Ticker: Warby Parker Inc (NYSE: WRBY)
Date: December 11, 2025
WRBY Stock Today: From Quiet Retail Name to AI-Driven Momentum Trade
Warby Parker Inc’s share price has surged into the spotlight this week after investors re-rated the eyewear brand as a potential artificial intelligence (AI) hardware play.
After closing at $29.44 on December 10, 2025, up about 26–27% for the day, Warby Parker was recently trading around $29.57 in midday action on December 11, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $3.4 billion. [1]
This rally follows several consecutive strong sessions. On December 9, shares jumped about 5.6% after fresh details emerged about the company’s AI glasses collaboration with Google and a bullish call from research firm Hedgeye, which labeled WRBY “the retail stock to own in 2026” and suggested the stock could potentially deliver multi-bagger returns over five years. [2]
Until this week’s breakout, Warby Parker had been a volatile but underperforming IPO story. As of earlier this week, a StockStory analysis noted the stock was down about 10% year-to-date and trading more than 20% below its then 52‑week high of $28.56. [3] The latest surge has now taken WRBY above that prior high and reset expectations around the name.
The Catalyst: Google Partnership and 2026 AI Smart Glasses Launch
The core driver of the move is Warby Parker’s push into AI-powered smart glasses, built in partnership with Google.
On December 8, Warby Parker and Alphabet’s Google confirmed that they are collaborating on lightweight AI glasses, with the first product expected to launch in 2026. The announcement, made at The Android Show | XR Edition, was the first time the companies set a public timeline for the project. [4]
Key details from the partnership:
- The glasses will run on Google’s Android XR platform and use the Gemini AI model to deliver multimodal, context-aware assistance in everyday eyewear. [5]
- Google described two device types in development:
- “AI glasses” focused on screen‑free assistance, using speakers, microphones and cameras to interact naturally with Gemini.
- “Display AI glasses” with an in‑lens display for private access to navigation, translation captions and other information. [6]
- Warby Parker emphasized a design-first approach, calling the upcoming products “lightweight and AI‑enabled,” but has not yet disclosed pricing or distribution strategy. [7]
This isn’t just a one-off experiment. Earlier in the year, Warby Parker revealed that Google had committed up to $75 million to help fund product development and commercialization, plus up to $75 million in a potential equity investment, contingent on collaboration milestones. [8]
On its Q3 call, management also disclosed it is working with Samsung alongside Google, aiming to combine Samsung’s hardware capabilities with Google’s AI and Warby Parker’s design and eyecare expertise. [9]
Taken together, the market now sees Warby Parker as a hybrid of:
- Healthcare/retail (optometry, prescription lenses, contact lenses), and
- Consumer tech (AI wearables),
with a 2026 smart glasses launch as the key narrative turning point.
Fundamentals: Q3 2025 Shows Profits and Customer Growth
While the AI story is grabbing headlines, the move is resting on improving fundamentals in the core business.
For Q3 2025 (quarter ended September 30), Warby Parker reported: [10]
- Net revenue: $221.7 million, up 15.2% year over year (an increase of $29.2 million).
- Net income: $5.9 million, an improvement of $9.9 million versus the prior‑year quarter, implying a net margin of roughly 2.7%.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $25.7 million, up $8.4 million year over year, with adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 11.6% (up 2.6 percentage points).
- Active customers: 2.66 million on a trailing 12‑month basis, up 9.3%.
- Average revenue per customer (ARPU): $320, up 4.8% year over year.
Product and channel highlights:
- Eyeglasses sales grew about 13% year over year.
- Contact lens revenue grew faster, at around 21%.
- The company ended Q3 with 313 stores (including five in Canada) and opened 15 net new locations during the quarter, including the first “shop‑in‑shops” inside select Target stores. [11]
On the balance sheet, Warby Parker closed Q3 with roughly $280 million in cash and cash equivalents, year‑to‑date operating cash flow of $87.5 million and free cash flow of $35.6 million, signaling improved cash generation even as the company continues to invest in store build‑outs and technology. [12]
Updated 2025 Guidance: Double‑Digit Growth, Margin Expansion
Alongside Q3 results, Warby Parker raised its 2025 profitability outlook and reiterated solid revenue growth. Management now expects for the full year 2025: [13]
- Net revenue: between $871 million and $874 million, implying around 13% year‑over‑year growth.
- Q4 2025 revenue: between $211 million and $214 million, representing 11–12% growth versus the prior year.
- Adjusted EBITDA margin: guidance increased to roughly 11.3–11.6% for 2025, up from prior expectations.
The company also remains on track to open about 45 new stores in 2025 (including the Target shop‑in‑shops), as it leans into an omnichannel model where physical stores support both exams and eyewear fulfillment. [14]
In other words, even before the AI glasses narrative took center stage, Warby Parker was already delivering mid‑teens revenue growth and transitioning from losses to profitability.
Wall Street View: Consensus “Buy,” but Price Targets Lag the Rally
As of December 11, 2025, analyst sentiment on WRBY is broadly constructive but increasingly constrained by valuation after the recent spike.
- MarketBeat reports that 19 analysts covering Warby Parker have an average 12‑month price target of about $24.88, with a high of $31 and a low of $20. At a recent price around $29–30, this implies downside versus the consensus target. [15]
- Benzinga’s compilation similarly shows a consensus target in the mid‑$24 range, noting that Goldman Sachs currently holds one of the highest targets at $31, while UBS is more cautious at $20. [16]
- Public.com aggregates 15 analysts and lists a consensus “Buy” rating with a 2025 price prediction around $24.33. [17]
- TradingView’s forecast page shows a price target cluster around $22–27, with a median of roughly $22.17 and a range from $18 to $27. [18]
Other research platforms are split between enthusiasm about growth and unease about valuation:
- A recent GuruFocus analysis framed Warby Parker as “poised for major growth by 2026,” citing its position in the medical devices/eyecare space and a market cap previously around $2.5 billion, with shares climbing after upbeat commentary on long‑term growth. [19]
- Another GuruFocus note highlighted that JPMorgan Chase & Co. bought an additional 2.13 million WRBY shares at $27.58 on September 30, bringing its stake to over 7.3 million shares, a sign of institutional confidence despite earlier share price weakness. [20]
In contrast, a Seeking Alpha article published late on December 10 maintained a “hold” stance. The author argued that while Warby Parker’s revenue, profits and cash flow are improving—and 2025 revenue growth is expected around the low‑teens—the stock’s valuation already prices in substantial success for the AI glasses initiative, which remains unproven. [21]
Valuation: High Multiple, Big Expectations
At roughly $29.5 per share and a market cap of about $3.36 billion, Warby Parker now trades at: [22]
- Roughly 3.9× its midpoint 2025 revenue guidance (~$872 million).
- An extremely high trailing price‑to‑earnings ratio on GAAP numbers (over 2,000×), driven by very small net income relative to market cap.
Because the company only recently reached consistent profitability, many analysts focus on price‑to‑sales and cash flow metrics rather than traditional earnings multiples. Still, the message is clear: the market is paying up for a combination of:
- Mid‑teens revenue growth in a recurring eyewear and eyecare business. [23]
- Expanding adjusted EBITDA margins. [24]
- The optionality of a successful AI smart glasses platform in 2026 and beyond. [25]
Some valuation models (such as Simply Wall St’s “narrative fair value” approach) previously suggested WRBY was modestly undervalued in the low‑$20s; after the spike into the high‑$20s, that margin of safety appears largely gone, especially if AI glasses adoption proves slower than hoped. [26]
Sentiment and Volatility: Hedgeye, Short Squeeze Talk and Retail Interest
News flow over the last few days has added fuel to the move:
- The AI partnership and 2026 timeline, confirmed by Google and Warby Parker, re‑positioned the stock as part of the AI hardware theme dominated by players like Meta and Apple. [27]
- Hedgeye’s highly bullish call—describing WRBY as a top retail idea for 2026 and hinting at multi‑bagger potential—has circulated widely among active traders. [28]
- A Trefis summary characterized the recent price action as a +21.55% move triggered by the AI glasses catalyst and suggested squeeze‑like conditions as short sellers scrambled to cover. [29]
Separately, StockStory notes that Warby Parker has experienced 28 single‑day moves larger than 5% in the last year, underlining that this is already a volatile name where news often triggers outsized reactions. [30]
Put simply, WRBY has shifted—at least temporarily—from a niche DTC eyewear stock into a momentum‑charged AI narrative that attracts both institutional and retail traders.
Strategic Picture: Beyond Glasses, Toward a Full‑Stack Vision Platform
Despite the AI buzz, Warby Parker’s long‑term strategy still rests on a familiar foundation:
- Eyecare & exams: leveraging its stores and telehealth tools for eye exams and prescriptions. [31]
- Eyewear & contacts: designer‑quality frames at mid‑range prices, plus a growing contact lens business. [32]
- Vertically integrated operations: its own labs, software and retail footprint, which management says should support faster delivery times and future AI‑glasses fulfillment. [33]
The AI glasses initiative, backed by Google’s capital and technology and Samsung’s hardware collaboration, effectively layers a new product category onto that existing retail and healthcare platform. [34]
If Warby Parker succeeds, it could evolve from a stylish eyeglasses retailer into a full‑stack vision platform: exams, prescription, frames and smart devices all under one brand.
Key Risks: Hardware Execution, Competition and Macro Sensitivity
The bullish story comes with meaningful risks:
- Unproven demand for AI smart glasses.
Previous attempts at consumer smart eyewear—from Google Glass to Snap Spectacles—have struggled to achieve mainstream adoption. Meta’s Ray‑Ban Meta smart glasses and Apple’s Vision Pro show that interest exists, but the category is still emergent. [35] - Execution risk in hardware and software.
Warby Parker is experienced in frames and lenses, not complex consumer electronics. Success will require tight integration with Google’s software and Samsung‑class hardware without sacrificing comfort, style or battery life. - Valuation compression.
With WRBY now trading well above most published price targets, any disappointment—slower glasses rollout, weaker Q4 numbers, or a reset in AI enthusiasm—could trigger a sharp pullback as multiple expansion reverses. [36] - Competitive pressure.
The company faces intense competition from legacy optical chains, online retailers and big‑box stores. In AI eyewear, it may have to compete with tech giants who control operating systems and silicon. - Macro and consumer spending.
Warby Parker is still a consumer discretionary name. A softer macro environment or pressure on middle‑class spending could slow store productivity and new store paybacks.
What to Watch Next
For investors and observers following Warby Parker stock, the key near‑term milestones include:
- Further product details on AI glasses in 2025, such as pricing, early prototypes and distribution strategy (online only vs. stores and partners). [37]
- Q4 2025 results and 2026 guidance, likely in early 2026, which will show whether double‑digit revenue growth and rising EBITDA margins are sustainable post‑holiday. [38]
- Updates from conferences and investor events, where management may share more on AI glasses economics, capital intensity and margin potential. [39]
- Institutional positioning, including any additional large stake changes from firms like JPMorgan and First Eagle Investment Management. [40]
Bottom Line
As of December 11, 2025, Warby Parker is no longer trading just on glasses and stores. The stock has been repriced as an AI‑adjacent growth story, fueled by a 2026 smart glasses launch with Google and Samsung, steadily improving profitability, and a wave of bullish commentary.
At current levels, however, the market is asking investors to pay a premium multiple for a business whose most exciting product line has not yet shipped. For long‑term investors, WRBY is now a classic high‑growth, high‑expectations story: the upside could be significant if AI eyewear goes mainstream, but the margin for error has narrowed.
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. markets.financialcontent.com, 3. markets.financialcontent.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.visionmonday.com, 9. www.visionmonday.com, 10. www.visionmonday.com, 11. www.visionmonday.com, 12. www.visionmonday.com, 13. www.visionmonday.com, 14. www.visionmonday.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.benzinga.com, 17. public.com, 18. www.tradingview.com, 19. www.gurufocus.com, 20. www.gurufocus.com, 21. seekingalpha.com, 22. www.visionmonday.com, 23. www.visionmonday.com, 24. seekingalpha.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. simplywall.st, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. markets.financialcontent.com, 29. www.trefis.com, 30. markets.financialcontent.com, 31. www.businesswire.com, 32. www.visionmonday.com, 33. www.visionmonday.com, 34. www.visionmonday.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.marketbeat.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.visionmonday.com, 39. www.stocktitan.net, 40. www.gurufocus.com
