Updated 10 December 2025
Woodside Energy Group Ltd, Australia’s largest independent oil and gas producer, is closing out 2025 with a share price around A$25 on the ASX and roughly US$16.5 in New York, a dividend yield above 6%, and a strategy built on massive LNG growth projects extending well into the 2030s. [1]
At the same time, the company faces a noisy mix of labour unrest, politically sensitive gas developments and mounting scrutiny of high‑carbon projects, all while analysts fiercely disagree on whether Woodside is a bargain or a value trap.
This article pulls together the most important news, forecasts and analyses as of 10 December 2025, with a focus on what it all means for Woodside Energy’s share price and long‑term investment case.
This is general information only and not personal investment advice.
Woodside share price snapshot in December 2025
ASX: WDS – price, size and valuation
As of the close on 9 December 2025, Woodside Energy Group Ltd shares traded at about A$24.90, down roughly 1.2% on the day. The session saw a high near A$25.11 and a low around A$24.82. [2]
On those numbers, Woodside carries a market capitalisation of roughly A$47–48 billion, depending on the data provider, placing it firmly among the ASX’s energy heavyweights. [3]
Key valuation metrics from major data platforms:
- Trailing P/E ratio: broadly in the 10–12 times earnings range
- Trailing dividend yield: around 6.5–6.7%, based on roughly A$1.6–1.7 per share in dividends over the past year
- Price vs. book value: around or just below book (price modestly under reported net asset backing) [4]
In other words, the stock looks cheap versus its own history and the wider market on traditional metrics, especially given the still‑elevated cash flows from LNG and oil.
NYSE: WDS – US‑listed exposure
In New York, Woodside’s American Depositary Shares (ADSs) most recently changed hands at about US$16.5. [5]
MarketScreener’s consensus for the US line shows:
- 15 analysts covering the stock
- Average 12‑month target price of ~US$18.13, implying around 9–10% upside from a recent close near US$16.6
- A mean rating of “Outperform” [6]
From a US investor’s perspective, Woodside is being treated as a mid‑yield, moderately undervalued energy name, with upside primarily tied to LNG growth and dividends rather than hyper‑growth expectations.
Latest news moving Woodside in December 2025
1. Pluto LNG 2 strike threat – labour risk on a crucial growth project
On 4 December 2025, Reuters reported that 99% of Offshore Alliance union members and around 400 members of the Electrical Trades Union voted in favour of strike action at the Pluto LNG 2 construction site in Western Australia. [7]
Key points from that report:
- Pluto 2 is a 5 million tonne per annum LNG expansion of the existing Pluto facility in the Pilbara.
- Woodside is targeting first LNG cargo in the second half of 2026. [8]
- A prolonged strike could slow construction and eat into schedule and budget buffers.
- Unions are pushing for pay rises of about 30%, arguing workers there earn significantly less than at Chevron’s Wheatstone project. [9]
For investors, Pluto 2 is not just another project: it is a near‑term volume and cash flow driver tightly linked to the Scarborough gas development. The strike risk adds a new execution layer to an already complex mega‑project.
2. Greater Sunrise – Timor-Leste gas finally gets a timeline
On 3 December 2025, East Timor’s President José Ramos‑Horta told Reuters that improved trust between his country, Australia and Woodside had ushered in a “new era” for the long‑stalled Greater Sunrise gas project. [10]
Recent developments include:
- Woodside and Timor-Leste agreeing to study a 5 Mtpa LNG plant in Timor‑Leste, supplied from the Greater Sunrise fields.
- For the first time, both parties are working with a timeline that assumes first gas between 2032 and 2035. [11]
- Analysts estimate a Timor onshore plant could cost about US$5 billion more than a Darwin option, but note potential strategic support from Canberra if Chinese interest increases. [12]
Greater Sunrise is therefore back on the map, but still sits at the intersection of geopolitics, national development goals and LNG project economics. It is strategic option value, not near‑term cash flow.
3. Long‑term LNG offtake: Petronas and potentially Saudi Aramco
Woodside continues to lock in demand for its LNG portfolio.
- In September 2025, Woodside signed a deal with Malaysia’s Petronas to supply 1 million tonnes of LNG per year for 15 years starting 2028. [13]
- A Reuters exclusive in November reported that Saudi Aramco is set to sign US LNG agreements with Woodside and Commonwealth LNG, including:
- A potential stake in Woodside’s US$17.5 billion Louisiana LNG project
- An offtake agreement for up to 2 Mtpa of LNG from that facility [14]
These deals, if fully executed, would further underpin Woodside’s US LNG exposure and support the marketing of new capacity scheduled from 2029 onward.
4. Sustainability Focus Session 2025 – Murujuga and ESG positioning
On 9 December 2025, Woodside filed a Form 6‑K with the US SEC attaching its ASX announcement “Sustainability Focus Session 2025 Transcript.” [15]
TipRanks summarised the event as follows: [16]
- The company held a Sustainability Focus Session to brief investors on the implications of UNESCO’s World Heritage listing of Murujuga, an area that includes the Burrup Peninsula where key Woodside assets sit.
- Management emphasised the listing’s importance for operations, heritage protection and Indigenous affairs, and its potential impact on stakeholder perception and regulatory expectations.
TipRanks also highlighted that:
- The most recent analyst rating they tracked was a Hold with a A$25.00 price target.
- Their system showed “technical sentiment: Strong Buy” and a market cap around A$47.8 billion. [17]
The key message is that Woodside is proactively managing ESG and cultural-heritage risks, even as most of its planned production in the 2030s remains fossil‑fuel based.
Latest Woodside Energy news
Operations, guidance and mega‑project pipeline
2025 performance so far: strong volumes, softer prices
Woodside’s Third Quarter 2025 Report, released on 22 October, showed: [30]
- Q3 production: 50.8 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe), up 1% vs Q2 2025
- Full‑year 2025 production guidance raised from 188–195 MMboe to 192–197 MMboe
- Unit production cost guidance lowered from US$8.0–8.5/boe to US$7.6–8.1/boe, helped by strong performance at Sangomar and US assets
- Capital expenditure (excluding Louisiana LNG) trimmed from US$4.0–4.5 billion to US$3.7–4.0 billion
Sangomar in Senegal remains a standout:
- Q3 2025 production averaged 99,000 barrels per day (100% basis) – about 82,000 barrels per day net to Woodside
- Sangomar generated US$477 million of revenue in the quarter [31]
Despite healthy volumes, average realised pricing around US$60/boe reflects the post‑2022 comedown in LNG and oil prices, which is why earnings and dividends are under more pressure than production figures alone might suggest. [32]
Half‑Year 2025 – earnings and dividend snapshot
Woodside’s Half‑Year 2025 Report showed: [33]
- Underlying NPAT: US$1.25 billion, down about 24% on the prior year
- Cash flow from operations: US$3.34 billion in H1 2025
- Gearing: 19.5%, within the 10–20% target range
- A fully franked interim dividend of 53 US cents per share, representing 80% of underlying NPAT and an annualised dividend yield of ~6.9% at mid‑year prices
The company also disclosed meaningful oil price hedging, covering roughly 30 MMboe of 2025 production at an average price near US$79 per barrel and additional 2026 volumes around US$70 per barrel, providing some downside protection if oil weakens further. [34]
Capital Markets Day 2025 – Woodside’s long‑term ambition
At its Capital Markets Day on 4–5 November 2025, Woodside set out an aggressive long‑term growth roadmap: [35]
- Sales volumes are expected to rise about 50% between 2024 and 2032, from roughly 203.5 MMboe to more than 300 MMboe per year.
- Net operating cash flow is targeted at around US$9 billion by the early 2030s, implying a >6% compound annual growth rate from 2024.
- Management says this trajectory could support a roughly 50% increase in dividend per share from 2032, once the current wave of capex rolls off.
Major projects underpinning this plan include:
- Scarborough + Pluto Train 2 (Australia): ~91% complete by end‑Q3 2025, aiming for first LNG in 2H 2026. [36]
- Trion (Mexico): 43% complete in Q3 2025, targeting first oil in 2028. [37]
- Beaumont New Ammonia (US): about 97% complete at Q3; first ammonia targeted from late 2025, with lower‑carbon ammonia in 2H 2026 after CCS is online. [38]
- Louisiana LNG (US): three‑train, 16.5 Mtpa project targeting first LNG in 2029; Woodside completed the sell‑down of 40% of Louisiana LNG Infrastructure LLC to Stonepeak for US$1.87 billion, with Stonepeak to contribute US$5.7 billion of the project capex over 2025–26. [39]
From Woodside’s perspective, these projects are designed to more than offset declines in legacy fields and position the company as a global LNG and lower‑carbon ammonia player straddling both the Atlantic and Pacific basins.
Analyst ratings, price targets and valuation debate
Broker and consensus targets
Several data sources give a good picture of where the sell‑side sits as of early December:
- ASX consensus (AUD):
- ValueInvesting.io and similar aggregators show an average 12‑month price target around A$27–27.5, with a range roughly A$23–35.
- The consensus recommendation is broadly “Hold”, with a relatively even split between Buy and Hold calls. [40]
- FNArena broker snapshot:
- 1 Buy and 5 Hold ratings in the most recent update.
- A consensus target price near A$26.1 (modest upside versus the A$24–25 share price).
- Individual targets include a low in the mid‑A$23s and a high around A$30.6, with at least one broker (Jarden) rating the stock Overweight with a target in the mid‑A$20s. [41]
- US consensus (USD):
- MarketScreener reports 15 analysts on the US line, with a mean rating of “Outperform” and an average target of US$18.13, about 9.5% above a recent close near US$16.6. [42]
Broadly, the Street sees moderate upside, not a screaming bargain. The skew is toward “Hold/Accumulate” with some Buy conviction, particularly from brokers who are more optimistic on the LNG cycle.
Morningstar’s deep value angle
Against this, Morningstar’s valuation work is conspicuously more bullish. A 9 December 2025 article on Finance News Network summarised Morningstar’s view that: [43]
- Australian equities overall have largely retreated back to fair value after trading at a premium earlier in 2025.
- Within the energy sector, Woodside Energy and Santos are trading at nearly half of Morningstar’s fair value estimates, making them some of the most undervalued large caps in its coverage universe.
Morningstar’s analyst star‑ratings effectively frame Woodside as heavy “deep value” within a still‑out‑of‑favour sector. While the exact fair value number is paywalled, the “nearly half” wording implies a theoretical upside that could be close to 100% on their model.
Technical and sentiment indicators
Technical sites and sentiment platforms are more mixed:
- StockInvest’s analysis of the US‑listed WDS recently downgraded the stock from a Buy to a more cautious stance, describing it as having several negative technical signals and labelling it a “sell candidate” in the very short term, albeit with scope for a rebound. [44]
- TipRanks, drawing on its own technical and sentiment signals, currently flags “Strong Buy” technical sentiment for WDS while simultaneously showing the latest human analyst rating as a Hold with a A$25 target. [45]
This tells you that short‑term trading systems and long‑term valuation models are not aligned: quants see choppy momentum; fundamental analysts see modest upside; Morningstar sees a deep value opportunity.
Earnings and dividend forecasts
Street expectations: revenue flat, earnings drifting lower
Simply Wall St’s synthesis of analyst forecasts (updated 4 December 2025) paints a relatively sober picture for the next few years: [46]
- Earnings (NPAT) are forecast to decline about 5.2% per year over the next three years.
- Earnings per share (EPS) are forecast to fall roughly 5.7% per year.
- Revenue is still expected to grow, but only by about 0.7% per year, slower than the broader Australian market.
- Return on equity three years out is forecast at a modest ~5.2%.
On these numbers, consensus appears to expect lower commodity prices and narrower margins to more than offset volume growth until the new LNG capacity is fully contributing.
Longer‑dated forecasts out to 2029
Broker models summarised in local financial media suggest that:
- By FY2029, Woodside could still be generating around US$2 billion in net profit, but that would represent a slight decline from the previous year, assuming softer LNG pricing and a more normalised margin environment. [47]
- UBS’s dividend modelling points to dividends per share falling toward roughly A$0.52 by 2029, significantly below the recent annual run rate (around A$1.60–A$1.70), implying a lower future yield if the share price holds near current levels. [48]
These are just forecasts, heavily dependent on assumptions about LNG and oil prices, capital allocation and tax regimes. Still, they help explain why some analysts treat Woodside more as a stable but ex‑growth cash generator than a growth stock.
Management’s counter‑narrative
Woodside’s own Capital Markets Day messaging is more upbeat:
- Management argues that as Louisiana LNG, Scarborough/Pluto 2, Trion and Beaumont New Ammonia ramp up, sales volumes and net operating cash flow will grow strongly through to the early 2030s, even under mid‑cycle price assumptions. [49]
- Because capex is heavily front‑loaded this decade, they suggest capacity for higher dividends later on, targeting roughly 50% higher dividends per share by 2032 compared with today, assuming projects deliver as expected. [50]
The gap between broker models (near‑term earnings drift and lower DPS) and management’s long‑term cash‑flow story is at the heart of the current valuation debate.
Key risks: why the market is cautious
Even with a high dividend yield and an apparently cheap multiple, investors are far from unanimous. The main reasons:
1. Commodity and LNG cycle risk
Woodside is still overwhelmingly dependent on hydrocarbons, particularly LNG sold into Asia and Europe. Consensus forecasts cited by the company itself point to potential LNG overcapacity later this decade, which could pressure prices just as Louisiana LNG and other projects hit full stride. [51]
Analysts wary of the LNG cycle see a meaningful risk that Woodside invests through the top of the cycle and earns structurally lower returns on its megaprojects if long‑term contract prices disappoint.
2. Execution risk on mega‑projects and labour disputes
The Pluto LNG 2 strike ballot is a concrete example of project risk: prolonged industrial action at a 5 Mtpa facility that underpins Scarborough gas exports could delay start‑up and increase costs, with knock‑on effects on debt metrics and cash flow timing. [52]
Louisiana LNG, meanwhile, is:
- Large (US$17.5 billion initial phase)
- Complex, involving multiple equity partners and potential Aramco involvement
- Scheduled to start in 2029, by which time the global LNG market might look very different [53]
Any cost blowouts, regulatory issues or partner disputes could erode the attractive returns Woodside currently models.
3. ESG, climate and heritage constraints
Woodside’s Sustainability Focus Session and the attention on Murujuga’s World Heritage listing underline a rising tide of environmental and cultural‑heritage oversight around its Western Australian assets. [54]
Separately, projects like Browse have been criticised by climate‑focused think tanks as high‑cost, high‑emissions developments that could struggle in a world moving toward decarbonisation and stricter emissions policy. TechStock²+1
Investors have to weigh the risk that political and social licence constraints tighten faster than Woodside can adapt its portfolio.
4. Geopolitical and country risk
Projects like Greater Sunrise are entangled with maritime boundaries, development politics and geopolitical competition, including potential Chinese interest in Timor‑Leste. [55]
Woodside has reduced some risk by divesting assets (e.g., Greater Angostura in Trinidad and Tobago) and selling down part of Louisiana LNG, but its project slate still spans multiple jurisdictions with different levels of political and regulatory stability. [56]
So is Woodside Energy stock a buy, hold or sell in December 2025?
Putting the pieces together:
- Valuation:
- Traditional multiples (P/E ~10–12, P/B below 1, trailing yield ~6.5%) look undemanding. [57]
- Mainstream broker targets imply modest upside (high single‑digits to low double‑digits) over 12 months. [58]
- Morningstar and some value‑oriented commentators see much deeper undervaluation, with the stock trading at roughly half of their fair value estimate. [59]
- Income profile:
- Current dividends are generous, with a trailing yield in the mid‑single to high‑single digits.
- Several brokers, including UBS, expect dividends per share to trend lower toward the end of the decade as earnings normalise. [60]
- Growth story:
- Management’s Capital Markets Day outline is compelling on paper: +50% sales volumes and net operating cash near US$9 billion by the early 2030s, plus room for higher dividends once capex moderates. [61]
- Independent models are more conservative, forecasting flat to declining earnings over the next few years despite volume growth. [62]
- Risk factors:
The market’s current stance is effectively “cautiously constructive”:
- Consensus ratings cluster around Hold/Outperform with moderate upside.
- Income investors are attracted by the high current yield, but must accept the likelihood of lower future dividends if commodity prices stay subdued.
- Long‑term growth investors must decide whether they believe Woodside’s own scenario – strong LNG demand and high‑return projects – or the more sober external models that see shrinking earnings even as volumes grow.
For investors who:
- Believe in a robust LNG market into the 2030s,
- Are comfortable with project and ESG risk, and
- Are willing to ride through commodity‑driven volatility,
Woodside at around A$25 / US$16.5 can be argued to offer asymmetric upside, especially if Morningstar’s deep‑value thesis proves right. [65]
For more risk‑averse investors focused on near‑term earnings stability, the combination of earnings drift, project complexity and climate‑policy uncertainty may justify the market’s current discount – and align more with the consensus “Hold” stance.
References
1. stockhead.com.au, 2. stockhead.com.au, 3. www.marketindex.com.au, 4. www.morningstar.com, 5. www.marketscreener.com, 6. www.marketscreener.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.woodside.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.stocktitan.net, 16. www.tipranks.com, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.woodside.com, 31. www.woodside.com, 32. www.woodside.com, 33. www.woodside.com, 34. www.woodside.com, 35. www.woodside.com, 36. www.woodside.com, 37. www.woodside.com, 38. www.woodside.com, 39. www.woodside.com, 40. valueinvesting.io, 41. fnarena.com, 42. www.marketscreener.com, 43. www.finnewsnetwork.com.au, 44. stockinvest.us, 45. www.tipranks.com, 46. simplywall.st, 47. www.fool.com.au, 48. www.fool.com.au, 49. www.woodside.com, 50. www.woodside.com, 51. www.reuters.com, 52. www.reuters.com, 53. www.reuters.com, 54. www.tipranks.com, 55. www.reuters.com, 56. www.woodside.com, 57. www.morningstar.com, 58. valueinvesting.io, 59. www.finnewsnetwork.com.au, 60. www.fool.com.au, 61. www.woodside.com, 62. simplywall.st, 63. www.reuters.com, 64. www.tipranks.com, 65. www.finnewsnetwork.com.au
