Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) Share Price on 2 December 2025: Buyback, Nasdaq Ambitions, Regulatory Scrutiny and 2026 Stock Forecast

Zip Co share price today

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) is trading sharply lower on 2 December 2025, giving investors another reminder of just how volatile buy now, pay later (BNPL) stocks can be.

Intraday data from market platforms shows Zip changing hands around A$2.97–A$2.99, down about 10% from the previous close of A$3.30. The intraday range has been roughly A$2.97 to A$3.21, versus a 52‑week range of A$1.09 to A$4.93. ^[1]

That means the stock now trades about 40% below its recent 52‑week high near A$4.93, reached after a strong October quarter update and optimism around Zip’s turnaround story. ^[2]

Despite today’s fall, Zip remains one of the more closely watched names on the ASX 200 growth radar because the underlying business has moved from survival mode to scaling profitable growth.

From survival mode to profitable scale: FY25 and Q1 FY26

FY25: crossing A$1 billion in income

Zip’s FY25 numbers marked a decisive shift away from the “cash burn” narrative that dogged BNPL names in 2022–23:

Total income / revenue: just over A$1.07 billion, up about 23% year on year.
Cash EBTDA: about A$170.3 million, up 147% versus FY24.
Operating margin (cash EBTDA / income):15.8%, roughly double the prior year.
Total transaction volume (TTV):A$13.1 billion, up 30.3% year on year. ^[3]

Management and market commentary around the FY25 result emphasised:

The United States as Zip’s main earnings engine.
Improved credit quality with bad debts under control.
A shift to sustained positive cash earnings, rather than one‑off profitable quarters. TS2 Tech

1Q FY26: record quarter and margin expansion

Momentum continued into the first quarter of FY26 (three months to 30 September 2025):

Record cash EBTDA: A$62.8 million, up ~98% vs 1Q FY25.
TTV: A$3.9 billion, up 38.7% year on year.
Total income: about A$321–322 million, up 32.8%.
Operating margin:~19.5% vs about 13.1% a year earlier.
Active customers:6.4 million, up 5.3%.
Merchants:~87,500+, up about 9%. ^[4]

Growth was especially strong in the U.S.: TTV and revenue rose by roughly 47% and 51% (in USD), while U.S. customer numbers climbed by about 12%. TS2 Tech+1

The market liked what it saw. Immediately after the Q1 update, Zip shares spiked more than 10% intraday to around A$4.93, their highest level in over three and a half years, as brokers described the result as either “in line or ahead” of expectations across most metrics. ^[5]

Funding, capital and buy‑back: Zip’s strengthened balance sheet

A big part of the 2025 story is that Zip isn’t just growing; it has re‑engineered its funding and capital structure.

New warehouse facility and cheaper debt

On 7 November 2025, Zip released a funding and capital update detailing several major moves:

A new US$283.4 million U.S. warehouse facility with a two‑year term, extending capacity into 2027.
A new A$400 million rated note in Australia, priced at a 1.37% margin, roughly 76 basis points cheaper than comparable deals in 2024.
Combined, these deals pushed undrawn capacity to about US$348 million in the U.S. and A$344 million in ANZ, significantly expanding growth headroom. ^[6]

Commentary around the update highlighted that Zip’s weighted average Australian funding margin has dropped from more than 2% in late 2024 to around 1.37% now – real money saved in a capital‑intensive, credit‑driven business. ^[7]

A$100 million on‑market buyback

Zip has also leaned hard into capital management:

In April 2025, it launched a A$50 million on‑market buyback, signalling confidence in its balance sheet and outlook. TS2 Tech
On 20 October 2025 – alongside the 1Q FY26 update – Zip doubled the buyback capacity to A$100 million. TS2 Tech+1
By mid‑November, company disclosures and secondary commentary suggested roughly 22–23 million shares had already been repurchased, representing more than half of the authorised program. ^[8]

Buybacks of that magnitude are notable in a sector where many peers are still focused on repairing balance sheets rather than returning capital.

Strategy in 2025: focus on core markets, U.S. push and possible Nasdaq listing

After years of rapid geographic expansion followed by painful exits from non‑core markets, Zip has spent the last 18–24 months refocusing on three main regions: Australia, New Zealand and the United States. ^[9]

Analysis from independent outlets describes the company’s story as a transition from “stabilisation to expansion”, driven by:

Concentration on scalable, higher‑return markets.
Tighter cost control and data‑driven risk management.
Deepening merchant partnerships and a broader suite of digital credit tools. ^[10]

Nasdaq dual‑listing ambitions

In its FY25 investor presentation, Zip confirmed it is exploring a dual listing on Nasdaq, while keeping its primary listing in Australia. TS2 Tech+1

A potential U.S. listing could:

Broaden Zip’s shareholder base among U.S. growth and fintech investors.
Better align its listing venue with its largest growth market.
Potentially improve liquidity and valuation multiples over time.

But it would also introduce additional reporting requirements, costs and sensitivity to U.S. market sentiment – another execution challenge investors have to discount.

Partnerships and product reach

In 2025 Zip has also pushed deeper into embedded finance:

A Stripe partnership expansion announced in October is intended to make Zip more tightly integrated at checkout for a wide range of global merchants, boosting TTV potential. TS2 Tech
A May 2025 partnership with CardCash (via Giftify) extended Zip’s BNPL capability into the secondary gift‑card marketplace in the U.S. ^[11]

These moves are designed to scale volumes without having to win every merchant relationship one by one.

Fresh regulatory overhang for BNPL stocks

While Zip’s fundamentals have improved dramatically, regulation has stepped into the spotlight again this week – and that matters for every BNPL valuation.

On 1 December 2025, a coalition of seven U.S. state attorneys general, led by Connecticut’s William Tong and North Carolina’s Jeff Jackson, announced a coordinated inquiry into the six largest BNPL lenders: Affirm, Afterpay, Klarna, PayPal, Sezzle – and Zip. ^[12]

The states are demanding detailed information on:

Pricing and fee structures.
Repayment terms and how companies assess consumers’ ability to pay.
User agreements and disclosures.

The stated goal is to determine whether BNPL products are compliant with state consumer‑protection laws and whether they are creating “debt traps” for vulnerable shoppers during the holiday season. ^[13]

This comes on top of:

A long‑running federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) inquiry into BNPL and its treatment as a form of credit. ^[14]
Rising political scrutiny, with U.S. senators recently seeking more data on BNPL usage and risk. ^[15]

For Zip investors, the takeaway is clear: regulatory risk in the U.S. – its most important growth market – is rising, not falling, and could affect product design, marketing and possibly credit economics over time.

What analysts are saying about Zip stock now

Despite today’s sell‑off and the regulatory noise, most broker and data‑aggregator coverage remains constructive on Zip’s medium‑term prospects.

Target prices: clustered well above today’s level

Across several platforms, the 12‑month price targets for Zip are broadly aligned:

TradingView: average target around A$5.36, with a range of roughly A$4.50 to A$6.20. TS2 Tech+1
Moomoo: average close to A$5.10, with similar A$4.5–6.2 range (data updated in early November). ^[16]
Fintel: average one‑year target about A$5.43, based on a recent projection window with a high of A$6.51 and low of A$4.54. ^[17]
Investing.com: average target around A$5.10, implying roughly 70% upside, with 8 analysts rating the stock a Buy and none recommending Sell. ^[18]

With the share price near A$2.97–A$2.99, these consensus‑style targets cluster around A$5.1–5.4, implying roughly 70–80% upside if those forecasts prove accurate. ^[19]

Recent broker moves

A late‑November 2025 note highlighted that UBS reiterated a Buy rating and a A$5.40 price target, even after the share price had fallen more than 30% from its highs. ^[20]
Fintel’s quantitative summary shows a P/E ratio near 55 and a price‑to‑book above 6, underscoring that Zip trades on growth metrics rather than traditional value measures. ^[21]

In other words, the Street is generally bullish, but the stock already carries a valuation that bakes in continued growth, robust credit performance and smooth strategic execution.

Technical picture: short‑term caution after a big run

Not everyone looking at Zip is focused on fundamentals. Short‑term technical analysis services are considerably more cautious after the stock’s recent rally and subsequent pullback.

A fresh technical review from StockInvest describes Zip as a “sell candidate” since 28 November and notes: ^[22]

The share price fell 2.94% on 1 December, from A$3.40 to A$3.30, on rising volume of around 14 million shares.
The stock sits in the upper part of a very wide, falling short‑term trend, which the service views as a typical zone for profit‑taking.
Their model projects a potential 33% decline over the next three months, with a 90% confidence interval pointing to a range of A$1.75–A$2.25 if current conditions persist.

They also flag Zip as “high risk” due to its daily volatility (around 4–5% on average) and wide Bollinger Bands. ^[23]

That’s an important counterweight to the upbeat fundamental and broker narrative: even if the business is healthier, the share price can still swing violently, especially after a multi‑hundred‑percent move over the past year. TS2 Tech+1

How the AGM and governance backdrop look

Zip’s 2025 Annual General Meeting in early November was notably uneventful in governance terms:

All AGM resolutions were passed by poll, signalling broad shareholder support for the board and strategy. ^[24]
The company used the AGM and associated materials to reiterate its focus on sustainable, profitable growth in ANZ and the U.S., as well as its capital‑management framework. ^[25]

Earlier in 2025, founder Larry Diamond stepped back from remaining executive roles, with CEO Cynthia Scott now the clear public face of the turnaround. Recent director‑dealings data show several independent directors buying on‑market during 2025, which some investors read as a vote of confidence in the strategy. TS2 Tech+1

Key risks to watch in December 2025

As of 2 December 2025, investors eyeing Zip stock are balancing a clear turnaround story against a non‑trivial set of risks:

Regulatory clamp‑down in BNPL
- State‑level investigations in the U.S. targeting Zip and other BNPL providers could lead to tighter rules on fees, disclosures and underwriting. ^[26]
- Global regulators are increasingly inclined to treat BNPL more like traditional credit, which may mean more friction at checkout and higher compliance costs. ^[27]
Credit and macro risk
- BNPL demand is deeply linked to consumer health. Any deterioration in U.S. or Australian employment, wage growth or inflation could push arrears higher and force Zip to tighten approval criteria.
Valuation and volatility
- A P/E north of 50 and high beta mean Zip’s share price can over‑react both to good and bad news. A single soft quarter on U.S. growth or credit metrics could compress multiples quickly. ^[28]
Competitive pressure
- Global players like Block (Afterpay), Klarna and Affirm, as well as banks and card schemes, are fighting for the same customers and merchants. Maintaining Zip’s margin profile while competing aggressively will require precise execution. ^[29]
Execution on Nasdaq listing and partnerships
- A dual listing and deeper integrations with partners such as Stripe could be powerful long‑term catalysts, but any mis‑step – delays, higher than expected costs, or lukewarm U.S. investor reception – could dent the growth narrative. TS2 Tech+1

Bottom line: where Zip Co stands for 2026 after today’s drop

Put together, the picture of Zip Co as of 2 December 2025 looks like this:

A profitable, fast‑growing fintech that has pulled off a material turnaround and is now scaling in its core markets. ^[30]
A balance sheet that is much stronger than two years ago, with cheaper funding, expanded warehouse capacity and an active A$100 million buyback. ^[31]
A share price that has fallen hard in recent days, sits far below recent highs, but is still valued on aggressive growth assumptions. ^[32]
A consensus analyst community that sees substantial upside over 12 months – but a set of technical models warning that the next move might be down before any long‑term targets are reached. TS2 Tech+2Fintel+2
A regulatory backdrop that has just become meaningfully more complex, particularly in the United States, where state attorneys general are demanding detailed data from Zip and its BNPL peers. ^[33]

For investors, that mix of strong fundamentals, high volatility, rich valuation and rising regulatory risk means Zip Co remains a high‑beta, high‑conviction story rather than a steady compounder. Anyone considering exposure needs to weigh the potential rewards of U.S.‑led growth and a possible Nasdaq listing against the risk that BNPL rules, credit conditions or sentiment turn against the sector again.