Persimmon Plc (LON: PSN) Breaks Above 200-Day Average as RBC Upgrade and Strong Order Book Lift Outlook

2 December 2025 – UK housing stock news and analysis

Persimmon Plc’s share price is back in the spotlight after a powerful run through late November that has now pushed the FTSE 100 housebuilder above a key technical level and drawn a major broker upgrade on 2 December 2025. ^[1]

With a reinforced land pipeline, stronger forward order book and an improving macro backdrop for UK housing, investors are re‑assessing how far the Persimmon (LON: PSN) share price and dividend could go into 2026.

Persimmon share price today: above the 200‑day moving average

As of mid‑morning on 2 December 2025, Persimmon’s own investor relations site shows the share price around 1,351p, up roughly 21p on the day. ^[2]

According to MarketBeat, the stock has broken above its 200‑day moving average, which sits a little over 1,200p, after trading as high as roughly 1,335p in recent sessions. ^[3]

Some key context for the Persimmon share price:

Around 1,300–1,350p at recent closes, implying a market value just over £4.1bn. TS2 Tech+1
52‑week range: roughly 1,030p at the low to about 1,420p at the high – a strong recovery from the 2022–23 downturn but still well below pre‑pandemic peaks. TS2 Tech
On late‑November pricing, Hargreaves Lansdown data cited a price/earnings ratio of ~14x and forward dividend yield around 4.5–4.7%. TS2 Tech+1

Technical research site StockInvest expects a fair opening price around 1,325p for 2 December, with an intraday trading range between roughly 1,312p and 1,349p based on recent volatility. ^[4]

Put together, Persimmon is trading in the middle of its one‑year range but has just punched through a widely watched technical ceiling – often taken by momentum investors as a sign that the trend may be turning more decisively upward.

2 December highlight: RBC upgrade to Outperform with a £17.50 target

The big fresh catalyst on 2 December is a rating upgrade from RBC Capital.

RBC has raised Persimmon from “Sector Perform” to “Outperform”, lifting its price target from £13.75 to £17.50 a share. ^[5]
The bank points to Persimmon’s faster pace of site openings versus peers, arguing that this should translate into stronger sales volumes. ^[6]
RBC highlights three structural advantages:
- a greater mix of “self‑help” operational initiatives,
- strong vertical integration (Persimmon makes many of its own materials), and
- exposure to multiple demand segments across brands and regions. ^[7]

RBC’s new target is notably more bullish than the broader analyst consensus and comes in the same week that the bank cut ratings or targets on several rival housebuilders, including Berkeley and Barratt, underscoring Persimmon’s relative strength within the sector. ^[8]

Analyst sentiment: consensus “Buy” with mid‑teens upside

Beyond RBC, recent data from several platforms shows a generally positive, if not euphoric, view of Persimmon stock:

MarketBeat reports a “Moderate Buy” consensus based on seven analyst ratings (five Buy, two Hold), with an average 12‑month price target around 1,470p and a target range from roughly 1,300p to 1,790p. ^[9]
ValueInvesting.io collates a broader sample of around 28 analysts, finding an average target of about £15.03, implying ~13% upside from recent prices. The site classifies the overall recommendation as “Buy”, with no Sell ratings and a mix of Hold, Buy and Strong Buy opinions. ^[10]
The TS² TechStock² overview also notes a Goldman Sachs Buy rating with a 1,446p target, plus commentary from other brokers suggesting mid‑teens percentage upside from current levels. TS2 Tech

In short: human analysts broadly expect single‑ to mid‑teens price gains over the next year, with RBC now out in front as the most optimistic of the large banks.

Q3 2025 trading update: forward sales up 15%, guidance reaffirmed

Underpinning the more upbeat sentiment is a robust Q3 trading statement released on 13 November 2025 and an accompanying earnings call. ^[11]

Key operational metrics for the period from 1 July to early November 2025:

Forward sales up 15% year‑on‑year to £2.79bn, including legal completions since 1 July.
Private forward sales also up 15%, to about £2.09bn. ^[12]
Net private sales rate per outlet per week improved to 0.76 from 0.70 a year earlier. ^[13]
Average active outlets increased by 4% to 272 sites, while land holdings rose around 3% to roughly 83,800 plots. ^[14]

The company stated that it is trading in line with expectations and remains on track to deliver 2025 performance in line with market consensus of around 11,293 home completions and underlying pre‑tax profit of about £429m. ^[15]

On the earnings call, management added that:

Average selling prices are up about 1.5% year‑on‑year.
Persimmon plans to open around 100 new outlets next year, extending its geographic reach.
Interest costs are expected to rise from roughly £20m to £25m next year, reflecting a higher rate environment and investment in land and work‑in‑progress. ^[16]

Despite softer customer sentiment and affordability pressures, Persimmon reiterated guidance for volume and margin growth through 2026, citing low single‑digit build cost inflation and disciplined incentive use. ^[17]

Strategy: vertical integration, land pipeline and affordable housing

Persimmon’s strategy has increasingly revolved around two levers: vertical integration and pipeline visibility.

Vertical integration and margins

Analysis from TIKR highlights how Persimmon’s in‑house brick, tile and timber‑frame factories, along with internal planning and sales teams, have helped offset cost inflation and support margins through a tough housing cycle. ^[18]

In H1 2025, TIKR reports that Persimmon: ^[19]

Completed 4,605 homes, up about 4% year‑on‑year.
Grew average selling prices by 8% to roughly £284,000, helped by a richer mix from its premium Charles Church brand.
Delivered around £1.5bn of revenue, up 14%.
Raised underlying operating profit by around 13% to £172m, keeping the operating margin just above 13%.

Looking forward, Persimmon is targeting:

11,000–11,500 completions in 2025,
rising to about 12,000 homes in 2026,
with operating margins in the mid‑teens and a long‑term ambition to reach around 20% margins and returns on capital if the market normalises. ^[20]

Land deals and planning wins

A late‑November round‑up from TS² shows Persimmon steadily adding to and activating its land bank: TS2 Tech

Tamworth (Staffordshire) – acquisition of a 1,270‑home site with outline consent, giving another large, consented opportunity in the Midlands.
Draycott in Cam (Gloucestershire) – a planning inspector has approved a scheme for up to 795 homes near the M5 after Persimmon appealed local delays, unlocking a significant project in a constrained planning area.
Palace View, Scone (Scotland) – ground broken on a 104‑home development, with 37 units earmarked for a housing association, reflecting Persimmon’s role in affordable housing.
Jubilee Gardens, Warminster (Wiltshire) – ongoing 1,000‑home development, with about 300 homes designated for a housing association. A recent phase saw 15 homes handed to local provider Selwood Housing.
Abbots Vale, Bury St Edmunds (Suffolk) – new flagship scheme under the Charles Church brand, delivering 142 homes, including a sizeable affordable element.
Sherburn‑in‑Elmet (near Leeds) – joint Persimmon–Redrow application for 106 homes approved on appeal, with 20% of units to be affordable.

These moves sit atop an existing land bank of roughly 84,000 plots, giving Persimmon several years of forward build capacity and optionality across regions and price points. ^[21]

Customer satisfaction and regulatory overhang

Persimmon has historically faced criticism over build quality and customer care, but it has made visible progress:

The company has maintained a five‑star rating in the Home Builders Federation (HBF) customer satisfaction survey, with its 2024 and H1 2025 disclosures highlighting around 96% customer satisfaction. TS2 Tech

On the regulatory side, the UK Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has dropped a sector‑wide probe into major housebuilders, including Persimmon, in exchange for behavioural commitments and a combined £100m contribution to affordable housing. This removes a significant tail‑risk over potential fines or adverse findings, though political scrutiny of the sector remains high. TS2 Tech

Macro backdrop: UK housing demand expected to recover after budget

Persimmon’s story can’t be separated from the UK housing market, where policy and mortgage rates dominate demand.

A late‑November Reuters report notes that, following Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ first budget, analysts expect housing demand to gradually recover in 2026, as budget uncertainty clears and mortgage conditions become somewhat more favourable. ^[22]

Key points from that report: ^[23]

The budget left stamp duty unchanged – a relief for builders who feared extra transaction friction.
Improved government debt forecasts helped push gilt yields lower, which typically supports lower long‑term mortgage rates.
Homebuilder shares, including Persimmon, rose around 1–3% after the budget, reversing an initial dip.
A new annual property tax on homes over £2m from 2028 is expected to have little impact on Persimmon’s mid‑market focus.
The government’s stated goal to build 1.5 million homes before the next election, backed by streamlined planning rules, is seen as more important than any single tax tweak.

Nonetheless, affordability remains tight: Zoopla data cited in the same piece showed an 8% year‑on‑year drop in buyer demand in October amid budget uncertainty. ^[24]

For Persimmon, the emerging base case is of a slow thaw rather than a fast boom: improving conditions into 2026, but still a long way from the ultra‑cheap mortgage era.

Earnings and revenue forecasts to 2027

Third‑party forecast providers paint a picture of steady, rather than explosive, growth for Persimmon over the next few years.

Growth projections

Simply Wall St’s aggregate analyst model suggests: ^[25]

Earnings growth of ~15% per year over the next three years.
Revenue growth of ~6–7% per year, ahead of the broader UK market’s expected ~4% growth.
Return on equity rising towards about 11–12% by year three – respectable, but not “high‑growth tech stock” territory.

MarketScreener’s consensus numbers show a similar trend: ^[26]

Revenue rising from roughly £3.2bn in 2024 to an estimated £3.4bn in 2025, then £3.7–4.0bn by 2027.
EBITDA and EBIT growing faster than sales, as margins edge higher from the low‑teens to the mid‑teens.
Free cash flow rebounding from a weak 2023–24 patch to more than £200m a year by 2026–27, even after ongoing land investment.
The group remaining in a net cash position (negative net debt) throughout the forecast period, signalling balance sheet strength.

ValueInvesting.io’s model is consistent: revenue is expected to grow about 8% this year and again next year, while EPS rises from roughly 83p in 2024 to 96p in 2025 and 108p in 2026, implying double‑digit bottom‑line growth. ^[27]

None of these are promises, of course – they’re aggregated forecasts – but they illustrate why several banks now see Persimmon as a recovery‑phase cyclical rather than a value trap.

Dividend profile and capital structure

Income investors continue to watch Persimmon closely, given its long history of high payouts.

Dividends

StockInvest’s dividend history shows that in 2025 Persimmon has so far paid: ^[28]

40p per share (July 2025)
20p per share (November 2025)

Total ordinary dividends of 60p on a share price around 1,300–1,350p equate to a headline yield in the 4.4–4.7% range, broadly matching figures cited by Hargreaves Lansdown. TS2 Tech+1

Management has signalled a focus on sustainable dividends funded from underlying cash flows, rather than the extremely generous special distributions seen pre‑2020, especially while the group is investing heavily in land and outlet expansion. ^[29]

Share count and dilution

Recent regulatory filings provide clarity on Persimmon’s capital base:

As of 30 November 2025, the company had 320,459,736 ordinary shares of 10p in issue and no treasury shares, meaning the total voting rights equal the number of shares outstanding. ^[30]
A block listing interim review covering the period from June to November 2025 shows only modest issuance under employee share schemes: about 4,899 shares via the 2018 SAYE plan and 160,152 shares via the 2017 performance share plan, leaving more than 6.5m shares still unallotted under those schemes. ^[31]

For now, dilution from options appears limited, and the share count is relatively stable.

Valuation and technical picture

Putting the pieces together, how is the market currently valuing Persimmon?

From the late‑November TS² and Hargreaves Lansdown data: TS2 Tech+1

P/E ratio: roughly 14x trailing earnings.
Dividend yield: about 4.5–5%, assuming ordinary payouts remain around current levels.
Shares trade below long‑run valuation averages for the sector and below pre‑2022 multiples, but well above the 2023 troughs.

On the technical side: ^[32]

Price has climbed above the 200‑day moving average (around 1,210p).
Short‑term trading tools show resistance in the mid‑1,330s to mid‑1,340s and support a little above 1,300p, with daily moves of 2–3% entirely plausible.

Various AI‑driven and quantitative models lean mildly bullish in the near term, classifying Persimmon as a “buy candidate” on technical momentum, while noting the usual caveat that volatility and macro shocks can quickly reverse recent gains. ^[33]

Key risks to the Persimmon Plc investment case

Even with the RBC upgrade and stronger order book, several risks continue to hang over Persimmon stock:

Interest rates and affordability
Mortgage costs remain high by the standards of the 2010s, and management repeatedly flags affordability pressures as a headwind to demand. A slower‑than‑expected fall in financing costs, or renewed inflation, could choke off the nascent recovery. ^[34]
Planning and political risk
The Draycott/M5 appeal win shows how large schemes can be delayed or reshaped by local and national politics. Any reversal in planning reforms or additional developer levies could weigh on volumes and margins. TS2 Tech+1
Cost inflation and labour shortages
Persimmon aims for low single‑digit build cost inflation, but continues to face pressure from wages and materials. A renewed spike here would squeeze margins unless offset by further efficiency gains or price rises. ^[35]
Reputation and build quality
While the five‑star customer rating is a clear positive, reputational scars from past issues have not fully disappeared. Any high‑profile quality failures could hurt brand equity, planning outcomes and ultimately pricing power. TS2 Tech
Sector cyclicality
Housebuilding is cyclical by nature: if the broader UK economy underperforms, or unemployment rises sharply, demand for new homes could weaken regardless of policy support.

Bottom line: what 2 December 2025 means for Persimmon shareholders

For investors watching Persimmon Plc stock in Google News or Discover on 2 December 2025, the message is clear:

The share price has broken above a key technical average and is trading firmly in the mid‑1,300p range. ^[36]
RBC’s upgrade to Outperform and 1,750p target marks an important vote of confidence and sets a bullish tone relative to peers. ^[37]
The order book is 15% larger than a year ago, land holdings are up, and Persimmon is pushing ahead with new sites across the UK, from Scotland to the Midlands and the South West. ^[38]
Consensus forecasts point to mid‑teens earnings growth, slowly rising margins and a solid dividend yield, backed by a net‑cash balance sheet. ^[39]
At the same time, the investment case still depends heavily on an expected 2026 housing demand recovery, stable or falling interest rates, and continued discipline on build quality and costs. ^[40]

Nothing in the latest data guarantees a smooth ride – this is still a cyclical stock in a politically sensitive industry – but as of early December 2025, Persimmon Plc (LON: PSN) looks to many analysts like one of the better‑positioned ways to play a gradual thaw in the UK housing market, rather than a sector laggard.