Tata Motors Stock Crash 40%: $4B EV Gamble, JLR Turmoil & Analyst Verdicts

• Ticker & Business: Tata Motors Ltd (NSE: TATAMOTORS, BSE: 500570) is the core auto arm of the $160B Tata Group. It’s a global automobile maker (cars, SUVs, trucks, buses) and 100%-owner of Jaguar Land Rover (UK)business-standard.comts2.tech. The company has two main segments: Passenger Vehicles (PV) (now including EVs and JLR) and Commercial Vehicles (CV) (trucks/buses)ts2.tech. Part of a 2025 corporate overhaul, on Oct 1, 2025 Tata Motors officially split into a PV/EV/JLR entity (to be called Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd.) and a CV entity (renamed Tata Motors Ltd.) on a 1:1 share basists2.tech1 .
• Market Valuation: As of mid-Oct 2025 Tata Motors’ market cap is about ₹2.43 lakh croreeconomictimes.indiatimes.comsmart-investing.in. The stock traded near ₹660/share on Oct 13 (pre-demerger) and roughly ₹400–420 on Oct 14 after the split adjustmenthindustantimes.commoneycontrol.com. Key metrics: trailing P/E ~11.4xsmart-investing.in, EPS (ttm) ~₹57.6economictimes.indiatimes.com. The 52-week range was roughly ₹376–₹935moneycontrol.com (the July 2024 high of ₹935 was hit before recent declines).
• Recent Earnings: Tata Motors reported Q1 FY2026 (Apr–Jun 2025) consolidated revenue ~₹1.037 lakh crore (down ~2.5% YoY) and net profit ₹4,003 crore (–62% YoY)business-standard.combusiness-standard.com. The steep profit drop reflects weak Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) results (JLR revenue –9.2% YoY) and softer domestic sales. In Q1 EVs were ~13% of PV volumesbusiness-standard.com. For FY2024-25 it paid a final dividend of ₹6.00/sharemoneycontrol.com (≈0.9% yield at current prices).
• Stock Performance (Oct 14, 2025): On Oct 14, 2025 (record date for the demerger) the stock opened around ₹400 on BSE (down ~40% from the Oct 13 close of ~₹660) due to the technical split adjustmenthindustantimes.com. It then rebounded to about ₹415 by mid-morning (a ~4% gain from the new base) as trading resumedmoneycontrol.com. Over the prior week (Oct 9–13) the share had already slid ~7% on demerger anticipationeconomictimes.indiatimes.com. (For context, the stock was down ~11% on the year by early Oct 20252 .)
• Key Metrics (Oct 2025): Market Cap ≈₹243,000 Creconomictimes.indiatimes.com; P/E ≈11.5×smart-investing.in; EPS (ttm) ~57.6economictimes.indiatimes.com; Dividend (FY24/25 final) ₹6.00moneycontrol.com; 52-wk High/Low: ~₹935/₹376moneycontrol.com. (See table below for recent financials.)

Source: Tata Motors Q1 FY2026 results (Business Standard)business-standard.combusiness-standard.com.

Latest News & Developments

• Demerger Effective Oct 1, 2025: Tata Motors completed its much-anticipated split on Oct 1, 2025, carving out its Commercial Vehicles arm into a separate listed companyts2.tech. Existing shareholders received 1 share of the new CV company for each Tata Motors share heldts2.techts2.tech. Post-split, “Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd” will house all passenger cars (including EVs) and Jaguar Land Rover, while the renamed “Tata Motors Ltd” CV company covers trucks/busests2.tech. Management says the “mirror shareholding” structure sharpens each business’s focus and should unlock value that was “conglomerate discounted”ts2.tech. Analysts noted the split provides pure-play CV and PV investment choices, though many caution that “JLR’s soft demand outlook and global headwinds remain a concern”3 .
• Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) Update: JLR has endured a challenging period. In Q2 FY2026 (Jul–Sep ’25) JLR wholesales were 66,165 units (–24.2% YoY), and retail sales 85,495 (–17.1%)media.jaguarlandrover.com, reflecting the impact of a planned wind-down of older Jaguar models and U.S. tariffs. Compounding this, a September ransomware attack on JLR’s UK plants halted production for ~6 weeks. CEO Adrian Mardell said, “It has been a challenging quarter for JLR. In the first two months our performance was robust… against the backdrop of the planned wind down of legacy Jaguar models and the impact of incremental US tariffs.” He added that from early September “we have been responding to a cyber incident, which shut down our production,” and that the company is prioritizing deliveries as plants restartmedia.jaguarlandrover.com. JLR began a phased manufacturing restart on Oct 8media.jaguarlandrover.com. Moody’s notes that after the Oct 1 demerger, JLR will account for over 90% of Tata Motors’ EBITDAeconomictimes.indiatimes.com. Credit agencies have acted accordingly: Moody’s (Sept 29) cut Tata’s outlook to Negative (while affirming Ba1), warning that full recovery will take “several months”4 .
• EV & Tech Push: Tata Motors is aggressively investing in electric vehicles. In June 2025 it announced a plan to spend up to ₹350 billion (~$4.1 billion) over 5 years on new EV models and technologyreuters.com. The goal is to nearly double its EV portfolio from 8 models to 15, including advanced tech features and CNG variantsreuters.com. Chairman N. Chandrasekaran said Tata has “pivoted to make all the strategic investments that are necessary. Our goal is to go global eventually” on EVsbusiness-reporter.com. Notably, Tata plans first long-range (500+ km) EVs on a new platform by 2025business-reporter.com. Other initiatives include building a domestic battery gigafactory (operational ~2026) – CFO P.B. Balaji says this will give Tata “greater control over the most expensive part” of EVs and help Tata remain “a dominant player” in India’s EV marketreuters.com. Tata also secured $1B from TPG and expects ~$750M from government EV incentives to fund this pushreuters.comreuters.com. Tata targets EVs rising from ~12% of its sales in 2024 to ~30% by 20305 .
• Global Footprint: Beyond India, Tata Motors has significant global exposure. Its JLR brands sell luxury cars in the UK, US, Europe, China and other markets (all saw volume declines in Q2media.jaguarlandrover.com). The former Tata Motors CV business exports trucks to markets like the Middle East, Africa, Southeast Asia and Europe. For example, Tata is buying European truck-maker Iveco (deal expected by Apr 2026) to bolster its global CV business – an investment that analysts say will be earnings-accretive at ~2× EV/EBITDAbusinesstoday.in. Subsidiaries like Tata Daewoo in South Korea and units in South Africa/Indonesia extend its reach. (In fact, Tata Motors’ public profile notes it “has operations in the UK, South Korea, Thailand, South Africa, and Indonesia,” including JLR and Daewoo6 .)
• Other News: Tata Group’s broader restructuring has also affected Tata Motors. For instance, Tata Investment Corp (a group holding co.) surged ~50% in Sept. after its IPO and stock-split, reflecting a wave of value-unlocking moves across the groupts2.techts2.tech. Analysts cite these events as part of a dynamic year for Tata stocks.

Financial Performance

Tata Motors’ latest financials show mixed trends:

• Q1 FY2026 (Apr–Jun 2025): Consolidated revenue ₹1.037 trillion (down 2.5% YoY) and net profit ₹4,003 cr (down 62% YoY)business-standard.combusiness-standard.com. The drop was driven by JLR volume declines and domestic automotive softness. “Despite stiff macro headwinds, the business delivered a profitable quarter,” said CFO P.B. Balaji, noting that tariff resolution and festive demand should help H2. He added the company is “aiming to accelerate performance and rebuild momentum across the portfolio”7 .
• Segment Highlights (Q1 FY26 vs Q1 FY25):
  • Jaguar Land Rover: Revenue –9.2% (to ₹67,320 cr); volumes -12%.
  • Tata CV (Trucks/Buses): Domestic volumes –9%, export volumes +68%; revenue –4.7% (to ₹17,009 cr)8 .
  • Tata PV (India Cars): Sales –10.1% (124,800 units) with EVs ~13% of volumes; revenue –8.2% (to ₹10,877 cr)9 .
• Balance Sheet & Policy: Tata Motors has been reducing debt; net debt is lower after recent rights issue and debt repayments. Its credit rating (Ba1) reflects steady parent supporteconomictimes.indiatimes.com. Dividend policy is modest – it paid a final ₹6/share in 2024-25moneycontrol.com (same total as FY23-24’s 3+3 special), implying a sub-1% yield. The company typically pays interim dividends if at all late in the fiscal year.
• Valuation: At ~₹660 (pre-split) and 11.5× earnings, Tata Motors was trading below some auto peers. Post-demerger, some brokerages plan separate valuations for the PV and CV businesses. For example, Nomura (in CNBC-TV18) pegged the standalone PV arm at ~₹367/share and the CV arm at ~₹365/sharemoneycontrol.com. (Goldman Sachs had pre-split valued consolidated Tata at ₹700/share.)

Expert Commentary

• Analyst Views: Opinions are mixed. YES Securities called the demerger a potential “good value unlocking opportunity”, maintaining a Buy rating (target ₹720) and noting that investors can now play autos’ two cycles separatelyeconomictimes.indiatimes.com. Bonanza Research’s Khushi Mistry highlights that the new CV arm will be “India’s largest commercial vehicle manufacturer (37.1% market share)” and expects the PV/EV business to grow “8–10% in H2FY26, aided by new launches, strong SUV positioning, and rising EV and CNG demand (45% of PV revenue)”economictimes.indiatimes.com. On the other hand, Jefferies remains cautious – reiterating an Underperform rating with a ₹575 target, pointing to lingering JLR risksts2.tech. Overall, about half the brokers rate it a buy (banking on India auto growth and the EV thesis), while others advise holding or selling until fundamentals improve10 .
• Executive Insights:
  • P.B. Balaji (CFO): “Despite stiff macro headwinds… the business delivered a profitable quarter,” he said, adding the company is “aiming to accelerate performance and rebuild momentum across the portfolio”business-standard.com. He also emphasized Tata’s EV strategy: “We will be a dominant player in [the EV] market,” aided by a domestic battery gigafactory and Tata Group support11 .
  • Adrian Mardell (JLR CEO): On Oct 7 he noted, “It has been a challenging quarter for JLR…against the backdrop of the planned wind down of legacy Jaguar models and the impact of incremental U.S. tariffs.” He added that from early Sept the company had been responding to a “cyber incident, which shut down our production”, working to resume output and fulfill orders12 .
  • N. Chandrasekaran (Tata Chairman): Speaking on EVs, he said, “Our goal is to go global eventually,” explaining that aggressive electrification and new technologies will power Tata Motors’ growthbusiness-reporter.com. The company has announced 10 new EV launches by Mar 2026 (with ~$2B capex, half from investor TPG) and a plan to scale annual EV output to ~80,000 units (vs 19,000 last year)13 .
• Technical Analysis: Traders note the stock is “under pressure” technically. It is trading below its key moving averages with an RSI ~44, suggesting neutral-to-bearish momentumeconomictimes.indiatimes.com. Religare’s Ajit Mishra warns that “sustained trade below Rs 670 may trigger further correction toward Rs 640–625”, whereas a decisive break above ~₹720 could unlock gains toward ₹750–770economictimes.indiatimes.com. Choice’s Hitesh Tailor sees a weekly ascending-triangle forming, which on a breakout above ₹715 might run to ~₹775economictimes.indiatimes.com. Bonanza’s Drumil Vithlani cautions investors to hold existing positions and “avoid fresh entry until clarity emerges” post-demerger14 .

“For Tata Motors, this split holds the potential for better performance by making the company more focused and stronger,” noted one brokerage, but it quickly added that JLR’s troubles – from the recent cyberattack to slowing demand in China, Europe, and the US – could temper the benefits15 .

Stock Outlook

Analysts’ 12–18 month targets range roughly ₹575–720. Bullish views (YES Securities, JM Financial, etc.) see value unlocking from the split and a rebound in volumes, whereas bears (Jefferies, etc.) point to continued JLR and macro headwinds. Long-term investors note Tata Motors’ strong balance sheet (Moody’s highlights parent support and reduced debteconomictimes.indiatimes.com) and India growth tailwinds, but near-term risks remain. The EV transition (and execution of its product pipeline) is a key catalyst. With the new CV and PV entities set to trade separately by Nov 2025, market dynamics will hinge on how quickly Jaguar Land Rover resumes normal production and how demand in India and abroad picks up.

In summary: Tata Motors’ shares reflect a storm of corporate actions: the 40% technical drop on demerger record date, the massive EV investment planreuters.com, and the JLR recovery from a cyber shockmedia.jaguarlandrover.com. Experts agree the split could sharpen focus and unlock valuets2.techts2.tech, but caution that JLR’s turnaround and global economic conditions will ultimately determine if the stock rebounds or stalls. Investors should watch the upcoming earnings (Q2 in Nov 2025), JLR’s production ramp-up, and how the separate CV/PV businesses perform going forward.

Sources: Company filings and resultsbusiness-standard.combusiness-standard.com, stock market dataeconomictimes.indiatimes.commoneycontrol.com, news reports (Reuters, ET, HT, India Today)hindustantimes.comreuters.commedia.jaguarlandrover.com, and industry analysts via credible publicationseconomictimes.indiatimes.comeconomictimes.indiatimes.comts2.tech. (Ts2.tech analysis and other media were also consultedts2.tech15 .)