Updated: Wednesday, November 5, 2025
Key takeaways
- Spot gold rose more than 1% intraday to ~$3,984/oz, recovering from Tuesday’s slide as investors rotated out of risk assets. December COMEX futures settled at ~$3,992.90. 1
- ADP reported +42,000 U.S. private jobs for October, a modest beat that nudged rate‑cut odds lower but didn’t derail haven bids. 2
- The Fed cut 25 bps last week to 3.75%–4.00%, and Chair Powell signaled a December cut is “not a foregone conclusion,” tempering bullion’s upside near the $4,000 mark. 3
- Year to date, gold remains up ~50% and below its Oct. 20 record high of ~$4,381, underscoring an uptrend despite late‑October volatility. 4
Live market snapshot (Nov 5, 2025)
Gold caught a risk‑off bid on Wednesday. By 2:30 p.m. ET, spot gold was up ~1.3% at $3,983.89/oz, while U.S. December futures settled up 0.8% at $3,992.90. Silver, platinum and palladium also firmed into the New York afternoon. 1
Earlier in the London session, spot was +0.8% around $3,963 as the U.S. dollar paused and equities softened on valuation worries—signs of the broader risk aversion that helped stabilize bullion after Tuesday’s slide. 4
On COMEX, morning activity showed lighter volumes but higher open interest, suggesting dip‑buyers and fresh positioning into the bounce: ~118,595 contracts traded by 10:00 a.m. ET and open interest rose to ~452,518 (+12,875) versus the prior session. 5
What moved gold today
1) Macro data:
The ADP National Employment Report showed +42,000 private‑sector jobs in October, above consensus and reversing September’s decline. With official data releases disrupted by the federal government shutdown, ADP took on outsized relevance this week. The print trimmed near‑term Fed cut odds but did not prevent safe‑haven flows amid a broader equity wobble. 2
2) The Fed backdrop:
The Fed’s 25 bp cut on Oct. 29 supported non‑yielding assets like gold, but Chair Powell’s message that a December cut is “not a slam dunk” capped enthusiasm near the $4,000 handle. Markets continue to reassess the path of policy amid limited official data. 3
3) Cross‑asset tone and FX:
A pullback in global equities boosted the haven bid, while the dollar index hovered near multi‑month highs earlier this week before easing slightly intraday—an arc that helped bullion recover without a decisive breakout. Safe‑haven FX (yen, Swiss franc) outperformed on the day, consistent with the risk‑off mood. 6
Context: from record highs to a healthy correction
Gold is ~10% below its Oct. 20 record (~$4,381/oz) after a late‑October shakeout that saw the largest one‑day drop since 2020. That sell‑off was widely characterized as profit‑taking after a parabolic run; Wednesday’s bounce supports the view that the primary uptrend remains intact. 4
Positioning and flows: ETFs & central banks still matter
- Global gold‑backed ETFs saw robust October inflows, with SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) taking in ~$3.6B as prices spiked above $4,300 before consolidating below $4,000. Such flows reflect renewed portfolio demand even as volatility rose. 7
- World Gold Council’s Q3 2025 report showed ETF inflows of ~222 tonnes and central‑bank net purchases of ~220 tonnes—a powerful fundamental backbone for prices this year, even as jewelry demand softens at high prices. 8
Technical picture (spot gold)
- Immediate resistance:$4,000, then $4,050–$4,100 (psychological & recent supply zone).
- First support:$3,950, then $3,900 (round‑number shelf watched by short‑term traders).
Intraday commentary from professional desks earlier in the day pointed to bargain‑hunting near $3,950 and fade‑the‑rally interest around $4,000–4,020. 4
Other precious metals
Silver traded near $48.13/oz, platinum ~ $1,561.65/oz, and palladium ~ $1,424.22/oz into the New York afternoon, all modestly higher alongside gold. 1
India price check (retail snapshot)
City‑level quotes in India reflected the international bounce with variation across markets. As of Nov 5, 2025, indicative retail rates included Delhi ~₹11,797/g (24K) / ₹11,235/g (22K) and Mumbai ~₹11,744/g (24K) / ₹11,185/g (22K) (8‑gram and 10‑gram equivalents listed by the same source). Always confirm with your local jeweler for making charges and purity. 9
What to watch next
- U.S. data cadence: With official releases constrained by the government shutdown, investors will lean more on private reports (ADP, PMI surveys) for near‑term macro signals—heightening day‑to‑day volatility in gold. 10
- Fed speak & December odds: Markets will parse speeches for hints on whether the October cut was the last of 2025. A firmer dollar or stickier yields could slow gold’s march; the opposite would add tailwinds. 3
- Flows: Keep an eye on ETF creations/redemptions and central‑bank activity—the two pillars that underpinned 2025’s historic advance. 8
Frequently asked
Why did gold rise today?
A combination of risk‑off equities, a slight intraday pause in the dollar, and buy‑the‑dip interest helped gold rebound—even as the ADP beat trimmed near‑term easing expectations. 4
What’s the main ceiling now?
$4,000 remains a well‑traveled psychological level. A clean daily close above could invite momentum buying toward $4,050–$4,100; failure keeps $3,900–$3,950 in play as support. 4
Is the 2025 uptrend broken?
Not by today’s evidence. Despite October’s sharp correction, YTD performance is still ~50% and fundamental demand (ETF + central bank) is strong, which supports a still‑constructive medium‑term backdrop. 4
Citations of today’s top reports
- Gold gains on risk aversion despite strong US payrolls data (Reuters). 1
- Gold rises more than 1% on risk‑off mood, dollar pause (Reuters via Kitco). 4
- ADP: Private sector employment +42,000 in October (ADP release; Reuters wrap). 11
- Fed cut & Powell’s “not a foregone conclusion” message (Reuters). 3
- COMEX activity—volume & OI snapshot (AP/BC‑Gold Futures). 5
- ETF flows & GLD inflow (ETF.com). 7
- WGC Q3 2025 demand: ETF +221.7t; central banks +220t (World Gold Council). 8
- India retail city rates (Nov 5) (Moneycontrol). 9
Note: Market prices change frequently. Figures above reference timestamps and sources cited and may differ from your broker/venue.
