Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) closed out the week with investors juggling two very different kinds of catalysts: the steady drip of capital-management filings (buyback updates, cancellations, and equity incentives) and the bigger narrative around US growth and a potential US dual listing.
On Zip’s investor page, the company’s share price is shown at A$3.01 as at 12 December (16:20). [1]
MarketScreener also shows Zip around A$3.01 on the day and highlights a notably wide gap between price and street targets: 10 analysts, a mean consensus “BUY,” and an average target price of A$5.095 versus a last close around A$3.00. [2]
So what’s new today (12.12.2025), and what are analysts actually watching?
What happened on 12 December 2025: fresh equity incentive disclosures
Zip posted multiple ASX filings dated 12 December 2025, and the headline theme is equity incentives and director disclosures rather than a change to earnings guidance. [3]
1) Zip issued 1,798,424 new performance rights (unquoted)
Zip disclosed the issue of 1,798,424 performance rights (ASX code ZIPAM) under an employee incentive scheme, not intended to be quoted on the ASX. [4]
Importantly for investors who track executive incentives, Zip’s Appendix 3G also lists allocations to key management personnel (KMP), including (among others) Cynthia Scott, Gordon Bell, Joseph Heck, and Soraya Alali with the numbers specified in the filing. [5]
Why it matters: performance rights are typically dilutive only if/when they vest and convert into ordinary shares. But they’re still a signal: the board is continuing to use equity-linked pay to tie leadership outcomes to performance.
2) 10,118 performance rights converted into ordinary shares
A separate Appendix 3G filing shows 10,118 performance rights (ZIPAM) converting into 10,118 ordinary fully paid shares (ZIP), with the document noting this relates to KMP Cynthia Scott and the Zip employee share trust structure. [6]
3) Director interest notice: Cynthia Scott disclosure
Zip also released an Appendix 3Y (“Change of Director’s Interest Notice”) for Cynthia Scott, detailing changes including the grant of performance rights and movements associated with vested/converted rights and share holdings (including trust-related holdings). [7]
Big picture: none of these filings, by themselves, change Zip’s operating fundamentals overnight. But they do affect the “share count story” (dilution vs buybacks) and keep governance-focused investors well-fed with detail.
Buyback updates: the “share count gravity” continues
Zip’s other big capital-management lever in late 2025 has been its on-market buyback.
Latest daily buyback notice (10 Dec 2025)
In the Appendix 3C “daily buy-back notification” dated 10 December 2025, Zip reported:
- 32,287,407 shares bought back before the previous day
- 1,116,798 shares bought back on the previous day (9 Dec)
- Total consideration figures disclosed for both buckets, including AUD 92,019,176.94 (before) and AUD 3,498,250.34 (previous day)
- A “highest price allowed” field shown at A$3.15 for the previous day under listing rule 7.33 (per the form) [8]
The earlier 9 December 2025 Appendix 3C update similarly reported 650,000 shares bought back on the previous day (8 Dec), along with consideration paid and the program’s stated dates. [9]
Shares cancelled due to buyback
On 11 December 2025, Zip filed an Appendix 3H showing 5,545,784 ordinary shares ceased due to cancellation pursuant to an on-market buy-back, with a cessation date listed as 27/11/2025. [10]
Why it matters: buybacks can offset dilution from equity incentives and, when sustained, can change per-share metrics. The market tends to treat “ongoing buyback flow” like a mild but persistent tailwind—unless operating performance disappoints or funding costs spike.
Zip’s near-term operating tone: resilient consumers and ANZ momentum
Not all of today’s relevant “news” is a formal ASX form.
In The Australian’s CEO survey coverage published today, Zip CEO Cynthia Scott described Zip’s Australian customer base as representing around 10% of the Australian adult population, and pointed to first-quarter fiscal 2026 momentum, including Australia & New Zealand total transaction volume up 11.1% year-on-year and higher spending across age cohorts versus the prior year’s quarter. [11]
That kind of commentary matters because Zip’s valuation (and the “growth multiple” investors pay) is extremely sensitive to the idea that the platform can grow through cycles without blowing out credit losses.
US dual listing: the high-voltage strategic storyline
Zip has been explicitly working the US capital-markets narrative for months.
In an ASX release dated 10 November 2025, Zip said it had submitted a confidential draft registration statement to the US SEC relating to a potential US dual listing, while emphasizing that any dual listing remains subject to board approval, regulatory steps, and market conditions. [12]
Earlier, Reuters reported that Zip was considering a Nasdaq listing while maintaining its primary Australian listing, framing it as part of a broader story: strong earnings momentum, US-led growth, and investor appetite for the turnaround. [13]
Investor logic in one sentence: a credible US listing pathway can potentially broaden Zip’s investor base and liquidity—useful if the company wants to be valued more like a US fintech than an “ASX BNPL survivor.”
Regulatory watch: US state attorneys general inquiry
On 2 December 2025, Zip published a statement responding to an inquiry from State Attorneys General offices in the US BNPL industry. Zip said it is assessing the voluntary request, and stated it continues to operate consistent with the CFPB’s BNPL interpretive rule despite the rule’s rescission, while supporting “fit-for-purpose regulation.” [14]
Why it matters: BNPL is a regulation magnet. Even when an inquiry doesn’t become formal enforcement, it can create headline risk and raise questions about future compliance costs or product constraints—especially in the US, where Zip has been leaning hard into growth expectations.
Funding and balance sheet: cheaper funding, more capacity
Zip’s growth engine is only as strong as its funding engine.
In its 7 November 2025 “Funding and capital update,” Zip disclosed:
- A new US$283.4m US warehouse facility with a two-year term and “high-quality funding partners” (available for drawdown) [15]
- A new A$400m rated note issuance within its Master Trust priced at a weighted average margin of 1.37%, compared with 1.79% (July 2025) and 2.13% (September 2024) for prior public ABS term deals [16]
- Undrawn/available headroom as at 31 Oct 2025 of US$348.4m (US) and A$344.3m (Australia) to fund receivables growth [17]
- An on-market buyback progress note: 21.4m shares purchased for $58.4m to date under the (up to) $100m program at that time [18]
This matters because, for a credit-and-payments business, the market will often reward “growth” only if it comes with improving funding efficiency and contained loss rates.
Analyst forecasts and valuation: bullish targets, but the multiple is doing push-ups
Consensus targets (as of 12 Dec 2025)
MarketScreener’s snapshot shows Zip with a mean consensus BUY, 10 analysts, and an average target price of A$5.095 versus a last close around A$3.00—a large implied gap. [19]
Growth assumptions behind the optimism
Reuters coverage earlier in the year tied bull cases to US expansion and improving credit metrics. For example, Reuters reported Zip expected over 35% growth in US total transaction volume (TTV) in FY26, and cited Citi analysts modeling cash EBTDA outcomes above consensus (in that specific report context). [20]
Separately, Reuters/Refinitiv reporting around Zip’s FY26 first-quarter update highlighted Zip’s group cash EBTDA figure (reported there as A$62.8m for Q1FY26) and referenced expectations for strong US TTV growth. [21]
The valuation pushback
A useful counterweight comes from Simply Wall St’s recent “valuation check,” which notes that Zip trades on a high earnings multiple (it cites 47.7x P/E versus an industry figure), arguing the market may already be pricing in substantial future execution. [22]
In plain English: analysts can see big upside if Zip executes, but the stock’s multiple is not forgiving—bad news tends to travel faster than good news when expectations are high.
What investors are watching next (and why ZIP can move fast)
Zip’s stock has shown it can pop hard on momentum days—FNArena’s ASX “winners and losers” recap from 8 Dec 2025 lists ZIP among notable movers on the day. [23]
Going forward, the practical “catalyst checklist” looks like this:
- Buyback pace and cancellations: daily Appendix 3C updates and periodic Appendix 3H cancellations can influence sentiment and per-share math. [24]
- US dual listing progress: SEC process milestones and board decisions can change the story quickly. [25]
- Regulatory headlines in the US: any follow-on developments from the State AG inquiry could affect risk perception. [26]
- Credit performance and funding costs: Zip has pointed to improved funding economics and additional capacity; markets will watch whether that translates into profitable growth. [27]
- Operating momentum in ANZ and the US: management commentary has emphasized transaction volume growth and customer engagement—numbers that will be tested in upcoming updates. [28]
Bottom line
As of 12 December 2025, Zip’s newsflow is a blend of “boring but important” market filings (performance rights, director disclosures, buyback reporting, and share cancellations) and the bigger strategic arc: US expansion plus a potential US dual listing, with regulation as the ever-present storm cloud on the horizon. [29]
With the stock around A$3.01, and consensus targets on some trackers still materially higher, ZIP remains a company where execution and headlines can both move the price—sometimes in the same week, occasionally on the same day. [30]
References
1. zip.co, 2. www.marketscreener.com, 3. zip.co, 4. yourir.info, 5. yourir.info, 6. yourir.info, 7. yourir.info, 8. yourir.info, 9. yourir.info, 10. yourir.info, 11. www.theaustralian.com.au, 12. yourir.info, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. zip.co, 15. openbriefing.com, 16. openbriefing.com, 17. openbriefing.com, 18. openbriefing.com, 19. www.marketscreener.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.tradingview.com, 22. simplywall.st, 23. fnarena.com, 24. yourir.info, 25. yourir.info, 26. zip.co, 27. openbriefing.com, 28. www.theaustralian.com.au, 29. yourir.info, 30. zip.co
