Walmart Stock After Hours on December 11, 2025: Dividend Pop, Nasdaq Buzz and What to Watch Before the December 12 Open

Walmart Inc. (NASDAQ: WMT) heads into Friday’s U.S. stock market open sitting just below record territory, fresh off a dividend-driven rally, a high‑profile move to the Nasdaq, and an intense debate over whether the stock’s big 2025 run is now “priced in.”

Below is a full breakdown of how Walmart stock traded after the bell on December 11, 2025, and the key catalysts investors should know before the market opens on Friday, December 12, 2025.

Key Takeaways

• WMT closed Thursday at $115.52, up about 2.1% on the day, after trading as high as $115.87 – one of its strongest closes ever, with volume above 20 million shares. ^[1]
• After-hours, Walmart slipped only 0.05% to around $115.46, suggesting a calm, consolidating tape rather than a reversal. ^[2]
• The move came after a new quarterly dividend of roughly $0.24 per share was announced, with an ex‑dividend date of December 12, 2025, meaning Friday’s open will automatically reflect that payout. ^[3]
• Walmart has rallied about 25–29% year to date, outpacing the S&P 500 and most big-box peers, driven by rapid e‑commerce growth, higher-margin revenue streams, and a powerful omnichannel model. ^[4]
• Analysts are largely bullish, with fresh price targets of $123 (RBC) and $125 (BMO) and consensus fair value estimates clustered just above the current price – but multiple research shops now warn that valuation is rich and tariff headwinds in 2026 could cap upside. ^[5]

1. How Walmart Stock Traded on December 11, 2025

Regular session: dividend news lifts WMT near record highs

On Thursday, Walmart shares rose about 2.1% to close at $115.52, with intraday trading spanning $112.85 to $115.87 and volume over 20.6 million shares, above the recent daily average. ^[6]

That move puts Walmart just shy of its 52‑week high of $116.27, with a 52‑week range of roughly $79.8–$116.3. ^[7]

What drove the rally?

• Dividend announcement:
  A MarketBeat note flagged that the stock jumped after Walmart declared a new quarterly dividend of about $0.24 per share, payable on January 5, 2026 to shareholders of record on December 12, 2025. ^[8]
  • At Thursday’s close, that implies a forward yield of roughly 0.8%, consistent with other data providers that show a yield around 0.8–0.9%. ^[9]
  • It also extends Walmart’s record of more than 50 consecutive years of dividend increases, highlighted in several recent articles on its shareholder returns profile. ^[10]
• Momentum from a big 2025 run:
  Zacks, via Nasdaq, notes that Walmart shares are up about 25.3% in 2025, beating the growth of its industry, its broader retail sector, and the S&P 500. ^[11] The same piece points to broad-based sales and profit growth across Walmart U.S., Sam’s Club and International, plus 27% e‑commerce growth in the latest quarter (28% in the U.S. and 26% internationally). ^[12]

The upshot: December 11’s rally was not a random spike – it adds to a months‑long trend of outperformance tied to both fundamentals and a shifting narrative about what Walmart is.

After-hours: a mild dip, not a reversal

Once the regular session ended, after-hours trading was notably calm:

• After-hours price: About $115.46, down just $0.06 (‑0.05%) from the close.
• After-hours range: Roughly $115.20 to $115.52 as of around 5:30 p.m. ET. ^[13]

Given the stock had just rallied more than 2%, such a tiny pullback after the bell suggests profit-taking at the margin rather than a shift in sentiment. There were no major new company‑specific headlines between the close and the extended session that changed the thesis.

The small post‑close dip also matters in the context of Friday’s ex‑dividend date (more on that below): some short‑term traders may be fine booking gains now instead of holding through an automatic price adjustment at the open.

2. Why Walmart Is in the Spotlight Right Now

2.1. A historic move to the Nasdaq – and a tech-heavy narrative

On December 9, 2025, Walmart officially moved its primary listing from the New York Stock Exchange to the Nasdaq, keeping the ticker WMT. ^[14]

Key points from recent coverage:

• Largest exchange transfer in history:
  An Investing.com analysis notes that on its final NYSE trading day, Walmart’s market cap was over $905 billion, making this the largest stock-exchange transfer ever. ^[15]
• Why Nasdaq?
  • Retail Dive quotes CEO Doug McMillon describing Walmart as a “people‑led, tech‑powered omnichannel retailer,” with the move meant to align with Nasdaq’s tech focus and potentially pave the way for inclusion in the Nasdaq‑100 and related index funds. ^[16]
  • MarketBeat, via Investing.com, emphasizes that Walmart wants to be seen as a “tech-focused, AI‑first company,” not just a legacy retailer. Over the last decade it has ramped up investments in robotics, machine learning, and store‑fulfilled digital logistics. ^[17]
• AI, automation and super‑apps:
  Coverage of Walmart’s Nasdaq debut highlights initiatives such as:
  • An AI “super‑agents” framework for operations.
  • A partnership with OpenAI allowing shopping via ChatGPT, and broader digital commerce upgrades. ^[18]

This exchange switch doesn’t change Walmart’s business overnight, but it reframes the story: from “low‑price retail giant” to “defensive / tech hybrid with AI and data at the core.”

2.2. Q3 earnings strength and a solid holiday setup

Walmart’s latest earnings (reported in November) still loom large over today’s price action:

• Q3 beat and raised guidance:
  Reuters reports that Walmart:
  • Raised its full‑year net sales outlook for the second time in 2025, now expecting 4.8–5.1% growth vs a prior 3.75–4.75% range.
  • Increased adjusted EPS guidance to $2.58–$2.63.
  • Delivered Q3 revenue of $179.5 billion, up 5.8% and ahead of forecasts, with U.S. comparable sales up 4.5% vs 3.8% expected. ^[19]
• E‑commerce and higher-income shoppers:
  • Online sales jumped 28%, marking a seventh straight quarter of 20+% e‑commerce growth.
  • Faster “expedited deliveries” under three hours climbed 70%, and growth has increasingly been led by wealthier households, not just lower‑income shoppers. ^[20]
• Holiday commentary:
  CFO John David Rainey said the holiday season was off to a “pretty good start”, with strong Halloween and early Thanksgiving results and expectations for Q4 trends broadly in line with recent quarters. ^[21]

Those fundamentals underpin Thursday’s rally: investors aren’t only chasing a dividend; they’re paying for consistency in a shaky consumer environment.

2.3. Analyst sentiment: bullish, but wrestling with valuation

Street ratings and price targets

Analyst commentary turned even more bullish this week:

• BMO Capital reiterated an Outperform rating and $125 price target on December 11 after meetings with Walmart’s IR team, highlighting:
  • AI’s role across operations.
  • The push to improve e‑commerce profitability, ads, and marketplace economics.
  • Ongoing gains in grocery and pharmacy market share. ^[22]
• RBC Capital raised its WMT target to $123 earlier in the week, saying Walmart’s “flywheel” — stores, e‑commerce, logistics, marketplace, membership and advertising — is poised to generate steady share gains and double‑digit EPS growth over the coming years. ^[23]
• A MarketBeat analysis pegs Walmart’s consensus rating at “Moderate Buy” with a consensus price target around $119–120, implying only modest upside from current levels. ^[24]

A separate stock‑forecast model from CoinCodex projects a short‑term move toward about $117.1 by December 13, with algorithmic forecasts pointing to mid‑single‑digit percentage gains over the next year and an upper scenario around $145 by 2028 — but those are model outputs, not guarantees. ^[25]

Fundamental and valuation checks

Two in‑depth fundamental pieces published on December 11 paint a more nuanced picture:

• Simply Wall St valuation breakdown:
  • Finds Walmart up 25.8% YTD and 21.5% over 12 months, with a 9.4% gain over the last month. ^[26]
  • Estimates a DCF “intrinsic value” of about $116.34 per share, making the stock only about 2–3% undervalued at current prices — essentially “about right” on cash‑flow assumptions. ^[27]
  • On earnings, WMT trades at roughly 39.4× earnings, vs ~21.7× for its broader consumer‑retailing industry. Even after adjusting for Walmart’s scale and growth, the site concludes shares look “modestly overvalued” on a P/E basis. ^[28]
• ChartMill’s “Caviar Cruise” quality screen:
  • Identifies Walmart as a high‑quality business with 5‑year EBIT CAGR of 6.45% vs 4.47% sales CAGR, implying margin expansion.
  • Highlights ROIC around 15.4% (excluding intangibles), better than most peers in its sector.
  • Notes a debt‑to‑free‑cash‑flow ratio of about 3.5× and profit quality (free cash flow vs net income) above 100%, signalling strong cash conversion.
  • Yet on valuation, Walmart scores only 1/10, with its P/E ratio well above both the sector and the S&P 500. ^[29]

In short, the Street loves the business but is wary of the price.

2.4. Tariff and macro risks lurking beyond the rally

An InvestorsObserver note published December 11 raises a key downside question: “Will Walmart stock peak before peak tariff impact?” ^[30]

Key risk flags:

• CFO John David Rainey has indicated the “peak impact” of tariff costs will likely hit in Q1 2026, following warnings that higher tariffs would start flowing through to customers in mid‑2025. ^[31]
• Walmart’s reliance on imported goods — particularly apparel, home goods and electronics — leaves it exposed to elevated duties despite new trade deals. ^[32]
• The article argues that while Walmart’s scale and supply‑chain leverage have helped it navigate inflation and tariffs so far, margin pressure could intensify just as the market is paying a premium multiple. ^[33]

Macro context matters here. A widely covered Federal Reserve rate cut on December 10 — a quarter‑point “hawkish cut” — pushed the S&P 500 near record highs and boosted risk assets, including retail. Lower rates tend to support valuation multiples and consumer credit conditions, both helpful for a large retailer like Walmart, but the Fed also signaled a slower path of future cuts, keeping uncertainty alive. ^[34]

3. What to Know Before the December 12, 2025 Open

3.1. Ex-dividend mechanics: expect a small price “step down”

The most immediate catalyst for Friday’s open is Walmart’s ex‑dividend date:

• Ex‑dividend date:Friday, December 12, 2025.
• Dividend amount: About $0.24 per share (quarterly). ^[35]

On the ex‑dividend date, the stock typically opens about the size of the dividend lower, all else equal, because new buyers are no longer entitled to that payout.

So, if fundamental news is unchanged overnight:

• A mechanical drop of roughly $0.24 from Thursday’s $115.52 close would not necessarily mean bearish sentiment — it’s largely accounting.
• Traders should distinguish between:
  • “dividend math” (a small, expected gap) and
  • any additional move driven by news, futures, or investor positioning.

For existing shareholders, the dividend is simply shifted from share price to cash, so your total economic exposure doesn’t suddenly change because of that small gap.

3.2. Short-term levels and technical picture

MarketBeat and other outlets highlight that Walmart’s chart has been in a strong uptrend since its November earnings report, with:

• A P/E multiple around 40×, now comparable to high‑growth tech leaders. ^[36]
• 20‑ and 50‑day simple moving averages sloping upward, pointing to a robust intermediate trend.
• An RSI above 70, which typically signals overbought conditions and increases the odds of a consolidation or mild pullback rather than a continued parabolic move. ^[37]

For Friday’s session, many short‑term traders will be watching:

• Resistance:
  • $116.27, the current 52‑week high, is a clear near‑term ceiling. ^[38]
• Support zones:
  • The $113–114 area, roughly where WMT traded earlier this week and near recent short‑term support. ^[39]
  • Deeper support around previous consolidation zones into the high‑100s if any macro shock hits.

Given the combination of overbought readings and ex‑dividend mechanics, many technicians see scope for sideways action or a small pullback rather than an immediate breakout, unless fresh news provides a new catalyst.

3.3. Sentiment vs. valuation: what the latest research is saying

Thursday’s batch of research reports coalesces around a few themes:

Bullish drivers:

• Omnichannel engine:
  Zacks emphasizes Walmart’s 27% e‑commerce growth, with one‑third of U.S. store‑fulfilled orders delivered in under three hours, plus healthy membership gains at Walmart+ and Sam’s Club. ^[40]
• Shifting to higher-margin lines:
  Advertising, membership income, and better e‑commerce economics now account for roughly one‑third of consolidated adjusted operating income, helping support margins even as Walmart remains price‑competitive. ^[41]
• Quality and resilience:
  Fundamental screens show high ROIC, strong cash conversion and a fortress‑like balance sheet, traits that quality investors prize in uncertain macro conditions. ^[42]

Key concerns:

• Rich valuation:
  • P/E around 39–40× vs low‑20s for the sector and mid‑20s for many peers. ^[43]
  • Simply Wall St’s blended view: fair on DCF, but slightly overvalued compared with a “fair” P/E multiple. ^[44]
• Tariffs and margins:
  InvestorObserver warns that peak tariff impact in early 2026 could squeeze margins in import-heavy categories, just as Walmart is being priced more like a growth stock than a defensive grocer. ^[45]
• Mix shift:
  Zacks points out that growth skewed toward lower‑margin grocery and health & wellness categories, while tariffs and promotions in key international markets weighed on margins. ^[46]

Net-net, the consensus is “constructive but cautious”: the business looks excellent, but investors are paying up for that excellence.

3.4. Holiday season, macro data and index flows

Looking into Friday’s open and the days ahead, traders and investors will be watching:

1. Holiday traffic updates
   Any new data on U.S. holiday spending, especially in discretionary categories, will be read through Walmart’s lens as a key gauge of the consumer.
2. Macro releases and rates
   Following this week’s Fed rate cut and commentary, bond yields and inflation expectations remain critical for all high‑multiple names, including WMT. ^[47]
3. Index and ETF flows
   With the Nasdaq move completed, potential inclusion effects in Nasdaq‑linked indices and ETFs could quietly support demand over time, even if nothing changes immediately on December 12. Analysts at Jefferies and others have framed the listing transfer as a step toward a more “tech index” investor base. ^[48]
4. Fresh upgrades or downgrades
   More analyst notes on Friday – particularly around holiday performance, tariffs or margin sustainability – could move the stock in early trading.

4. A Quick Checklist Before the Bell on December 12, 2025

For anyone following Walmart stock into Friday’s U.S. market open, here’s a concise checklist:

1. Ex‑dividend adjustment
   • Expect an automatic price step‑down of about $0.24 at the open, all else equal.
   • Don’t confuse this with a fundamental sell‑off; it’s part of how dividends work. ^[49]
2. Pre‑market trading vs. $115–$116 range
   • Watch whether pre‑market quotes hold near Thursday’s close or slip further as traders digest the dividend math and macro headlines.
3. News flow on tariffs and trade
   • Any updates on tariff policy or Walmart’s commentary on cost pass‑throughs could quickly feed into the 2026 margin narrative. ^[50]
4. Holiday demand indicators
   • Retail‑wide trackers, credit‑card spending data, or peer updates (Target, Costco, Amazon) will all be used as read‑throughs for Walmart’s Q4 trajectory. ^[51]
5. Valuation discipline
   • With WMT traded like a high‑quality growth compounder, investors will want to be clear on whether they’re comfortable with a ~40× earnings multiple at this point in the cycle. ^[52]
6. Technical posture
   • Overbought indicators plus strong trend usually mean either a consolidation or a measured pullback, not necessarily a collapse – but they do raise the stakes of chasing strength blindly. ^[53]
7. Your own time horizon
   • Many of the positives (AI investments, Nasdaq re‑rating, tariff navigation) are multi‑year stories, while dividends and ex‑dates are short‑term mechanics. Aligning those with your time horizon matters more than any single session.

5. Bottom Line

After the bell on December 11, 2025, Walmart sits in a sweet – but tricky – spot:

• The business momentum is undeniable: strong Q3 results, surging e‑commerce, higher‑margin revenue streams, and a tech‑heavy strategy that’s now being underlined by its Nasdaq listing. ^[54]
• Analysts have rushed in with higher price targets and reaffirmed bullish ratings, but they’re increasingly vocal about valuation and 2026 tariff risks. ^[55]
• The stock is near all‑time highs, trading at a premium multiple, and Friday’s open will be shaped by a routine ex‑dividend adjustment rather than a fresh piece of shock news. ^[56]

For traders, that means a potentially choppy but news‑sensitive session around the $115–$116 band. For long‑term investors, the question is less “What happens on Friday’s open?” and more “Am I comfortable owning a high‑quality, tech‑infused retailer at this price, through a 2026 tariff cycle?”

References

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