Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) Share Price Near $3 as Buyback, Nasdaq Plans and US Inquiry Shape 2026 Outlook

Zip Co Ltd (ASX: ZIP) has gone from near‑write‑off to one of the most closely watched growth stocks on the ASX. As of 4 December 2025, the Zip Co share price is hovering around A$3.00, down sharply from recent highs but still reflecting a dramatic multi‑year turnaround in the business.

Below is a comprehensive look at the current Zip Co share price, FY25 results, Q1 FY26 momentum, buyback, Nasdaq dual‑listing plans, regulatory inquiries and 2026 forecasts – all based on the latest information available as at 4 December 2025.

This article is general information only and not financial advice.

Zip Co share price today (4 December 2025)

Real‑time and end‑of‑day data from major market platforms show Zip Co Ltd trading just under the A$3 mark:

Closing price (4 December 2025): A$2.96
Intraday range (4 December): A$2.96–A$3.09
5‑day context: Shares fell from A$3.40 on 28 November to A$2.95–A$2.96 by 2–4 December, including a single‑day drop of more than 10% on 2 December. ^[1]
52‑week range: Approximately A$1.09–A$4.93, underscoring how volatile Zip remains. ^[2]

Data compiled by Intelligent Investor show that after a spectacular 2024 rally of more than 300%, Zip’s 2025 year‑to‑date performance has turned modestly negative, largely because of the recent pullback from the October–November highs. ^[3]

A separate analysis from The Bull noted that by mid‑November the stock had shed around 28–30% in a month, with traders watching support around A$3.24 as selling pressure intensified. ^[4]

In short: Zip Co is still a multi‑bagger versus its 2023 lows, but the last few weeks have been rough.

From survival mode to scale: FY25 results

Zip’s fundamentals in FY25 are very different to the “cash‑burn BNPL” narrative of 2022–23.

For the year ended 30 June 2025, Zip reported: ^[5]

Total income: A$1,081.1m, up 23.5% year on year
Transaction volume (TTV): A$13.1bn, up 30.3%
Cash EBTDA: A$170.3m, up 147% versus FY24
Operating margin (cash EBTDA / income):15.8%, almost double FY24’s 7.9%
Net bad debts: 1.5% of TTV (improved from 1.7% in FY24)
Active customers: 6.3m (+4.6%)
Merchants: 85.5k (+7.9%)

Management highlighted several key points:

The United States has become the primary earnings engine, now representing roughly 71% of group TTV. ^[6]
Profitability is no longer a one‑off; the company is consistently generating positive cash earnings. ^[7]
Credit quality remains under control despite rapid growth, with bad debts inside management’s target range. ^[8]

This performance allowed Zip to repay all corporate debt, strengthen its balance sheet and pivot towards returning capital to shareholders, a stark contrast with peers that are still focused on survival. ^[9]

Q1 FY26: record quarter and upgraded US growth guidance

Momentum carried into the first quarter of FY26 (to 30 September 2025). According to the Q1 update and AGM commentary, Zip delivered: ^[10]

Record quarterly cash EBTDA: A$62.8m, up about 98% vs Q1 FY25
TTV: A$3.9bn, up 38.7%
Total income: ~A$321.5m, up 32.8%
Operating margin: around 19.5% (vs 13.1% a year earlier)
Transactions: 26m, up 21.9%
Active customers: 6.4m (+5.3%)
Merchants: ~87,500 (+9.1%)
Net bad debts: ~1.6% of TTV, flat year on year

Growth in the US business was particularly strong, with TTV and revenue rising 47.2% and 51.2% in USD terms, and U.S. active customers up roughly 12%. ^[11]

On the back of this performance, Zip:

Reaffirmed and then upgraded parts of its FY26 guidance, including expectations for US TTV growth above 40% and group operating margins in the 16–19% range. ^[12]
Signalled that cash EBTDA as a percentage of TTV should exceed 1.3% in FY26, reflecting strong operating leverage. ^[13]

The market initially loved it: the Q1 release helped drive Zip to that A$4.93 52‑week high in late October. Ts2 Tech+1

Capital management: A$100m buyback and cheaper funding

On‑market share buyback

In April 2025, Zip launched an on‑market share buyback of up to A$50m, citing balance‑sheet strength and confidence in its long‑term prospects. The announcement triggered an immediate share price spike as investors welcomed the signal. Ts2 Tech+1

On 20 October 2025, alongside its Q1 FY26 update, Zip doubled the program to A$100m. By around that time the company had bought back roughly 17.8m shares for A$43.4m. ^[14]

The latest Appendix 3C update on 26 November 2025 shows: ^[15]

Total shares repurchased: 29.2m
Total consideration: ~A$82.7m
Remaining capacity: ~70.5m shares under the expanded program
Program window: 23 April 2025 to 23 April 2026
Maximum program size: 100m shares (on‑market)

For a BNPL player, a large, active buyback is notable: many sector peers are still focused on cutting costs and raising capital, not shrinking their share count.

Cheaper funding and extra liquidity

A funding and capital update in early November detailed further steps to lower Zip’s cost of capital and extend its growth runway: Ts2 Tech+1

A new US$283.4m US warehouse facility with a two‑year term.
A new A$400m Australian note priced at a margin of about 1.37%, significantly below equivalent deals in 2024.
Combined, these deals lifted undrawn receivables‑funding capacity to roughly US$348m in the US and A$344m in ANZ.

Management has emphasised that lower funding margins and extended tenors should support both future growth and profitability as Zip scales its loan book. ^[16]

Strategy and growth drivers: Nasdaq ambitions, product innovation and partnerships

Potential Nasdaq dual listing

Zip has spent much of 2025 openly exploring a dual listing on the Nasdaq, while retaining its primary ASX listing. In the FY25 results, management framed a US listing as a way to align capital markets exposure with the company’s increasingly US‑centric earnings mix. ^[17]

By November 2025, the process stepped up a gear, with filings showing that Zip had submitted a confidential draft registration statement to the US Securities and Exchange Commission for a potential listing. ^[18]

The AGM reiterated that any dual listing remains subject to Board approval, US regulatory clearance and market conditions, but the signal to investors is clear: Zip wants to be valued alongside global fintech peers, not just domestic small caps. ^[19]

Product innovation

Zip’s growth strategy in both FY25 and FY26 is heavily product‑led: ^[20]

US “Pay‑in‑Z” platform:
- Scaling Pay‑in‑8 instalments, which reached ~18–20% of US TTV by late FY25.
- Rolling out a shorter‑duration Pay‑in‑2 product in FY26 to support small, everyday purchases like groceries and utilities.
ANZ portfolio:
- Expansion of Zip Plus, a higher‑engagement credit product whose customers transact far more often than standard Zip Pay users.
- Launch of a Zip Personal Loan product in early 2025, targeting mid‑ticket items such as vehicles, travel and renovations.

Management also highlighted increasing use of AI tools across risk, operations and customer experience, as well as a dedicated innovation group (“Fearless Frontiers”) exploring new profit pools such as AI‑driven cash‑flow management. ^[21]

Partnerships and ecosystem

Several recent announcements underline Zip’s push to embed itself more deeply into major payments and marketing ecosystems:

Stripe integration (US): An expanded partnership makes Zip available across Stripe’s optimised checkout interfaces (Elements, Checkout, Payment Links), with no‑code activation from the Stripe Dashboard. Merchants receive full payment upfront while Zip assumes credit risk, potentially lifting conversion and average order value. ^[22]
Nift partnership: In the US, Zip now offers customers AI‑driven “thank‑you” gift offers after purchases via Nift’s marketing platform, aimed at increasing engagement and ancillary revenue. ^[23]
Opportunity Knocks sponsorship: Zip is funding Season 3 of the PBS personal finance series Opportunity Knocks and a national “Live the Show” tour, reinforcing its financial‑wellbeing brand positioning ahead of the 2026 premiere. ^[24]
Google and Xero integrations: In ANZ, Zip has rolled out features with Google Wallet and Chrome Autofill, and integrated with Xero invoicing (via Stripe) to bring flexible payments directly into SME workflows. ^[25]

These moves aim to embed Zip at checkout, in apps and in everyday money management, rather than relying solely on direct‑to‑consumer marketing.

Regulatory spotlight: US state attorneys general and global BNPL rules

Regulation is one of the biggest swing factors for any buy now, pay later stock.

In early December, news emerged that US state attorneys general had sent inquiry letters to Zip and peers, seeking detailed information about BNPL practices. Zip has said it is assessing a voluntary request after receiving the inquiry letter, and a Jefferies note reported by MarketScreener suggested the inquiry is expected to have “minimal impact” on Zip’s operations. ^[26]

TS2 and other outlets stress that this is part of a broader global regulatory trend:

Authorities increasingly want BNPL to look and feel more like traditional credit, with stricter rules on affordability, disclosure and fees. Ts2 Tech
In Australia, Zip has already adapted, with AGM disclosures confirming that all of its products are now regulated under the National Consumer Credit Protection Act as the BNPL law reforms progress. ^[27]
In the US, Zip has chosen to operate in line with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s interpretive BNPL guidance, even after that rule was rescinded, signalling a conservative stance on compliance. ^[28]

So far, the market seems to view regulatory risk as important but manageable, especially given Zip’s focus on non‑discretionary categories and relatively low bad debt ratios. But any escalation – such as fee caps, tougher underwriting rules or enforcement actions – could pressure margins and growth.

Analyst forecasts and valuation: upside meets high expectations

Recent aggregation of broker targets and data‑provider estimates paints a broadly bullish, but not unanimous, picture for Zip Co stock: Ts2 Tech+1

TradingView: Average 12‑month target around A$5.36 (range ~A$4.50–6.20).
Moomoo: Average target ~A$5.10 with a similar range.
Fintel / Nasdaq: Average target roughly A$5.43, with a current range around A$4.54–6.51.
TipRanks: Latest individual rating cited as Buy with a A$5.40 target.

When TS2 ran these numbers on 1 December 2025, with Zip trading near A$3.37, the consensus band of A$5.1–5.4 implied roughly 50–60% upside if those forecasts prove accurate. Ts2 Tech

Relative to a current share price near A$3.00, the same target range implies significantly more potential upside – but only if Zip hits or beats those growth and profitability assumptions.

On valuation metrics, data compiled from market analytics platforms suggest: Ts2 Tech+1

Trailing P/E: ~55–56x
Forward P/E: High‑30s
Beta: Above 3, indicating much higher volatility than the broader ASX.

That combination – high growth, high volatility, high multiple – makes Zip a classic high‑beta growth stock rather than a steady compounder.

Technical signals: short‑term caution after a big run

While fundamental analysts remain mostly positive, short‑term technical models have turned more cautious since the late‑November sell‑off.

A recent technical review from StockInvest categorised Zip as a “sell candidate” from 28 November, noting that the stock sits in the upper part of a very wide, falling short‑term trend – a typical zone for profit‑taking. ^[29]
StockInvest’s model projects a possible 33% decline over the next three months, with a 90% confidence interval placing the share price between roughly A$1.75 and A$2.25 if current conditions persist. Ts2 Tech
The service also flags Zip as “high risk” due to average daily volatility of around 4–5% and wide Bollinger Bands. Ts2 Tech

The takeaway: even if the long‑term story is improving, Zip’s share price can still swing violently over short periods, especially after a multi‑hundred‑percent move in under two years.

Market sentiment: bulls vs bears in December 2025

Bullish narrative

Supporters of Zip Co in late 2025 typically point to: Ts2 Tech+2Zip Co+2

Profitable growth at scale: Cash EBTDA has inflected strongly positive and margins are still expanding.
US growth engine: U.S. TTV and revenue growth above 40–50% year on year, with rising customer numbers and engagement.
Improving balance sheet: No corporate debt, cheaper funding, expanded warehouse capacity and a large on‑market buyback.
Strategic optionality: Potential Nasdaq dual listing, deepening Stripe and Google integrations, and AI‑driven product innovation.
Brand and engagement: Strong Net Promoter Scores in both US and ANZ, plus brand‑building partnerships such as Opportunity Knocks. ^[30]

Bearish and cautious views

Skeptics, including some mainstream commentators, highlight several risk factors: Ts2 Tech+2The Bull+2

Rich valuation: High P/E multiples leave little room for disappointment on growth, margins or credit quality.
Extreme volatility: With beta above 3 and frequent double‑digit daily swings, Zip is unsuitable for investors who can’t tolerate sharp drawdowns.
Regulatory uncertainty: US state‑level inquiries and emerging global BNPL rules could drive higher compliance costs and slower growth.
Macro sensitivity: BNPL performance is tightly linked to consumer health; any deterioration in employment or real wages could push arrears higher.
Intense competition: Zip competes with Afterpay/Block, Klarna, Affirm, banks and card schemes, all chasing similar customers and merchants.

Some outlets have gone as far as arguing that, after the big rally, other tech names like Xero or WiseTech may offer more attractive risk‑reward into 2026, even while acknowledging Zip’s turnaround. ^[31]

Holiday trading and Black Friday / Cyber Monday data

One of the freshest data points for Zip’s operational momentum is the Black Friday–Cyber Monday (BFCM) 2025 weekend:

Zip processed approximately 1.6 million transactions at over 280,000 locations across the Group during the BFCM period. ^[32]
In the US, customers continued to use Zip mainly for non‑discretionary categories such as groceries, online marketplaces and fuel, with Millennials and Gen Z driving most of the volume. ^[33]
In ANZ, Zip’s digital Visa card saw increased usage across everyday spend categories, with in‑store purchases making up almost half of transactions. ^[34]

These figures support management’s narrative that Zip is increasingly embedded in everyday spending, not just big one‑off discretionary purchases – a potentially more resilient base if the economic cycle turns.

Key things for investors to watch after 4 December 2025

As of 4 December 2025, the Zip Co investment case hinges on several moving parts:

Outcome of US state attorney general inquiries
- The scope, tone and any follow‑up actions from regulators could materially affect BNPL economics in the US. ^[35]
Progress toward a Nasdaq dual listing
- A successful US listing could broaden the shareholder base and potentially support a higher long‑term valuation multiple – but delays, higher‑than‑expected costs or lukewarm demand would likely disappoint the market. ^[36]
Execution on the A$100m buyback
- The pace and price of buybacks will influence earnings per share and provide insight into how management views intrinsic value. ^[37]
Sustainability of margins and credit quality
- Investors will closely track whether operating margins can hold near the high‑teens and whether net bad debts remain around 1.5–1.6% of TTV as the book grows. ^[38]
Holiday‑season trading updates
- Further detail on BFCM and Christmas trading – especially in the US – will be a key indicator of how durable Zip’s growth really is heading into FY26. ^[39]

Bottom line: where Zip Co Ltd stands on 4 December 2025

Putting all the pieces together, Zip Co Ltd in early December 2025 is:

A profitable, rapidly growing fintech with strong US momentum and improving capital structure. ^[40]
A high‑beta, high‑valuation stock that can move 5–10% in a single session, up or down. ^[41]
A major regulatory and macro story, given its exposure to consumer credit conditions and evolving BNPL rules. Ts2 Tech+2Market Index+2
A potential Nasdaq candidate with deepening global partnerships and a sizeable share buyback underway. ^[42]

References

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