WARSAW, July 28, 2026, 01:11 CEST — WTI trading electronically; ICE Brent not trading. Trade in CME’s WTI contract continued, as Brent oil futures remained inactive between London’s daily sessions.
- WTI stood at $82.11, a decline of 0.6% compared to Monday’s close.
- Brent closed at $88.36, down 8.7%, while WTI declined 7.5%.
- Despite significant limits on Gulf shipping, both benchmarks settled under July 20 marks.
Oil prices hovered close to Monday’s lows in early trading on Tuesday. September WTI was last seen trading near $82.11 per barrel, after starting the session at $81.89.
The losses came after a sharp decline on Monday. Brent slid $8.42, closing at $88.36—its weakest finish since July 17. WTI declined $6.70 to end at $82.61, also marking a low not seen since July 16.
Washington halting air strikes on Iran prompted the pullback. Markets factored in a higher likelihood of negotiations and more open transit through Hormuz. However, there is still no official deal in place.
The investor signal stands out as especially clear. Futures reversed the previous week’s war surge even before any significant recovery in physical oil flows.
| Benchmark | July 20 close | July 24 close | July 27 close | Change since July 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent | $89.22 | $96.78 | $88.36 | -1.0% |
| WTI | $83.23 | $89.31 | $82.61 | -0.7% |
Reuters settlement figures; percentage movements computed and rounded.
The reversal indicates traders are prioritizing diplomatic efforts over oil volumes. Brent and WTI are both trading under their levels from before the surge, while Gulf exports continue to face limitations.
Over the weekend, under 10 commodity ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz each day. According to a Reuters-cited analyst estimate, traffic was close to 15% of its pre-war volume. Typically, daily shipments of crude, condensates and products averaged about 20 million barrels.
PVM analyst John Evans stated the market remained “forever seeking good news from an arena that really is not providing any.” He added the halt did not assure oil flows would soon return to previous levels. Reuters
Supply issues persist beyond the Gulf region. Kazakhstan experienced a greater than 50% drop in output after its primary Black Sea export hub shut down due to drone strikes. Exports later picked up again, which helped contain the short-term impact.
U.S. stockpiles offer just limited support. Last week, commercial crude inventories increased by 2 million barrels, reaching 411.7 million. Levels were still around 6% under the typical five-year average for this season. Refineries ran at 96.1% capacity.
The overall scarcity premium remains in place. The Energy Information Administration projects global inventories to decline by 2.2 million barrels per day in the third quarter. For the fourth quarter, it forecasts inventories to rise by 2.7 million barrels per day.
The EIA projects Brent crude will average $70 in the fourth quarter. Monday’s closing price of $88.36 stood 26% higher than that estimate. The disparity indicates ongoing immediate supply and shipping threats.
The upcoming challenge comes with inventory figures. The American Petroleum Institute’s initial estimate will be released on Tuesday. The EIA’s official report is due Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. Eastern time.
Risks: An agreement in place and more tankers at sea may keep oil falling. The risk premium may return rapidly if strikes begin again, or if drone attacks or vessel seizures occur.
