Wilmar International (SGX:F34) in 2025: Legal Storms, Governance Shake-Up and What Comes Next for the Palm Oil Giant

SINGAPORE – 8 December 2025 — Wilmar International Limited, the Singapore‑based agribusiness giant and one of the world’s largest palm oil traders, is ending 2025 in a paradoxical place: core operations are recovering, long‑term earnings are forecast to grow, yet the share price is weighed down by a string of bruising legal setbacks and questions over governance. ^[1]

As of the morning of 8 December, Wilmar’s stock trades around S$3.03 on the Singapore Exchange, near multi‑year lows. Consensus share‑price targets compiled from SGX data now sit at about S$2.44, implying roughly 20% downside from current levels. ^[2]

At the same time, analyst models still project mid‑single‑digit revenue growth and double‑digit earnings growth into 2027, while some fundamental valuations argue the shares are 30–40% below “intrinsic” value. ^[3]

Here’s how Wilmar got into this strange mix of improving numbers, giant fines, and frayed investor nerves — and what the latest forecasts say about the road ahead.

Wilmar International in 2025: Why This Company Matters

Wilmar International is best known as an integrated agribusiness powerhouse, with operations that run from oil‑palm plantations and sugar milling to edible‑oil refining, packaged food brands, oleochemicals, and biodiesel. It operates across China, Southeast Asia, India, Africa, Europe and Australasia, and is one of Asia’s largest listed consumer‑staples groups by revenue. ^[4]

The business is organised into four main segments:

Food Products – consumer edible oils, flour, rice, specialty fats and other branded food staples
Feed & Industrial Products – tropical oils refining, oilseeds & grains, oleochemicals, biodiesel
Plantation & Sugar Milling – upstream palm and sugar operations
Others – including logistics and central services ^[5]

Because Wilmar touches everything from cooking oil in Indian kitchens to industrial fats in European bakeries, its earnings and behaviour ripple through food prices, smallholder livelihoods and deforestation risk across the tropics. That’s why its current legal and governance mess is drawing so much attention.

2025 Financial Performance: One‑Off Legal Hit vs Core Earnings Recovery

First half 2025: Missed expectations, lower dividend

On 12 August 2025, Wilmar reported first‑half 2025 results that missed analyst estimates for core net profit. Core net profit for the six months to 30 June fell to about US$583.7 million from US$606.3 million a year earlier, versus a consensus estimate near US$655 million. ^[6]

Key points from H1 2025:

Feed & Industrial Products profit before tax dropped about 29% to US$381.6 million, hurt by challenging conditions and weaker margins in the tropical oils business. ^[7]
Group revenue still rose 6.3% year‑on‑year to US$32.9 billion, highlighting the scale and demand resilience of Wilmar’s network. ^[8]
The board cut the interim dividend to S$0.04 per share, down from S$0.06 a year earlier — a signal of caution while legal clouds gathered. ^[9]

Management described the backdrop as “challenging” and flagged continued uncertainty in refining margins for tropical oils, but maintained a “cautiously optimistic” stance for full‑year 2025 performance. ^[10]

Q3 2025: Swing to loss after Indonesian fine, but strong underlying operations

The real shock came with the third‑quarter 2025 business update released at the end of October.

Because of developments in a major Indonesian corruption case (more on that below), Wilmar recognised most of a massive “security deposit” as a one‑off expense, causing it to swing into a net loss of roughly US$350 million for Q3 2025, versus a profit of about US$200 million in the same period a year earlier. ^[11]

Strip out that legal hit, though, and the core numbers looked much healthier:

Core net profit jumped about 70–72% year‑on‑year to roughly US$357 million, beating several broker estimates.
Revenue rose about 7–8% to around US$19.1 billion, helped by higher sales volumes in both Food Products and Feed & Industrial Products.
Food Products volumes climbed mid‑single digits, while Feed & Industrial products also saw growth on improved crushing margins. ^[12]

That divergence — strong core earnings, but ugly reported numbers — is at the heart of today’s valuation debate. Bulls argue the legal damage is largely one‑off. Bears worry it’s a sign of deeper compliance problems, and fear there may be more shoes to drop.

Indonesia Cooking‑Oil Case: A US$700m “Security Deposit” Turns into a Fine

The biggest overhang on Wilmar in 2025 has been a sprawling Indonesian graft case tied to palm‑oil export permits during the 2021–2022 cooking‑oil shortage.

From “security deposit”…

In mid‑2025, Wilmar disclosed it had placed roughly 11.8–11.9 trillion rupiah (about US$700–730 million) as a “security deposit” with Indonesia’s Attorney General’s Office, pending the outcome of a court case over alleged misconduct in obtaining export permits. ^[13]

At the time, Wilmar and some brokers framed this as the maximum potential loss if the group lost on appeal — a painful but still hypothetical risk. DBS, for instance, wrote in June that the US$729 million deposit reflected the worst‑case scenario, but maintained a Buy rating with a S$3.80 target price while monitoring the appeal. ^[14]

…to Supreme Court reversal and forfeiture

That worst‑case scenario effectively materialised in late September 2025. Indonesia’s Supreme Court overturned earlier acquittals for Wilmar Group and other palm‑oil firms, ruling that the 11.8 trillion rupiah security deposit should be treated as part of the fine and transferred to the state treasury. ^[15]

Analysts quickly recalculated the damage:

RHB estimated that forfeiting the US$729 million deposit would cut Wilmar’s forecast FY2025 earnings by about 65%, and downgraded the stock to Sell in late September. ^[16]
The Edge Malaysia noted that the US$712 million forfeiture also pushed Malaysian holding company PPB Group — Wilmar’s major shareholder — into the red for the first time in roughly a decade, illustrating how far the shock travels up the ownership chain. ^[17]

Wilmar has said it respects the court’s decision, insists its actions complied with regulations and were taken in good faith, and continues to defend itself in related proceedings. ^[18]

From a pure numbers perspective, that deposit is now mostly gone, and the Q3 loss reflects the accounting impact. From a governance perspective, investors are asking how a company of this scale ended up writing such a large cheque in the first place.

China Contract‑Fraud Case: 1.88 Billion Yuan at Stake

If Indonesia wasn’t enough, Wilmar is also dealing with a high‑profile contract‑fraud case in China.

In November 2025, a Chinese court found that a subsidiary of Yihai Kerry Arawana (YKA) — Wilmar’s China‑listed arm — had acted as an accomplice in fraudulent palm‑oil trades, holding it jointly liable for about 1.88 billion yuan (roughly S$345 million) in losses. The court also imposed a 1 million yuan fine on the unit, and a former general manager was reportedly sentenced to 19 years’ imprisonment. ^[19]

Wilmar’s response has been blunt:

The group said it was “shocked” and called the judgment erroneous, stressing that the trades were done through established channels and that the unit did not benefit from any fraud.
YKA has lodged an appeal against the first‑instance judgment. ^[20]

The case has rattled analysts because China accounts for more than half of Wilmar’s earnings. Aletheia Capital, for example, explicitly cited this ruling when it downgraded Wilmar from “buy” to “sell” and slashed its target price to S$2.50. ^[21]

Governance Response: Board Committees Rebuilt, Chairman Steps Back

Facing two large legal fronts at once, Wilmar has moved to visibly tighten governance and risk oversight.

On 1 December 2025, the company announced a re‑constitution of its Risk Management Committee and Board Sustainability Committee via SGX. ^[22]

On the same day, The Edge Singapore reported that:

Chairman and CEO Kuok Khoon Hong would cease to be a member of both the risk management and sustainability committees with effect from 1 December, though he remains board chair.
Former Singapore foreign minister George Yeo has been appointed to the Risk Management Committee.
Veteran accountant and independent director Soh Gim Teik will join the Board Sustainability Committee. ^[23]

The optics are clear: Wilmar is putting more independent eyes on risk and ESG at precisely the moment when investors are questioning whether internal checks were strong enough in Indonesia and China.

In Malaysia, The Edge’s weekly analysis went further, arguing that the Indonesian deposit forfeiture and the Chinese fraud case together “throw a spotlight on the agribusiness giant’s governance and compliance functions.” ^[24]

Strategic Deals: Doubling Down on India and African Consumer Brands

While lawyers and regulators dominate the headlines, Wilmar has quietly continued to reshape its portfolio of joint ventures and consumer brands.

Raising its stake in Adani‑linked AWL Agri Business (India)

In November 2025, Wilmar’s wholly owned subsidiary Lence Pte Ltd agreed to acquire a 13% stake in AWL Agri Business (the rebranded Adani Wilmar) from Adani Commodities LLP. The deal involves buying roughly 169 million shares at INR 275 apiece, for a total consideration of about INR 46.5 billion (c.S$770 million), funded by internal cash and bank borrowings. ^[25]

The transaction increases Wilmar’s ownership in one of India’s largest edible‑oil and food companies, deepening its exposure to a fast‑growing market for branded staples.

Taking full control of PZ Wilmar (West Africa)

Earlier in the year, Wilmar agreed to acquire the remaining 50% stake in PZ Wilmar Limited from UK‑listed PZ Cussons for US$70 million, giving it full control over a palm‑oil‑based consumer products business in West Africa. ^[26]

Combined, these moves show Wilmar leaning even harder into downstream, branded food businesses in emerging markets — segments that have generally delivered more stable margins than commodity trading and upstream plantations.

Sustainability and Child Protection: A Rare Bright Spot

Wilmar’s reputation on sustainability is complicated: NGOs have for years accused the group of deforestation, labour abuses and land conflicts, particularly in Indonesia and parts of Africa. ^[27]

At the same time, the company has become one of the more closely scrutinised and policy‑heavy players in the sector:

It has a formal No Deforestation, No Peat, No Exploitation (NDPE) policy, RSPO certification across much of its estate, and extensive supplier‑compliance and grievance mechanisms. ^[28]
Through its NDPE palm‑oil programme it has set a goal of classifying 100% of its palm‑oil volumes as “Delivering” (i.e., fully aligned with NDPE criteria) by 2025. ^[29]

Top global ranking on child rights

In October 2025, Global Child Forum again ranked Wilmar the top global performer on children’s rights in the food & beverage sector, reportedly making it the only company to achieve a perfect 10/10 score in its latest benchmark, and marking at least the fourth consecutive year at or near the top. ^[30]

According to Wilmar’s disclosures and related materials:

The company has dedicated policies on child protection and child labour, including for its plantations and supply chain.
In 2024 it supported the education of more than 12,000 children connected to workers and local communities across its operations, through scholarships, school infrastructure and learning programmes. ^[31]

Climate and social impact

Wilmar’s 2024 Sustainability Report, released under the banner “Together We Thrive: Charting the Course for Climate Action and Social Impact,” emphasises:

Work to reduce greenhouse‑gas emissions, especially from land‑use change and mill operations
Smallholder support programmes to improve yields and traceability
Ongoing efforts to meet tightening regulations like the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which will require importers to prove their palm and other commodities are deforestation‑free. ^[32]

In short: Wilmar’s sustainability track record is mixed but improving on paper. The legal cases now unfolding will test whether that ESG machinery is robust, or just glossy brochure material.

Share‑Price Action: From Multi‑Year Lows to Analyst Split

SGX: Near multi‑year lows despite global scale

On 8 December 2025, Wilmar shares trade at about S$3.03, down nearly 1% on the day and hovering close to their lowest levels since around 2016–2017. ^[33]

On valuation metrics:

Consensus share‑price target compiled from SGX‑reported analyst estimates is S$2.44, implying roughly 19.5% downside from today’s level. ^[34]
Aletheia Capital’s fresh Sell rating with a S$2.50 target applies a discount of over 20% to industry median valuations, reflecting its view that legal woes obscure the “earnings recovery narrative” and crimp balance‑sheet flexibility. ^[35]

Other houses are more nuanced:

RHB moved to Sell after the Indonesian Supreme Court decision, warning that the deposit forfeiture could wipe out around two‑thirds of FY25 earnings and flagging the risk of additional penalties from ongoing investigations. ^[36]
Earlier, some brokers had turned more positive after the Q3 business update, noting that core net profit jumped ~72% year‑on‑year once the Indonesian fine was stripped out, suggesting that Wilmar’s underlying operations were recovering well. ^[37]

ADRs: Thinly‑traded but telling

In the US over‑the‑counter market, Wilmar’s ADR (OTCMKTS:WLMIY) recently gapped down in early December, opening around US$23.74 after a US$24.62 close, and last trading near US$23.73 on very light volume. ^[38]

MarketBeat describes the ADR as trading just below its 50‑day moving average but still above the 200‑day, signalling weakness but not outright collapse in investor sentiment. ^[39]

Valuation and Forecasts: Street Pessimism vs “Intrinsic Value” Models

Here’s where things get especially interesting for anyone watching Wilmar as an investment story.

Analyst targets: tilting bearish

Data aggregated by Beansprout and other platforms show:

A consensus SGX target price around S$2.44, implying about 20% downside from S$3.03. ^[40]
Aletheia Capital’s S$2.50 target (Sell) as one of the most bearish calls, explicitly driven by the China fraud case and Indonesian penalty. ^[41]

TradingView, which collated the views of 11 analysts over the past three months, still shows an overall “Neutral” rating with an older average target of roughly S$3.20 and a range from about S$2.50 to S$3.60 — but that likely predates the full impact of the late‑November China ruling and early‑December downgrades. ^[42]

Fundamental / DCF‑style models: Wilmar looks cheap

In contrast, Simply Wall St and similar platforms that focus on discounted‑cash‑flow (DCF) fair‑value estimates paint a more optimistic picture:

One widely cited analysis calculates that Wilmar’s shares could be around 35–38% below their “intrinsic value”, based on projected cash flows and a cost of equity near 6.8%. ^[43]
That same work notes a classic SWOT split:
- Opportunities: forecast earnings growth faster than the broader Singapore market, “good value” on P/E and fair‑value metrics, and significant insider buying over the past year.
- Threats: debt and dividends that are not fully covered by cash flow, plus slowing revenue growth and elevated legal risk. ^[44]

In plain English: models that look only at the cash the business might generate in future say the stock is cheap; models that factor in reputational damage and legal uncertainty are more cautious.

Earnings and Revenue Outlook: Modest Growth from a Huge Base

Whatever one thinks of the legal risks, analyst forecasts imply Wilmar is still expected to grow.

Data compiled by Simply Wall St from consensus estimates show that: ^[45]

Revenue is projected to rise from about US$67.4 billion in 2024 to roughly US$70.8 billion in 2025, US$74.3 billion in 2026 and US$77.4 billion in 2027. That’s a compound annual growth rate of around 4–5% from 2024 to 2027.
Earnings are forecast to climb from around US$1.17 billion in 2024 to about US$1.20 billion in 2025, US$1.46 billion in 2026 and US$1.59 billion in 2027, implying roughly 10–11% annualised earnings growth despite the 2025 legal hit.
A summary line in the same dataset notes that F34’s forecast earnings growth of 10.7% per year beats the local “savings rate” of 2.5%, which is a fancy way of saying analysts expect Wilmar to grow faster than leaving your money in a bank account.

Because Wilmar already sits on a massive revenue base north of US$65 billion, even low‑single‑digit growth translates to tens of billions of extra sales over a few years. The real question is how much of that flows through to shareholders once fines, compliance spending and possible further provisions are accounted for.

Key Risks and Catalysts to Watch into 2026

For investors, regulators and NGOs, the Wilmar story over the next 12–24 months will likely hinge on a few critical moving pieces:

Final financial impact of the Indonesian case
- While the Supreme Court has ordered the security deposit to be treated as a fine, there is still some uncertainty around final amounts, timing and any related tax effects.
- The case also intersects with other investigations in Indonesia, including rice‑related probes flagged in RHB’s note. ^[46]
Outcome of the China contract‑fraud appeal
- If YKA’s appeal reduces or overturns the 1.88 billion yuan liability, sentiment could improve sharply.
- If the judgment is upheld, Wilmar may face additional provisions and reputational damage in its largest profit pool. ^[47]
Governance reforms and board dynamics
- The re‑composition of the risk and sustainability committees and the step‑back of chairman Kuok from those committees will be monitored for real changes in behaviour, not just box‑ticking. ^[48]
Integration and performance of AWL Agri Business and PZ Wilmar
- The expanded stakes in India and West Africa give Wilmar more control, but also greater exposure to emerging‑market currency, regulatory and political risk. ^[49]
New regulatory regimes such as the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR)
- Companies with robust traceability and NDPE implementation could gain share as buyers tighten sourcing.
- But any gaps in Wilmar’s supply‑chain monitoring could quickly translate into export bans, supply disruptions or further NGO campaigns. ^[50]
Balance sheet and dividend policy
- The first‑half dividend cut and the large Indonesian penalty have inevitably reduced balance‑sheet flexibility. How much cash goes to growth capex vs debt vs dividends will signal how confident management really is. ^[51]

The Bottom Line: A Giant at a Crossroads

Wilmar today is a study in contrasts:

Operationally, core earnings are recovering, volumes are growing, and the company is doubling down on branded consumer food businesses in high‑growth markets.
Strategically, it continues to publish detailed sustainability roadmaps and tops global benchmarks on child rights — while critics point to a long trail of historical environmental and labour controversies. ^[52]
Legally and reputationally, it has just swallowed a US$700‑plus million penalty in Indonesia and faces a potential RMB1.88 billion liability in China, prompting prominent analysts to cut ratings and price targets. ^[53]
In the models, Wilmar screens as a cheap, cash‑generative staples group with forecast double‑digit earnings growth. On the exchanges, it trades like a company investors no longer fully trust. ^[54]

For regulators and civil‑society groups, Wilmar is a bellwether of whether a giant commodity trader can genuinely align with stricter environmental and social standards while still operating at scale.