Tesla stock ended Monday’s session essentially flat, but the news flow around the name was anything but quiet. After the bell on December 1, 2025 (10 p.m. EST), investors are digesting:
- A fresh bearish broadside from “Big Short” investor Michael Burry
- Sharp November sales declines in key European markets
- Tesla’s biggest-ever Full Self‑Driving (FSD) free trial push
- Mixed but generally cautious Wall Street forecasts
Here’s a complete, news-driven rundown of where TSLA stands tonight and what could matter for the next trading day.
Tesla stock today: flat close around $430 after choppy trade
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed Monday at about $430 per share, with most major data providers showing an official close just above $430 and a tiny move higher in early after‑hours trading. [1]
- Close: ≈ $430.1–$430.2
- Early after-hours quote (around 4 p.m. EST): ≈ $430.3, up about 0.03% from the close [2]
- Intraday range: roughly $425 to $434 [3]
- Volume: about 55 million shares, above many large-cap averages [4]
- 52‑week range:$214.25 – $488.54 [5]
On a year‑to‑date basis, TSLA is up roughly high single– to low double‑digit percentages, depending on the provider, but still sits more than 10% below its late‑2024 all‑time high above $480. [6]
From a technical angle, Investing.com’s toolkit flags Tesla as a “Strong Buy” on the daily timeframe, with:
- RSI (14‑day): ~61 (bullish but not overbought)
- 11 of 12 key moving averages flashing buy signals as of late afternoon in New York [7]
In other words: price action today was calm, but the setup under the surface is still that of a momentum stock trading on a very rich valuation.
Burry is back: “Big Short” legend revives bearish Tesla attack
The headline macro story for Tesla today is the return of Michael Burry to the bear camp.
In a new post on his Substack “Cassandra Unchained,” Burry calls Tesla “ridiculously overvalued” and focuses heavily on long‑term dilution and Elon Musk’s record compensation package. [8]
Key points from Burry’s critique, as summarized by Reuters and Business Insider:
- He estimates Tesla is diluting shareholders by about 3.6% per year, with no share buybacks to offset that. [9]
- He argues Musk’s $1 trillion pay package is likely to keep that dilution going over the next decade. [10]
- Burry notes Tesla trades at roughly 200–250x forward earnings, versus about 22x for the S&P 500, and well above Tesla’s own five‑year average multiple in the 90s. [11]
Burry also takes aim at what he calls the “Elon cult” — arguing that enthusiasm has rotated from electric cars, to autonomous driving, and now to robots, with competition catching up at each step. [12]
This isn’t his first shot at Tesla: Burry famously disclosed a large bearish options position against TSLA in 2021 before exiting later that year. [13]
Market impact:
- Today’s price reaction was muted; TSLA finished essentially flat. [14]
- But Burry’s note comes on top of already elevated valuation concerns, reinforcing a narrative that Tesla’s market cap has sprinted well ahead of current earnings power.
For longer‑term investors, the Burry story is less about a single short seller and more about a reminder that valuation and dilution are now front‑and‑center parts of the Tesla debate.
Europe sends a warning: November registrations crater in key markets
If Burry is the sentiment story, Europe is the fundamental one.
A detailed Reuters analysis today shows that Tesla’s November registrations – a proxy for sales – collapsed in several major European markets compared with a year ago: [15]
- France: registrations down 58% (to 1,593 units)
- Sweden: down 59%
- Denmark: down 49%
- Netherlands: down 44%
- Portugal: down 47%
- Spain: down 9% to 1,523 vehicles [16]
Across the region, Tesla’s European market share has slipped to about 1.6% year‑to‑date, from 2.4% a year earlier, according to the report. [17]
The article – echoed and expanded on by an in‑depth TipRanks piece – links the slump to several overlapping factors: [18]
- Brand fatigue: polling cited by Reuters suggests roughly 38% of surveyed consumers in Europe’s five biggest car markets feel the Tesla brand’s novelty has faded. [19]
- Rising competition, especially from Chinese EV makers and refreshed European rivals. [20]
- A shift toward hybrids: associations such as France’s PFA note more consumers choosing hybrids over fully electric vehicles. [21]
- Political backlash: both Reuters and TipRanks trace part of the downturn to backlash after Elon Musk’s high‑profile support for far‑right political figures in late 2024, which triggered protests and negative press across Europe. [22]
Spain got its own separate Reuters story today:
- New Tesla sales there fell 8.75% year‑on‑year in November, to the same 1,523 vehicles noted above.
- Yet year‑to‑date Tesla sales in Spain are still up 5.56%, even as electrified vehicles overall (EVs plus hybrids) have doubled, underscoring how fiercely rivals are growing into the segment. [23]
Why this matters:
- Europe is one of Tesla’s most competitive and politically sensitive markets.
- The data reinforces the idea that Tesla is no longer the only EV game in town, especially as Chinese brands expand and legacy automakers roll out aggressive electric lineups.
- Combined with Burry’s valuation concerns, the EU numbers highlight a risk that growth slows while the stock still trades like a hyper‑growth name.
Tesla’s holiday FSD trial: a 1.5 million‑car software gamble
On the more bullish side of the ledger, Tesla is making its strongest move yet to turn its autonomous driving tech into a serious subscription business.
According to EV‑focused outlet EVXL, Tesla has launched a free 40‑day trial of Full Self‑Driving (Supervised) v14 for about 1.5 million HW4‑equipped vehicles across North America. The trial began on November 29, 2025 and runs through January 8, 2026, spanning the entire holiday travel season. [24]
Highlights from the report: [25]
- Eligible vehicles: Newer Model S, 3, X, Y and Cybertruck with HW4/AI4 hardware
- Regions: U.S., Canada, Mexico and Puerto Rico
- Trial terms: once activated, the 40‑day clock can’t be paused
- Post‑trial pricing: $99/month subscription or $8,000 one‑time purchase
EVXL notes that Tesla disclosed during its Q3 earnings call that only about 12% of its fleet currently pays for FSD, far short of Musk’s long‑term ambitions and the targets tied to his compensation package. [26]
The article also runs the math: at a 10% conversion rate on 1.5 million trial users, Tesla would add roughly 150,000 new FSD subscribers, worth close to $15 million in incremental monthly revenue at the current price – before any one‑time purchases. [27]
However, this push comes under a cloud of regulatory scrutiny:
- The U.S. NHTSA is investigating about 2.88 million Tesla vehicles equipped with FSD after 58 reports of traffic violations and 14 crashes that caused 23 injuries, according to the same report. [28]
- EVXL argues that Tesla is essentially running a high‑stakes “first hit free” campaign at massive scale, even as regulators probe the safety of the system. [29]
Investor takeaway:
- If the trial converts well and avoids major headline accidents, it supports the bullish “software margin” story that underpins many long‑term Tesla valuation models.
- If it goes badly – poor user experience or more high‑profile incidents – it could reinforce regulatory and reputational risks at a moment when Tesla is leaning harder than ever on the FSD narrative.
Cybertruck and Asia: growth pockets emerge as Europe wobbles
While Europe is flashing warning lights, Tesla is pushing deeper into Asia with both vehicles and software.
Several outlets, including Tesla North and Australia’s The Driven, reported that the first international Cybertruck deliveries have begun in South Korea, with about 30 customers taking delivery at a major launch event on November 27, 2025. [30]
Regional coverage from Korea Bizwire (headline only, due to technical access limits) indicates Tesla is also:
- Importing cheaper China‑built Model Y and Model 3 variants into Korea,
- Pairing them with an advanced FSD rollout in the market,
- Effectively tightening its grip on the country’s premium EV segment. [31]
Taken together with the FSD trial in North America, the Cybertruck’s overseas debut and cheaper Asia‑focused configurations suggest:
- Tesla is leaning hard into international expansion and product mix to offset softer pockets like Europe.
- Korea, with its tech‑savvy, design‑conscious consumer base and growing Supercharger footprint, could become an important test market for premium EV and autonomy adoption. [32]
Product experience and feedback: Tesla ECHO and the holiday update
On the micro‑product side, Tesla also continues to tweak the ownership experience – a small but relevant part of the long‑term brand and retention story.
Not a Tesla App today highlighted Tesla ECHO, a new customer feedback portal that lives behind the owners’ account login. [33]
Key details: [34]
- Owners can submit structured feedback with their account identity attached, allowing Tesla to pull telemetry and vehicle data tied to a specific concern.
- The system issues a trackable ticket number and is expected to be integrated directly into the Tesla mobile app.
- It’s designed to consolidate what used to be scattered across service tickets, emails and social posts into a single, engineer‑friendly pipeline.
The same outlet also previewed owners’ “wish list” items for Tesla’s upcoming 2025 holiday software update, especially around:
- Supercharger virtual queuing
- Manual battery pre‑conditioning
- Expanded vehicle‑to‑home and vehicle‑to‑load power features
- FSD improvements like cross‑fleet hazard sharing and better tow‑mode behavior [35]
For investors, these smaller updates matter because they address some of the fit‑and‑finish and service criticisms that have dogged Tesla in consumer surveys – issues that Europe’s registration slump suggests may now be affecting demand. [36]
Fundamentals check: earnings, margins and growth
Underneath today’s headlines is a company that is still growing, but at a slower pace and with a much thinner margin profile than at its peak.
From Tesla’s Q3 2025 results, summarized by 24/7 Wall St. and MarketBeat: [37]
- Revenue: $28.1 billion, up about 11–12% year‑over‑year
- EPS: $0.50 vs Wall Street consensus of $0.48 (a small beat)
- Net income: down roughly 37% year‑over‑year to $1.37 billion
- Net margin: around 5.5%
The combination of slowing revenue growth, compressed margins, and still‑heavy capital spending on AI, FSD, Optimus and new models is exactly why valuation is such a battleground.
What Wall Street says tonight: consensus “Hold,” modest downside
Across major data aggregators, analysts are broadly cautious on Tesla at current levels:
- MarketBeat forecast page: 44 analysts show an average 12‑month price target of about $394, implying ~8% downside from around $429, with targets ranging from $19 to $600 per share. [38]
- A separate MarketBeat institutional report notes an average rating of “Hold” with 1 Strong Buy, 21 Buy, 12 Hold and 10 Sell ratings. [39]
- TipRanks also assigns TSLA a Hold consensus, based on 13 Buys, 11 Holds and 10 Sells, with an average target of $388.04, nearly 11% below the current price. [40]
- Public.com shows a Hold consensus from 26 analysts as of December 1, 2025. [41]
- StockAnalysis.com, which tracks a partially overlapping analyst set, labels the consensus rating a “Buy”, but still shows an average target around $384, implying roughly 10% downside from current levels. [42]
Another 24/7 Wall St. piece last week pegs its own 12‑month target at ~$353, a steeper mid‑teens downside from today’s price. [43]
In short:
Wall Street doesn’t hate Tesla – but at roughly $430, the average analyst expects more downside than upside over the next year, even while many highlight long‑term optionality in FSD, robotaxis and robotics.
Inside today’s bull, base and bear scenarios
24/7 Wall St.’s new “Bull, Base and Bear Price Prediction and Forecast” for Tesla, published today, offers a good snapshot of how the Street is thinking. [44]
From that piece:
- Bull case:
- Cybertruck and robotaxi/FSD take off faster than expected.
- The Optimus robot evolves into a meaningful new business line.
- Under this scenario, Tesla’s current price could look cheap in hindsight, especially if robotaxis prove to be a high‑margin recurring revenue machine. [45]
- Bear case:
- EV competition intensifies (including from a Jeff Bezos–backed “anti‑Tesla” truck startup).
- FSD and Optimus under‑deliver or face regulatory choke points.
- Insider selling and shrinking institutional ownership raise concerns about long‑term conviction. [46]
- Base case:
- The article notes a median Street price target around the high‑$300s with a wide range from $19 to $600, and suggests roughly $300 per share as a “fair value” midpoint given the company’s current growth and execution risks. [47]
It’s worth stressing that these are scenario narratives, not certainties. What they do show is how binary the Tesla story still looks: huge optionality on the upside tied to autonomy and AI, but equally large execution and valuation risk on the downside.
Technical backdrop after the bell: bullish trend, stretched valuation
Short‑term traders will care about TSLA’s technical profile going into Tuesday’s session:
- Trend: Daily technical models on Investing.com show a “Strong Buy” reading from both indicators and moving averages. [48]
- Momentum: The 14‑day RSI around 61 suggests bullish momentum but not classic overbought territory (typically 70+). [49]
- Support/resistance: Pivot‑point data puts key levels in the mid‑$420s as support and high‑$420s to low‑$430s as resistance, consistent with recent trading in a relatively tight band. [50]
At the same time, MarketBeat’s institutional reports show a P/E near 287 and a PEG ratio above 16, numbers that underline how much optimism is already baked into the price. [51]
Key risks and opportunities to watch after today
Based on today’s news flow, several themes stand out for TSLA investors:
1. Demand vs. competition
- Risk: The European registration crash and Spain sales data suggest that when competition intensifies and incentives normalize, Tesla can lose share quickly. [52]
- Opportunity: Norway and Italy still show strong growth, proving Tesla can win in regions where infrastructure, policy and brand perception line up in its favor. [53]
2. FSD monetization vs. regulatory drag
- Opportunity: A successful 1.5 million‑car FSD trial could unlock meaningful recurring revenue and strengthen the case for Tesla as a software/AI platform, not “just” a carmaker. [54]
- Risk: Ongoing NHTSA investigations and any high‑profile incidents during the trial window could harden regulators’ stance and undermine the premium investors are paying for autonomy optionality. [55]
3. Valuation, dilution and insider behavior
- Burry’s critique focuses squarely on dilution and extreme multiples. [56]
- MarketBeat’s institutional data confirms significant insider selling over the last 90 days and a still‑hefty 19.9% insider ownership base. [57]
- At nearly 300x trailing earnings, Tesla’s multiple allows very little room for execution missteps. [58]
4. Institutional positioning
- New filings show large institutions like OMERS, Norges Bank, Goldman Sachs and Vanguard increasing or initiating substantial positions, while others trim. [59]
- Overall, institutions own about two‑thirds of the float, a sign that professional investors are still deeply engaged – even if their average rating is only “Hold.” [60]
Bottom line: what today’s Tesla news means for TSLA
After the bell on December 1, 2025, Tesla stock looks calm on the surface but turbulent underneath:
- Price: roughly flat around $430, with only a tiny uptick in thin after‑hours trading. [61]
- Narrative:
Most Wall Street forecasts now cluster around single‑digit downside over the next 12 months, not because Tesla is broken, but because so much of the robotaxi/AI/Optimus future is already priced in. [64]
For traders, Tuesday’s open will likely hinge on how seriously the market takes Burry’s renewed short and the European data. For longer‑term investors, the big questions remain the same:
- Can Tesla turn FSD, robotaxis and robotics into large, profitable software businesses fast enough to justify today’s multiples?
- Or will slowing EV growth, political controversy and rising competition force the stock’s valuation back toward more traditional auto or tech levels?
As always, none of this is investment advice. But as of 10 p.m. EST on December 1, 2025, those are the forces tugging at Tesla stock after the bell.
References
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