Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX: WBC) enters 4 December 2025 as a classic “quality but not obviously cheap” income stock: its share price is hovering around A$37.3–37.4, close to the upper end of its 12‑month range, after a strong double‑digit run this year. Intelligent Investor
A new dividend and DRP update filed on 3 December, ongoing governance scrutiny ahead of next week’s AGM, and a still‑cautious analyst consensus all shape the risk‑reward profile for investors watching WBC today. Australian Securities Exchange
Where the Westpac share price stands on 4 December 2025
Recent market data show Westpac trading a little above A$37 per share today; Investing.com quotes A$37.36–37.40, while other Australian data providers cluster around the same level. Investing
Key share‑price context:
- 52‑week low: about A$29.17 in April 2025
- Recent high: around A$41.00 in the past year Intelligent Investor
- YTD performance: roughly 27% gain in 2025, comfortably ahead of the S&P/ASX 200 and the broader financials sector TS2 Tech
- Market capitalisation: around A$128 billion, keeping Westpac firmly in the ASX 20 heavyweight club Intelligent Investor
On trailing numbers, and using the FY25 ordinary dividend of A$1.53 per share against a price near A$37.4, Westpac offers a cash dividend yield of ~4.1%, or closer to 6% on a grossed‑up basis for Australian investors who can fully use franking credits. TS2 Tech
Fundamental valuation metrics based on recent data:
- Earnings per share (EPS, last 12 months): ~A$1.99
- Price/earnings (P/E): about 18–19x
- Book value per share: ~A$21.3 → P/B around 1.7–1.8x TS2 Tech
That places WBC on a clear premium to many global banks and slightly above some domestic peers, which is exactly why so many analysts now describe it as high‑quality but fully priced.
FY25 results: resilient profit, strong capital, but rising costs
Westpac released its full‑year 2025 results on 3 November for the year to 30 September 2025. Westpac
Headline numbers:
- Statutory NPAT: about A$6.99–7.0 billion, down roughly 2% on FY24 but ahead of consensus (~A$6.83b) TS2 Tech
- Revenue: up around 3%, helped by growth in mortgages, business lending and institutional banking TS2 Tech
- Net interest margin (NIM): essentially flat at ~1.94–1.95%, a small 1 bp decline versus last year despite intense mortgage and deposit competition TS2 Tech
- Operating expenses: up 9% to ~A$11.9b, including about A$273m of restructuring costs under the “Fit for Growth” program and heavy spending on the UNITE technology simplification project Westpac
- Impairment charges: a very low 4 basis points of average loans, down from 6 bps, reflecting benign credit conditions and recoveries Westpac
Balance‑sheet strength remains a key support for the equity story:
- Customer deposits: up 7% to about A$723 billion
- Gross loans: up 6% to about A$856 billion, with business and institutional lending growing double‑digits Westpac
- CET1 capital ratio:12.5%, well above Westpac’s 11.25% target, leaving an estimated A$3.1b of surplus capital after the FY25 final dividend Westpac
The group also moved further on simplification by agreeing to sell its A$21.4 billion RAMS mortgage portfolio to a consortium led by Pepper Money, KKR and PIMCO, recycling capital away from lower‑return, non‑core exposures. TS2 Tech
In plain language: earnings are solid but not surging, with costs and tech investment the main drag, while credit quality and capital buffers remain clear positives.
New on 3–4 December: final dividend and DRP terms locked in
The most concrete new information this week is Westpac’s updated Appendix 3A.1 – Notification of dividend/distribution, lodged on 3 December 2025 with the ASX and NZX. Company Announcements
Key details confirmed or updated:
- Final FY25 ordinary dividend:
- A$0.77 per share, fully franked at the 30% corporate tax rate
- New Zealand imputation credit of NZD 0.06 per share
- Declared 3 November 2025; record date 7 November, ex‑dividend 6 November
- Payment date:19 December 2025 Company Announcements
- Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP):
- DRP applies in full to the final dividend
- DRP price set at A$38.09 per share, calculated from the volume‑weighted average price between 12 November and 2 December, with no discount Company Announcements
- Participation rate:11.3% of ordinary shares on issue have elected DRP participation Company Announcements
- DRP shares will be satisfied by on‑market purchase rather than issuing new equity, reducing dilution risk for non‑participants Company Announcements
- Participation restricted to shareholders with registered addresses in Australia or New Zealand Company Announcements
The updated notice effectively tells investors:
- Cash‑only investors get a fully franked 77c payment in mid‑December.
- DRP investors reinvest at a modest premium to the current price (A$38.09 vs ~A$37.4 today).
- With only around one‑ninth of the register in the DRP and the bank buying shares on‑market to satisfy it, capital management remains shareholder‑friendly rather than dilutive.
Governance and ESG: board scrutiny, coal exit and a NZ conduct reminder
Corporate governance and ESG themes have moved closer to the front of the Westpac story in early December.
Proxy advisers target audit committee chair
On 2 December, Reuters reported that a second major proxy adviser, CGI Glass Lewis, joined ISS in recommending that institutional investors vote against the re‑election of director Peter Nash at Westpac’s AGM on 11 December 2025. Reuters
The objections focus on:
- Nash’s role as chair of Westpac’s audit committee
- His six‑year stint on the board of the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), which has faced its own governance and technology controversies
- Broader concerns about oversight and audit culture at systemically important financial institutions TS2 Tech
While there is no direct near‑term earnings impact, the recommendations raise headline risk ahead of the AGM and reinforce that governance – not just loan losses and margins – can move sentiment on big bank stocks.
Coal exit, sustainability update and NZ fine
Recent sustainability and regulatory developments include:
- Westpac has reaffirmed its commitment to zero lending exposure to thermal‑coal mining clients (where coal is >5% of revenue) by 2030, and now reports only low tens of millions of dollars of such exposure remaining. TS2 Tech
- The bank hosted a Sustainability Market Update on 2 December, led by its Chief Sustainability Officer, building on its 2025 Sustainability Report and climate position statements. TS2 Tech
- A New Zealand High Court decision recently imposed a NZ$3.64m fine on Westpac NZ for breaches of responsible‑lending principles. The amount is immaterial to group profits but highlights ongoing conduct risk. TS2 Tech
For ESG‑screened investors, the coal and climate trajectory is a clear positive; for risk‑focused investors, the NZ penalty and proxy adviser pushback are reminders that reputational and regulatory risks are baked into bank valuations.
Macro backdrop: RBA path, deposit competition and Westpac’s own rate moves
Bank earnings are leveraged to interest rates, and Westpac is as exposed as any of the big four.
Westpac’s house view on the RBA
Westpac’s economics team, led by Chief Economist Luci Ellis, has been projecting a gradual easing cycle rather than a rapid return to ultra‑low rates:
- Earlier in 2025, Westpac forecast the cash rate would bottom near 2.85%, down from a peak of 4.35%, via cuts through 2025–26. Westpac
- More recent commentary flagged an expectation of two more rate cuts in 2026, most likely in May and August, conditional on inflation tracking lower and the labour market softening modestly. Realestate
External surveys and Reuters polling suggest markets see the next RBA cut pushed into 2026, with inflation remaining sticky enough to keep the Board cautious. Reuters
For Westpac, that mix implies:
- Short‑term support for margins (higher rates on loans and relatively slow repricing of deposits), but
- Risk of margin compression once cuts resume, especially if deposit competition forces savings rates higher while loan yields fall.
Deposit pricing and saver pain
In parallel, Westpac has started to pull back on some deposit rates:
- In late November, the bank cut the base rate on its Life savings account by 0.15 percentage points to just 0.10%, after a 0.25‑point cut in September. Yahoo Finance
Combined with commentary about a “deposit ceasefire” among major banks while challenger institutions and Macquarie push higher‑yielding offers, the picture is one of careful margin management that may not thrill increasingly rate‑sensitive savers. TS2 Tech
Analysts’ view: strong franchise, limited upside
Across broker and data‑aggregation platforms, the message is remarkably consistent: Westpac is widely seen as a high‑quality franchise that now trades at a demanding valuation.
Broker consensus and price targets
Recent snapshots from multiple services show:
- Investing.com consensus:
- Rating: “Sell”
- 13 analysts: 0 Buy, 5 Hold, 8 Sell
- Average 12‑month target: ~A$33.9, with a high near A$40 and low around A$30.5 Investing
- TipRanks:
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Sell”
- Average 1‑year target: about A$34.5
- Implied downside: roughly 7–9% from current levels TipRanks
- Other aggregators (MarketScreener, Simply Wall St, TradingView):
- Cluster targets in the mid‑A$30s
- Often describe Westpac as “Underperform” or “Overvalued” at prices in the high‑30s and low‑40s TS2 Tech
A separate analysis of post‑result research notes highlighted:
- Some brokers arguing the “easy gains” are behind WBC above A$38–40, with cost‑execution and margin pressure the key risks. TS2 Tech
- Others acknowledging Westpac as having one of the strongest capital positions and more conservative risk profile among the big four, but still preferring peers on valuation or growth grounds. TS2 Tech
Retail‑oriented research from Rask Media, using dividend‑discount and P/E models, tends to place “fair value” somewhere around the mid‑A$30s at today’s dividend level, implying current pricing is reasonable for income investors but less compelling for those seeking capital growth. TS2 Tech
Fresh sentiment: “Forget Westpac and buy other dividend stocks”?
On 4 December, Motley Fool Australia ran a piece bluntly titled “Forget Westpac shares and buy these ASX dividend stocks”, arguing that several alternative income names may offer better risk‑adjusted yields or growth. The Motley Fool
While not a formal downgrade, that tone – from a widely read retail outlet – mirrors institutional scepticism: Westpac is now widely regarded as an excellent business at a full price.
Technicals and quant models: sideways near term, bullish longer term
Technical and algorithmic services offer a more tactical lens on WBC as of 3–4 December.
Short‑term technical picture
StockInvest’s coverage of WBC.AX notes that:
- The stock closed at A$37.40 on 3 December, up 0.75% on the day StockInvest
- Price action is bouncing around the lower part of a horizontal trading range, with a 90%‑probability three‑month band between roughly A$36.9 and A$40.1 StockInvest
- The system currently labels WBC a “Hold candidate”, with modest upside and downside signals in balance. StockInvest
Longer‑term algorithmic forecasts
On the more speculative side, WalletInvestor’s technical model:
- Puts the real‑time price at around A$37.17 on 4 December
- Projects a 1‑year target of ~A$42.09 and a 5‑year projection near A$60, implying about +62% cumulative return over five years if the model proves accurate Walletinvestor
These algorithmic forecasts are not fundamental valuations and rely heavily on historical price patterns. They do, however, underline that trend‑following systems still see Westpac as a viable long‑term hold, despite analysts’ near‑term caution.
How WBC compares with other big four banks right now
ASX index data show that Westpac has:
- Outperformed peers in 2025: with ~27% YTD gains, versus ~21% for NAB and ~19% for ANZ, and strong contributions to the ASX 200’s record highs. Intelligent Investor
- Slightly lower yield than some peers: a trailing dividend yield near 4.1%, compared with roughly 4.2–4.8% for NAB and ANZ according to the same index snapshot. Intelligent Investor
That combination – best‑in‑class 2025 share‑price run but only mid‑pack yield – goes a long way to explaining why relative‑value investors and some commentators are now:
- Rotating to other high‑yield names, and
- Publishing pieces explicitly urging investors to “forget Westpac shares” in favour of cheaper dividend alternatives. The Motley Fool
Key dates to watch in December 2025 and beyond
Investors tracking WBC around 4 December should have a few dates pinned:
- 4 December 2025: deadline for pre‑submitted AGM questions, per the Notice of Meeting. Westpac
- 11 December 2025:Annual General Meeting, where governance issues (including proxy adviser recommendations on director elections) may be in focus. Westpac
- 19 December 2025:payment of the 77c final dividend and issue/purchase of DRP shares. Company Announcements
- May 2026: scheduled interim results and interim dividend announcement, according to Westpac’s financial calendar. Westpac
Bottom line: what Westpac’s 4 December 2025 setup means for investors
Pulling everything together:
- Income case:
- Risk and valuation case:
- Valuation premium to peers and global banks on P/E and P/B multiples. TS2 Tech
- Consensus analyst targets in the mid‑A$30s, implying mild downside from today’s price and very few (if any) outright “Buy” calls in major datasets. Investing
- Persistent cost and execution risk from tech transformation, plus governance and conduct headlines (NZ fine, proxy adviser recommendations). TS2 Tech
- Macro and technical case:
- Westpac’s own economists still see rate cuts ahead in 2026, which would eventually pressure margins even as they soften credit risk. Realestate
- Short‑term technicals suggest a sideways, range‑bound stock, while some quant models see upside over 1–5 years if the broader banking cycle stays benign. StockInvest
For dividend‑focused, long‑term holders, WBC on 4 December 2025 looks like a solid, fully‑valued income engine with a strong capital base and an ESG story that is slowly improving, albeit with governance noise attached.
For value or growth‑oriented investors, however, the combination of:
- stretched relative multiples,
- cautious broker targets, and
- slowing earnings growth
explains why so many current commentaries conclude that the 2025 rally has front‑loaded a lot of the good news into the price.
