Xiaomi’s Wild Week: State‑Gift Phones, 40k+ EV Deliveries Again, Double‑11 Billions—and a Stock Dip on Nov 5

Key facts (Nov 5, 2025 + last few days)

• Share price today (HKEX: 1810): Xiaomi closed at HK$42.96 on Nov 5, 2025 (vs HK$43.42 on Nov 4; ‑1.1% d/d). 5‑day move (vs Nov 3 close HK$44.72): ‑3.9%. 52‑week range: HK$26.60–61.45. Sources: HKEX quote page; Yahoo Finance daily prices; Reuters quote page. 1
• Market driver today: Hang Seng eased amid “AI bubble” jitters; Xiaomi traded ~HK$43.32 intraday before closing lower. 2
• Geopolitics meets branding: At the APEC summit, Xi Jinping gifted South Korea’s president two Xiaomi phones, quipping “You can check if there’s a backdoor.” 3
• Singles’ Day (Double‑11) kickoff: Xiaomi says omnichannel payments exceeded RMB 18.2 billion by 23:59:59 on Oct 31 (opening phase). 4
• EV momentum: Xiaomi EV again topped 40,000 deliveries in October (second straight month >40k); Sept set a record 41,948. 5
• EV safety & fixes: China’s regulator announced an OTA recall for 115k+ SU7 units over assisted‑driving warnings (Sept 19); EV safety headlines also weighed on shares in mid‑Oct. 6
• Smartphone market context (Q3): Omdia estimates 43.4M Xiaomi shipments (global 14% share) in Q3 2025; IDC pegs global shipments up 2.6% y/y to ~323M. 7
• Software:HyperOS 3 (Android 16 base) is rolling out globally; more devices are slated to get the stable build in November. 8
• Costs bite: Xiaomi President Lu Weibing: “Rising costs of memory chips are far beyond expectations and could intensify,” after Redmi K90 pricing stoked debate. 9
• Near‑term catalyst: Board set to review/approve Q3 results on Nov 18, 2025 (company announcement to investors). 10

What happened today (Wed, Nov 5, 2025) and in the last few days

Markets & the stock

Xiaomi closed at HK$42.96, down 1.1% day‑over‑day and 3.9% below Monday’s close (Nov 3), with intraday prints near HK$43.32 as Hong Kong tech names softened alongside global risk‑off sentiment tied to AI‑stock volatility. The 52‑week range (HK$26.60–61.45) underlines how far the name has run (and pulled back) through the EV ramp. 11

“A 10 to 15 per cent correction wouldn’t just be tolerable, it might even be healthy,” notes Stephen Innes, SPI Asset Management, on broader Hong Kong sentiment. 2

Brand moment on the world stage

At APEC in Gyeongju, Xi Jinping gifted two Xiaomi phones to South Korean President Lee Jae‑myung—a carefully curated moment that underscores Xiaomi’s rise as a national tech symbol. When Lee joked, “How is the communication security?”, Xi replied, “You can check if there’s a backdoor.” It’s rare levity from Xi—and a reminder of the scrutiny Chinese devices face abroad. 3

Singles’ Day (Double‑11) open: strong start

Xiaomi’s official tally for the opening phase reported RMB 18.2 billion in cumulative payments across channels by Oct 31 23:59:59. It also touted top ranks among domestic brands across the major platforms (Tmall, JD, PDD, Douyin, Kuaishou). Early read‑through: strong brand pull heading into the November peak. 4

EV ramp vs. safety overhang

• Deliveries: Xiaomi EV says October deliveries again exceeded 40,000—its second straight 40k+ month after 41,948 in September, as the SU7 sedan plus the YU7 SUV expand the lineup. 5
• Customer incentives: To cushion policy changes, Xiaomi is offering up to RMB 15,000 in purchase tax subsidies for cars ordered by Nov 30 and delivered in 2026. 12
• Safety: A Sept 19 OTA campaign covers 115k+ SU7s to improve ADAS warning behavior. Mid‑October accidents (including a fatal SU7 Ultra blaze in Chengdu) triggered the stock’s worst weekly drop in ~3½ years—a reminder that safety narratives can rapidly swing sentiment. 6

Smartphones & software

• Market share:Omdia estimates Xiaomi shipped 43.4M smartphones in Q3 (global 14% share), contributing to a market that grew ~3% YoY to 320.1M units; IDC similarly reports 2.6% global growth in Q3. 7
• OS rollout:HyperOS 3 (Android 16‑based) is expanding globally through November, after initial devices began receiving stable builds in late October. Expect a long tail of model‑by‑model updates. 8
• Component costs: Memory prices are a near‑term headwind. As Lu Weibing put it: “Cost pressure has transferred to the pricing of our new products… [costs] are far beyond expectations and could intensify.” 9

Expert & analyst quotes to know

• Xi Jinping (on Xiaomi phones given to South Korea’s president): “You can check if there’s a backdoor.” Signal: Xiaomi’s brand is being used in high‑profile diplomacy—visibility brings opportunity and scrutiny. 3
• Jusy Hong, Senior Research Manager, Omdia (on vendors’ playbooks for rising costs):
  “Vendors may adopt different strategies… prioritizing high‑margin models, keeping mid‑ and low‑end devices on a defensive stance… [and] leveraging scaling to strengthen supply‑chain bargaining power.” Signal: Xiaomi’s premium push (e.g., 17‑series + Leica co‑branding) aligns with this margin‑first pivot. 7
• Stephen Innes, SPI Asset Management (on Hong Kong market tone):
  “A 10 to 15 per cent correction… might even be healthy.” Signal: Macro tape can overshadow company‑specific news—volatility cuts both ways. 2
• Lu Weibing, Xiaomi President (on memory chips):
  “Rising costs of memory chips are far beyond expectations and could intensify.” Signal: Watch ASPs and gross margin in Q4 as HyperOS rollouts and Double‑11 promos intersect with cost inflation. 9

Deeper read: the story lines behind the headlines

1) Stock check: where we stand and why it moved

• Close:HK$42.96 (Nov 5); day range:HK$42.16–43.32; 5‑day:‑3.9% from Nov 3, reflecting tech‑led risk‑off in Hong Kong and lingering EV safety overhang. 52‑week HK$26.60–61.45. 11
• Context: After October’s EV accident headlines and a Sept 19 OTA recall, Xiaomi logged its worst week since early 2022 in mid‑October before stabilizing; today’s dip fits broader market caution. 13

2) EV ramp: volume is real, brand equity is fragile

• Volume: Two consecutive 40k+ months suggest a credible ramp. The YU7 SUV (order book strong) broadens Xiaomi’s reachable market beyond the SU7 sedan. 5
• Incentives & policy: The purchase‑tax subsidy guarantee for orders locked by Nov 30 aims to de‑risk customers facing 2026 deliveries as national tax‑incentive rules evolve. 12
• Safety & OTA cadence: The Sept 19 ADAS update shows Xiaomi can leverage consumer‑electronics style iteration in autos, but perception risk persists—each high‑profile incident prompts questions on design (e.g., e‑latches), validation and AD stack tuning. 6
• Europe watch: With the EU scrutinizing Chinese EVs, Breakingviews highlights how brands from BYD to Xiaomi will push into premium niches in Europe with aggressive tech‑per‑euro. Xiaomi’s timing for overseas car shipments remains 2027 per prior guidance. 14

3) Phones & HyperOS: premium push, cost pressures

• Q3 shipments: Global smartphones grew ~3% YoY; Xiaomi held ~43–44M shipments (No. 3 globally). Momentum outside China helped offset domestic softness after subsidies faded. 7
• OS rollout:HyperOS 3 (Android 16 base) is now scaling globally into November, with staged device waves; rumor mills about HyperOS 3.1 abound, but the confirmed story is 3.0 going wide. 8
• Components: Memory pricing is the swing factor for Q4 smartphone margins; Xiaomi has already had to fine‑tune Redmi K90 launch pricing in response. 9

4) Strategy & capital

• Chip design: Xiaomi plans to invest ≥RMB 50 billion over 10+ years into chip design, supporting its in‑house Xring O1 program and broader edge‑AI ambitions. 15
• Financing for scale: In March, Xiaomi raised ~$5.5B via an upsized Hong Kong placement to fund business expansion—including EV ramp and AI‑era R&D. 16
• Operational cadence: Earlier this year, Xiaomi lifted 2025 EV delivery guidance to 350,000 and outlined aggressive retail expansion; watch if Q3 results reaffirm that trajectory. 17

Outlook: my base case, with risks and upside

Next 4–8 weeks (through year‑end)

• Catalysts:
  • Q3 2025 results (Nov 18): Expect healthy EV revenue mix and stable smartphone volumes; gross margin will hinge on memory DRAM/NAND inflation vs. Double‑11 promos. 10
  • Final Double‑11 scorecard: If Xiaomi sustains leadership across platforms and converts “payment amount” to shipped revenue efficiently, Q4 could see an ASP mix lift (flagships + ecosystem). 4
  • EV deliveries: Look for 40k‑plus prints to persist; any pause due to supply bottlenecks or safety updates would be scrutinized. 5

Base case (near term):

• Phones: Low‑single‑digit unit growth with premium skew (HyperOS 3 + 17‑series), but gross margin capped by memory costs. 7
• EVs: Sustained monthly 40k± deliveries; positive mix as YU7 ramps; more frequent OTAs to bolster safety perception. 5
• Stock: Tape‑driven volatility remains high; into earnings, HK$40–46 band is plausible absent fresh safety headlines or macro shocks (observation, not advice).

Bull case:

• Memory prices cool faster than feared; Double‑11 conversion surprises; EU market access path clarifies; no new EV incidents—allowing a re‑rate toward the upper 40s/low 50s HKD over weeks/months. 7

Bear case:

• New EV safety headline or regulatory action; component cost spike; weak China demand; broader Hang Seng drawdown—pressuring shares toward high‑30s HKD support from October. 13

Quick “cheat sheet” for investors & observers (public‑friendly)

• Ticker & close (Nov 5):1810.HK @ HK$42.96; 52‑week HK$26.60–61.45. 1
• Today’s vibe: HK tech softness; Xiaomi slipped with the tape. 2
• Headline wins: Double‑11 opening RMB 18.2B; EV deliveries >40k again; diplomatic spotlight with Xi’s Xiaomi‑phone gift. 4
• Watch outs: EV safety narrative; memory inflation crimping margins. 6
• Next date:Nov 18 Q3 review/approval by the board (earnings window). 10

Sources & further reading (selected)

• Stock & market: HKEX live quote; Yahoo Finance historicals; Reuters quote pages; SCMP market wrap (Nov 5). 1
• APEC gift: Reuters on Xi’s “backdoor” remark. 3
• Double‑11 opening tally: Sina Finance (company Weibo relay). 4
• EV deliveries: CnEVPost (Nov 1) and recall notice coverage (Reuters, Sept 19); mid‑Oct safety/market piece (Reuters). 5
• Smartphone market: Omdia press release via Nasdaq (Q3 2025 vendor table & commentary); IDC via Reuters (global Q3 growth). 7
• Costs & pricing: Reuters interview/posts quoting Lu Weibing on memory chips. 9
• Capital & strategy: Reuters on chip‑design investment; share placement; Q4 revenue jump & EV target lift; IR calendar for Q3. 15

Note: This report is for information only and is not investment advice. Figures and quotes are as of the cited dates (chiefly Nov 5, 2025 and the prior few days).