Westpac Banking Corporation (ASX: WBC) on 9 December 2025: Share Price, Dividend Hike, Buyback Extension and Analyst Forecasts

Sydney – 9 December 2025 – Westpac Banking Corporation shares eased slightly on Tuesday but remain close to multi‑year highs as investors focus on this week’s annual general meeting (AGM), a larger final dividend and an extended share buyback program. At the same time, most broker and model-based valuations now sit below the current share price, signalling a more cautious outlook for 2026.

All figures are in Australian dollars and refer to the close on 9 December 2025, unless otherwise stated.

Westpac share price on 9 December 2025

Westpac (ASX: WBC) closed at $37.98 on Tuesday, down 0.68% on the day, after trading between $37.63 and $38.26 with volume of around 778,000 shares. ^[1]

Over the past week the stock has climbed from $37.12 on 2 December, a gain of just over 2%, consolidating near record territory after touching about $41 earlier in the year. ^[2]

On a 12‑month view, Westpac has been one of the stronger performers among the big four Australian banks. The share price is roughly 30% above its 52‑week low of $29.17 set on 9 April 2025. ^[3] Recent analyses from Simply Wall St and Reuters put the year‑to‑date gain between the mid‑teens and low‑20% range, reflecting both price appreciation and dividends. ^[4]

Valuation snapshot: earnings, book value and multiples

MarketIndex data show trailing earnings per share (EPS) of $1.99 and book value per share of $21.31 for Westpac. ^[5]

Using Tuesday’s close of $37.98:

The stock trades on a price‑to‑earnings (P/E) ratio of about 19x.
It also trades on roughly 1.8x book value.

Both valuations sit toward the upper end of Westpac’s post‑Royal Commission trading range, and above many global large‑cap banks, though close to domestic peer averages for the major Australian banks.

Earnings picture: fiscal 2025 results and margin pressures

Westpac’s fiscal 2025 results (year ended 30 September 2025) paint a story of modest revenue growth offset by higher costs and intense competition in mortgages:

Net profit slipped about 2% to roughly $7.0 billion, according to Morningstar’s summary of the result. ^[6]
Revenue grew around 3%, helped by loan growth across housing and business books. ^[7]
Operating expenses rose about 9%, driven by technology investment, regulatory and risk programs, and wage inflation, compressing profit despite higher income. ^[8]

Earlier in the year, Westpac’s first‑quarter update illustrated the pressure on margins. The bank reported unaudited net profit of $1.7 billion for the three months to 31 December 2024, but its core net interest margin (NIM) fell by 2 basis points to 1.81% versus the second half of 2024, largely due to mortgage competition and a shift in customer deposits toward higher‑rate savings and term deposits. ^[9]

By the June quarter (3Q25), Westpac’s investor discussion pack pointed to a modest recovery, with statutory net profit around $1.9 billion, up 14% year‑on‑year, and revenue up about 4%, aided by slightly higher margins and good credit quality, though detailed numbers vary across segments. ^[10]

Importantly for shareholders, credit quality remains solid:

Loan arrears have generally trended lower compared with 2024, even as interest rates remain elevated.
Reuters’ coverage of the full‑year result highlighted a decline in 90‑day home‑loan arrears and stressed loans, suggesting households and small businesses are holding up better than feared. ^[11]

Dividends: 2025 final payout and 2026 expectations

2025 final ordinary dividend

Westpac has lifted its final ordinary dividend to 77 cents per share, fully franked, for the six months to 30 September 2025. ^[12]

Key details:

Final dividend: 77c per share (fully franked, with NZ imputation credits attached). ^[13]
Record date: 7 November 2025. ^[14]
Payment date: 19 December 2025. ^[15]

Combined with the interim dividend of 76c paid in June, total ordinary dividends for FY25 are $1.53 per share, up slightly from FY24. ^[16]

At the 9 December closing price, that equates to a trailing dividend yield of roughly 4.0%, fully franked. ^[17] Simply Wall St notes that Westpac’s yield sits above the bottom quartile of dividend payers in the Australian market, slightly below the top quartile, and roughly in line with the broader banking sector average. ^[18]

Dividend sustainability and payout ratios

MarketIndex data imply a payout ratio around 73–76% of earnings, consistent with Westpac’s medium‑term target range and with typical payout levels across Australia’s big four banks. ^[19] Simply Wall St’s models suggest that dividend payouts remain covered by earnings both now and under base‑case forecasts over the next three years. ^[20]

Early views on 2026 dividends

Commentary from The Motley Fool’s Australian site this week highlighted timetable expectations for FY26 dividends of about 155 cents per share, modestly above the current $1.53, implying a forward yield still near 4% at current prices. ^[21] That figure is in line with analyst forecasts of a slight uptick in yield toward the mid‑4% range over the next three years, contingent on profit growth and regulatory capital requirements. ^[22]

Share buyback: extension to 2026 and progress so far

Capital management remains a central part of the Westpac investment story.

Westpac has been running a large on‑market share buyback, originally sized at $3.5 billion. A recent London Stock Exchange filing and ASX announcements indicate that, as at 30 September 2025, the bank had completed about $2.5 billion of the buyback, cancelling roughly 88.7 million shares at an average price of about $28. ^[23]

On 11 November 2025, an “Update – Notification of buy-back” lodged with the ASX confirmed that Westpac had extended the planned completion date of the buyback to 10 November 2026, giving management more flexibility to return excess capital over time. ^[24]

Commentary from Simply Wall St and other analysts emphasises that:

The combination of higher ordinary dividends and the buyback extension underscores Westpac’s confidence in its capital position, which remains above its CET1 target range. ^[25]
However, these shareholder‑friendly moves do not fully offset structural challenges such as rising costs and ongoing pressure on net interest margins. ^[26]

Analyst ratings and price targets: cautious into 2026

Despite the strong share price performance this year, the bulk of broker research and quantitative models now point to modest downside from current levels.

Key snapshots from recent sources:

MarketScreener aggregates traditional broker research and reports a consensus rating of “Underperform”, with an average 12‑month price target of $33.86 (range roughly $30.50 to $40). ^[27]
Investing.com’s survey of 13 analysts (0 Buy, 5 Hold, 8 Sell) also shows an average target of $33.86, mapping to an overall “Sell” consensus. ^[28]
TipRanks reports that eight Wall Street‑tracked analysts have an average target of about $34.6, with a high of $40 and low of $31. That implies around 8% downside from Westpac’s recent trading range in the high‑$30s. ^[29]
The Wall Street Journal similarly cites an average target around $33.3 and categorises the stock as “Underweight”, with the most optimistic target near $40 and the most cautious closer to $23. ^[30]

Quantitative valuation work from Simply Wall St, updated 14–15 November, estimates a fair value of about $33.86 per share, roughly 10–15% below current levels, and describes the shares as “overvalued” relative to its fundamental cash‑flow model. ^[31]

Taken together, the analyst community and popular valuation models currently see limited upside and a non‑trivial risk of mean reversion if earnings growth disappoints or margins weaken further.

Macro backdrop: RBA rates, Westpac forecasts and confidence indices

The macro environment is a big swing factor for any bank stock, and Westpac is no exception.

A Canstar survey of major bank economists published on 1 December notes that Westpac’s own research team expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut the cash rate twice in 2026 – in May and August – taking it from 3.60% to about 3.10%. ^[32] That path suggests:

Little further rate relief in 2025, with the final cash‑rate decision of the year due Tuesday 9 December 2025. ^[33]
A gradual, not abrupt, easing cycle in 2026, which would likely keep bank margins under mild pressure while offering some credit‑quality relief to heavily indebted households.

Westpac is also closely associated with Australian confidence and leading indicators. The Australia economic calendar for December shows upcoming releases of the Westpac Consumer Confidence index and Westpac Leading Index, which will offer fresh clues about household sentiment and near‑term growth. ^[34]

Governance, regulation and AGM focus

Governance and regulatory issues are back in the spotlight ahead of Westpac’s 2025 AGM, scheduled for 11 December 2025 in Sydney. ^[35]

Two key developments:

Proxy adviser revolt over director re‑election
- On 2 December, Reuters reported that a second major proxy adviser, CGI Glass Lewis, joined Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) in recommending a vote against the re‑election of non‑executive director Peter Nash, who chairs Westpac’s audit committee. ^[36]
- The pushback stems from Nash’s prior role on the board of the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) during a period of operational failures, and from perceived conflicts arising from his former senior partnership at KPMG, which now audits Westpac. ^[37]
- Proxy advisers are influential with institutional investors in Australia, meaning the vote outcome will be watched as a barometer of shareholder confidence in the board’s oversight.
Regulatory penalty for RAMS home‑loan misconduct
- On 24 October, Australia’s Federal Court imposed a $20 million penalty on Westpac’s RAMS unit over widespread misconduct in arranging home loans, including the use of falsified payslips and dealings with unlicensed referrers between 2019 and 2023. ^[38]
- Westpac has said the penalty was fully provisioned and included in its 2025 half‑year results, and that customer remediation was completed in 2024. ^[39]

The AGM notice of meeting confirms that shareholders on the register at 7:00pm (Sydney time) on Tuesday 9 December 2025 are entitled to attend and vote, placing today’s date as the effective cut‑off for AGM participation. ^[40]

Governance questions and regulatory costs are recurring themes in analyst commentary, often cited as reasons for applying a discount to Westpac’s valuation relative to a “clean” bank with fewer legacy issues.

Investment narrative: key bullish and bearish themes

Recent analysis from Simply Wall St and other research providers frames the current Westpac thesis as a balance between solid capital returns and structural headwinds. ^[41]

Positives often cited

Strong capital position supporting ordinary dividends around 4% and a large ongoing buyback. ^[42]
Improved credit quality, with lower arrears and adequate provisioning for problem loans. ^[43]
Franking credits and NZ imputation that enhance after‑tax returns for many domestic investors. ^[44]
A long operating history and leading market positions in Australian and New Zealand retail and business banking. ^[45]

Main concerns

Margin compression from intense mortgage competition and customers shifting deposits from low‑spread at‑call accounts into higher‑yielding term deposits. ^[46]
Cost growth driven by technology upgrades, risk and compliance programs, and wage inflation – factors that pushed operating expenses up around 9% in FY25. ^[47]
Regulatory and governance noise, including the RAMS penalty and proxy adviser opposition to a key non‑executive director. ^[48]
Valuation risk, with the share price trading above most published fair‑value estimates and broker targets. ^[49]

What 9 December 2025 means for Westpac shareholders

Heading into the final RBA decision of 2025 and Westpac’s AGM later this week, the stock sits at an interesting crossroads:

Momentum has been strong – up around 20% in 2025 and roughly 30% from the April low – bolstered by higher dividends and a substantial buyback. ^[50]
Income remains appealing, with a fully franked yield near 4% and scope for gradual increases if earnings hold up. ^[51]
Yet most analysts see limited upside, with consensus targets clustered in the low‑to‑mid $30s and several models explicitly describing the shares as overvalued relative to fundamentals. ^[52]

For existing and prospective investors, the coming weeks will provide several catalysts:

The AGM vote and commentary on governance, capital management and strategy. ^[53]
The December 19 dividend payment, crystallising this year’s cash return. ^[54]
The RBA’s final 2025 cash‑rate decision and any updated guidance, set against Westpac’s forecast of two cuts in 2026. ^[55]

How the share price reacts will depend less on what Westpac has just delivered – solid but not spectacular earnings with generous capital returns – and more on how investors weigh future margin and cost trends against the comfort of a fully franked, big‑four bank dividend stream.