Taylor Wimpey Share Price Today: RBC Upgrade, 9% Dividend Yield and 2026 Outlook (2 December 2025)

Taylor Wimpey plc (LON: TW.) is back on traders’ radar after a high‑profile broker upgrade, a double‑digit prospective total return profile and fresh data pointing to a slowly healing UK housing market – despite softer sales and heavy legacy fire‑safety costs weighing on 2025 earnings.

Taylor Wimpey share price today – bouncing on an RBC upgrade

In London trading on 2 December 2025, Taylor Wimpey shares climbed to around 104p, up nearly 3% on the day, after RBC Capital Markets upgraded the stock from “sector perform” to “outperform” and lifted its price target to 150p from 130p. ^[1]

Even after today’s move, the Taylor Wimpey share price still trades roughly 20–25% below its 52‑week high of about 130–131p, and modestly above its recent lows around 92–93p, according to London Stock Exchange and market data providers. ^[2]

On current numbers, the stock screens as asset‑backed and high‑yielding:

Price‑to‑book ratio is about 0.85–0.9x, meaning the market values the company at a discount to its tangible equity. ^[3]
Forward P/E (based on 2025 earnings estimates) sits around 12x, versus a headline trailing P/E above 40x distorted by one‑off charges in 2025. ^[4]
Various data providers put the dividend yield in the 9–9.5% range at today’s share price, reflecting hefty cash returns to shareholders. ^[5]

That combination of RBC’s fresh “outperform” call, a double‑digit implied total return, and a visible land‑backed balance sheet is exactly what’s pulling Taylor Wimpey back into the spotlight.

What RBC is saying – and why it matters today

RBC’s sector note, published this morning, effectively reshuffled the UK housebuilding league table. The bank argues that “self‑help” and strategic land, not just a cyclical recovery, will determine the winners into 2026–2028. ^[6]

For Taylor Wimpey, RBC highlights several key points: ^[7]

The stock is upgraded to “outperform” with a new 150p price target, implying roughly 40–45% upside from around 104p.
100% of sites needed through 2026 already have planning permission, over 90% for 2027 and about 65% for 2028, giving the group unusually good visibility on its build pipeline.
The controlled landbank of around 75,651 plots equates to roughly 6.6 years of forward supply at current volumes.
RBC models volume growth of 4.7% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026, with margins dipping this year before recovering through 2027.

RBC’s thesis is that chronic UK planning bottlenecks – approvals for large sites are at their lowest in two decades – tilt the advantage toward builders that already hold consented, economical land and can drive internal efficiencies. ^[8]

Today’s rally in Taylor Wimpey and peer Persimmon was explicitly linked to RBC’s upgrade in London market reports and morning briefings. ^[9]

Analyst consensus: upside, but with “Hold” level conviction

The broader analyst community is positive on valuation but cautious about the cycle:

MarketBeat collates eight analyst 12‑month targets for Taylor Wimpey with an average of 130.4p, a high of 150p and a low of 109p. That implies roughly 25–30% upside from current levels, yet the consensus rating is only “Hold”. ^[10]
TipRanks shows six Wall Street analysts with an average target around 125p and a consensus “Hold” stance, underscoring the same “cheap but cyclical” story. ^[11]
StocksGuide, which aggregates estimates from around 20 analysts, points to 2025 EPS of about 8p and steady double‑digit percentage growth in earnings and net margin through 2027–2028 if volumes normalise. ^[12]

Valuation‑focused platforms such as Simply Wall St estimate a DCF fair value in the high‑120s per share; their latest note trimmed fair value from 132p to 129p, still markedly above the live share price, and emphasised that Taylor Wimpey trades at a discount to both its discounted cash flows and book value. ^[13]

The picture from analysts is remarkably consistent:

The stock looks cheap on assets and cash flows, but the market remains wary of housing‑cycle risk, policy risk and legacy fire‑safety costs.

Recent numbers: top‑line growth, bottom‑line hit by cladding

Half‑year 2025 – revenue up, one‑off costs drag profit

Taylor Wimpey’s half‑year results to 29 June 2025 were a textbook case of solid operations overshadowed by exceptional charges: ^[14]

Revenue rose 9% year‑on‑year to £1.65bn (H1 2024: £1.52bn).
Home completions increased 11% to 5,264 units.
Operating profit (before exceptionals) fell around 12% to £161m, with the operating margin slipping to 9.7% as affordability pressures and a softer market squeezed pricing and mix.
After a £222m fire‑safety and cladding provision and related items, the group swung to a pre‑tax loss of about £92m and a net loss of roughly £62m, versus a profit a year ago.

A separate July update from the company and Reuters confirmed that this also included a £20m one‑off charge to remediate a London development after the collapse of the original contractor. Management cut 2025 operating‑profit guidance from £444m to £424m, but kept volume guidance unchanged at 10,400–10,800 UK completions. ^[15]

On the positive side, pension reporting shows a healthier position: the main defined‑benefit scheme moved to an IAS 19 surplus of more than £130m by mid‑2025, helped by prior de‑risking. ^[16]

November trading statement – autumn slowdown, guidance intact

The 12 November 2025 trading statement painted a picture of a market that is difficult, but not collapsing: ^[17]

From 30 June to 9 November, the net private sales rate slipped to 0.63 homes per outlet per week (2024: 0.71); excluding bulk deals it was 0.61 (2024: 0.68).
Cancellations remained at 17%, broadly flat year‑on‑year.
Year‑to‑date, the sales rate was 0.72, only fractionally below 2024’s 0.73.
The order book stood at 7,253 homes worth roughly £2.12bn, down from 7,771 homes (£2.21bn) a year earlier.
Underlying selling prices are broadly flat, while build‑cost inflation remains in the low single digits.
The group operated from an average of around 210 outlets, opening more sites than in the prior year and keeping the short‑term landbank near 75k plots with a strategic pipeline of about 135k potential plots.

Despite the softer autumn selling season – which several newspapers linked to uncertainty ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ late‑November Budget and affordability pressure on first‑time buyers – management reiterated guidance for 2025 completions and the £424m operating‑profit target. ^[18]

The share price dropped roughly 4% on the day of that update, as investors focused on near‑term sales weakness rather than the reiterated outlook. ^[19]

Dividend: a near‑double‑digit yield backed by a generous policy

Taylor Wimpey has long pitched itself as an income stock and has maintained a policy of returning around 7.5% of net assets annually via ordinary dividends. ^[20]

Key points on the Taylor Wimpey dividend today:

For 2024, the company paid a total ordinary dividend of 9.46p per share (4.80p interim + 4.66p final), equivalent to roughly £335m. ^[21]
In line with that policy, the 2025 interim dividend of 4.67p per share was declared alongside the half‑year results and paid on 14 November 2025 to shareholders on the register as of 10 October. ^[22]
At today’s share price, trailing‑twelve‑month distributions equate to a cash dividend yield around 9–9.5%, depending on the data source and FX assumptions for ADRs. ^[23]

That yield is eye‑catching – but it is also why commentators at outlets such as The Motley Fool and Simply Wall St repeatedly ask whether the dividend is “too good to be true” given elevated payout ratios on depressed 2025 earnings and the need to keep funding remediation and land investment. ^[24]

For now, management is signalling commitment to the policy, but the sustainability of a near‑10% yield ultimately depends on how quickly margins recover toward pre‑downturn levels.

Macro backdrop: housing data and the Reeves Budget

Today’s upgrade lands against a macro backdrop that is tentatively improving for UK housing:

Nationwide data published this morning showed UK house prices rose 0.3% month‑on‑month in November, beating expectations, with rising wages modestly improving affordability even as annual house‑price growth cooled to 1.8%. Economists expect house‑price inflation to accelerate in 2026 as Budget uncertainty fades. ^[25]
Market pricing and economists’ forecasts suggest the Bank of England is likely to trim Bank Rate to around 3.75% from 4.0%, with further small cuts in 2026, easing mortgage costs gradually rather than dramatically. ^[26]

However, the Reeves Budget also introduced property‑tax changes that matter for housebuilders’ mix:

From April 2028, a new council‑tax “mansion” surcharge will apply to homes above £2m, while tax on rental property income will rise 2 percentage points from April 2027. ^[27]
RBC notes that this could trim long‑run annual house‑price inflation by around 0.1 percentage points from 2028, with bigger effects on high‑end London‑focused players such as Berkeley than on more mass‑market builders like Taylor Wimpey. ^[28]

Overall, the “vital statistics” of the housing market – mortgage approvals, employment and wages – are better than feared, but planning friction, regulatory costs and policy tweaks are keeping sentiment fragile. ^[29]

Governance, CMA probe and legacy fire‑safety risk

Investors also have an eye on regulatory and legacy‑risk overhangs:

In 2025, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) moved toward closing its housebuilding investigation by accepting voluntary commitments from seven builders, including Taylor Wimpey, which agreed to contribute around £15.8m to support affordable housing schemes and tighten internal controls over data sharing, while denying wrongdoing. ^[30]
The large cladding and fire‑safety provisions taken in recent years – including the £222m hit in H1 2025 – reflect the cost of remediating high‑rise buildings built in the pre‑Grenfell era. There is still uncertainty over the final bill, though the company argues it has now set aside sufficient funds based on current regulations. ^[31]

On the governance side, there has been modest insider share buying: MarketBeat reported that CEO Jennie Daly bought small parcels of shares in September and November at around 100–105p, signalling some management confidence, albeit in relatively symbolic size. ^[32]

Investment case: cheap, cyclical, and highly sensitive to the UK housing story

Pulling the strands together, the Taylor Wimpey stock story on 2 December 2025 looks like this:

Positives

Discount valuation: sub‑1x price‑to‑book, EV/revenue under 1x, and forward P/E near low‑teens while consensus price targets sit 25–30% above spot. ^[33]
Rich income profile: ~9–9.5% cash dividend yield backed by a formal policy linked to net asset value. ^[34]
Strategic land and planning visibility: RBC and the company both highlight a long‑dated, consented landbank with strong coverage through 2028. ^[35]
Structural demand: the UK housing shortage, stabilising prices and slowly easing mortgage rates provide a supportive long‑term backdrop. ^[36]

Risks

Cyclical exposure: earnings remain tightly linked to UK consumer confidence, mortgage availability and policy shifts. A deeper downturn would hit volumes and margins hard. ^[37]
Legacy and regulatory costs: cladding remediation and CMA‑related commitments have already cost hundreds of millions of pounds and could move further if rules tighten again. ^[38]
Dividend sustainability: a near‑10% yield looks attractive, but payout ratios are high on current depressed earnings; any negative surprise on profits or remediation could pressure the dividend. ^[39]

Bottom line: why today’s upgrade is important for the Taylor Wimpey share price

Today’s RBC upgrade to “outperform” with a 150p target does not change the fact that Taylor Wimpey is a cyclical UK housebuilder facing real cost and policy headwinds. What it does change is the tone of the debate:

It reinforces the idea that the worst of the downturn may be passing, with modest volume growth and margin recovery pencilled in from 2026. ^[40]
It elevates Taylor Wimpey into the camp of land‑rich “self‑help” stories that can grow even in a slower market, rather than being purely dependent on a booming housing cycle. ^[41]
It highlights how a sub‑book‑value valuation plus a near‑10% yield offers potentially attractive risk‑reward for investors who can tolerate UK housing volatility and political risk. ^[42]

For cautious investors, those same factors – cyclical earnings, policy sensitivity and legacy liabilities – justify the market’s discount and the consensus “Hold” stance. For more risk‑tolerant income‑seekers who believe UK housing fundamentals will gradually reassert themselves, Taylor Wimpey’s combination of yield, asset backing and analyst‑flagged upside makes it one of the more closely watched UK housebuilding stocks as 2026 approaches.

References

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