NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 11:09 a.m. ET — Market Closed
Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (NASDAQ: WBD) — the company behind HBO, Warner Bros. studios and a portfolio of cable networks — heads into the final full week of 2025 with its stock trading less like a traditional media name and more like a live referendum on a high-stakes takeover fight.
With U.S. markets closed for the weekend, investors are left to digest a familiar but still fast-moving setup: a signed Netflix agreement that would reshape WBD’s crown-jewel assets, and a rival Paramount Skydance all-cash tender offer that has been sweetened on financing terms but not on price — at least not yet. Netflix
WBD stock price recap: where shares stand heading into the next session
WBD last traded around $28.80 after Friday’s session, down about 1.4% from the prior close, with the stock still hovering just below the $30 level that has become a psychological (and deal-related) magnet for traders. MarketBeat
The broader market backdrop matters here because light holiday volume can exaggerate stock moves. Wall Street’s post-Christmas session on Friday (Dec. 26) was notably quiet, with major indexes drifting slightly lower amid thin trading — the kind of environment where headline risk can carry extra weight for a deal-driven name like WBD. Reuters
The center of gravity: Netflix’s deal vs. Paramount Skydance’s tender offer
Netflix agreement: $27.75 per share (cash + stock) plus a planned networks separation
Netflix has announced a definitive deal under which it would acquire WBD’s film and television studios and the HBO/HBO Max business in a cash-and-stock transaction valued at $27.75 per WBD share, and Netflix has pointed investors to incremental value from the planned separation of WBD’s Global Linear Networks business (“Discovery Global”), targeted for Q3 2026. Netflix
WBD’s board has publicly framed Netflix’s package as more certain and structured to deliver $23.25 in cash + $4.50 in Netflix stock (with a collar), alongside whatever value shareholders receive from the Discovery Global separation. Warner Bros. Discovery Investors
Paramount Skydance: $30 per share all-cash — now with a Larry Ellison personal guarantee
Paramount Skydance is pursuing an all-cash offer at $30.00 per share for all of WBD — and in late December it intensified pressure by bolstering the credibility of its financing.
Reuters reported that Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison stepped in with a personal guarantee of $40.4 billion supporting the bid, and that Paramount also increased its regulatory reverse termination fee and extended the tender’s timing. Reuters
Crucially for investors watching the calendar: a Paramount tender-offer amendment filed with the SEC states the offer’s expiration was extended from Jan. 8, 2026 to 5:00 p.m. New York City time on Jan. 21, 2026, and the filing also disclosed that, as of Dec. 19, about 397,252 shares had been validly tendered and not withdrawn. SEC
What the latest deal commentary says about “the real math” in WBD shares
With WBD trading near $29, the market is effectively pricing a blend of scenarios:
- Scenario A: Netflix closes (with WBD holders receiving the cash/stock consideration and then shares tied to the Discovery Global separation).
- Scenario B: Paramount wins (with a straight $30 cash outcome, but only if the bid holds, clears process hurdles, and ultimately closes).
- Scenario C: a higher bid / revised terms emerge (often the catalyst that keeps merger-arb premiums sticky).
- Scenario D: deal break / regulatory derailment (a tail risk that can widen spreads quickly).
Reuters’ reporting captures the tension well: WBD’s board is sticking with Netflix for financing certainty, while some shareholders remain open to Paramount — but want a bigger incentive to switch tracks.
Harris Associates’ Harris Oakmark (identified by Reuters as WBD’s fifth-largest shareholder) said the amended Paramount offer was still not enough. Portfolio manager Alex Fitch wrote in an email to Reuters: “necessary, but not sufficient,” adding that if Paramount is serious, “they’re going to need to provide a greater incentive.” Reuters
Reuters also quoted Seth Shafer, a principal analyst at S&P Global, expressing skepticism that the financing tweaks alone would move many fence-sitters. Reuters
The last 24–48 hours: what’s actually new heading into Monday
Because it’s a holiday stretch, the freshest updates have skewed toward trading/positioning coverage and incremental deal chatter rather than brand-new corporate actions. Here are the notable developments circulating in the last one to two days:
- Premarket pressure tied to bid-dispute headlines: An Investing.com item published Friday morning reported WBD shares slipped in premarket trading after a New York Post report suggested Paramount Skydance might consider walking away and pursuing litigation over process concerns. (This is reported, not confirmed, and should be treated as headline risk rather than a settled outcome.) Investing
- Analyst roundup and consensus framing: A MarketBeat report dated Dec. 27 summarized Street ratings as “Moderate Buy” and cited a consensus 1-year price target around $23.22 (notably below the current trading level). MarketBeat
- Ownership/filing-driven positioning: MarketBeat also highlighted a disclosed stake reduction by West Tower Group LLC, a reminder that — despite the takeover narrative — institutional rebalancing and risk management can still affect flows into year-end. MarketBeat
- Macro context remains supportive but thin: Reuters characterized Friday’s broader market session as subdued post-holiday trading — a setup where single-stock catalysts can dominate attention. Reuters
Forecasts and targets: why “price target” screens may mislead in a takeover tape
A key weekend takeaway for investors: conventional analyst price targets can look “wrong” during takeover situations, because many targets are based on standalone fundamentals and long-run business execution — not a near-term binary (or multi-path) M&A probability tree.
Two widely circulated snapshots illustrate the gap:
- MarketBeat lists a consensus price target of ~$23.22 (about -19% implied downside versus ~$28.80). MarketBeat
- A Nasdaq-hosted Fintel piece said the average one-year price target was revised to $27.78, with a range cited from $20.20 to $36.75, emphasizing the dispersion that tends to appear when deal rumors and restructuring outcomes dominate the narrative. Nasdaq
In other words: in “normal” markets, the target-versus-price spread is a valuation signal. In merger-arbitrage mode, that spread can simply indicate that the stock price is being pulled by deal odds and headline velocity.
Fundamentals still matter — especially for the downside case
Even in a deal market, fundamentals are not irrelevant; they often define what happens to the stock if M&A breaks down or drags out.
In its Q3 2025 shareholder letter, WBD pointed to:
- $701 million of third-quarter free cash flow (including separation-related cash costs),
- $1.2 billion of debt repayment (including $1.0 billion of a bridge loan facility), and
- net leverage ending the quarter at 3.3x. Q4 Capital
That same shareholder letter emphasized that the company’s separation plan remained on track toward mid-2026 while the board evaluated strategic alternatives — context that helps explain why the market can treat WBD as both an operating turnaround and an M&A target at the same time. Q4 Capital
On the streaming side, WBD reported reaching 128 million global streaming subscribers after adding 2.3 million net subscribers in the quarter — a datapoint analysts have used to argue that the company’s assets are “strategic” even as linear TV remains structurally challenged. Q4 Capital
What investors should watch before Monday’s opening bell
Because the market is closed today, the practical question becomes: what could change sentiment before Monday’s open — and what should traders have on their screens when premarket liquidity returns?
1) Any new SEC filings or updated tender-offer metrics
The Paramount tender offer now runs to Jan. 21, 2026 at 5:00 p.m. ET, and prior amendments disclosed tendered-share counts as of Dec. 19. If additional amendments update tender totals, conditions, or timing, that can move the arbitrage spread quickly. SEC
2) Whether either side changes the economic terms
So far, Paramount has improved financing certainty (Ellison’s guarantee) and deal protections (including the reverse termination fee), but has not raised the $30 price. Reuters’ reporting suggests at least some large holders want more to switch away from Netflix. Reuters
3) Regulatory signals — and the market’s probability weighting
Both paths face scrutiny risks. Reuters has highlighted the antitrust and political sensitivity around media consolidation for either combination. That matters because the “spread” in WBD can widen if investors think closing timelines extend or approval odds drop. Reuters
4) Holiday liquidity and the “headline gap” risk
With Friday described as a thin, post-holiday session by major outlets, Monday’s open can bring sharper repricing if new weekend reporting hits the tape. Reuters
Bottom line for WBD stock this weekend
WBD enters the next session pinned between two visible poles: Netflix’s $27.75 per share deal framework plus the planned Discovery Global separation, and Paramount Skydance’s $30 all-cash bid now backed by a headline-grabbing Ellison guarantee and a later tender deadline.
Until investors get clarity on (1) whether Paramount improves economics, (2) whether WBD’s board shifts its recommendation, or (3) whether regulators send early signals, WBD is likely to keep trading as a deal-driven battleground where every filing, quote, and rumor can matter as much as quarterly performance. Reuters
