sessions. S&P 500 futures also saw action, Bloomberg noted, with around 6,000 contracts changing hands—over $2 billion worth.
New York wasn’t the only market feeling the impact. On Monday, the Russell 2000 jumped 2.5%, while Europe’s STOXX 600 put up a 0.61% gain. But by Tuesday, the European index slid 0.4% as the initial surge faded. According to Reuters analysis, U.S. stocks are down roughly 4% since late February; that compares with a 9% slide for the STOXX 600 and a 12% drop for Japan’s Nikkei.
Strategists aren’t ready to call a shift just yet. “The underlying situation is still incredibly fragile or flammable,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore noted. KCM Trade’s Tim Waterer described Tuesday’s oil move as the market “finding its footing in the mud,” with traders trying to balance the halt in attacks on Iran’s energy grid against renewed signs of conflict. Reuters
The risk is clear enough: Iran fired more missiles at Israel on Tuesday and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still heavily restricted. Macquarie warned Brent could spike all the way to $150 a barrel if the route stays closed through April. That scenario would keep upward pressure on inflation and borrowing costs, punishing sectors that only got a brief lift when oil prices dipped.
Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex Europe, said Trump appeared to be “looking for an off ramp,” though he noted markets weren’t entirely buying it. So investors are left weighing a tentative five-day pause—with no guarantee it leads to diplomacy—against a sudden burst of futures trading that hit just ahead of the post that sent markets moving. Reuters
