Walmart Inc. shares (WMT) ended Tuesday’s session lower and stayed soft in early after-hours trading, even as the broader U.S. market pushed to a fresh record close in a holiday-thinned week. The move comes as investors weigh two competing narratives: near-term headline risk tied to the ByHeart infant formula investigation and litigation, versus Walmart’s longer-term push to expand higher-margin profit engines like advertising and membership income. [1]
Below is what happened after the bell on Tuesday, December 23, 2025, what dominated today’s analysis and forecasts, and what to watch before markets open on Wednesday, December 24, 2025—a shortened trading session ahead of Christmas. [2]
Walmart stock after the bell: the numbers investors are watching
Walmart closed regular trading on Dec. 23 at $110.90, down $1.70 (-1.51%). The stock traded between an intraday high of $112.35 and a low of $110.70, on volume of about 20.2 million shares. [3]
In after-hours trading shortly after the close, WMT ticked down to around $110.70 (about -0.18% versus the close, as of 4:54 p.m. ET). [4]
Context matters: the dip extends a late-December pullback from earlier in the month—WMT closed at $116.70 on Dec. 12—putting the stock roughly 5% below that level heading into the final pre-holiday session. [5]
Why Walmart stock moved today: the headlines behind the tape
Walmart didn’t post earnings today, and there wasn’t a single official company catalyst timed to the close. Instead, the stock’s down day looks like the market repricing a mix of risk factors—especially legal and regulatory headlines around recalled baby formula—against the company’s premium valuation and the broader market’s risk-on rotation into mega-cap growth. [6]
1) Legal and regulatory overhang: ByHeart infant formula investigation and lawsuits
A key pressure point in recent coverage is the expanding fallout from the ByHeart Whole Nutrition Infant Formula recall and the wider infant botulism investigation.
- Potential expansion of lawsuits to include retailers: Bloomberg Law reported that Target, Whole Foods, and Walmart are expected to be added as defendants in lawsuits against ByHeart, according to attorney Bill Marler, who said he planned to add the grocery chains to the cases. Even if retailers ultimately defend successfully, litigation can create uncertainty around costs, reputational risk, and the pace of resolution—especially when cases involve infant health outcomes. [7]
- FDA warning letter details: The FDA’s warning letter to Walmart describes an investigation (with CDC and multiple partners) into a multistate infant botulism outbreak linked to ByHeart formula, noting that as of Dec. 10, 2025, CDC reported 51 infants from 19 states with suspected or confirmed cases, and that CDC determined the ByHeart product was the source based on epidemiological evidence. [8]
- Retail execution risk in recalls: Reuters reported earlier this month that the FDA sent warning letters to Walmart, Target, Kroger, and Albertsons for continuing to sell recalled ByHeart formula after being notified of the recall, with recalled products found at Walmart stores across 21 states, and the FDA giving retailers time to respond on corrective steps. That kind of headline tends to resonate with investors because it touches store-level process controls, compliance, and brand trust. [9]
Why this matters for WMT investors: Walmart is built to be a “reliability” brand—especially in essentials like grocery and baby care. Any story that questions recall execution or adds legal uncertainty can affect sentiment even if the company’s core demand trends remain steady.
2) The other side of the story: Walmart’s advertising business keeps gaining strategic weight
While the formula news adds near-term noise, today’s bullish fundamental discussion was centered on Walmart’s advertising and retail media momentum.
A Zacks analysis carried by Nasdaq highlighted Walmart’s global advertising revenue growth of 53% in its third quarter of fiscal 2026, pointing to Walmart’s retail media ecosystem across digital and physical surfaces. The same piece emphasized that advertising plus membership income represented roughly one-third of consolidated adjusted operating income in the quarter—important because these are typically higher-margin revenue streams than traditional retail. [10]
From the same analysis, the market is also clearly pricing in this mix shift: the article cited Walmart’s forward 12‑month P/E ratio around 38.79, and noted that Zacks’ consensus expectations implied approximately 4.5% sales growth and 4.8% EPS growth for the current financial year (alongside a Zacks Rank #3 / Hold). [11]
Investor takeaway: The “Walmart isn’t just a retailer” thesis—ads, membership, data, fulfillment speed—continues to be the fundamental counterweight to episodic headline risk.
Today’s forecasts and analyst views: where expectations sit heading into Dec. 24
Because Walmart isn’t reporting earnings this week, the most actionable “forecast” signals today were: (1) where analysts cluster their price targets and ratings, and (2) what forward models suggest about revenue/earnings trajectory.
Street-style consensus: price targets remain above the current tape
MarketBeat’s compiled data published today characterized Walmart as a “Moderate Buy,” with a consensus price target of $120.54. Compared with the Dec. 23 close of $110.90, that implies a market-implied upside expectation of roughly high-single digits—though individual targets vary widely. [12]
Model-based outlook: mid-single-digit growth assumptions
A separate analysis published today by Simply Wall St framed Walmart’s longer-range narrative around mid-single-digit growth, citing projections that point toward roughly 4.5% annual revenue growth and a path to $789.9 billion revenue and $27.4 billion earnings by 2028, with a fair value estimate around $119.45 (about mid-single-digit upside versus the current price in that model). [13]
How to read this: When a stock trades at a premium multiple, the market is effectively demanding that execution stay clean—especially in higher-margin lines like ads, membership, and marketplace—because that’s what justifies valuation resilience if retail growth moderates.
Broader market context tonight: record indexes, but holiday liquidity is fading
Even as Walmart slipped, U.S. equities finished higher Tuesday, with Reuters reporting the S&P 500 notching a record close and noting that trading volumes were light and likely to thin out further as Christmas approaches. Reuters also pointed out that U.S. markets will close early Wednesday and remain shut Thursday for Christmas. [14]
The macro backdrop was mixed. Reuters reported the Commerce Department’s estimate that Q3 GDP grew at a 4.3% annualized rate, while other data pointed to weakening consumer confidence. [15]
AP’s market wrap similarly underscored that the major indexes rose to (or near) records, while noting consumer confidence weakness and softer holiday spending growth versus last year—a relevant read-through for the entire retail complex heading into year-end. [16]
What to know before the stock market opens tomorrow, Dec. 24, 2025
Wednesday is not a “normal” session, and that matters for how to interpret any premarket move in WMT (or the broader tape).
1) It’s an early-close session for stocks—and that can distort price action
U.S. stock markets will be open Wednesday but will close early at 1:00 p.m. ET, with bond markets typically observing a 2:00 p.m. ET early close. [17]
Practical implication: spreads can widen, single headlines can move prices more than usual, and late-morning moves can look “bigger than they are” because liquidity is thinner.
2) Watch 8:30 a.m. ET: jobless claims are the main scheduled U.S. datapoint
Investopedia flagged weekly initial jobless claims (for the week ended Dec. 20) as the key economic release on Wednesday morning. Even when the datapoint isn’t “retail-specific,” it can move rates and risk appetite, which often affects high-multiple defensives like Walmart via valuation math. [18]
3) Federal offices are closed, but markets are not
There’s an additional calendar wrinkle this year: the White House issued an executive order closing federal executive departments and agencies on Dec. 24 and Dec. 26, 2025. That can confuse market participants—so it’s worth being explicit: the markets are still scheduled to trade (with the normal Christmas Eve early close). [19]
SIFMA also stated that despite the federal closure announcement, there is no change to its recommendation that U.S. bond markets remain open on those days, while still observing the Christmas Eve early close. [20]
4) Walmart-specific “headline watch” list for Wednesday morning
Given what drove attention today, here are the Walmart-specific items that could plausibly matter most before (or shortly after) the open:
- Any update on the ByHeart litigation path (e.g., confirmations of retailers being added, court filings, statements from parties). [21]
- Any additional FDA/recall-related communications tied to retailer process expectations, since FDA’s warning letter language can be cited in future litigation and can influence public narrative. [22]
- Last-minute holiday commerce signals, particularly around delivery speed and capacity (Walmart has been marketing late-order windows and express delivery right up to Christmas Eve in recent corporate communications). [23]
The bottom line heading into Dec. 24
Walmart stock is closing in on Christmas week with two forces pulling in opposite directions:
- Short-term risk: regulatory/legal headlines around recalled infant formula and the prospect of expanded litigation, which can pressure sentiment even without immediate financial impact. [24]
- Long-term support: an increasingly diversified profit mix—especially advertising and membership income—that today’s analysis argues is becoming structurally more important for margins and earnings quality. [25]
With Wednesday’s early close and thinner liquidity, investors will likely treat any WMT move as more “signal-plus-noise” than usual. The more durable read may come from whether Walmart faces additional concrete legal/regulatory steps—or whether the story stabilizes and the market refocuses on fundamentals like retail media scale, fulfillment economics, and holiday demand trends.
This article is for informational purposes and is not investment advice.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. stockanalysis.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. news.bloomberglaw.com, 8. www.fda.gov, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.nasdaq.com, 11. www.nasdaq.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. simplywall.st, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. apnews.com, 17. www.investopedia.com, 18. www.investopedia.com, 19. www.whitehouse.gov, 20. www.sifma.org, 21. news.bloomberglaw.com, 22. www.fda.gov, 23. corporate.walmart.com, 24. news.bloomberglaw.com, 25. www.nasdaq.com
