BNS Stock (TSX:BNS) Near 52‑Week High After Q4 2025 Earnings Beat: What Scotiabank’s Results Mean for Investors

Bank of Nova Scotia stock — better known as BNS stock on the Toronto Stock Exchange — is back in the spotlight after the bank delivered a clean Q4 2025 earnings beat on December 2, 2025, while trading close to its 52‑week high. ^[1]

With Canadian bank stocks already priced at rich valuations, investors are asking the obvious question: is there still upside left in this Canadian dividend heavyweight, or is most of the good news now priced into BNS stock?

This article pulls together all the key news, forecasts and analysis dated December 2, 2025, plus the most recent target-price updates, to give you a clear, up‑to‑date view of Scotiabank’s investment case.

BNS stock price today: where Scotiabank stands

On December 2, 2025, Bank of Nova Scotia (TSX:BNS) closed around C$98 per share, with an intraday range roughly between C$96 and C$99, keeping it just shy of its 52‑week high near C$99–C$100. ^[2]

Over the last 12 months, BNS stock has delivered a gain of roughly 26–27%, outpacing many global banks and putting it firmly in “comeback” territory after a difficult 2023–2024 period. ^[3]

On the New York Stock Exchange, the U.S. listing (NYSE:BNS) was recently trading around US$70, broadly in line with the Canadian quote once exchange rates are factored in.

Fundamentally, BNS now carries:

A trailing P/E ratio of about 18x based on the Toronto quote. ^[4]
A 52‑week range roughly between C$62.5 and C$99+, highlighting how far the stock has climbed from last year’s lows. ^[5]

In other words: the easy, “deep value” money in BNS stock has likely already been made — which makes the quality and sustainability of its latest results extremely important for anyone buying today.

Q4 2025 earnings: BNS beats expectations on capital markets and wealth

On December 2, 2025, Scotiabank kicked off Canada’s big‑bank earnings week by reporting results for the quarter ended October 31, 2025 — and beat analyst expectations on both profit and revenue. ^[6]

Headline Q4 2025 numbers (reported)

According to the bank’s official news release and regulatory filings:

Reported Q4 net income:C$2.21 billion, up from C$1.69 billion a year earlier.
Reported diluted EPS:C$1.65, versus C$1.22 in Q4 2024.
Reported return on equity (ROE):11.0%, up from 8.3% a year ago. ^[7]

On an adjusted basis, which strips out restructuring and other one‑off items, performance looked even stronger:

Adjusted Q4 net income:C$2.56 billion, up from C$2.12 billion in the prior‑year quarter.
Adjusted diluted EPS:C$1.93, vs C$1.57 last year and ahead of analyst estimates around C$1.84. ^[8]

Revenue growth was also solid:

Net interest income (what the bank earns on loans minus what it pays on deposits) rose to about C$5.59 billion from C$4.92 billion a year earlier. ^[9]
Non‑interest income (fees, wealth management, trading, etc.) climbed to roughly C$4.2 billion from C$3.6 billion. ^[10]

In U.S. dollar terms, Zacks’ analysis of the quarter highlighted EPS of US$1.39, beating its consensus estimate of US$1.33, and revenue of about US$7.06 billion, roughly 5.6% above expectations. ^[11]

What drove the beat?

Both Scotiabank and independent outlets point to two standout engines:

Global Banking & Markets: Net income in the capital markets arm jumped by nearly 50% year‑over‑year in Q4, supported by strong trading, underwriting, and advisory activity. ^[12]
Global Wealth Management: Wealth earnings climbed sharply, helped by higher mutual fund and investment management fees, plus growth in brokerage revenue and interest income. ^[13]

At the same time, Scotiabank raised provisions for credit losses to about C$1.11 billion, up from C$1.03 billion in Q4 2024, reflecting management’s caution around credit risk despite a relatively resilient economy. ^[14]

The bank also recorded a C$373 million restructuring charge tied to layoffs and streamlining in Canadian Banking and its Asia operations within Global Banking & Markets, as it continues to simplify its footprint and align with its North American corridor strategy. ^[15]

Full‑year 2025 picture: flat reported earnings, strong adjusted growth

Zooming out to the full fiscal year 2025, the story becomes more nuanced — especially when comparing reported to adjusted results.

Reported 2025 results

For the year ended October 31, 2025, Scotiabank reported:

Reported net income:C$7.76 billion, slightly below C$7.89 billion in 2024.
Reported diluted EPS:C$5.67, down from C$5.87 the previous year.
Reported ROE:9.7%, versus 10.2% in 2024. ^[16]

Restructuring costs, severance, and legal provisions kept reported earnings growth below management’s own medium‑term targets.

Adjusted 2025 results

On an adjusted basis, however, 2025 was clearly a step forward:

Adjusted net income:C$9.51 billion, up from C$8.63 billion.
Adjusted diluted EPS:C$7.09 vs C$6.47, an increase of about 9.6%.
Adjusted ROE:11.8%, up from 11.3% in 2024. ^[17]

Management’s own scorecard shows that while Scotiabank missed its 7%+ EPS growth and 14%+ ROE goals on a reported basis, it met or exceeded them on an adjusted basis, and delivered positive operating leverage (revenue growing faster than expenses) on that adjusted view. ^[18]

Business line snapshots

From the bank’s 2025 highlights: ^[19]

Canadian Banking (adjusted earnings ~C$3.43B): down about 9% year‑over‑year, pressured by higher credit losses and lower net interest margins after Bank of Canada rate cuts, though Q4 showed improving trends.
International Banking (adjusted earnings ~C$2.81B): up 2%, with ROE around 14.7%, supported by portfolio optimization and disciplined expenses.
Global Wealth Management (adjusted earnings ~C$1.71B): up 17%, driven by higher mutual fund fees, brokerage revenue and increased assets under management, which reached about C$432 billion.
Global Banking & Markets (earnings ~C$1.92B): up 30%, thanks to strong capital markets performance and higher underwriting and advisory fees.

CEO Scott Thomson described 2025 as “a very positive year for the Bank,” pointing to a stronger balance sheet, better loan‑to‑deposit ratios and higher ROE, while also stressing that all major business lines delivered year‑over‑year earnings growth in the final quarter. ^[20]

Strategy check: North American corridor, Davivienda, and KeyCorp

Scotiabank has spent the past two years repositioning its geographic footprint and re‑focusing on the North American trade corridor:

It transferred operations in Colombia, Costa Rica and Panama to Colombian lender Davivienda, in exchange for a roughly 20% stake in the partner bank, trimming direct exposure to smaller Latin American retail operations while keeping a presence in the region via an equity holding. ^[21]
It struck a US$2.8 billion deal to acquire a 14.99% stake in U.S. regional bank KeyCorp, which is now contributing tens of millions of dollars in earnings per quarter and deepening Scotiabank’s cross‑border banking footprint. ^[22]

Reuters notes that under its new leadership, Scotiabank has become more selective, exiting underperforming markets and leaning into fee‑based businesses like wealth management and capital markets. ^[23]

That strategy — plus 2025’s earnings recovery — is a key underpinning of today’s higher BNS valuation.

Dividend, capital and buybacks: the income story for BNS stock

For many investors looking at Canadian bank stocks, the dividend is the main attraction.

Dividend: ~4.5% yield

Scotiabank currently pays a quarterly dividend of C$1.10 per share, restored to growth earlier in 2025 after a cautious period. ^[24]

At a share price just under C$100, that equates to an annualized dividend of C$4.40, or a yield close to 4.5% — competitive even within Canada’s famously high‑yield bank sector. ^[25]

Recent announcements from Seeking Alpha and other data providers confirm that the C$1.10 dividend has been maintained into the latest quarter despite restructuring charges. ^[26]

Capital strength

Scotiabank’s Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio — a key regulatory capital metric — stands at 13.2%, modestly above last year’s level and comfortably above regulatory minimums. ^[27]

That gives the bank room to:

Absorb potential credit losses if the economy weakens.
Continue returning capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.

Share buybacks: up to 20 million shares

In May 2025, the bank secured approval for a normal course issuer bid (NCIB) allowing it to repurchase up to 20 million common shares, roughly 1.6% of its shares outstanding, between May 30, 2025 and May 29, 2026. ^[28]

Combined with the dividend, this reinforces Scotiabank’s role as a capital‑return story — attractive for income‑focused investors, but also contributing to a high payout ratio that leaves somewhat less internal capital for growth if conditions deteriorate. TS2 Tech+1

How rich is BNS stock now? Valuation context

Ahead of this week’s earnings, Reuters highlighted that Canada’s big six banks, including Scotiabank, are trading at about 12.9x forward earnings on average, roughly a 23% premium to their 10‑year average multiples. ^[29]

Analysts quoted in that piece described the sector as “fully valued,” warning that any earnings miss could hurt the group’s high multiples. ^[30]

For BNS specifically:

Yahoo Finance data show a trailing P/E near 18x based on the C$ quote. ^[31]
The stock trades right below its 52‑week high after a 20%+ run‑up over the past year. ^[32]

So while BNS is not the most expensive Canadian bank, it’s also no longer the “deep value laggard” it was in 2023–2024.

Analyst ratings and BNS stock forecasts for 2026

Analyst opinion on BNS is constructive but not wildly bullish, especially after the recent rally.

TSX‑listed BNS (C$ price targets)

MarketBeat reports that 12 analysts covering TSX:BNS have an average 12‑month target around C$90–C$91, with individual targets ranging from the high C$70s to about C$108. At an earlier price of ~C$96, that implied a small downside against the consensus average, but meaningful upside to the most bullish targets. ^[33]
Investing.com’s consensus for BNS similarly shows an average target in the mid‑C$90s, with a high estimate around C$108. ^[34]

Several recent target‑price moves are worth flagging:

UBS analyst Jill Shea raised her target on Scotiabank from C$94 to C$106 in late November 2025 and reiterated a Buy rating. ^[35]
Other brokerages such as Raymond James and Canaccord have also nudged targets higher into the C$98–C$108 range while maintaining positive ratings. ^[36]

NYSE‑listed BNS (US$ price targets)

For the U.S. listing:

StockAnalysis aggregates forecasts showing an average U.S. dollar target of about US$80, implying mid‑teens upside from recent U.S. prices around US$70. ^[37]
RBC Capital’s Darko Mihelic, for example, maintains a Hold rating with a target raised from US$80 to US$86, indicating moderate upside but not a screaming bargain. ^[38]

Quant and AI‑driven views

AI platform Danelfin assigns BNS an AI Score of 7/10 (Buy), estimating around a 60% probability that the stock will outperform the average U.S. stock over the next three months, and noting a 1‑year average target near US$67 from covered analysts. ^[39]

Bottom line on forecasts:
Consensus across traditional analysts and AI models points to modest additional upside from current levels, with more bullish houses seeing scope for high single‑digit to low double‑digit returns over the next year if execution remains strong.

Key drivers for BNS stock after Q4 2025

Going forward, several forces are likely to drive the BNS share price:

1. Capital markets and wealth momentum

BNS is increasingly leaning on capital markets and global wealth management — both of which grew earnings at double‑digit rates in 2025 — to offset slower growth in traditional retail banking. ^[40]

If deal activity, trading volumes and asset prices stay healthy in 2026, those higher‑margin businesses could continue to support EPS growth even if loan growth remains muted.

2. Interest‑rate environment

Global markets currently expect U.S. and Canadian rate cuts into 2026, which could pressure net interest margins over time. ^[41]

For Scotiabank, that means:

Lower borrowing costs could ease stress on Canadian households and businesses, potentially reducing future credit losses.
But lower prime rates also compress loan spreads, requiring either volume growth, more fee income, or continued cost cuts to protect profitability. TS2 Tech+1

3. North American corridor and cross‑border deals

The KeyCorp stake and Davivienda transaction give Scotiabank diversified earnings streams and optional growth in the U.S. and Latin America, while shifting capital away from smaller sub‑scale operations. ^[42]

If those partnerships deliver higher‑than‑expected profit contributions, they could help BNS outperform peers whose growth is more domestically constrained.

4. Capital returns

With a CET1 ratio above 13% and a buyback program running through May 2026, BNS is positioned to keep retiring shares and paying a robust dividend — a combination that tends to support total returns over time, especially if earnings keep rising. ^[43]

Main risks to the BNS stock thesis

No Canadian bank stock is risk‑free, especially at elevated valuations. For BNS, investors should keep a close eye on:

1. Credit risk and the Canadian housing market

Analysts and regulators remain concerned about Canadian households facing higher mortgage payments as fixed‑rate loans reset, and about possible stress in private credit and non‑bank lenders that could spill back onto the banks. ^[44]

Scotiabank has already shown how quickly results can be hit if it needs to build reserves: in mid‑2025 it missed profit estimates after boosting loan‑loss provisions to about C$1.40 billion, above market expectations. ^[45]

2. Valuation and sentiment risk

With the big six Canadian banks trading at a premium to their decade‑long average multiples, even a small earnings disappointment or softer 2026 guidance could trigger a pullback. ^[46]

For BNS specifically, the dividend yield and buybacks provide some cushion, but at prices near a 52‑week high the margin of safety is thinner than it was a year ago.

3. Execution on restructuring and international strategy

Scotiabank is still right‑sizing its operations in Asia and Latin America, and integrating its Davivienda and KeyCorp partnerships. Any missteps — regulatory, operational, or credit‑related — could erode the earnings uplift that investors are now pricing in. ^[47]

4. High payout ratio

Between a 4.5% dividend yield and ongoing buybacks, BNS returns a large portion of earnings to shareholders. That’s attractive today, but it can limit retained capital for future growth or downturn buffers, potentially forcing management to slow buybacks or freeze the dividend if conditions worsen. TS2 Tech+2iO Charts+2

Is BNS stock a buy, hold, or sell after Q4 2025?

Only you can decide how BNS fits into your portfolio, but the market’s current message can be summarized as:

Quality Canadian bank with improving fundamentals: Adjusted earnings and ROE are moving in the right direction, and 2025’s strong Q4 suggests Scotiabank has regained momentum after earlier credit‑loss-driven disappointments. ^[48]
Attractive income profile, but no longer cheap: A ~4.5% dividend yield from a well‑capitalized, systemically important bank is appealing, yet valuation multiples and the 12‑month rally mean the stock is priced for continued execution. ^[49]
Consensus: mild upside, not explosive growth: Most analysts sit around Hold to moderate Buy, with average targets close to current levels and bullish outliers up to the low C$100s. ^[50]

Very roughly:

If you’re a long‑term, income‑oriented investor who can tolerate bank‑sector and credit‑cycle risk, BNS still looks like a solid candidate for a diversified dividend portfolio.
If you’re a value investor waiting for an obvious bargain, BNS at today’s price probably doesn’t qualify; a pullback or a further acceleration in earnings could change that.
If you’re a short‑term trader, remember that the rest of the Canadian banks report over the coming days, and any sector‑wide surprise — positive or negative — could move BNS sharply in either direction. ^[51]

As always, this article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not personalized investment advice. Before buying or selling BNS stock, consider your own risk tolerance, time horizon and financial situation, and, where appropriate, consult a licensed financial adviser.