Westpac (ASX: WBC) Share Price Today: Dividend Payment Nears as Westpac Shifts Its RBA Forecast to a 2026 Hold

Westpac Banking Corporation shares were trading around A$38.26 on 18 December 2025, with the stock moving in a day range of roughly A$38.13 to A$38.55 and sitting within a 52‑week range of about A$28.44 to A$41.00. ^[1]

That price action lands Westpac stock in a very “late‑cycle banking” mood: investors are balancing the near-term appeal of dividends with the longer-term question of what interest rates (and mortgage competition) do to bank margins in 2026. In the past 24 hours, Westpac’s own economics team has materially changed its view on where the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is heading—an update that matters to bank valuations because rate expectations ripple through funding costs, loan pricing, bad-debt risk, and sentiment. ^[2]

Below is a round-up of the key news, forecasts, and analysis relevant to Westpac stock as of 18.12.2025, with the most market-sensitive updates at the top.

Westpac share price on 18 December 2025: what the market is signaling

At ~A$38.255, Westpac’s market snapshot looks like this:

Previous close: ~A$38.45
Day range: ~A$38.13–A$38.55
52‑week range: ~A$28.44–A$41.00
Indicated dividend yield (market data view): ~3.98%
Market cap (market data view): ~A$130.33 billion ^[3]

Those numbers tell a simple story: Westpac stock is not cheap relative to where it traded earlier in the year, but it’s also not pricing in a crisis—it’s pricing in a competitive, rate-sensitive grind where execution (cost control, customer growth, tech resilience) matters.

Dividend update: Westpac’s final 2025 dividend is due 19 December

For many investors, December is “bank dividend season”—and Westpac’s calendar is front and centre right now.

Westpac has confirmed its 2025 final ordinary dividend of 77 cents per share, which was announced 3 November 2025 and is scheduled to be paid on 19 December 2025. The dividend is 100% franked at a 30% company tax rate, with New Zealand imputation credits of NZD 6 cents per share attached. ^[4]

A key nuance: Westpac’s own shareholder calendar lists the ex‑dividend date as 6 November 2025 and the record date as 7 November 2025—so the entitlement was locked in weeks ago. The “payment date” is still important for cash flow, but it typically doesn’t change who receives the dividend. ^[5]

Westpac’s dividend payment history also lists a DRP-related issue price of A$38.09 alongside the 19/12/2025 entry, and confirms the same 77c amount and franking status. ^[6]

Why dividend details can move the stock anyway:
Even after the ex‑dividend date, the market still reprices banks based on (1) whether dividends look sustainable, (2) whether buybacks are likely, and (3) whether the outlook for earnings per share supports future payouts. In other words, the dividend is “done,” but the dividend story never really ends.

Biggest new catalyst: Westpac flips its RBA call to “on hold through 2026”

The most consequential “fresh” development for Westpac stock watchers this week is that Westpac Economics has revised its RBA cash-rate outlook to an extended hold for all of 2026.

In its Westpac IQ commentary dated 17 December 2025, Westpac’s economics team says it has pushed rate cuts out beyond 2026, arguing that inflation should moderate in 2026 but not soon enough to bring the RBA to cut on the previously expected schedule. It also flags risks on both sides (cuts could return if the labour market weakens sharply; a near-term hike is possible but viewed as less likely). ^[7]

On 18 December 2025, Canstar reported the same shift in plainer terms: Westpac has updated its cash rate forecast and now expects the RBA to keep the cash rate on hold at 3.60% “for the foreseeable future,” after previously forecasting two cuts in May and August 2026 (while leaving the door open to potential cuts in early 2027). ^[8]

Canstar also published a handy comparison of big-bank calls, showing just how split the major institutions are going into 2026—ranging from hike forecasts (CBA, NAB) to no change (Westpac, ANZ), at least in that table snapshot. ^[9]

What this means for Westpac shares

For a bank, “rates on hold” can be a double-edged sword:

Pro: Stability can reduce credit stress and keep arrears contained—helpful for bad-debt outcomes.
Con: If competition stays intense, banks may struggle to expand margins when rates aren’t moving and everyone is fighting for the same mortgage customer.

So the market’s question becomes: does a long hold mean predictable earnings, or does it mean margin pressure with no easy escape hatch?

Mortgage pricing is still shifting: Westpac has lifted fixed rates recently

Even as the RBA held the cash rate steady earlier in December, Westpac has been active on the pricing front. A recent report noted Westpac raised fixed home loan rates (its second lift in just over a month at the time), pushing its lowest fixed rate to around 5.49%, amid broader lender repricing and discussion of potential future RBA hikes. ^[10]

This matters for Westpac stock because mortgage repricing is one of the fastest ways banks react to changes in funding costs, demand, and competitive behaviour—often well before the central bank moves.

New Zealand developments: capital rules and growth are moving targets

Westpac is not “just Australia”—its New Zealand exposure can meaningfully affect earnings and capital planning.

1) New Zealand capital requirements are being eased (but not fully)

Reuters reported that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will lower some capital requirements following a review of rules introduced in 2019. Under the new settings, the four large Australian-owned banks operating in NZ (including Westpac) would see CET1 requirements reduced to 12% from 16%, while tier 2 requirements rise to 3% from 2% and an internal loss absorbing capacity requirement of 6% is added. Full implementation is still not expected until 2028, with more detail due in February 2026. ^[11]

Investors typically read this as mildly supportive over time: lower required high-quality capital can reduce funding costs and/or free up capacity—though the overall framework remains conservative.

2) New Zealand GDP surprised on the upside

In another Reuters update dated 18 December 2025, New Zealand’s economy returned to growth with Q3 GDP up 1.1% quarter-on-quarter. Reuters also reported that Westpac economists cautioned market pricing for future tightening may be ahead of the RBNZ, suggesting less need for significant tightening bets in 2026. ^[12]

Macro growth surprises feed into bank valuations through loan demand, credit quality, and confidence—particularly when a banking system is dominated by the Australian majors.

Governance, reputation and operational risk: AGM backlash and scam costs

Westpac stock isn’t only a rates story. It’s also a governance and “risk-cost” story.

Reuters reported that at Westpac’s annual meeting, director Peter Nash was re-elected but faced a large protest vote—about 40% of shareholders voted against his reappointment, amid criticism of his ties to the Australian Securities Exchange during a period of operational failures and scrutiny. Reuters also noted climate protests outside the meeting, and highlighted CEO Anthony Miller’s push for stronger action by social media firms to curb scams. ^[13]

On scams specifically, Reuters reported Miller said Westpac had spent more than A$500 million over the past five years on scam and fraud prevention. That kind of spend is strategically necessary—but investors will still ask: does it (1) reduce losses and churn, and (2) avoid future regulatory pain, enough to justify the cost? ^[14]

Analyst forecasts for Westpac stock: “Sell” consensus, wide target range

No two analysts value a bank the same way—because small changes in margin assumptions and loss rates can swing models hard. Still, the consensus picture is useful as a temperature check.

Investing.com’s consensus snapshot currently shows:

Overall rating:Sell
Analyst split: 0 Buy / 5 Hold / 8 Sell
Average 12‑month target:A$33.859 (about ‑11.49% downside from the referenced price)
High target:A$40
Low target:A$30.5
The summary notes the data is based on a poll of the past 3 months. ^[15]

The same dataset also lists recent broker actions and targets (examples shown on the page include Citi, UBS, JPMorgan, CLSA with “Hold” ratings and various targets, mostly dated early November 2025). ^[16]

How to read this without fooling yourself

A “Sell” consensus doesn’t automatically mean “Westpac must fall.” It usually means analysts think the stock is fully valued relative to expected earnings, especially when the share price is closer to the top of its 52‑week range. The targets also show disagreement: some models say Westpac is near fair value; others see meaningful downside.

The next major dates and what investors will watch

Westpac’s official investor calendar flags these upcoming milestones:

Final dividend payable: 19 December 2025
First Quarter Results announcement: 13 February 2026 ^[17]

Heading into those Q1 results, the market typically focuses on a familiar “big four” checklist:

Net interest margin direction (especially in mortgages and deposits)
Mortgage market share vs pricing discipline (winning customers without “buying” growth at uneconomic rates)
Credit quality (arrears, hardship trends, and provisioning)
Cost control vs transformation spend (tech investment without endless overruns)
Capital management (dividend sustainability, buybacks, and buffers)

Bottom line: Westpac shares are stable, but the 2026 debate just got sharper

On 18 December 2025, Westpac stock is trading around A$38.26—a level that reflects a bank with a strong franchise and dividend appeal, but also one facing persistent mortgage competition and an interest-rate outlook that’s getting murkier, not clearer. ^[18]

The most “new” development investors are digesting is Westpac’s shift to a “rates on hold through 2026” base case—an update that can subtly reframe everything from loan growth expectations to margin assumptions. ^[19]

Meanwhile, the broader narrative remains intact: Westpac’s valuation will likely keep oscillating around (1) rate expectations, (2) competitive intensity in home lending, (3) regulatory and operational risk management (including scams), and (4) how its Australia–New Zealand footprint performs as both economies evolve. ^[20]