Key facts (as of Sept 26, 2025)
- PPTA last trade: $21.16 (+$2.15, +11.3%); intraday range $18.65–$22.60 on ~9.0M shares.
- Fresh catalyst (today): Perpetua said it’s in talks with Glencore, Trafigura, Clarios and Sunshine Silver to secure a U.S. antimony refining partner; it plans to issue a formal RFP in the coming weeks with a final selection targeted for Q4 2025. 1
- Stock momentum: Intraday, shares touched a 12‑year high near $22.62 as the news hit. 2
- Last week: The U.S. Forest Service issued a conditional Notice to Proceed (NTP) for the Stibnite Gold–Antimony Project in Idaho; “early works” are expected to begin this fall after posting financial assurance. 3
- Resource scale: The site holds ~148M lbs of antimony and ~6M oz of gold; there are no current U.S. sources of mined antimony. 1
- Output (on start‑up): Once operational, Stibnite is expected to supply >35% of U.S. antimony needs and produce ~450,000 oz of gold per year (company target 2028). 4
- Balance sheet: Cash & equivalents ~$425.4M (Jun 30); ~$46.8M additional proceeds in July from the greenshoe; total equity deal proceeds ~$474M. 5
- Project financing plan: Company applied for up to $2.0B EXIM debt; management expects debt financing could close in 2026 if due diligence completes; project capex ~$2.2B; considering a royalty/stream up to 3.9% for $200–$250M. 6
- Analyst views (recent): HC Wainwright reiterated Buy with $30 PT (Sept 23); B. Riley Buy, $23 PT (Sept 10); several outlets show an average 12‑mo target roughly $24–$25 with “Strong Buy” consensus. 7
- Market context: China’s export controls/ban on antimony to the U.S. and curtailed shipments to the EU have tightened supply and lifted prices in 2025. 8
- Competitor backdrop: United States Antimony just won a DLA contract up to $245M to build a domestic stockpile — highlighting U.S. urgency in this metal. 9
- Legal risk: The Nez Perce Tribe filed suit (Aug 29, 2025) challenging federal approval of Stibnite; environmental groups continue to voice concerns. 10
- Rough market cap (today): ~$2.28B (price × ~107.6M basic shares). 11
What moved PPTA today
Reuters reported that Perpetua is negotiating with Glencore, Trafigura, Clarios and Sunshine Silver to refine antimony inside the U.S., a critical step because the company plans to mine but not refine the metal. Management expects to seek proposals within weeks and choose a partner by year‑end. CEO Jon Cherry said: “We are encouraged by emerging opportunities to expand domestic mineral processing capacity in America and intend to make well‑informed, market‑based decisions when selecting a partner.” 1
Perpetua also formally unveiled an RFP for the commercial downstream antimony processing path today, emphasizing that the RFP is separate from its U.S. Army–funded effort to secure mil‑spec antimony trisulfide under a DOTC agreement (up to $22.4M). The company’s target remains a Q4 2025 selection. 12
Company snapshot: critical minerals + gold, one project
Perpetua Resources (NASDAQ/TSX: PPTA) is advancing the Stibnite Gold–Antimony Project in Idaho, ~138 miles north of Boise. The deposit is notable for its antimony endowment (a strategic material for munitions, semiconductors, solar, and batteries) alongside a significant gold reserve base. Current estimates: ~148 million lbs antimony and ~6 million oz gold. No U.S. mines currently produce antimony, making Stibnite uniquely strategic. 1
The U.S. Forest Service issued its Final Record of Decision in January 2025, and on Sept 19 granted a conditional Notice to Proceed, allowing development to begin after Perpetua posts financial assurance; the company says early works should start this fall. 13
When operational, management and government statements project 450,000 oz/yr of gold and >35% of U.S. antimony supply, with 2028 commonly cited as the operational target. 4
Why this matters right now: supply chains & geopolitics
China’s export controls and ban on antimony shipments to the U.S. (announced Dec 2024, reinforced through 2025) have tightened global supply, pushed prices higher, and accelerated Western efforts to on‑shore both mining and processing. Multiple Reuters pieces through 2025 detail how shipments to the U.S. and EU plunged or required workarounds, underscoring the strategic premium on any credible non‑Chinese supply chain. 8
The Pentagon’s Defense Logistics Agency concurrently awarded a $245M contract to United States Antimony to build a domestic stockpile of antimony metal — a parallel move that validates government demand and urgency for the metal that Perpetua aims to mine. 9
Financial position & funding plan
- Cash: ~$425.4M at June 30, 2025, bolstered by equity financing in June; the underwriters’ greenshoe added ~$46.8M in July, bringing total offering + private placement proceeds to ~$474M. 5
- Project financing: Perpetua has applied for up to $2.0B in EXIM debt (application submitted May 2025); management says due diligence is ongoing with potential closing in 2026 if successful. It also outlines a $200–$250M royalty/stream (capped at 3.9% NSR) to help cover a ~$2.2B construction budget and related accounts. 6
Takeaway: The balance sheet is much stronger than a year ago thanks to equity raises, but the EXIM decision and any royalty/stream remain key swing factors for construction capital.
Analyst sentiment, targets & EPS outlook
- HC Wainwright: Buy, $30 PT (Sept 23, 2025). 7
- B. Riley: Buy, $23 PT (Sept 10, 2025). 14
- Consensus snapshot: Several aggregators show “Strong Buy” with an average 12‑month target around $24–$25 (range $19–$30). 15
- Modeled losses before production: One aggregation shows EPS ~‑$0.30 (2025), ~‑$0.09 (2026), moving toward positive in 2027 as the project advances. (Methodologies vary; treat as directional). 16
Zacks/Nasdaq also flagged weekly outperformance (+5.7% W/W as of midday today), consistent with the NTP + processing‑partner headlines. 17
Risks to monitor
- Permitting & litigation: The Nez Perce Tribe filed suit Aug 29, 2025 to overturn federal approval, citing treaty and environmental concerns — litigation that could delay timelines. Environmental advocates argue impacts to salmon habitat remain unacceptable; as Idaho Rivers United put it, “This is primarily a gold mine.” 10
- Commodity prices: Project economics hinge on gold and antimony prices; both have been volatile amid trade and macro shifts. (For antimony, China’s controls remain a swing factor.) 18
- Financing execution: EXIM underwriting is not guaranteed; royalty/stream terms could dilute future cash flow if priced during market stress. 6
- Processing dependency: Until a U.S. refining partner is locked in, Perpetua’s antimony value chain remains incomplete. Today’s RFP process is designed to solve this. 12
What to watch next (near‑term catalysts)
- Processing‑partner RFP issuance (coming weeks) and selection (Q4 2025 target). 12
- Posting of financial assurance and start of early‑works construction at Stibnite this fall. 19
- EXIM loan due diligence milestones and any royalty/stream announcements to round out the cap stack. 6
- Any antimony market moves from China/US/EU that could change price dynamics (further controls, stockpiling, or subsidies). 20
Deeper background & today’s voices
- CEO viewpoint: Jon Cherry emphasized the market‑driven approach to selecting a U.S. processing partner: “We are encouraged by emerging opportunities to expand domestic mineral processing capacity…” (full quote above). 1
- Environmental perspective: Idaho Rivers United argues that gold (not antimony) drives the mine’s economics and that long‑lived impacts are underappreciated: “This is primarily a gold mine,” said Sydney Anderson, urging stronger protections. 21
Valuation context (quick math, today)
Using ~107.6M basic shares (company investor deck) and $21.16 last trade, equity value ≈ $2.28B. This is pre‑EXIMdecision and before final cap‑stack terms; sensitivity to gold/antimony prices and financing costs is high. 11
Sources & notes
- Today’s news on partner talks & RFP: Reuters (Sept 26); Perpetua press release (Sept 26). 1
- USFS Notice to Proceed / early works: Company announcement (Sept 19); Reuters (Sept 19). 19
- Reserves & “no U.S. source” context: Reuters coverage (Sept 26). 1
- Output & 2028 timing: Reuters (Jan 3). 4
- Cash, financing, EXIM, royalty plan: Q2 10‑Q (Aug 2025) and June financing releases. 5
- Analyst PTs & consensus: Investing.com (HCW), MarketBeat (round‑up), StockAnalysis (consensus), WallStreetZen (EPS). 7
- China export restrictions & price effects: Reuters (Dec 2024–Jul 2025). 8
- US antimony stockpile contract: Reuters (Sept 23). 9
- Litigation & advocacy quotes: Court filing (Aug 29, 2025); Idaho Rivers United statement. 10
Data current as of Sept 26, 2025. This report is for information only and is not investment advice. All forward‑looking timelines and budgets remain subject to permitting, financing and market conditions.
