Experian PLC (LON: EXPN) Stock on 3 December 2025: Share Price, AI Cybersecurity Push, Buybacks and 2026 Forecasts

Experian PLC’s share price is drifting near the lower half of its 2025 range even as the company posts record first‑half results, ramps up AI‑driven products and continues an active share buyback programme. Analysts still see double‑digit upside over the next 12 months, but technical models have turned cautious and competitive pressure from FICO’s new direct‑licensing model looms over the medium term. ^[1]

Experian share price today (3 December 2025)

On Wednesday 3 December 2025, Experian shares trade around 3,280–3,300p on the London Stock Exchange. The Financial Times’ live quote shows 3,284p, down about 0.7% intraday, leaving the stock roughly 11–12% lower than a year ago. ^[2]

Key snapshot metrics:

Ticker: EXPN (LSE), EXPGY / EXPGF (US OTC) ^[3]
Market cap: ~£30.2bn ^[4]
12‑month range:3,049p (low) to 4,101p (high) ^[5]
Trailing P/E ratio: ~26x–29x, depending on the data source and currency translation ^[6]
Dividend yield: roughly 1.4–1.6%, based on a 2025 dividend of about $0.61 per share (with analyst expectations of ~$0.69 for the coming year) ^[7]

On the US OTC market, the EXPGY ADR last closed near $43.7–$43.8, also sitting well below its 2025 highs. ^[8]

In short, Experian currently trades at a premium multiple versus the broader FTSE 100, but at a discount to where it stood earlier in the year.

Technical picture: models flag near‑term downside risk

Short‑term trading signals have become more cautious in early December:

Technical site StockInvest now classifies EXPN as a “Sell candidate” after the 2 December session, when the price slipped from 3,311p to 3,308p and extended a three‑day losing streak. ^[9]
The stock is described as being in the middle of a falling short‑term trend channel, with the model projecting a potential ~15% decline over the next three months, implying a range around 2,693–2,924p if the current trend persists. ^[10]
For today (3 December), StockInvest’s volatility framework suggests an intraday range of roughly 3,272–3,344p, with nearby support at ~3,289p and short‑term resistance around 3,314p. ^[11]

The US‑listed ADR tells a similar story. A MarketBeat note on EXPGY highlights a 158% surge in trading volume on Monday, with the ADR trading around $43.79, but still below both its 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages ($46.67 and $50.10 respectively). ^[12]

Technically, then, Experian looks like a fundamentally strong business in a de‑rating phase: price momentum is soft, moving averages are rolling over, and quantitative models are wary despite reasonably steady fundamentals.

Fundamentals: record H1 FY26 and upgraded guidance

Experian’s financial performance over the last 12 months remains one of the main anchors for the bull case.

H1 FY26 results

For the half year to 30 September 2025 (H1 FY26), Experian reported: ^[13]

Revenue (ongoing activities):$4,058m, +13% at actual rates and +12% at constant currency, with 8% organic revenue growth.
Benchmark EBIT (ongoing):$1,149m, up 14%, with benchmark EBIT margin up 50 basis points.
Benchmark EPS:85.0 US cents, up 12–13% year‑on‑year.
Statutory profit before tax:$975m, up about 36%.
First interim dividend:21.25 US cents, a 10% increase versus the prior year. ^[14]

Management described performance as “at the top end” of expectations and highlighted strong contributions from both the Business‑to‑Business and Consumer Services segments, helped by product innovation and AI‑driven enhancements across platforms. ^[15]

Upgraded full‑year FY26 guidance

On the back of that first‑half performance, Experian raised its full‑year FY26 outlook: ^[16]

Total revenue growth: now expected at ~11%,
Organic revenue growth:~8%,
Margin accretion:+30–50 basis points,

all at constant currency and on an ongoing basis. This guidance sits at the top end of the previous 9–11% revenue growth range.

Independent analysis from outlets such as Investing.com and Smartkarma broadly confirms that Experian beat consensus on revenue and EPS in H1 FY26 and that the upgraded guidance modestly exceeds the company‑compiled consensus (which had assumed ~7.5–8% organic growth). ^[17]

Strategic focus: AI, cybersecurity and regtech

Beyond the headline numbers, Experian is leaning heavily into AI, fraud prevention and regulatory technology – themes that feature prominently in the latest news flow.

2026 Data Breach Industry Forecast: AI as “major threat”

On 2 December 2025, Experian released its 2026 Data Breach Industry Forecast, the thirteenth edition of its annual cyber‑risk outlook. ^[18]

The forecast:

Frames AI‑driven attacks – including deepfakes, AI‑generated phishing and automated credential‑stuffing – as a primary cybersecurity threat for 2026.
Highlights the persistently high volume and cost of data breaches in the US and globally, and
Promotes Experian’s Data Breach Resolution services and identity‑protection offerings as part of the mitigation toolkit.

The report dovetails with Experian’s broader narrative that it is not just a credit bureau but a data‑driven risk and identity platform, operating in markets where cyber and fraud risks are structurally increasing. ^[19]

Credit + Cashflow Score: more data, more inclusion

In November 2025, Experian announced the Experian Credit + Cashflow Score, which combines: ^[20]

Traditional credit data,
Alternative and trended data, and
Consumer‑permissioned open‑banking / cash‑flow data (via partners such as Plaid),

into a single composite score.

Experian claims this model can improve predictive performance by over 40% versus conventional scores and help lenders underwrite “thin‑file” borrowers more confidently. The score also positions Experian as a direct competitor to newer cash‑flow‑based scoring approaches, potentially offsetting some of the margin pressure created by FICO’s recent strategic shift (see below).

KYC360 acquisition and regtech expansion

On 27 October 2025, Experian announced the acquisition of KYC360, a UK‑based provider of AML, KYC and KYB compliance tools. ^[21]

Key points:

KYC360’s workflow and screening tools will be integrated into Experian’s Ascend platform from 2026, strengthening its financial crime and compliance capabilities. ^[22]
The acquisition aims to deepen relationships with banks, insurers and legal firms that face rising regulatory burdens around anti‑money‑laundering and sanctions screening.

This deal follows a series of smaller data and analytics acquisitions over recent years and fits the company’s stated strategy of shifting revenue mix toward software‑ and analytics‑driven solutions.

Responsible AI and the Experian virtual assistant

Experian is also emphasising its Responsible AI framework and consumer‑facing AI tools:

A recent Experian report on UK business leaders found that 87% expect Responsible AI to become a key strategic advantage within two to three years, with 89% saying AI is already improving business performance, but a majority still struggling with implementation and data‑quality issues. ^[23]
Industry coverage from Finextra, TechRadar and others has positioned Experian as a notable evangelist for governed, explainable AI in credit and fraud analytics. ^[24]
At the consumer level, Experian is rolling out an AI‑driven virtual assistant, often referred to as “Eva”, which provides tailored financial guidance, helps users manage subscriptions, negotiate bills and even freeze credit files via the Experian app. ^[25]

Taken together, these initiatives support the view of Experian as a long‑term AI and data‑infrastructure play, not just a traditional credit‑bureau.

Capital returns: share buybacks and dividends

Experian has been returning capital through both dividends and share repurchases.

Ongoing share repurchase programme

On 16 June 2025, the company formally launched a share repurchase programme running through 30 June 2026, primarily to satisfy obligations from employee share schemes. ^[26]

Since then, Experian has regularly reported “Transaction in Own Shares” notices:

On 27 November 2025, it repurchased 19,000 shares at prices between 3,300p and 3,332p, with a weighted average of about 3,322p. ^[27]
Earlier in 2025, weekly summaries showed multiple repurchases in the 3,800–3,900p range when the share price was higher. ^[28]

TipRanks and other aggregators frame this as a capital management strategy rather than a large‑scale reduction in share count, but it still provides some ongoing support to EPS and signals management confidence. ^[29]

Dividend profile

According to LSEG / FT data and Experian’s own consensus table: ^[30]

Experian paid about $0.61 per share in dividends in 2025, up roughly 5% year‑on‑year.
Analysts expect around $0.69 in dividends for the next fiscal year, implying low‑teens dividend growth.

With the share price in the low‑30‑pounds region, this translates into a modest yield, well under 2%, but consistent with a company prioritising growth and reinvestment over income.

Analyst views and 12‑month share price forecasts

Across major data providers, Experian still enjoys a broadly positive analyst stance, even after this year’s de‑rating.

Broker ratings

MarketBeat (LON: EXPN):
- Consensus rating: Moderate Buy.
- 6 analysts:5 Buy, 1 Hold, 0 Sell. ^[31]
FT / LSEG consensus:
- Broader coverage suggests ~19 rated opinions (Buy, Outperform, Hold, etc.), with the skew strongly towards Buy/Outperform and only a small number of Hold or Sell calls. ^[32]
MarketScreener (J2B: Stuttgart listing):
- 17 analysts, mean consensus: Buy, with a consensus rating score above peers in the Industrials / Business Services cohort. ^[33]
TipRanks (EXPGY / EXPN):
- “Smart Score” / AI‑driven tools currently classify Experian as an “Outperform” idea, citing strong earnings trends and positive sentiment on recent calls, though flagging relatively rich valuation and mixed technicals. ^[34]

A recent Seeking Alpha column likewise rated Experian a “Buy”, arguing that the stock’s current valuation looks attractive in a multi‑year context relative to its own history and to peers such as Equifax and TransUnion. ^[35]

12‑month price targets

Different datasets vary slightly, but they cluster in a 25–35% implied upside band:

MarketBeat (LON: EXPN):
- Average target:4,320.4p.
- Range:4,102–4,600p.
- Implied upside: ~31–32% from a reference price around 3,283p. ^[36]
FT / LSEG (15 analysts):
- Median 12‑month target:4,509.19 (USD‑translated but based on the same underlying shares).
- High:5,561.19; Low:3,056.08.
- Median implies roughly 36% upside from a last price of 3,308p at the time of compilation. ^[37]
Investing.com:
- Average target: around 4,350p, with a consensus rating of “Buy” from 15 analysts. ^[38]
Company‑compiled consensus (Experian’s own website):
- Average FY26 revenue:$8.416bn, with 8.0% organic revenue growth.
- Average benchmark EBIT:$2.397bn.
- Average benchmark EPS:178.5 US cents.
- Average DPS:70.0 US cents. ^[39]

Overlaying these, the “central tendency” of analyst opinion is high‑single‑digit revenue growth, mid‑teens EPS growth and roughly 30% upside to perceived fair value over 12 months, albeit with meaningful dispersion between the most bullish and most cautious estimates.

Competitive shock: FICO’s direct‑licensing move and VantageScore response

One of the biggest medium‑term negatives hanging over all three major credit bureaus is FICO’s decision to sell scores directly to mortgage lenders and resellers.

FICO cuts out the middleman

On 2 October 2025, Fair Isaac (FICO) announced that it would license its widely used FICO scores directly to mortgage resellers and lenders in the US, instead of relying solely on Experian, Equifax and TransUnion as intermediaries. ^[40]

Reports from Reuters and other outlets note that the move is intended to increase price transparency and reduce what some lenders saw as a ~100% markup historically charged by credit bureaus. ^[41]
The announcement triggered a sharp sell‑off in credit‑bureau stocks; Experian fell around 8% intraday on the news. ^[42]
Analysts have suggested the impact on bureau earnings from the mortgage‑score channel alone could be in the 10–15% range if lenders migrate en masse to the new direct licensing model. ^[43]

Equifax & VantageScore fight back

The story didn’t end there. In response, Equifax launched an aggressive pricing offensive:

Equifax now offers VantageScore 4.0 – a credit score jointly owned by Equifax, Experian and TransUnion – at roughly $4.50, compared with FICO’s higher price points, and has promised free VantageScore access for some clients that continue buying FICO scores through 2025–26. ^[44]

This intensifies competition in the US mortgage scoring market but also underlines that Experian has two dogs in the fight: it resells FICO and co‑owns VantageScore. The ultimate impact on Experian’s economics will depend on:

How quickly lenders adopt FICO’s direct programme,
How much volume shifts to VantageScore‑based solutions, and
Whether Experian can offset margin pressure via higher‑value analytics, fraud‑detection and credit‑decisioning offerings.

Experian’s public pushback

Experian has responded publicly via its own blog, arguing that FICO’s changes may actually increase costs for lenders and consumers:

The company notes that FICO doubled its royalty fee from $4.95 to $10 per score in October, and criticises the new direct‑licence model as adding “unnecessary technological, operational and regulatory complexity”. ^[45]

This messaging positions Experian as an advocate for cost transparency in mortgage credit reporting, but the underlying revenue and margin risk remains a key part of the bear case.

Regulatory and legal backdrop: the CFPB lawsuit

Experian also faces regulatory scrutiny, particularly in the United States.

On 7 January 2025, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) filed a lawsuit against Experian Information Solutions, alleging that the company failed to properly investigate consumer disputes, reinstated incorrect information, and did not follow reasonable procedures to ensure accuracy of credit files – potential violations of the Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA) and the Consumer Financial Protection Act. ^[46]
In August 2025, a federal judge dismissed the initial complaint without prejudice, allowing the CFPB to amend and refile; media reports at the time characterised this as a procedural setback for the regulator rather than a full victory for Experian. ^[47]
Subsequent filings indicate that parts of the amended case have been allowed to proceed, while some older alleged violations have been trimmed on statute‑of‑limitations grounds. ^[48]

The case adds to a wider US debate about credit‑reporting practices and sits alongside enforcement actions against peers (for example, Equifax’s $15m fine over its own dispute‑handling issues earlier in 2025). ^[49]

For investors, this means a non‑trivial tail risk of fines, mandated process changes or reputational damage, even though no final judgment has been reached.

Valuation, bull case and bear case

With the stock trading in the low‑3,000s and consensus targets around 4,300–4,500p, the market is essentially debating whether Experian is a quality compounder on sale or a still‑expensive franchise facing structural headwinds.

Bull case in brief

Supporters of Experian tend to focus on:

Structural growth tailwinds: Digitisation of lending, e‑commerce and identity verification should keep demand for credit data, fraud detection and decisioning analytics growing faster than GDP. TS2 Tech
Strong execution: H1 FY26 delivered 8% organic revenue growth and margin expansion, while FY26 guidance calls for 11% total revenue growth and 30–50 bps of additional margin, indicating continued operating leverage. ^[50]
Data and platform moat: Years of investment in datasets, analytics platforms (such as Ascend) and AI capabilities make it hard for new entrants to replicate Experian’s breadth in credit, identity and marketing data. ^[51]
Diversification beyond traditional credit reports: Acquisitions like KYC360, launch of the Credit + Cashflow Score and consumer‑app innovation (including the Eva assistant) broaden the revenue mix into faster‑growing adjacencies like regtech, open‑banking analytics and financial‑wellness tools. ^[52]
Analyst support and upside: Across MarketBeat, FT/LSEG, Investing.com and others, the average 12‑month upside is in the 25–35% region, with the vast majority of ratings in the Buy/Outperform bucket. ^[53]

Bear case in brief

Sceptics highlight several risks:

Premium valuation: Even after the pullback, Experian trades on a mid‑ to high‑20s trailing P/E and a PEG ratio around 2.5, with a sub‑2% dividend yield – leaving limited margin for error if growth slows or regulatory costs rise. ^[54]
FICO direct‑licensing threat: If lenders embrace buying FICO scores directly, the 10–15% earnings hit some analysts fear could materialise over time, forcing Experian to cut prices, accept volume losses, or lean harder on newer products to sustain EPS growth. ^[55]
Regulatory overhang: The CFPB lawsuit and a generally fluid US regulatory environment for consumer credit create an unquantifiable but real legal and reputational risk, even if ultimate fines prove manageable relative to Experian’s earnings base. ^[56]
Cyclicality and regional exposure: Parts of Experian’s portfolio remain sensitive to credit cycles and consumer health, especially in the UK and Latin America. Macro data from late 2025 show a mixed picture for mortgage and consumer lending, which could dampen new‑loan origination volumes in some segments. ^[57]
Weak short‑term technicals: The stock is trading below its 50‑ and 200‑day moving averages, with some models projecting further downside into the high‑2,000s if the current trend persists, even as fundamentals remain solid. ^[58]

What to watch into 2026

For investors and market watchers following Experian from here, several catalysts loom large:

Delivery vs FY26 guidance
- Can Experian hit its 11% total revenue growth and 30–50 bps margin expansion targets in the face of macro and competitive headwinds? Upcoming trading updates and the full‑year FY26 results will be critical checkpoints. ^[59]
Adoption of Credit + Cashflow Score and regtech tools
- The pace at which lenders adopt Experian’s new Credit + Cashflow Score and integrated KYC360 / Ascend offerings will show how quickly the company can re‑weight revenue toward higher‑value analytics and compliance solutions. ^[60]
Evolution of the FICO / VantageScore landscape
- Watch for commentary from US mortgage lenders, FICO and the three bureaus on pricing, volumes and market share as the direct‑licensing model rolls out and VantageScore’s new pricing incentives bite. ^[61]
Regulatory updates on the CFPB case
- Any settlement, dismissal or adverse judgment in the CFPB lawsuit could move the stock, either by removing an overhang or crystallising a financial / operational cost that needs to be modelled into forecasts. ^[62]
Valuation re‑rating (up or down)
- With consensus 12‑month targets in the mid‑4,000s pence, the key question is whether the market eventually re‑rates Experian back toward its historical premium as AI‑ and analytics‑driven growth compounds, or whether competitive and regulatory risks cause that premium to compress further.