Updated Friday, Dec. 12, 2025 (U.S. market close): Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. Series A common stock (NASDAQ: WBD) finished at $29.98, closing just under the $30.00-per-share all-cash tender offer launched by Paramount Skydance earlier this week. [1]
WBD shares have become a headline-driven “deal stock,” with price action now dominated less by traditional quarterly fundamentals and more by merger-arbitrage math: Which offer wins, what regulators do, and how long it takes. That dynamic is likely to continue into the week ahead as investors watch for board filings, bidder responses, and any signals from Washington that could reshape the probability of closing.
WBD stock price today: Where Warner Bros. Discovery closed on Dec. 12, 2025
WBD ended Friday at $29.98, up 1.66% on the session, after trading between roughly $29.75 and $30.00. [2]
Here’s why that close matters:
- Paramount Skydance’s hostile tender offer is $30.00 in cash per share. [3]
- Netflix’s agreed transaction value is $27.75 per WBD share (cash + stock, subject to a collar) for WBD’s studios and streaming assets, with a separate spin-off of WBD’s Global Networks business planned ahead of closing. [4]
With WBD trading within pennies of Paramount’s $30, the market is signaling that investors currently assign a high probability to Paramount’s bid being taken seriously—either as the winning deal or as leverage that forces improved terms from Netflix.
What moved WBD stock this week: A takeover battle in fast motion
1) Netflix and WBD announce a definitive agreement (Dec. 5)
Netflix and Warner Bros. Discovery announced a definitive agreement under which Netflix would acquire Warner Bros., including the film and TV studios, HBO Max and HBO, valuing the transaction at $27.75 per share and about $82.7 billion enterprise value (about $72.0 billion equity value). [5]
A crucial structural point for investors: Netflix said the deal is expected to close after the previously announced separation of WBD’s Global Networks division into a new public company (“Discovery Global”), now expected to be completed in Q3 2026. [6]
2) Paramount Skydance launches a hostile all-cash offer for all of WBD (Dec. 8)
Paramount Skydance then escalated the situation by commencing an unsolicited tender offer for all outstanding WBD shares at $30.00 per share in cash, explicitly targeting the entire company (including Global Networks). [7]
WBD confirmed receipt of the tender offer and said its board would review it consistent with fiduciary duties and the existing Netflix agreement, while advising shareholders not to take any action yet. [8]
3) Legal and regulatory pressure builds (Dec. 9–Dec. 12)
A consumer lawsuit seeking to block Netflix’s acquisition of WBD’s studio and streaming businesses was filed in federal court, adding another moving piece to the closing-risk narrative. [9]
Regulatory scrutiny has also become a central part of the daily news cycle, with antitrust experts warning that either a Netflix or Paramount tie-up could face a lengthy review process (potentially months to more than a year, depending on scope and jurisdiction). [10]
WBD’s weekly performance: How big was the move?
From Monday, Dec. 8 ($27.23 close) to Friday, Dec. 12 ($29.98 close), WBD gained about 10.1%—and the rally came on heavy trading volumes that look consistent with merger-arbitrage funds and event-driven traders repositioning. [11]
Volumes this week also underscored how “event-driven” WBD has become:
- Dec. 8 volume: about 167 million shares
- Dec. 9 volume: about 107 million shares
- Dec. 10 volume: about 104 million shares [12]
For context, those are multiples of what WBD often trades in quieter periods—one more sign that fundamentals are temporarily in the passenger seat.
Why WBD is trading near $30: Merger-arbitrage logic in plain English
When a company is in play, the stock often trades below the best bid, reflecting:
- the time value of money (cash later isn’t cash today),
- the risk of regulatory blockage,
- financing/closing conditions, and
- the risk that the bid is revised or withdrawn.
On Dec. 12, WBD closed at $29.98, just $0.02 below Paramount’s $30.00 offer. [13]
That tiny discount suggests traders currently believe Paramount’s bid is:
- credible enough to anchor the price, and
- close enough (in timing/probability) that the “spread” has largely been arbitraged away—at least for now.
At the same time, WBD also closed well above Netflix’s stated $27.75 per-share value, reinforcing the idea that the market is not pricing Netflix’s proposal as the only realistic endpoint. [14]
The biggest risk factor: Antitrust and political scrutiny
Netflix’s “we compete with YouTube” argument is being questioned
In a Reuters analysis published Friday (Dec. 12), antitrust experts expressed skepticism that regulators will accept Netflix’s framing that it needs WBD to compete with YouTube, noting that YouTube’s user-generated, ad-driven model differs materially from subscription streaming. [15]
Reuters also reported that the Netflix-WBD deal would face scrutiny from U.S. and global regulators because of its scale, with Netflix arguing the transaction could enable bundling and consumer savings—claims regulators may treat cautiously. [16]
Paramount’s bid brings its own complexities (including foreign financing questions)
AP reported that Paramount Skydance disclosed in an SEC filing that Tencent withdrew a $1 billion financing piece to avoid potential national security scrutiny, and that certain foreign backers agreed to give up governance rights to reduce regulatory friction. [17]
Timing uncertainty remains the market’s silent “volatility engine”
ABC News reported that any acquisition of WBD would likely face U.S. review and could take several months to more than a year, depending on how the market is defined and which competitive harms regulators prioritize. [18]
Bottom line: Even a $30 cash bid is not “risk-free” if the closing path becomes long, heavily conditioned, or politically unpredictable.
Analyst forecasts for WBD stock: What to do with price targets during a bidding war
Traditional Wall Street price targets can become misleading during a takeover battle because many targets are set assuming the company remains standalone.
As of this week, Yahoo Finance’s research summary shows analyst targets for WBD ranging from roughly $15 (low) to about $35 (high), with an average around the mid‑$20s—levels that look “behind” the current market price near $30, likely because the stock has repriced rapidly on deal news. [19]
One notable nuance: some analyst commentary in the last several days has focused less on long-term EBITDA arcs and more on deal certainty and regulatory probability—the variables that now matter most for near-term price discovery. [20]
Practical interpretation for readers:
- If you rely on analyst targets right now, treat them as standalone valuation anchors, not as the “answer” for where the stock trades next week.
- In the short run, the more useful “forecast” is scenario-based: $30 cash closes, Netflix improves terms, a third bidder emerges, or deals get bogged down and the stock reprices lower.
Technical snapshot: Strong momentum, but “overbought” warnings are flashing
With WBD pushing to new highs on deal headlines, some technical dashboards show momentum as very strong while also flagging overbought conditions (for example, RSI readings above the mid‑80s are commonly interpreted as stretched). [21]
In plain terms: the trend is up, but the stock is vulnerable to sharp pullbacks if a headline changes perceived deal odds (e.g., regulatory pushback, bidder silence, or a filing that adds conditions).
Week-ahead outlook: What to watch next for WBD stock
The week ahead is likely to be dominated by process and paperwork—and, in takeover situations, that’s where surprises often hide.
1) WBD board response timeline (key window)
WBD has said it intends to advise shareholders of its recommendation on Paramount’s tender offer within 10 business days. [22]
That puts the formal response window squarely in the near term, and traders will react to:
- any change in tone,
- any “fiduciary out” language, and
- any indication the board is negotiating improved terms.
2) Will Netflix respond with sweeter economics or clearer structure?
Netflix’s current headline value is $27.75 per share (with a collar), and the market is trading above that. [23]
So the market is implicitly asking Netflix to do at least one of the following:
- raise the value,
- raise the cash portion,
- tighten the timeline / conditions, or
- strengthen the regulatory narrative.
3) Regulatory headlines and lawsuits can move the stock intraday
The consumer class action seeking to block the Netflix deal is a reminder that deal risk isn’t limited to DOJ/FTC review. [24]
In the coming week, watch for:
- additional litigation,
- political statements (which can influence market perception even if they don’t determine the outcome), and
- any signals about how regulators may define the relevant market. [25]
4) Near-term trading levels are now “deal-defined”
For many traders, the immediate reference points are straightforward:
- ~$30: Paramount’s cash bid ceiling (unless raised). [26]
- $27.75: Netflix’s announced per-share value (subject to collar and structure). [27]
- Any move materially above $30 would likely imply expectations of a higher bid or a new entrant.
The takeaway: WBD is now priced like a deal, not a media company
As of the Dec. 12 close, Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) is trading as a high-profile merger-arbitrage battleground: the stock is hovering around $30 because markets see a credible path to that cash outcome—but the path is still littered with regulatory, legal, and timing risks. [28]
For next week, the most important “forecast” isn’t a moving average or an EPS estimate—it’s the evolving probability that:
- Paramount’s $30 tender succeeds,
- Netflix improves terms to stay in control, or
- regulators (or courts) slow everything down enough to reprice risk. [29]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.prnewswire.com, 4. ir.netflix.net, 5. ir.netflix.net, 6. ir.netflix.net, 7. www.prnewswire.com, 8. ir.wbd.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. abcnews.go.com, 11. stockanalysis.com, 12. stockanalysis.com, 13. stockanalysis.com, 14. ir.netflix.net, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. apnews.com, 18. abcnews.go.com, 19. finance.yahoo.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.tipranks.com, 22. ir.wbd.com, 23. ir.netflix.net, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.prnewswire.com, 27. ir.netflix.net, 28. stockanalysis.com, 29. ir.netflix.net
