Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) has entered December 2025 near the top of its 52‑week range, with fresh “Buy” ratings, a higher dividend, and a set of headline‑grabbing strategic moves that stretch from Texas to Iraq and Guyana. At the same time, Wall Street is warning that crude prices could be materially lower by 2026, putting the focus squarely on which oil majors can thrive in a mid‑cycle pricing world.
As of intraday trading on December 3, 2025, Exxon Mobil stock is changing hands around $117.9 per share, up roughly 2.2% on the day, giving the company a market capitalization close to $490 billion. Ts2 Tech Shares sit just a few dollars below their 52‑week high near $120.81, and well above the 12‑month low around $97.80. [1]
Below is a news‑driven, SEO‑friendly breakdown of everything investors need to know about Exxon Mobil stock as of December 3, 2025 – including the latest headlines, analyst forecasts, valuation debate, macro oil outlook and key risks.
1. Where Exxon Mobil Stock Stands on December 3, 2025
- Current price: about $117.9 per share, intraday.
- Daily move: up roughly 2.2% versus yesterday’s close around $115.4. [2]
- 52‑week range: roughly $97.80 – $120.81. [3]
- Market cap: just under $490 billion. Ts2 Tech+1
- Dividend yield: with a quarterly dividend of $1.03 per share (annualized $4.12), the forward yield sits around 3.5% at current prices. [4]
Over the past 12 months, Exxon Mobil has delivered low‑to‑mid single‑digit price gains and a high‑single‑digit total return once dividends are included, but it has lagged the S&P 500, which has been driven higher by tech and AI‑related names. [5]
In other words, XOM today is a yield‑oriented mega‑cap trading near the top of its range, priced more like a “steady compounder” than a distressed cyclical.
2. Today’s Key Headlines Moving Exxon Mobil
2.1 UBS launches coverage with a $145 “Buy” target
On December 1, 2025, UBS assumed coverage of Exxon Mobil with a “Buy” rating and a $145 price target, implying more than 20% upside from recent prices. [6]
UBS joins an already bullish group of brokers:
- Wells Fargo: “Overweight” with a $156 target. [7]
- Scotiabank: “Sector Outperform” with a raised target from $128 to $155. [8]
- Piper Sandler: “Overweight,” boosting its target from $141 to $144 in November. [9]
The UBS call reinforces a pattern: while Exxon isn’t the cheapest energy stock, many analysts see its low‑cost barrels in Guyana and the Permian, plus its fortress balance sheet, as worthy of a valuation premium.
2.2 Big institutional investors are quietly adding to XOM
Fresh 13F filings highlight ongoing institutional appetite for Exxon Mobil:
- CW Advisors LLC lifted its position by 15.8%, buying 54,890 shares to hold about 402,340 shares worth more than $43 million. [10]
- RPg Family Wealth Advisory LLC boosted its stake by over 1,100%, adding nearly 40,000 shares in Q2 to reach 43,392 shares valued around $4.68 million. [11]
- Other large institutions – including Vanguard, Geode, BNY Mellon, Charles Schwab, and Norway’s sovereign wealth fund (Norges Bank) – have also added to positions, leaving institutional ownership around 62% of shares outstanding. [12]
While 13F data is backward‑looking, the pattern supports a medium‑term conviction among large, long‑only investors.
2.3 West Qurna 2: Exxon eyes a giant Iraqi oilfield
One of the biggest late‑breaking stories for Exxon in early December is its reported interest in Iraq’s West Qurna 2 oilfield:
- Reuters reported that Exxon has approached Iraq’s oil ministry about buying Lukoil’s 75% stake in West Qurna 2, one of the largest oilfields in the world. Ts2 Tech
- The field produces around 470,000 barrels per day, equal to roughly 0.5% of global oil supply and about 9% of Iraq’s output. Ts2 Tech
- Due to sanctions, potential buyers have until December 13, 2025 to engage with Lukoil, and any deal would require formal U.S. approval. Ts2 Tech
- Iraqi officials reportedly favor Exxon as a buyer, citing its technical and financial capacity to manage such a complex asset. Ts2 Tech
For investors, West Qurna 2 would add another large, long‑life, low‑cost upstream asset, but with heightened geopolitical risk. Markets will be watching closely for:
- Acquisition price and structure
- Capex commitments
- How Exxon balances Iraq exposure with its already huge growth engines in Guyana and the Permian Basin [13]
2.4 Hydrogen pivot: Baytown “blue hydrogen” project put on ice
On the energy‑transition front, Exxon has sent a different kind of signal:
- On November 21, Reuters reported that Exxon has paused plans for a multi‑billion‑dollar “blue hydrogen” plant at its Baytown, Texas complex, after failing to secure enough customers willing to sign long‑term contracts at attractive prices. Ts2 Tech+1
- The project, a partnership with ADNOC, was expected to produce hydrogen from natural gas with carbon capture and storage and had already absorbed roughly $500 million in investment. Ts2 Tech
- Follow‑up reporting noted that a previously awarded $300M+ U.S. Department of Energy grant for the project was later rescinded, further undermining its economics. Ts2 Tech
Instead of pushing ahead, Exxon is:
- Pausing capital‑heavy projects where returns are unclear
- Pursuing alternative technologies such as methane pyrolysis, which could produce hydrogen while generating solid carbon instead of CO₂, in partnership with BASF. Ts2 Tech
Investor takeaway: Exxon’s low‑carbon strategy is tactically cautious – selective deployment of capital rather than an aggressive “at any cost” pivot. That’s appealing to value and income investors but may frustrate ESG‑focused shareholders.
2.5 Climate disclosure litigation in California
Regulatory risk is also part of the late‑2025 story:
- Exxon has joined a coalition of companies challenging California’s SB 253 and SB 261 climate‑disclosure laws, which would require large firms doing business in the state to report full value‑chain emissions and climate‑related financial risks. Ts2 Tech
The lawsuit is still in early stages, but it underscores:
- The growing legal complexity around climate disclosure
- The reputational and compliance costs that large emitters may face in key markets like California and the EU Ts2 Tech
For now, the case is unlikely to move the share price on its own, but it adds to the longer‑term transition overhang.
2.6 Insider activity: RSU tax withholding, not open‑market selling
On the insider front, a recent Form 4 filing generated headlines but doesn’t signal bearish behavior:
- Exxon’s VP – Controller and Tax reported that 4,543 shares were withheld by the company at $115.63 per share on November 30, 2025 to cover taxes on vested restricted stock units. [14]
- Crucially, no shares were sold on the open market; this is routine equity‑compensation housekeeping. The executive still holds more than 308,000 shares directly plus nearly 16,000 shares indirectly through a savings plan. [15]
Investors generally treat such withholding transactions as neutral, not as a sign of insider pessimism.
3. Fundamentals: Q3 2025 Earnings, Cash Flow and Dividend
Exxon’s third‑quarter 2025 earnings release on October 31 remains the financial anchor for current valuations. [16]
3.1 Earnings and cash flow
For Q3 2025, Exxon reported:
- Net income:$7.5 billion
- EPS (GAAP):$1.76 per diluted share
- Operating cash flow:$14.8 billion
- Free cash flow:$6.3 billion
- Shareholder distributions:$9.4 billion (about $4.2B in dividends, $5.1B in share repurchases) [17]
Year‑to‑date through Q3:
- Earnings:$22.3 billion, down from $26.1 billion a year earlier, mainly due to lower crude prices, weaker chemical margins and higher depreciation. [18]
- Operating cash flow:$39.3 billion
- Free cash flow:$20.6 billion
- Shareholder distributions:$27.8 billion, including $12.9B in dividends and $14.9B in buybacks. [19]
Despite softer commodity prices versus 2022–23 peaks, Exxon continues to generate strong mid‑cycle cash flow, supported by low‑cost production and aggressive cost cutting.
3.2 Segment performance and growth projects
Key takeaways from Exxon’s segment breakdown: [20]
- Upstream:
- Year‑to‑date earnings of $17.8 billion, only modestly below last year despite weaker crude realizations.
- Net production around 4.7 million barrels of oil‑equivalent per day, with record volumes in both Guyana (over 700,000 boe/d) and the Permian Basin (nearly 1.7 million boe/d).
- The Yellowtail project in Guyana came online four months early, adding up to 250,000 boe/d, and the company sanctioned the Hammerhead project for additional volumes by 2029.
- Energy Products (refining):
- Year‑to‑date earnings of $4.0 billion, up versus 2024 despite weaker margins, helped by record refinery throughput and cost savings.
- Chemical Products:
- Year‑to‑date earnings of $1.1 billion, down sharply due to global overcapacity and soft margins, partially offset by record high‑value product sales.
Exxon has also laid out a five‑year plan to boost overall oil and gas output by roughly 18% by 2030, supported by Guyana, the Permian and LNG investments, while targeting more than $18 billion in structural cost savings versus 2019. [21]
3.3 Dividend hike and share repurchases
Income investors have plenty to like:
- The quarterly dividend was raised from $0.99 to $1.03 per share for Q4 2025 – a 4% increase – payable on December 10, 2025 to shareholders of record on November 14. [22]
- This extends Exxon’s streak of 43 consecutive years of annual dividend per‑share growth. [23]
- Management is on pace to complete about $20 billion in share repurchases for 2025, after already buying back roughly 40% of the shares issued for the Pioneer Natural Resources acquisition. [24]
At current prices, the 3.5% dividend yield, plus modest EPS growth and ongoing buybacks, offers a high‑single‑digit “total return engine” if operations continue to run smoothly.
4. Analyst Forecasts and Price Targets for Exxon Mobil Stock
Even after a strong five‑year run (the stock has risen more than 200% over that span), Wall Street remains broadly positive on Exxon Mobil heading into 2026.
4.1 Consensus ratings
Across major data providers, XOM carries a Buy / Moderate Buy / Outperform consensus:
- MarketBeat: “Moderate Buy” based on 20 analyst ratings, split roughly between Holds and Buys, with a consensus rating score in the “Moderate Buy” band. [25]
- StockAnalysis: “Buy” consensus from 16 analysts. [26]
- GuruFocus: Average brokerage recommendation 2.3 on a 1–5 scale (1 = Strong Buy, 5 = Sell), indicating “Outperform”. [27]
- MarketWatch: Average recommendation “Overweight” from 31 ratings. [28]
4.2 12‑month price targets
Price‑target data clusters tightly around the high $120s to low $130s:
- MarketBeat:
- Average target:$128.67
- Range:$105 – $156
- Implied upside: about 9% from prices around the mid‑$117s. [29]
- StockAnalysis:
- Average target:$129.5
- Range:$105 – $156
- Implied upside: around 10% over the next 12 months. [30]
- TipRanks:
- Average target:$131.08 from 15 analysts
- Range:$115 – $156
- Implied upside: roughly 13% from a reference price near $115.9. [31]
- GuruFocus:
- Average Street target:$129.45, high $156, low $105, implying about 10–11% upside from ~$117. [32]
Meanwhile, consensus EPS estimates:
- 2025 EPS: around $6.9–7.0
- 2026 EPS: around $7.4–7.5 [33]
Taken together, the Street sees modest earnings growth and mid‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit price appreciation on top of a 3.5% dividend yield – a solid, if not explosive, total‑return profile.
5. Valuation: Quality at a Mid‑Teens Multiple
Is Exxon Mobil stock still attractive after a multi‑year rally?
5.1 Relative and absolute multiples
Recent snapshots show:
- Trailing P/E: about 16–17x
- Price‑to‑sales: around 1.5–1.6x. Ts2 Tech+1
- Price‑to‑book: roughly 1.9x. Ts2 Tech
- Balance sheet: very low financial leverage, with debt‑to‑equity around 0.12–0.16, and strong interest coverage, according to recent institutional and research reports. [36]
For context, the S&P 500 trades on a trailing P/E near 28–31x, depending on the methodology. [37] So Exxon is at a discount to the broad market, but a premium to many integrated oil peers.
5.2 Is XOM undervalued?
There’s a genuine debate:
- Bullish valuation case:
- Simply Wall St’s “Fair Ratio” model suggests that, based on its growth outlook, margins, risk profile and industry positioning, Exxon’s earnings could justify a much higher multiple (around 24x), implying meaningful undervaluation today. [38]
- Many long‑term narratives on that platform see fair value in a range from roughly $128 to $174 per share, depending on assumptions about oil prices, Guyana, low‑carbon returns and capital allocation. [39]
- Skeptical view:
- GuruFocus and other analysts note that Exxon’s P/E, P/S and P/B are near multi‑year highs, reflecting a high level of optimism at a time when Brent crude is in the low $60s, not in a super‑cycle. Ts2 Tech+1
- Quantitative models that adjust for cyclicality often flag XOM as “fairly valued to slightly expensive” on a mid‑cycle basis. [40]
In practice, Exxon Mobil appears to be priced as a high‑quality, low‑risk oil major – not dirt cheap, but not bubble‑rich either.
6. Macro Backdrop: 2026 Oil Glut Fears vs Exxon’s Low‑Cost Advantage
Much of the medium‑term thesis for Exxon hinges on where oil prices go in 2026–2027.
6.1 Wall Street sees a 2026 oil surplus
Recent research paints a picture of potential oversupply:
- A Reuters poll summarized by OilPrice.com projects WTI averaging about $59 per barrel and Brent about $62.23 in 2026, down from prior forecasts. [41]
- Some banks, including Goldman Sachs, are more bearish, seeing WTI averaging closer to $53 in 2026, with the market only rebalancing in 2027 after a final supply wave. [42]
- RSM’s oil‑and‑gas outlook notes that major independent forecasters now expect 2026 WTI in the low‑to‑mid $50s, while many U.S. producers still budget off assumptions closer to $64. [43]
- Forecasts imply a surplus of 2.1–4 million barrels per day at times in 2026, even after OPEC+ adjusts its production plans. [44]
In short: the consensus has shifted from fears of scarcity to concerns about too much oil.
6.2 Why Exxon may be better positioned than peers
This is where Exxon’s portfolio helps:
- The company’s Guyana and Permian projects are among the lowest‑cost barrels globally, giving Exxon more room to generate attractive returns even at $50–60 WTI. [45]
- Exxon’s five‑year plan emphasizes high‑return projects and structural cost cuts, targeting more than $18 billion in cumulative savings by 2030. [46]
- A strong balance sheet – with net‑debt‑to‑capital under 10% and a large cash buffer – gives Exxon flexibility to keep funding both capex and shareholder returns through the cycle. [47]
If oil prices indeed drift into the mid‑$50s by 2026, the risk is that valuation multiples compress across the sector. But within that scenario, Exxon is arguably among the best‑insulated majors, thanks to its scale, asset quality and disciplined capital allocation.
7. Bull vs. Bear Case for Exxon Mobil Stock Right Now
7.1 Bull case: Why long‑term investors like XOM
Supporters of Exxon Mobil stock point to several pillars:
- Reliable income and capital returns
- Low‑cost growth engine
- Strong balance sheet and cost discipline
- Net‑debt‑to‑capital below 10%; structural cost savings above $14B since 2019. [51]
- Willingness to pause low‑carbon projects (like Baytown hydrogen) when returns don’t pencil out. Ts2 Tech+1
- Analyst and institutional support
7.2 Bear case: Why some investors are cautious
Skeptics focus on a different set of points:
- Valuation is no longer “dirt cheap”
- XOM trades near multi‑year highs in P/E, P/S and P/B terms. Ts2 Tech+1
- If oil falls into the low‑$50s with an extended glut, multiples across the sector may compress. [54]
- Energy‑transition and regulatory risk
- The Baytown hydrogen pause hints at policy and demand uncertainty in low‑carbon projects. Ts2 Tech+1
- Climate‑disclosure lawsuits and evolving EU rules may raise long‑term compliance costs. Ts2 Tech
- Cyclical earnings sensitivity
- While Exxon’s assets are low cost, its earnings are still heavily tied to oil and gas prices, which could face downward pressure into 2026. [55]
- Execution risk on mega‑projects and M&A
- Large projects like Yellowtail, Hammerhead, Golden Pass LNG and any potential West Qurna 2 acquisition must be delivered on time and on budget to justify their price tags. [56]
8. What to Watch Next for Exxon Mobil Stock
Looking beyond today’s price quote, investors in XOM will be monitoring several near‑term catalysts:
- Corporate plan update and capital‑allocation guidance
- Exxon’s December corporate‑plan update is expected to provide new detail on capex through 2030, low‑carbon spending, and share‑repurchase plans. Ts2 Tech
- Any formal move on West Qurna 2
- Confirmation of a deal, pricing, and financing will determine whether the Iraqi expansion is seen as value‑accretive or too risky. Ts2 Tech
- Q4 2025 earnings (early 2026)
- Street expectations call for EPS roughly in the $1.6–1.7 range; investors will watch whether Exxon can sustain strong operating cash flows in a mid‑$60s Brent environment. Ts2 Tech+1
- Oil‑price trajectory into 2026
- Confirmation (or not) of a global surplus will shape sector sentiment and valuation multiples. [57]
- Evolution of Exxon’s low‑carbon portfolio
- Progress on alternative hydrogen pathways, carbon capture, and other lower‑carbon businesses will influence how investors price Exxon’s long‑term relevance in a decarbonizing world. Ts2 Tech+1
9. Bottom Line: Is Exxon Mobil Stock a Buy, Hold or Sell on December 3, 2025?
As of December 3, 2025, Exxon Mobil stock trades near its 52‑week highs, with:
- A 3.5% dividend yield and a 43‑year dividend‑growth streak
- Strong mid‑cycle cash generation backed by low‑cost barrels in Guyana and the Permian
- A conservative balance sheet and massive buyback program
- A Street consensus that sees high‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit upside over the next 12 months, plus dividends [58]
Against that, the stock is no longer bargain‑basement:
- Multiples are near the upper end of their historical range for an oil major. [59]
- The global oil market may be heading into a 2026 surplus, which could cap both earnings and multiples for the sector. [60]
For income‑oriented, long‑term investors who are comfortable with commodity cycles, Exxon Mobil still screens as a high‑quality, cash‑rich integrated oil major with a dependable dividend and measured growth prospects.
For short‑term traders or deep‑value hunters, the current setup looks more like a “quality at a reasonable price” story than a screaming bargain, especially if 2026 oil prices undershoot company expectations.
Either way, XOM remains one of the central bellwethers of the global energy market, and December’s mix of new price targets, West Qurna headlines, hydrogen pivots and macro oil‑price forecasts ensures it will stay firmly on Wall Street’s radar.
References
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