Zeta Global (ZETA) – 17th Straight Beat & Raise Quarter Ignites AI-Cloud Rally

Ticker/Price: ZETA (NYSE) – closed Nov 4, 2025 at $16.70 (–5.2% on the day) ^[1], with after-hours trading around $18.06 ^[2]. Market cap ≈$3.97 billion ^[3]. 52-week range: $10.69–38.20 ^[4]. Beta ~1.3.
YTD Performance: ~–7% YTD (from ~$18 to ~$16.70) ^[5]. Roughly –54% off its Nov 2024 high (~$36.7) ^[6]. Shares have been volatile (≈52 moves of ±5% in past year ^[7]) amid swings in the tech sector.
Business: Zeta is an AI-powered digital marketing cloud. The platform unifies identity, analytics and omnichannel advertising, using “advanced AI and trillions of consumer signals” to help marketers predict intent ^[8]. Its focus on identity and privacy-friendly data analytics positions it for modern marketing (e.g. Apple’s privacy changes).
Customers: Zeta now has 180 “super-scaled” customers (each generating >$1 M/yr), up 25% YoY ^[9]. Management says this, combined with new partnerships, fuels market-share gains.
Recent Results: In Q3 FY2025 (period ended Sep 30), Zeta reported $337.4 M revenue, +26% Y/Y ^[10] (28% Y/Y excluding an out-of-period gain). This was the 17th straight quarter beating guidance. Net cash from operations was $58 M (+68% Y/Y) and free cash flow $47 M (+83% Y/Y) ^[11], achieving a 14% adjusted EBITDA margin and the “Rule of 40” (growth rate + FCF margin ≥40) ^[12].
Guidance: Zeta raised its outlook. FY2025 revenue guidance was lifted to $1.273–1.276 B (+27% Y/Y) ^[13] (previously ~$1.26 B). Initial FY2026 guidance: $1.540 B (+21% Y/Y), with ~$354 M adjusted EBITDA and $209 M free cash flow (≈59% conversion) ^[14]. Q4’25 revenue is guided at $363–366 M (+15–16% Y/Y) ^[15]; this excludes any contribution from the planned Marigold (Selligent) acquisition closing in Q4 ^[16].
Shareholders: In July 2025, Zeta’s board authorized a $200 M share repurchase program (through 2027) ^[17], supplementing the prior program which used up ~$85 M in early 2025 ^[18]. Insider ownership ~13% (founders), institutions ~88% ^[19]. Short interest ~13.5% of float (as of Oct’25) ^[20], a sign of some bearish bets.
Analyst Consensus: “Strong Buy” – 14 (or 16) analysts rate ZETA a Buy, with an average 12-month price target of about $28 ^[21] (67% above current price). The high target is $45 and low $12 ^[22], reflecting diverging views. Recent firm actions: Truist and Needham (Oct’25) reiterated Buy with targets ~$25–36 ^[23] ^[24]. StockAnalysis.com notes an average target $28 (≈+68% upside) and “Strong Buy” consensus ^[25].
Investor Sentiment: Recent news sentiment has been mixed. Tech/AI stocks were under pressure on Nov 4, 2025 (Nasdaq fell ~1.4% as AI rally fears crept in ^[26]). Indeed, ZETA fell ~3.1% Nov 4 a.m. amid a broad tech selloff ^[27]. However, long-term investor interest remains high given the growth outlook. Zeta has been featured in 13+ news articles this week (vs. 0.65 avg sentiment last 30 days ^[28]).

Stock Performance & Valuation

Zeta’s stock has trended down from its late-2024 highs (~$36.7) as broader growth-tech valuation pressures emerged. At the Nov 4 close, ZETA was ~$16.70 ^[29], near its 52-week low and well below its peak. Over the year it’s down ~–7% ^[30] (since start-2025), while smaller tech peers have also lagged. On Nov 4 its volume was ~11.2 M shares ^[31], reflecting heavy trading after earnings.

Technically, ZETA carries a higher beta (~1.28 ^[32]) so it tends to amplify tech market moves. The stock’s drop on Nov 4 (–5.2% on the close ^[33]) came ahead of the after-market earnings release, amid a weak tech sector. In pre-earnings trading, it had spiked ~+5.1% on Oct 31 after positive tech news (Amazon earnings) ^[34]. Overall since IPO (Jun 2021 at $10–12), the stock is up ~92% (a $1k IPO stake → ~$1,918 now ^[35]), but it’s been volatile.

Valuation: On trailing figures, Zeta is still unprofitable (LTM GAAP net loss ≈–$36.6 M ^[36]), so no P/E. However, the forward P/E (~22x 2025E) is moderate given growth ^[37]. The price/sales is ≈3.4 (market cap ~$3.97B vs. TTM revenue ~$1.16B ^[38]). Analysts justify this with expected margin expansion – Zeta’s guidance implies 2026 EBITDA margin ~23% ^[39]. The company cites a “rule of 40” achievement (growth+FCF margin) as evidence of mature, profitable expansion ^[40]. By comparison, marketing cloud peers (e.g. Salesforce, Adobe) trade higher on growth (P/S 8–10), so ZETA’s valuation reflects both its growth and current losses.

Recent News & Company Events

Q3’25 Earnings (Nov 4, 2025) – Zeta reported a beat-and-raise quarter: revenue $337.4 M, +26% Y/Y (adj. +28% Y/Y) ^[41] vs. guidance ~$328 M. Adjusted EBITDA was $66.4 M (19.7% margin) ^[42], above expectations. Free cash flow ($47M) and cashflow margin (14%) both surged (FCF +83% Y/Y) ^[43], allowing management to say they hit the “rule of 40” ^[44]. CEO David Steinberg enthused that “demand for [Zeta’s] AI-powered marketing platform” drove “industry-leading growth” ^[45], and he highlighted the new “Athena by Zeta” AI agent (debuted Oct 9) as reinforcing Zeta’s leadership ^[46] ^[47]. CFO Chris Greiner said the results show “durable, predictable, and profitable growth,” giving confidence to raise guidance ^[48] ^[49].

Guidance Raised: Zeta pushed FY2025 revenue guidance to $1.273–1.276 B (+27% Y/Y) ^[50], above prior $1.256–1.266 B. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was lifted to ~$295–$297 M (≈23.1% margin) ^[51]. On the call, management noted Q3 results easily exceeded the guidance midpoint and implied momentum into 2026. It provided an initial 2026 outlook: revenue $1.540 B (+21% Y/Y) and Adj. EBITDA $354 M (23% margin) ^[52], with about 59% free-cash-flow conversion (FCF $209 M).

Product & Strategy: In October’s Zeta Live 2025 conference, Zeta unveiled Athena by Zeta™, a conversational superintelligent AI assistant for marketers ^[53]. Athena and an “agentic AI” app suite (advisor, workflows, simulator, analytics) are designed to automate campaign planning and execution ^[54] ^[55]. Management repeatedly emphasizes AI as Zeta’s core (“AI isn’t a feature, it’s the foundation” ^[56]), and the new tools feed into its marketing platform. Earlier this year, Zeta also launched a “Generative Engine Optimization” solution (Sept 2025) and a predictive AI module, reflecting the industry’s AI shift.

M&A: Zeta is acquiring Marigold’s enterprise software business (owner of Selligent and Campaign Monitor) in a ~$330–$350 M deal announced Sept 30 ^[57]. This bolt-on brings additional marketing SaaS products and customers. Management said Q4 guidance excludes Marigold’s contribution, and will update guidance after closing (expected Q4’25) ^[58]. This acquisition underscores Zeta’s consolidation of marketing tech, alongside the Marigold deal it expects to finalize in Q4.

Repurchase: On July 23, 2025 Zeta authorized a new $200 M buyback program (through Dec 2027) ^[59]. By Q3 all $100 M of the prior plan had been spent ^[60]. The aggressive buyback signals management’s confidence and willingness to return cash.

Market Reaction: The Nov 4 report triggered mixed moves. In pre-market trading the stock fell ~3.1% as tech stocks pulled back on global growth/AI worries ^[61]. However, after hours, ZETA spiked ~8%, suggesting investors cheered the strong beats and raised outlook. Over the past week (as of Nov 4) ZETA has mostly traded in $17–18 range, reflecting anticipation of earnings.

Financial Analysis

Zeta has demonstrated high growth but limited GAAP profit to date. For FY2024, revenue was $1.01 B (up +38% Y/Y) ^[62]. Operating losses narrowed to ~$69.8 M (–63% vs prior) ^[63], as the company reinvested in AI and sales. In the last 12 months it lost $36.6 M ^[64], but non-GAAP metrics are positive: trailing EBITDA and cash flow are healthy.

Recent Quarter: Q3’25 non-GAAP EPS was $0.06, vs. Consensus $0.17 (beat was largely due to lower stock comp and timing) ^[65]. GAAP EPS wasn’t provided (reconciliations omitted), but management’s focus is on cash and software metrics. Gross margin is very high (~85-90%), reflecting cloud software model; operating expenses are driving the shortfall.

Valuation Metrics: At current price, ZETA’s forward P/E ~22x ^[66] (using 2025 EPS). Price/Sales is ~3.4. This compares to higher multiples for large SaaS peers but is in line with smaller “growth at scale” tech names. Given Zeta’s projected >20% growth and improving margins (≈21–23% EBITDA margin guidance), the valuation can be justified by its growth/FCF profile. The stock’s Rule-of-40 compliance ^[67] and large cash flow ramp have helped justify a premium. Even after its decline, ZETA trades at roughly the same sales multiple it did in mid-2024, despite far higher revenue and FCF today.

Financial Position: Zeta’s balance sheet is clean. Cash & equivalents were $288 M at Sept 30, 2025 (up from $230M a year prior), with no material debt on the balance sheet. Free cash flow has become consistently positive (e.g. ~$47 M in Q3, 14% FCF margin) ^[68]. Return on invested capital is negative currently, but should turn positive as growth matures. Management’s emphasis on margin expansion suggests profitability by 2026–27.

Analysts & Forecasts

Zeta is on many analysts’ “buy” lists. StockAnalysis.com reports 14 analysts with a consensus rating of Strong Buy and 12‑month target $28.0 ^[69] (≈+67% upside). Benzinga similarly finds an average target $28 (high $45 from Craig-Hallum on Nov 2024; low $12 from Morgan Stanley on Feb 2024) ^[70]. Recent firm actions: Truist (10/9/25) reaffirmed Buy, raised PT to $36 ^[71]; Needham (10/9) reiterated Buy, $25 PT ^[72]; Canaccord (10/1) raised PT to $30, Buy ^[73]. Only a few (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley) have “Neutral/Equal-Weight” ratings at ~$16–18 PT (Aug 2025) ^[74] ^[75]. The divergence reflects uncertainty: bullish analysts point to Zeta’s growth trajectory and AI leadership, while cautious ones note high spending and competition.

Price Targets: The current consensus target (≈$28) implies ~60–70% upside. Some analysts believe ZETA can reach $30+ as the company scales. For example, an analyst note in October 2025 said Zeta “remains a buy with intrinsic value near $30, despite recent volatility” and that the market underestimates its growth potential (Seeking Alpha, Oct 10, 2025). Others highlight the “17 consecutive quarters of 20%+ growth” and the pivot to profitability as reasons for optimism. Overall, professional sentiment is strongly positive – Zeta’s Analyst Consensus: Buy ^[76] ^[77].

Sentiment & Coverage: Institutional buying has been strong (88% held by institutions ^[78]) and retail chatter (e.g. investor forums) is upbeat post-earnings. Short interest is moderately high (~13%), so any overly bullish move could squeeze shorts. On social/sentiment, the stock had a modestly negative tone around earnings, but buy-side calls (e.g. Mizuho, UBS) have highlighted the business fundamentals.

Industry & Macro Context

Zeta operates in digital marketing and ad-tech, currently a hot area due to AI and privacy trends. Global digital ad spending is projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2025 (with 75% digital) ^[79], and companies are seeking AI-driven solutions to reach consumers more efficiently. Industry leaders (Google, Adobe, Salesforce) are embedding AI into their marketing clouds, and Zeta’s “AI Marketing Cloud” branding is well-aligned. For example, Google predicts that by 2025 AI-powered marketing agents (the “Chief Simplifier Officer”) will transform campaign management – exactly the niche Zeta’s Athena aims to fill.

Privacy changes (e.g. Apple’s IDFA, cookie deprecation) have complicated targeting; Zeta’s emphasis on identity graph and opt-in data helps it navigate this environment. The company also touts its ability to measure cross-channel marketing effectiveness (“marketing mix models”), matching broader industry trends ^[80].

Macroeconomic headwinds include high interest rates and cautious ad budgets. In late 2025, many tech stocks, especially AI-related names, have corrected as investors reprice growth. Zeta’s stock fell on Nov 4 on such fears ^[81], even as its own earnings were strong. If the economy slows, advertising budgets could tighten, which would pressure Zeta’s smaller clients; however, Zeta’s large “super-scaled” client base (180+ enterprises) provides some insulation. In sum, Zeta’s industry tailwinds (AI/Big Data, digital ad growth) are strong, but investors will watch macro and execution risks.

Outlook and Forecast

Given its track record and guidance, Zeta is expected to keep growing revenues ~20–30% annually. The consensus is that Zeta will cross $2 B in revenue by ~2028 (as some analysts project), with expanding margins. We summarize projections: FY2025E ~$1.27B (27% growth), FY2026E ~$1.54B (21% growth) ^[82]. Gross and EBITDA margins are forecast to rise into the low-mid 20% range by 2026. Net profit should turn positive in the 2026–27 timeframe as operating leverage kicks in.

Stock Forecast: Analysts’ 12-mo average target $28 ^[83] (median $28 ^[84]) suggests +60–70% potential from current levels. If Zeta sustains its beat-and-raise pattern and the Marigold acquisition contributes as expected, many see room for further re-rating. A few price targets are even higher: e.g. RBC’s Matthew Swanson had a $30 (then $30) PT (maintain Outperform) ^[85], and Craig-Hallum (Nov 2024) had $45.

Risks: Key risks include slowing sales growth (if competition intensifies or budgets shrink), inability to integrate acquisitions, and execution on AI product roadmap. On Nov 4, shares dipped on the broad-market tech pullback ^[86], showing that Zeta is still subject to sector sentiment. Also, Zeta’s high short interest (13%) means negative news could be amplified. The stock has ~8% insider/insider-like ownership, so executive incentive alignment is strong.

Conclusion: Zeta Global is a high-growth SaaS story transitioning toward profitability. Its Q3 results and raised guidance reinforce the bullish thesis: strong customer momentum, robust cash flow, and a leading AI-driven platform. With a buyback in play and nearly all analysts bullish, sentiment is positive. The company’s progress in AI personalization (Athena, etc.) fits major industry trends. If the macro tech rally resumes, ZETA could trade significantly higher. For now, risk/reward seems tilted to the upside (consensus target ~$28) if execution remains on track.

Sources: Company press releases and filings ^[87] ^[88] ^[89]; market data from StockAnalysis/YahooFinance ^[90] ^[91]; analyst data from Benzinga and MarketScreener ^[92] ^[93]; news coverage and industry analysis ^[94] ^[95] (see citations).