- U.S. stocks rallied on Oct. 24 after consumer inflation cooled – September CPI came in at 3.0% year-on-year [1], below forecasts. The Nasdaq jumped ~0.9% and the S&P 500 ~0.6% on Oct. 23 [2], pushing benchmarks toward record highs (S&P ~6,750, Nasdaq ~23,000) [3].
- Investors now fully price in a 25 bp Fed rate cut at the Oct. 28–29 meeting [4], and most economists expect two cuts by year-end [5]. 10-year Treasury yields fell under 4% on the news [6] as bond prices rallied.
- Tech/AI stocks led the charge: Nvidia is up ~41% YTD and Palantir +143% [7], driving much of the market’s gain. Household names like Apple and Microsoft remain heavily bid in the rally [8].
- Wall Street forecasters have lifted targets: Goldman Sachs pegs the S&P 500 near ~6,800 by year-end and RBC around ~7,100 by 2026 [9]. Even so, some warn valuations are stretched.
U.S. equities roared higher as fresh data showed inflation easing, boosting hopes of cheaper borrowing costs. The Labor Department’s Sept. CPI report (released Oct. 24) showed prices up only 3.0% year-on-year (core CPI 3.0%) – just shy of expectations [10]. Traders seized on the news: stock futures jumped and all three major indexes closed higher on Oct. 23 (Nasdaq +0.9%, S&P 500 +0.6%, Dow +0.3%) [11]. “Equities are enjoying a broadly supportive environment,” said Peter Fitzgerald, macro CIO at Aviva Investors [12], reflecting optimism that Fed easing is coming. In practical terms, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are trading near record levels (roughly 6,750 and 23,000 respectively) [13], with year-to-date gains of ~15–18%.
Tech giants and semiconductor makers powered the move. Tesla (TSLA) rebounded on strong earnings, and chipmakers surged on AI demand. In fact, Nvidia (NVDA) is up ~41% so far this year and Palantir (PLTR) an astonishing 143% [14], as investors pile into stocks tied to artificial intelligence. Broadcom (AVGO) hit multi-year highs after unveiling a $10 billion AI-chip deal with OpenAI (co-designing 10 GW of chips) [15]. Major “Magnificent Seven” names like Apple and Microsoft also remain “broadly bid” in the rally [16]. Commodities moved: oil surged on new supply sanctions, and gold gave back a bit from its recent record, but the focus was on tech-led gains.
Amid the euphoria, cautious notes are creeping in. Analysts note the tech-fueled rally comes at very low volatility, and they are wary it may be frothy. Bank of England researchers recently warned U.S. tech/AI stock valuations look “excessively high” and vulnerable to a “sudden correction” [17]. Some Wall Street voices are even talking about bubble risks: as Reuters put it, there are “signs of a bubble” forming as traders pour money into AI stocks [18]. In short, everyone is bullish for now, but many admit the market may be overdue for a pullback once the stimulus of Fed cuts or AI news fades.
The Federal Reserve’s policy path is now front-and-center. Markets now fully price in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Oct. 28–29 Fed meeting [19] – in fact, futures imply nearly 100% odds of an October cut [20]. A Reuters poll of economists found virtually all (115 of 117) expect at least that cut, with many calling for a second one by year-end [21]. Yet Fed officials are split internally: as HSBC strategist Ryan Wang notes, “half of the FOMC is more focused on the labor market and the other half on inflation risks” [22]. And data gaps (due to the U.S. government shutdown) have analysts warning that policymakers are “just flying blind” without fresh labor or price data [23].
Still, strategists have put up high forecasts on the back of the strong rally. Goldman Sachs’ latest targets put the S&P 500 around ~6,800 by year-end, and RBC Capital projects about ~7,100 by 2026 [24] – both implying healthy upside from current levels. That said, bears caution the Fed’s next moves will be decisive. As Aviva’s Fitzgerald wryly observed, “It’s always impossible to predict when a bull market is going to end” [25]; some suggest any eventual correction might start among the stretched tech/AI names. Indeed, investors will be watching the CPI details (even amid the shutdown) and Fed speeches closely. In the meantime, the market is riding what one analyst calls an “AI-era Goldilocks” scenario – lower rates and strong tech growth – but everyone knows the paradigm can shift if inflation or growth deviates from expectations [26] [27].
Sources: Latest market data and analysis from Reuters, Investopedia, TS2.Tech and other financial news outlets [28] [29] [30].
References
1. ts2.tech, 2. ts2.tech, 3. ts2.tech, 4. ts2.tech, 5. ts2.tech, 6. ts2.tech, 7. ts2.tech, 8. ts2.tech, 9. ts2.tech, 10. ts2.tech, 11. ts2.tech, 12. ts2.tech, 13. ts2.tech, 14. ts2.tech, 15. ts2.tech, 16. ts2.tech, 17. ts2.tech, 18. ts2.tech, 19. ts2.tech, 20. ts2.tech, 21. ts2.tech, 22. ts2.tech, 23. ts2.tech, 24. ts2.tech, 25. ts2.tech, 26. ts2.tech, 27. ts2.tech, 28. ts2.tech, 29. ts2.tech, 30. ts2.tech
