Published November 17, 2025
Summary: Gold prices eased on Monday as a stronger U.S. dollar and fading odds of a near‑term Federal Reserve rate cut dented demand for the non‑yielding metal. By mid‑afternoon in New York, spot bullion traded near $4,019 per ounce and December COMEX futures settled around $4,074.50. Markets are now focused on this week’s Fed minutes and the rescheduled U.S. jobs report after the government reopened. 1
Where the gold price stands right now
- Spot gold (XAU/USD): Around $4,019/oz at 3:13 p.m. ET (20:13 GMT), after swinging between $4,007 and $4,107 earlier in the session. 1
- COMEX gold futures (Dec):Settled at $4,074.50/oz on Monday. 1
- Intraday context: During early U.S. trade, gold briefly reclaimed the $4,100 handle before slipping back as the dollar firmed. 2
- 52‑week range (XAU/USD):$2,561–$4,382. 3
Note: Quotes are real‑time or near real‑time and can change quickly during the session. Always check a live feed before making decisions. 3
What moved gold today
1) A firmer U.S. dollar
The dollar index edged higher, mechanically pressuring dollar‑priced gold. A stronger greenback makes bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies and typically weighs on spot prices. 1
2) Rate‑cut bets scaled back
Traders dialed down the probability of a December Fed rate cut to roughly the low‑40% area, sapping enthusiasm for non‑yielding assets like gold. Lower rates are generally supportive for bullion; fading odds had the opposite effect today. 1
3) Data and policy catalysts ahead
With Washington reopened, markets expect a “data deluge” this week. Investors are watching Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and a rescheduled September nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday for fresh policy cues. 1
Big‑picture flows: central banks still buying
A fresh note from Goldman Sachs flagged that central banks likely continued heavy gold purchases into November, a multi‑year trend tied to reserve diversification. The bank estimates 64 tonnes of buying in September (vs. 21 tonnes in August) and reiterated its $4,900/oz year‑end 2026 price target. It also highlighted that spot prices are up roughly 55% year‑to‑date, underpinned by geopolitical risk, ETF inflows and expectations of easier policy. 4
Market snapshot for investors
- Day’s trading range:$4,007–$4,107 (XAU/USD). Watching whether buyers can defend $4,000 remains key for sentiment. 3
- ETF proxy (GLD): The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the largest bullion‑backed ETF, closed around $371.65 on Monday, tracking the pullback in spot prices. (ETF prices include fund costs and may not perfectly match spot.) 5
Today’s analyst take and technical context
Short‑term, gold is struggling to build traction above $4,100, with intraday support repeatedly emerging near $4,040–$4,060. Momentum indicators have flattened as traders await this week’s macro catalysts, leaving the metal range‑bound beneath initial resistance. A clear daily close back above $4,100–$4,130 would reassert bullish control; failure to hold $4,000 would risk deeper mean‑reversion after the autumn surge. 6
What to watch next (this week)
- FOMC minutes (Wednesday): Markets will parse the tone for clues on the path of rate cuts after the Fed’s most recent 25 bps move. A more hawkish‑than‑expected read could keep gold capped; a dovish slant would likely support bids above $4,100. 1
- Rescheduled U.S. jobs report (Thursday): With data delayed by the shutdown, the labor print may carry extra weight. Softer jobs would bolster rate‑cut hopes—and gold—while a firm report could strengthen the dollar and pressure bullion. 1
- Central‑bank flow chatter: Any confirmation of ongoing official‑sector buying will be watched for validation of Goldman’s constructive 2026 target. 4
Bottom line for November 17, 2025
Gold eased back toward $4,020 as the dollar firmed and December rate‑cut odds ebbed, keeping the metal capped beneath $4,100. The near‑term trajectory hinges on Fed minutes and delayed U.S. data later this week, while central‑bank demand continues to provide a strong structural backstop over the medium term. 1
Sources used today: Intraday pricing and settlement levels; macro drivers and calendar; and central‑bank‑buying commentary are drawn from Reuters, with real‑time ranges and reference levels cross‑checked against Investing.com and early‑session context from MINING.com. ETF closing data referenced Financial Times. 1
