SINGAPORE — Dec. 21, 2025 — Wilmar International Limited stock has spent the final stretch of 2025 navigating a rare combo platter: headline legal risk across two jurisdictions, a “messy” accounting quarter dominated by a one-off penalty, and a still-intact operating recovery that several analysts argue the market is underpricing.
As of the most recent trading session (Friday, Dec. 19, 2025), Wilmar shares on the Singapore Exchange closed at S$3.06, up 0.66% on the day, with about 9.53 million shares traded. [1]
That surface-level calm hides a more complicated debate underneath: is Wilmar a cash-generative agribusiness trading at a discount because investors are spooked — or a stock whose “cheapness” is justified because legal uncertainty can keep the valuation pinned down for quarters?
Below is what’s driving Wilmar International stock right now, what the latest filings say about fundamentals, and where published forecasts and analyst targets are clustering as of 21 Dec 2025.
Wilmar share price snapshot and recent momentum
Wilmar has drifted lower through December after starting the month around S$3.25 (Dec. 1 close) and ending the latest week at S$3.06 (Dec. 19 close), a decline of roughly 5.8% across that span. [2]
Market-data platforms tracking the counter characterize the recent move as a short-term dip inside a mixed broader picture: TradingView notes a monthly decline alongside a modest year-over-year gain for the stock. [3]
For investors outside Singapore, Wilmar’s ADR line (OTC) also ended Dec. 19 at US$23.67. [4]
The fundamentals story: a headline loss driven by a single huge item
The most important anchor for any Wilmar stock discussion right now is still its third-quarter 2025 result — not because operating performance collapsed, but because the reported net profit line was dominated by a court-related payment.
Wilmar’s SGX executive summary for the quarter shows: Revenue of US$19.07 billion in 3Q 2025, core net profit of US$357.2 million, and a reported net loss of US$347.7 million. [5]
The reason for that reversal into a net loss is explicit in the filing: a payment of IDR 11.88 trillion (about US$712 million) linked to an Indonesia Supreme Court decision concerning actions taken during a prior cooking-oil shortage period. [6]
The Business Times’ coverage of the same release framed it similarly: strip out the one-off payment, and Wilmar’s core net profit rose 71.6% year-on-year; include it, and the quarter flips to a large net loss. [7]
Why the market cares even if it’s “one-off”
Even when investors accept that the payment is non-recurring, it still matters because it can affect:
- Perceived governance and compliance risk (raising the discount rate investors apply)
- Balance-sheet flexibility and capital-return expectations
- How quickly a “China recovery” narrative gets rewarded in the share price (because uncertainty tends to drown out good operating news)
That’s basically the 2025 Wilmar tape in one sentence: “better operations, louder overhang.”
Indonesia cooking-oil case: what’s known and why it still hangs over the stock
A major overhang for Wilmar International stock in 2025 has been the Indonesian case tied to export permits during a domestic cooking-oil shortage.
Reuters reported that Indonesia’s Supreme Court reversed acquittals of several palm-oil firms (including Wilmar Group) in a case involving alleged misconduct related to export permits — after prosecutors appealed and amid a bribery investigation involving judges in the earlier rulings. Reuters also reported Wilmar had paid a large “security deposit,” which the court indicated would be treated as part of the fine and transferred to the state. [8]
Wilmar’s own 3Q executive summary connects the quarter’s major payment to that Supreme Court decision. [9]
Investor takeaway: even if the operating businesses are performing, the stock’s multiple can remain capped if investors believe legal outcomes can generate additional large cash calls (or simply additional reputational risk).
China legal development: YKA subsidiary appeal keeps uncertainty alive
The second major legal headline — and the one that re-ignited bearish broker notes into December — involves Wilmar’s China-linked structure through Yihai Kerry Arowana (YKA), its indirect 89.99%-owned Shenzhen-listed subsidiary. [10]
What Wilmar disclosed on SGX
In an SGX announcement dated Nov. 19, 2025, Wilmar said the first-instance judgment found Guangzhou Yihai (a PRC-incorporated subsidiary under YKA) guilty of contractual fraud, imposed a fine of RMB 1 million, and ordered Guangzhou Yihai and another party to jointly bear losses of RMB 1.88 billion incurred by a state-owned company. Crucially, Wilmar also stated the unit intends to appeal, the judgment does not take effect yet, and the financial impact is uncertain pending the appeal outcome. [11]
How local business media summarized the appeal
The Business Times reported on Nov. 28, 2025 that Guangzhou Yihai lodged a written appeal to a higher court, with YKA saying the second-instance hearing had not commenced and the profit impact remains uncertain. [12]
The Straits Times similarly reported the unit was found guilty and ordered to jointly bear the losses, while noting Wilmar intended to contest the decision and that the fine was not payable pending the appeal because the judgment had not taken effect. [13]
Investor takeaway: for a stock where analysts repeatedly emphasize China’s earnings contribution, anything that introduces “structural overhang” risk in China is likely to hit the valuation harder than a typical one-off operational hiccup.
Governance update: board committee changes aimed at risk oversight
In early December, Wilmar also announced changes to board committee composition. In a Dec. 1, 2025 SGX filing, Wilmar said it was aligning with governance practices where board-level risk committees comprise entirely independent directors. The filing said CEO and chairman Kuok Khoon Hong would cease to be a member of the Risk Management Committee and Board Sustainability Committee, while George Yong-Boon Yeo and Soh Gim Teik would join those committees respectively. [14]
This isn’t a “share price catalyst” on its own, but in a year where risk governance is part of the market’s concern set, it’s relevant context for how the company is positioning its oversight framework.
Strategic move in India: Wilmar increases control of AWL Agri Business
While legal news dominated headlines, Wilmar also kept executing on portfolio strategy — most notably in India.
A Wilmar SGX announcement dated Nov. 19, 2025 stated its wholly-owned subsidiary Lence completed the acquisition of 168,958,219 shares (13%) of AWL Agri Business Limited at INR 275 per share, making AWL an indirect 56.94%-owned subsidiary of Wilmar. [15]
Reuters had earlier reported Wilmar agreed to purchase a 13% stake in AWL Agri Business from Adani Commodities for 46.5 billion rupees (about US$529 million), with Wilmar’s stake rising after completion. [16]
Investor takeaway: this is a reminder that Wilmar isn’t a single-commodity bet; it’s an integrated operator that also makes corporate-control moves in large consumer staples platforms, even while dealing with legal noise elsewhere.
Broker and analyst outlook: targets span roughly S$2.50 to S$3.60
Published forecasts for Wilmar International stock into late 2025 show a wide dispersion — which is exactly what you’d expect when the bull case is “operating recovery and cash generation” and the bear case is “legal uncertainty compresses valuation and flexibility.”
Here’s where the publicly available target ecosystem sits as of 21 Dec 2025:
The bearish end: legal risk and “structural overhang”
The Business Times reported Aletheia Capital downgraded Wilmar to “sell” and cut its target price to S$2.50 (from S$3.49), citing the company’s legal woes and reputational risk, and warning that financial exposure may persist for several quarters even with an appeal process underway. [17]
That same article cited Bloomberg data indicating that among 13 analysts, the majority rated Wilmar a hold, with smaller groups on buy and sell — a snapshot that captures the market’s indecision more than conviction. [18]
The constructive end: underlying earnings and balance-sheet improvement
A UOB Kay Hian note excerpted by SGinvestors highlighted stronger underlying earnings (core net profit up sharply y-o-y after adjusting for one-offs), improving net debt and gearing metrics, and maintained a BUY call with a S$3.50 target price (per the excerpt). [19]
DBS Research, in a separate report hosted on DBS’ site, showed a more cautious stance earlier in 2025: it downgraded Wilmar to HOLD with a S$3.00 target price in early September, pointing to the Indonesia case as a key issue weighing on valuation and sentiment. [20]
Aggregated targets and platform-based forecasts
- SGinvestors’ target-price summary (as of 2025-12-21) showed targets between S$3.00 and S$3.58, with an average of S$3.25. [21]
- TipRanks showed a “Hold” consensus from a smaller sample of analysts, with an average target around S$3.11 and a range from S$2.50 to S$3.60. [22]
- TradingView’s compiled analyst range similarly placed estimates roughly between S$2.48 and S$3.58. [23]
How to read this spread (without pretending it’s prophecy): the market is effectively pricing Wilmar as a business with solid operations but a higher “uncertainty tax.” Targets bunch in the low-to-mid S$3 area when analysts assume legal issues remain contained; they drop closer to S$2.50 when analysts assume the overhang meaningfully constrains flexibility or prompts additional scrutiny.
Dividend and shareholder returns: what Wilmar has already declared in 2025
In its 1H 2025 results communication, Wilmar declared an interim tax-exempt dividend of S$0.04 per share. [24]
Dividend visibility matters for Wilmar’s shareholder base because, in “uncertainty discount” periods, yield can become a bigger share of total return — but only if investors believe cash calls (legal or otherwise) won’t crowd out capital returns.
What to watch next: the catalysts that can move Wilmar stock into 2026
For a stock sitting at the intersection of agribusiness cycles and legal outcomes, the next major price drivers are less about day-to-day commodity ticks and more about discrete events that change confidence.
1) China appeal process and clarity on financial exposure
The key question is not whether Wilmar can pay a fine — it’s whether the ultimate liability stays uncertain long enough to keep institutions sidelined. Wilmar’s own SGX disclosure explicitly says the impact remains uncertain pending appeal outcomes. [25]
2) Any further Indonesia case developments
The 3Q filing shows just how violently a legal outcome can swing headline profitability even when the business is performing. [26]
3) Evidence that operating recovery is durable, not just a quarter
Wilmar’s 3Q executive summary points to segment-level drivers (China food businesses, soybean crushing margins, tropical oils volume, and steady palm plantation contribution). If those drivers persist while legal headlines quiet down, the bull thesis gets easier to underwrite. [27]
4) Integration and value extraction from AWL Agri control
The India control shift is substantial in strategic terms. Any guidance on synergies, capital allocation, or earnings contributions could become a positive counterweight to legal news flow. [28]
Bottom line for Wilmar International Limited stock on December 21 2025
Wilmar International stock ends 2025 as a company with stronger underlying operating performance and improving balance-sheet metrics — but also with a two-front legal narrative that has investors and analysts arguing about the appropriate valuation discount.
That tension shows up everywhere: in the financials (core profit up, headline profit down), in broker targets (clustered in the low S$3s but stretching from S$2.50 to S$3.60), and in price behavior (a December drift lower despite signs of operational resilience). [29]
For investors tracking SGX F34, the near-term direction likely hinges less on commodity optimism and more on whether Wilmar can convert “uncertain legal exposure” into “quantified and manageable risk” — and do it fast enough that operating recovery is allowed to matter again.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.tradingview.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. links.sgx.com, 6. links.sgx.com, 7. www.businesstimes.com.sg, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. links.sgx.com, 10. links.sgx.com, 11. links.sgx.com, 12. www.businesstimes.com.sg, 13. www.straitstimes.com, 14. links.sgx.com, 15. links.sgx.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.businesstimes.com.sg, 18. www.businesstimes.com.sg, 19. sginvestors.io, 20. ir-media.wilmar-international.com, 21. sginvestors.io, 22. www.tipranks.com, 23. www.tradingview.com, 24. www.wilmar-international.com, 25. links.sgx.com, 26. links.sgx.com, 27. links.sgx.com, 28. links.sgx.com, 29. links.sgx.com
