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NVDA Stock Before the Bell (Nov 10, 2025): China Curbs, TSMC Supply, New AI Cloud Deals, and Earnings Countdown

by
9 November 2025

NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) opens the new week after a volatile stretch for AI-linked shares, with fresh U.S.–China restrictions in focus, CEO commentary on supply and demand, and a firm earnings date just ahead. Here are the key things to know before the U.S. market opens on Monday, 10 November 2025.

Last close and recent tape action
• NVDA finished Friday, Nov 7, at $188.15 after a choppy week for mega-cap tech and semis. Sector-wide risk-off into the weekend left AI bellwethers collectively softer. [1]

  1. Policy risk: No Blackwell sales to China—and scaled‑down chips reportedly next
    • The White House said on Nov 4 that Nvidia’s most advanced Blackwell chips cannot be sold to China, reinforcing the administration’s national-security stance. [2]
    • On Nov 7, Reuters reported the U.S. is also moving to block sales of scaled‑back AI chips to China (previously a workaround for H100/H200 curbs), heightening near‑term demand uncertainty from that market. [3]
    • CEO Jensen Huang added on Nov 7 that there are “no active discussions” to sell Blackwell into China and that the company is “not planning to ship anything to China,” removing near‑term upside from that channel. [4]
  2. Demand and supply: “Very strong” Blackwell demand; more TSMC wafers
    • Over the weekend in Taiwan, Huang said demand for Nvidia’s Blackwell platform remains “very strong” and that he’s asked TSMC for more wafers—an important tell on 2026 capacity planning and shipment cadence. [5]
    • The comments dovetail with recent volatility: investors have wrestled with how China restrictions and any rack‑level bottlenecks balance against continued hyperscaler and enterprise AI build‑outs. [6]
  3. Customer pipeline and partnerships: European “industrial AI cloud” and hyperscaler capacity grabs
    • Deutsche Telekom and Nvidia announced a €1B “Industrial AI Cloud” in Munich slated to go live in Q1 2026—evidence of sovereign/enterprise AI demand beyond U.S. hyperscalers. [7]
    • Microsoft signed a $9.7B agreement with data‑center operator IREN to secure future Nvidia AI capacity (GB300‑class), underscoring how buyers are locking in supply amid tight markets. [8]
    • CoreWeave and VAST Data expanded a $1.17B infrastructure deal—part of the broader ecosystem investment wave that ultimately pulls through accelerators, networking and AI storage. [9]
  4. Earnings watch: Q3 FY26 next week—what the street will probe
    • Nvidia’s next report is confirmed for Wednesday, Nov 19 (after market), with the company set to discuss the October quarter (fiscal Q3 FY26) and provide color on the Blackwell ramp, supply chain, and China impacts. [10]
    • In August, Nvidia guided Q3 revenue to about $54B (±2%). While growth remains extraordinary, investors will be laser‑focused on how guidance and backlog evolve against export rules and alternative chip ecosystems. [11]
  5. Macro and positioning: AI wobble vs. multi‑trillion backdrop
    • After touching a record ~$5T market value in late October, Nvidia and AI peers saw profit‑taking last week as sentiment cooled. The AI trade remains a major market driver, but leadership has become more selective. [12]
    • Valuation context: recent analysis pegs NVDA around the low‑30s on forward P/E, a reminder that multiples have eased as earnings swelled—yet they remain sensitive to any growth‑rate deceleration. [13]

What could move NVDA at today’s open (Nov 10, 2025)
• Any overnight headlines on U.S.–China chip policy or additional commentary from Nvidia management during Huang’s Asia trip. [14]
• Fresh read‑throughs from hyperscaler capex and third‑party cloud capacity announcements (Microsoft/IREN and CoreWeave/VAST Data). [15]
• Tape‑wide risk tone: last week’s AI/tech pullback means the opening bid may be guided by macro flows as much as stock‑specific catalysts. [16]

Key dates and details
• Monday, Nov 10: U.S. equity markets open as normal (Veterans Day on Tuesday does not close equities; U.S. bonds will be shut). [17]
• Wednesday, Nov 19 (after market): NVDA Q3 FY26 results and webcast (2:00 p.m. PT). Watch for update on Blackwell shipments, HBM memory supply, China exposure, and data‑center networking mix. [18]

Bottom line
Heading into the Nov 10 open, NVDA’s near‑term setup is a tug‑of‑war: policy headlines and China restrictions versus strong Blackwell demand, ongoing capacity adds through TSMC, and new AI infrastructure deals in the U.S. and Europe. With earnings nine days away, expect the stock to trade on incremental supply signals and macro risk appetite while investors position for guidance quality and any updates on China‑related revenue pathways. [19]

Disclosure: This article is for information only and is not investment advice. Always do your own research.

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References

1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. investor.nvidia.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.nyse.com, 18. investor.nvidia.com, 19. www.reuters.com

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Marcin Frąckiewicz Latest posts

CEO of TS2 Space and founder of TS2.tech. Expert in satellites, telecommunications, and emerging technologies, covering trends in space, AI, and connectivity.

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