Perth, July 16, 2026, 07:08 (AWST)
Woodside Energy Group Ltd ASX:WDS goes into Thursday’s ASX session with some help from higher crude prices. But its most recent update on production and hedging shows it may not see a big short-term gain. First-quarter numbers suggest unhedged crude and condensate make up around 25% of total output.
The ASX cash market was still in pre-open at the dateline. Woodside ended Wednesday at A$29.93, falling 0.9% after a 3.0% jump on Tuesday. Santos Ltd ASX:STO rose 1.3% Tuesday, then edged down 0.3% on Wednesday. Brent finished at $84.95 a barrel, up another 2% Tuesday after Monday’s 9.6% surge with U.S.-Iran fighting raising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
The first session shows there is a gap:
| Asset | Relevant session | Closing price | Session move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent crude futures | July 13 U.S. settlement | $83.30/bbl | up 9.59% |
| Woodside | July 14 ASX close | A$30.20 | added 3.00% |
| Santos | July 14 ASX close | A$7.70 | rose 1.32% |
Woodside shares rose about 31% as much as Brent, and Santos about 14%. These are raw market reaction numbers, not measures of commodity leverage. Trading hours and company risk profiles also play a role.
Production mix comes first. Woodside said Q1 output was 45.187 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe). Crude and condensate made up 18.473 MMboe, or 40.9%. All liquids averaged 221,000 barrels a day from total daily production of 502,000 barrels of oil equivalent, about 44%. Most of the company’s volumes aren’t linked straight to Brent prices.
The second filter is the last published hedge book. A hedge gives up some price upside for more predictable returns.
| Exposure step | Calculation from Woodside data | Derived reading |
|---|---|---|
| Crude and condensate share | 18.473 MMboe divided by 45.187 MMboe | 40.9% of Q1 production |
| Hedge-volume proxy | 30 MMboe over annualized Q1 crude and condensate | 40.0% |
| Rough unhedged crude screen | 40.9% times 60.0% | 24.5% of group production |
The 24.5% number isn’t earnings sensitivity. It’s based on first-quarter production annualized and Woodside’s March 31 update showing 30 MMboe of 2026 oil output hedged at $74.23 a barrel on average. The final figure can shift with hedge timing, changes in production, and the price index for each cargo.
Brent closed Wednesday $10.72 higher than Woodside’s average hedge price, putting it 14.4% above the disclosed level. Still, Woodside said its first-quarter oil hedges brought in a $9 million pre-tax profit, even with Dated Brent averaging $81 a barrel for the quarter. The math isn’t obvious—the result shows that simply multiplying the current price spread by 30 million barrels doesn’t capture hedge losses.
Gas is another path to bigger revenue, but progress is slower. In the first quarter, around 51% of LNG sales were tied to gas-hub indices—so traded gas benchmarks—while contract lags meant LNG prices stayed roughly flat versus last quarter. CEO Liz Westcott said in the April report, “Further benefits of currently higher spot prices will be realised in subsequent quarters for LNG due to lagged contract pricing.” Woodside
The delay now puts the cleanest look at results after Woodside’s July 29 Q2 report. The oil shock hit in July, after the quarter closed. Investors are watching for what management says about third-quarter selling prices, any changes to the hedge book, and if Woodside keeps full-year production guidance at 172 MMboe to 186 MMboe.
Woodside is carrying about $9.3 billion in net debt including leases and has $8.3 billion in liquidity as of March 31, with capital spending guidance set at $4.0 billion to $4.5 billion for 2026. Scarborough is 96% done and aiming for first LNG in the fourth quarter. Louisiana LNG is 24% complete and looking at first cargo in 2029. Higher prices are helping cover costs, but project execution is still the main factor for equity.
Still, the oil risk premium could drop fast if shipments from the Gulf pick back up or if fighting slows down. In that case, some of the fall would be cushioned by Woodside’s hedges. Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said traders seemed to think they’d “seen this movie before.” U.S. crude stocks dropped by 1.7 million barrels last week, less than the 2.6 million-barrel draw projected, while distillate inventories jumped by 4.6 million barrels, well above the 100,000-barrel build expected. If shipping gets hit harder, that flips the risk, pushing prices higher and raising questions about transport and global demand. Reuters
The low-key move in the shares lines up with Woodside’s asset base, rather than sending a signal that the oil rally doesn’t matter. As of the last numbers, Woodside benefits from higher energy prices but sees LNG gains come through later and only has some oil price cover. This isn’t a pure Brent play.
