Why AppLovin stock is surging today: CapitalWatch retracts claims as Jefferies backs APP ahead of earnings

New York, February 9, 2026, 11:41 (ET) — Regular session

• AppLovin shares jumped roughly 14% in late-morning trading, following a publisher’s decision to retract portions of a critical report.
• James Heaney at Jefferies stuck with his Buy rating and held the $860 price target. He called the selloff a “great buying opportunity.”
• Attention now turns to AppLovin’s Feb. 11 report, with investors listening closely for management’s take on growth prospects and looming risks.

AppLovin Corp got a lift Monday, with shares climbing after CapitalWatch pulled back sections of a previous report that linked the marketing platform to money laundering. The move helped clear up some of the uncertainty that’s been weighing on the stock.

This rebound is notable. AppLovin stands out as one of this year’s more volatile U.S. software names, with investors swinging between optimism on growth and nerves over headlines. Earnings are out in two days; expectations for trust and guidance are running higher than normal.

This comes as software names have been on a rollercoaster, with investors questioning if rapid-fire AI innovation might upend how software companies make money—or how they’re valued. 1

AppLovin (APP.O) surged 13.7% to $462.54, building on Friday’s close of $406.72. At its peak this session, shares reached $464.98.

Barron’s noted that CapitalWatch has issued a correction and apology to major shareholder Hao Tang, admitting that certain descriptions “were inaccurate and failed to meet our publication standards.” Still, the outlet pointed to lingering questions about AppLovin’s “complex financial structure.” According to the report, CapitalWatch is lining up further articles focused on data-security risks, as well as revenue and “return on ad spend” metrics — essentially, how much advertisers recoup for every dollar they put in. 2

Palo Alto’s AppLovin makes software for advertisers looking to buy ads, and for app publishers aiming to monetize users. The stock, weighed down since January, has struggled after the initial CapitalWatch report.

Jefferies’ James Heaney doubled down on his bullish view Monday, sticking with a Buy and his $860 target. The analyst described the stock’s drop this year as “a great buying opportunity,” arguing that competitive concerns and ad-network jitters are now “overblown risks.” For Heaney, valuation stands out—roughly 15x his projected fiscal 2027 EBITDA, a standard stand-in for cash profit. He’s looking for “a significant revenue beat” in Q4. 3

A catalyst looms for the company. AppLovin will drop its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 numbers after the U.S. close on Wednesday, Feb. 11. CEO Adam Foroughi and CFO Matthew Stumpf are set to run a webcast at 5:00 p.m. ET. Full details here: 4

Still, the relief rally might not hold. Traders face the possibility of further negative research, renewed scrutiny on data and ad metrics, and a real risk that earnings or guidance won’t do much to restore confidence.

AppLovin heads into Wednesday’s report and call with investors focused on the basics: they want to see clean numbers, some sign of stable demand, and specifics—if there are any—addressing the recent controversy.