NEW YORK, May 17, 2026, 13:03 (EDT)
- U.S. stocks start the week close to record highs. But a jump in oil and yields on Friday left the market looking shakier.
- Nvidia will post results Wednesday. Walmart and some other retailers are also due, giving a look at how consumers are doing.
- Traders will watch for Fed minutes Wednesday, as they weigh new inflation signals and adjust interest rate bets.
Stocks in the U.S. close out the week with Wall Street watching Nvidia’s earnings, retail results, and a fresh bond market move that put inflation back in focus. The S&P 500 dropped 1.2% Friday to finish at 7,408.50 but still inched up 0.1% for the week. The Dow shed 0.2% for the week, while the Nasdaq eased 0.1%, AP reported.
The market’s recent run is getting pulled in two directions. Optimism around artificial intelligence—computer programs handling jobs that used to need people—is lifting some stocks. But the economy’s strength is hitting up against higher oil and yields. On Friday, Reuters said global equities dropped as bond yields shot up, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.597% and the 30-year at 5.122%. One basis point equals one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Nvidia is set to report fiscal Q1 numbers Wednesday. Investors are watching beyond top-line results to see if cloud giants are still spending more on Nvidia-powered AI data centers. Visible Alpha consensus from S&P Global Market Intelligence has Nvidia’s revenue forecast at $78.5 billion, with $72.8 billion pegged for data center sales. The same consensus points to open questions about Blackwell and Rubin, Nvidia’s newer AI platforms.
Chip moves are moving past Nvidia. Shares of AMD dropped 5.7% and Intel lost 6.2% on Friday, with the Philadelphia semiconductor index down 4%, Reuters said. Investors can dump AI stocks fast if rates pick up. “The issue is whether Nvidia can still ‘defend its leadership position,’” Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at PNC Financial Services Group, told Reuters. Reuters
Nvidia is set to hold its call at 5 p.m. ET on May 20, and will post written remarks from CFO Colette Kress after the results hit. The timing lands Nvidia, the top AI stock by value, in the midst of a week full of major macro headlines.
Retailers get their turn this week. Walmart reports Q1 numbers at 6 a.m. CDT on Thursday, followed by a call with CEO John Furner and CFO John David Rainey. Home Depot, Target and TJX reports are also expected this week. These updates should give a read on how gas and food costs are influencing shoppers.
Allen Bond, portfolio manager at Jensen Investment Management, said in a Reuters interview that AI and higher energy prices are driving markets “almost parallel tracks.” Patrick Ryan, chief investment strategist at Madison Investments, cautioned that a “smaller set of names” is leading index returns right now, which could mean the rally is less broad than it looks from the main indexes. Reuters
Oil is the factor that could disrupt both narratives. Brent finished Friday at $109.26 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate closed at $105.42. The latest U.S.-Iran strains have hit hopes for a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a major route for oil and LNG shipments. Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights said traders were shifting back to “deadlock and a blockaded Strait of Hormuz.” Reuters
The worry is that even a solid Nvidia report might not help stocks much if yields stay up. Jack Ablin, chief market strategist at Cresset Capital, told Reuters a long delay in fully reopening the strait could mean a “brand new inflation regime.” Peter Tuz at Chase Investment Counsel said if inflation sticks around, “will drive the market down if it continues.” Reuters
Fed minutes from the April 28-29 FOMC meeting are set for release Wednesday, with the calendar showing a 2 p.m. drop on May 20. Investors are watching for any clues on how the committee is weighing rising inflation against growth and jobs risks.
Cash trading resumes Monday. The NYSE and Nasdaq regular session runs from 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET. According to both, the next full market holiday is Memorial Day, May 25.
S&P 500’s climb can go on for now, as the market hangs onto its drive without much relief. Oil prices held steady this week, retailers sounded steady in their outlooks, and Nvidia’s view suggests AI spending stays on track. If rates pick up, higher valuations will be tougher to back up.
