Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. Series A common stock (NASDAQ: WBD) is trading in a rare kind of market—one where headlines are the primary catalyst and traditional valuation models temporarily take a back seat.
As of Monday, December 15, 2025, WBD shares are hovering around $29.76, after trading between roughly $29.53 and $30.00 intraday. That price level is meaningful: it sits above Netflix’s agreed $27.75-per-share deal value (signaling investors are pricing in a better outcome than Netflix’s current terms), yet just below the $30 all-cash figure tied to Paramount Skydance’s hostile push (reflecting the market’s discount for risk, timing, and regulatory uncertainty). [1]
Below is everything investors are watching right now—today’s news (Dec. 15), the live bidding-war dynamics, and the latest forecasts and analysis shaping WBD stock.
What’s new for WBD stock on Dec. 15: Netflix reiterates it’s not backing off
The biggest WBD-stock headline today is Netflix’s message that it has not changed its position on acquiring major parts of Warner Bros. Discovery—even after Paramount Skydance escalated the fight with a hostile bid.
In a letter to employees referenced by Reuters, Netflix co-CEOs Greg Peters and Ted Sarandos said the company remains committed to the transaction and emphasized something Hollywood has been laser-focused on: Netflix says it will keep Warner Bros. movies in theaters and that theatrical releases will become part of Netflix’s business once the deal closes. [2]
That same memo also makes Netflix’s regulatory argument explicit. Netflix is essentially framing the acquisition as necessary to compete with the scale of YouTube, while acknowledging scrutiny is likely. Reuters notes that attorneys are skeptical regulators will treat Netflix and YouTube as interchangeable competitors because of their different business models and audiences. [3]
CBS News similarly reports Netflix’s leadership pledged continued theatrical releases and pointed out the deal has drawn political criticism, including from Sen. Elizabeth Warren. [4]
TheWrap’s coverage adds additional context from the memo, including Netflix’s insistence that the deal is “about growth,” that it won’t result in studio closures, and that Netflix remains confident on regulatory approval—even while acknowledging the rival bid. [5]
Why this matters for WBD stock today:
This kind of reaffirmation helps keep the “floor” under WBD shares by signaling the Netflix bid is still real, still public, and still being defended—rather than quietly weakening under pressure.
Quick recap: How Warner Bros. Discovery became the center of a streaming mega-bidding war
To understand why WBD is trading like a deal-arbitrage situation rather than a traditional media stock, the timeline matters:
1) WBD put strategic options on the table
Reuters reported that in October 2025, Warner Bros. Discovery said it was exploring its options, setting the stage for serious bids. [6]
2) By late November, bidders were lining up
Reuters reported WBD received preliminary buyout bids from Paramount Skydance, Comcast, and Netflix, and WBD sought improved bids by early December. The stock had already surged dramatically on the speculation. [7]
3) Early December: Netflix secures the board’s support for a deal
On Dec. 5, Reuters reported Netflix agreed to acquire WBD’s TV/film studios and streaming assets in a transaction valuing the acquired business at $27.75 per WBD share, about $72 billion in equity value and roughly $82.7 billion including debt. [8]
Importantly: the deal is structured to close after WBD spins off its global networks into a separate listed company called Discovery Global, now expected in Q3 2026, with the full transaction expected to close in roughly 12–18 months. [9]
4) Paramount goes hostile with an all-cash push
Reuters reported Paramount took its offer directly to shareholders and characterized its $30-per-share offer as “not best and final,” indicating it could go higher. Reuters also noted the tender offer mechanics (open for 20 business days, with WBD having a response window). [10]
5) Dec. 15: Netflix tries to stabilize the narrative
Today’s letter is Netflix’s attempt to reassure employees, creators, and—indirectly—investors that the company is committed and prepared to navigate scrutiny. [11]
The numbers investors are anchoring to: $27.75 vs. $30 (and why WBD trades between them)
In “normal” times, WBD would trade on earnings, subscriber trends, advertising, and debt reduction. Today, the stock is largely trading on deal probabilities.
Netflix deal value: $27.75 per share (cash + stock)
According to Reuters and the PRNewswire deal announcement, the Netflix transaction values WBD at $27.75 per share, comprised of $23.25 in cash and roughly $4.50 in Netflix stock (subject to a collar). [12]
Reuters also reported additional deal terms investors focus on:
- expected $2–$3 billion in annual cost savings by year three after closing [13]
- a $5.8 billion breakup fee Netflix would pay WBD if the deal collapses, and $2.8 billion the other way if it fails under certain conditions [14]
Paramount’s figure: $30 per share all-cash (hostile tender offer)
Reuters reported Paramount’s $30-per-share hostile move and described how Paramount is trying to persuade shareholders that an all-cash path is superior, while signaling it could raise the bid. [15]
Why WBD is near $30 (but not locked at $30)
If a $30 all-cash outcome were guaranteed and imminent, WBD would likely trade extremely close to $30. It isn’t—because markets are pricing in:
- the chance Paramount doesn’t succeed (board resistance, shareholder dynamics, financing structure, timing) [16]
- the chance Netflix raises or sweetens terms (or wins without raising, if Paramount fails) [17]
- the chance regulators intervene—a risk called out by Reuters, CBS, and multiple analysts [18]
Business Insider captured the core market logic: if WBD stock rises decisively above Netflix’s $27.75 valuation, it can be interpreted as investors expecting Paramount to win or Netflix to improve its bid—while any discount can reflect regulatory and timing risk. [19]
Fundamentals still matter: WBD’s operating backdrop behind the deal tape
Even in an M&A-driven market, investors still care about what WBD looks like as a business—because the underlying fundamentals influence:
- how hard WBD’s board negotiates,
- how regulators view the asset mix,
- and what the “standalone” stock might look like if deals break.
In its most recent reported quarter (September quarter), Reuters reported WBD posted a loss of 6 cents per share, worse than expected, and total revenue fell year-over-year. But Reuters also highlighted that the studio segment delivered a strong quarter (with studio revenue up materially), while the legacy cable unit continued to slump amid cord-cutting. [20]
This split performance is a big reason the company’s planned separation of businesses (Streaming & Studios vs. Global Networks) became so central—and why bidders are targeting different pieces of WBD. [21]
Analyst forecasts and Wall Street targets as of Dec. 15, 2025: useful—but distorted by the bidding war
Here’s the key issue with “classic” price targets right now: most analyst targets were built for a world where WBD trades on operations, not on competing takeover offers.
The broad consensus target is below today’s price
MarketBeat lists a consensus price target around $22.58 (with a wide range of targets), which implies downside from current levels. [22]
Interpretation: That doesn’t necessarily mean analysts “think WBD is overvalued today.” It often means those targets were set using longer-term assumptions and may not be updated fast enough to reflect a live bidding situation.
A deal-specific framework: Deutsche Bank’s $29.50 target
One of the more directly deal-driven notes came from Deutsche Bank (via Investing.com). The bank raised its price target to $29.50 after the Netflix acquisition announcement, explicitly describing a sum-of-the-parts approach: assigning value to the spun-out Global Networks business (Discovery Global) and using the Netflix purchase price for Streaming & Studios, then discounting for time-to-close. [23]
Why that matters today (Dec. 15): When a stock is trading around $29.76, a $29.50 target suggests the market is already pricing in a relatively favorable outcome—leaving less “easy” upside unless a higher bid emerges. [24]
Technical analysis and short-term forecasts dated around Dec. 15
When a stock is moving on deal news, technical indicators can still matter—mostly because they reflect positioning, momentum, and potential exhaustion.
Technical signals: mixed momentum readings
Investing.com’s technical snapshot shows WBD in a “Strong Buy” posture on daily signals, with an RSI figure that indicates momentum but can also hint at overheating depending on the exact reading used. [25]
Separately, TipRanks’ technical dashboard shows a much hotter RSI reading (overbought territory) and mixed indicator interpretation—illustrating how different calculation windows can produce different “temperature checks.” [26]
Algorithmic price forecasts: bullish near-term, contradictory longer-term
CoinCodex’s data (updated Dec. 15) projects a short-term path that peaks above $31 later this week, while also showing a sharply different longer-term projection. Treat this as highly speculative modeling rather than “Wall Street guidance.” [27]
StockInvest, updated after Friday’s close, flags WBD as a high-volatility setup and outlines projected daily movement ranges and support levels—but again, in a deal tape, sudden news can overwhelm any model. [28]
Practical takeaway: Technicals can help explain why the stock is choppy around $30, but the next decisive move is more likely to come from a filing, a bid change, or a regulatory signal than from a moving average crossover.
The biggest risks hanging over WBD stock right now
1) Regulatory uncertainty is real—and being debated in public
Reuters reports Netflix expects scrutiny and is building its case around broader competition (including YouTube), while attorneys argue regulators may not accept that framing. [29]
CBS News notes analysts at MoffettNathanson expect U.S. and European regulators to focus not just on subscriber market share, but also on the importance of content production power in Hollywood. [30]
2) A bidding war can lift the stock—and still punish investors who buy too late
In M&A situations, late-stage upside depends on:
- whether there’s a credible path to a higher bid,
- whether the board and shareholders support it,
- and whether the timeline compresses (or stretches).
If a bid fails, the stock can “gap down” toward a standalone valuation baseline—especially in a sector still navigating cord-cutting and streaming profitability tradeoffs. [31]
3) Deal structure complexity: the spin-off is not a footnote
Both Reuters and the PRNewswire release make clear the Netflix deal is tied to the separation of Discovery Global and is expected to close after that. [32]
That adds execution risk and timing risk—two things markets typically discount.
What to watch next: the near-term calendar that could move WBD shares
If you’re following WBD stock this week, these are the most market-moving “checkpoints”:
- Board and bidder communications: Paramount’s approach to shareholders and any response from WBD’s board can shift perceived probability. [33]
- Any bid revision: If Netflix raises terms or Paramount sweetens beyond $30, WBD could reprice quickly. [34]
- Regulatory tone: Any signals from U.S. or EU regulators (or credible reporting about likely challenges) could widen or narrow the deal discount. [35]
- Tender offer mechanics and deadlines: These can become “hard catalysts” that pull the stock toward one outcome or force clarity. [36]
Bottom line for Dec. 15, 2025: WBD is trading like a referendum on deal outcomes
On December 15, WBD stock is less about quarterly KPIs and more about answering one question:
Which path is more likely—Netflix closing its $27.75-per-share transaction after the spin, or Paramount successfully forcing through an all-cash $30-per-share hostile bid (or triggering an even higher offer)? [37]
Netflix’s memo today is designed to steady confidence, emphasize theatrical commitments, and argue the deal is pro-competition—while the market continues to price WBD near $30 because the situation remains fluid. [38]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.cbsnews.com, 5. www.thewrap.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.businessinsider.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.tipranks.com, 27. coincodex.com, 28. stockinvest.us, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.cbsnews.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.reuters.com
