The German stock market started Thursday in a distinctly risk‑on mood. By late morning in Frankfurt, the DAX 40 was up roughly 0.7–0.8% around 23,850–23,880 points, marking its strongest level in several sessions but once again stalling just below the psychologically important 24,000 barrier. [1]
Analysts pointed to a combination of renewed optimism about imminent U.S. interest‑rate cuts and a powerful re‑rating of European auto stocks as the main drivers of today’s move. [2]
Key takeaways
- DAX higher, but capped: The DAX trades up around 0.8% near 23,900 points, yet remains locked below 24,000 for a third consecutive week. [3]
- Broad-based advance: MDAX, TecDAX and SDAX all opened firmly in positive territory, confirming strong breadth in German equities. [4]
- Autos in the spotlight: A bullish sector call from Bank of America on European carmakers sends Mercedes‑Benz, Porsche SE and peers sharply higher, making autos the day’s standout performers. [5]
- Fresh corporate news: Aurubis lifts its dividend on the back of robust cash flow, tonies wins promotion to the SDAX, and Evotec rises on the launch of a Bayer Phase 2 trial. [6]
- Technical picture: Multiple studies see a constructive, but fragile, uptrend in the DAX, with 23,830–24,000 flagged as the decisive breakout zone. [7]
DAX today: risk‑on tone, but the 24,000 wall holds
Solid leads from Wall Street and Asia set the tone in early Xetra trading. The Dow Jones Industrial had edged closer to its November record high overnight, while the Nikkei in Tokyo posted strong gains, encouraging European investors to add risk. [8]
At the opening bell in Frankfurt, the DAX rose around 0.6–0.7% to roughly 23,845–23,860 points. [9] By late morning, as auto and energy names extended their advance, the index was up about 0.8% at 23,877 points. [10]
Despite the rebound, the blue‑chip benchmark has now spent roughly three weeks oscillating just below 24,000, turning that level into a clear line in the sand for traders. [11]
Other key indices also participated in the move:
- MDAX (mid caps): up about 0.7–0.8% near 29,550–29,570 points. [12]
- Euro Stoxx 50: the eurozone blue‑chip index gained roughly half a percent, in line with broader European markets. [13]
- TecDAX: technology shares traded about 0.7–0.9% higher around 3,580–3,590 points. [14]
- SDAX (small caps): up roughly 0.8% at around 16,709 points shortly after the open. [15]
In short: the German stock market today is firmly in the green, but the DAX is still boxed in just below 24,000.
Why German stocks are rising: Fed hopes and a powerful auto rebound
Fed expectations: “bad data is good news”
Weak U.S. macro data has paradoxically been a tailwind for equities this week. A softer‑than‑expected private payrolls report and downward revisions to industrial production have strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at its meeting next week. [16]
Strategists describe the current environment in blunt terms: disappointing U.S. data is “good” for risk assets insofar as it nudges the Fed toward easing. Lower U.S. Treasury yields and a softer dollar have supported global equities, including the DAX. [17]
Autos lead the charge after Bank of America sector upgrade
The strongest impulse for German stocks today clearly comes from the automotive sector.
- Bank of America upgraded its stance on European carmakers and issued a “Buy” rating on Porsche SE, arguing that fears of a “total disruption” from aggressive emissions rules and electrification were overdone and that policymakers are likely to pursue more gradual, pragmatic targets. [18]
- The bank also highlighted expected regulatory relief, a softening trajectory for future emissions policy and a postponement of full combustion‑engine bans beyond 2040, helping sentiment across the sector. [19]
On the DAX, this translated into eye‑catching moves:
- Porsche SE shares jumped roughly 5% at times, putting them at the top of the blue‑chip index. [20]
- Mercedes‑Benz Group gained about 3–4% after Bank of America turned more constructive on the stock. [21]
- Other German carmakers, including Volkswagen and BMW, also traded significantly higher, contributing a large share of the DAX’s point gains. [22]
Analyst upgrades turbo‑charge blue chips
Beyond autos, a flurry of broker rating changes helped fuel the positive tone:
- Siemens Energy rose around 1.5–2.6% after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to Overweight. [23]
- Commerzbank advanced roughly 1.7–2% after Goldman Sachs dropped its Sell recommendation and moved to a more neutral stance. [24]
- SAP gained about 1–2% on the back of a positive analyst note from JPMorgan. [25]
Together with autos, these upgrades gave the DAX a broad, analyst‑driven push higher.
Mid caps, tech and small caps: rally with a structural twist
While the DAX attracts most of the headlines, breadth across the German market is conspicuously strong today.
MDAX: new faces are coming
The MDAX, home to medium‑sized German companies, not only trades higher but is also digesting important index reshuffles.
Deutsche Börse’s index subsidiary ISS STOXX announced that, as of 22 December 2025: [26]
- TKMS, the naval shipbuilder spun off from Thyssenkrupp,
- and Aumovio, the recently listed automotive supplier carved out of Continental,
will both join the MDAX. They will replace Gerresheimer and HelloFresh, which are set to drop into the SDAX. [27]
The changes underscore a broader theme in German equities: newly listed industrial and defence‑adjacent names are being pulled into the market mainstream, while some pandemic‑era winners such as food‑delivery platforms lose index prominence.
SDAX: tonies promoted, small caps in demand
The SDAX opened around 0.8% higher at roughly 16,709 points, continuing a recent upswing in small caps. [28] Several structural changes are boosting its profile:
- tonies SE, the creator of the Toniebox children’s audio platform, will join the SDAX on December 22, recognised as one of the largest and most liquid small caps on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange after years of revenue growth above 30% annually. [29]
- Orthopaedics specialist Ottobock also enters the SDAX, alongside Verbio and software group PSI, while names such as Thyssenkrupp Nucera, Amadeus Fire, Formycon, Stratec, ProCredit and LPKF exit the index. [30]
These shifts reflect investors’ growing appetite for growth and innovation themes – from green fuels to healthtech and specialised software – within Germany’s small‑cap universe.
TecDAX and biotech headlines
The TecDAX trades roughly 0.8% higher, supported by positive company‑specific news in the healthcare and biotech complex. [31]
A notable headline comes from Evotec, which sits in both the TecDAX and SDAX:
- Partner Bayer has started a Phase 2 clinical trial for a monoclonal antibody (BAY 3401016) targeting Semaphorin‑3A as a potential treatment for Alport syndrome, a rare genetic kidney disease. [32]
- Evotec is eligible for a milestone payment once the first patient is dosed, expected in early 2026, and stands to receive further milestones and tiered royalties if the program advances successfully. [33]
The announcement reinforces Germany’s profile as a hub for specialised biotech R&D and adds a fundamental driver to TecDAX sentiment today.
Corporate stories moving German stocks
Aurubis: dividend uplift and long‑term growth strategy
Metals group Aurubis is one of the more closely watched names on the German market today after releasing its 2024/25 annual results before the open. [34]
Key points from the report:
- Operating EBT came in at €355 million, within the guided range and only moderately below last year’s €413 million.
- EBITDA slipped slightly to €589 million from €622 million, but net cash flow jumped nearly 30% to €677 million, the highest in three years.
- Management proposed raising the dividend to €1.60 per share (from €1.50), increasing the payout ratio to about 27% of operating net income. [35]
Aurubis also reaffirmed its “Performance 2030” strategy, highlighting heavy investment in multimetal recycling capacity in Europe and North America and forecasting operating EBT of €300–400 million and a balanced free cash flow (before dividend) for fiscal 2025/26. [36]
The market response has been positive: Aurubis shares hit a fresh record high in morning trade, adding roughly 3% and extending an already strong run in 2025. [37]
tonies: SDAX promotion crowns rapid growth
For tonies, SDAX inclusion is more than a badge of honour. It marks the company’s transition from niche disruptor to mainstream small‑cap leader:
- tonies’ market capitalisation and trading liquidity have risen sufficiently to earn a place among the 70 most important small caps on the German market. [38]
- The company reported revenue growth of around one‑third year‑on‑year and continues to expand internationally, with North America now its biggest market and the DACH region serving as a profitable blueprint for further roll‑outs. [39]
Index inclusion typically boosts visibility and index‑fund demand, factors that small‑cap specialists expect to support the stock into 2026.
Rheinmetall: still a drag, despite strong fundamentals
Defence contractor Rheinmetall remains an important talking point for German investors, even if it is not among today’s top gainers:
- The stock trades roughly 25% below its 2025 high, despite reporting double‑digit growth in revenue and operating earnings and confirming guidance for 25–30% sales growth this year with an operating margin near 15.5%. [40]
- Analysts attribute the pullback to positioning and valuation concerns, as well as delays in German defence procurement, rather than a sudden deterioration in fundamentals. [41]
For the DAX overall, Rheinmetall’s consolidation acts as a counterweight to the strength in autos, but today’s broad advance leaves the index higher on balance.
What technical analysts are saying about the DAX
Technical research houses and broker desks have published an unusually dense cluster of DAX commentaries dated 4 December 2025, and they broadly agree on one thing: the 24,000 zone is crucial.
Short‑term view: bullish bias, sideways‑to‑up trading
A daily DAX note from XTB characterises the short‑term chart as “bullish”, with the index trading above its 20‑hour moving average and supported by the 50‑hour line. Their base case for today is a sideways‑to‑higher move within a projected range roughly between 23,650 and 23,950 points, with a 65% probability assigned to the bullish scenario. [42]
Key short‑term markers in that analysis include:
- Upside targets in the 23,915–23,975 region if buyers maintain control.
- Downside risk towards 23,150–23,300 on a break of key moving averages. [43]
Medium‑term view: constructive, but not out of the woods
A detailed study from DZ Bank, distributed via Onvista, describes the DAX as being in a long‑term uptrend, confirmed by an all‑time high in early October. After a consolidation down to a multi‑month low on 21 November, the index stabilised at the lower Bollinger band and has since formed higher lows. [44]
The bank highlights three fresh buy signals:
- Price has retaken the 200‑day moving average.
- Price has also moved back above the 20‑day moving average.
- The Slow Stochastic oscillator has generated a bullish crossover. [45]
From this perspective:
- The late‑November high at 23,881 points is seen as the first key resistance.
- A sustained break above that level could open the way toward the 50‑day moving average and then the 24,445 area, a local high from mid‑November.
- On the downside, 23,641 and 23,426 are flagged as important supports; a drop below 23,426 would invalidate the bullish scenario. [46]
Independent market strategists: “Hopp oder Top” around 24,000
A separate comment on Finanzmarktwelt, aptly titled “Hopp oder Top! DAX vor entscheidenden Hürden – kommt jetzt der Ausbruch?”, emphasises how delicate the situation is: [47]
- The DAX closed Wednesday at 23,693, down 0.1%, after weak U.S. data triggered worries about growth even as they boosted rate‑cut hopes.
- The index is stuck beneath the 50‑day moving average near 23,828, with the zone between 23,830 and 23,860 seen as an immediate hurdle.
- Above that, the 23,960–24,000 band is described as a “make‑or‑break” zone: a clean break could extend towards 24,041 and 24,140/150, while repeated failures could send the DAX back towards 23,790/780, 23,691 and the recent low near 23,646. [48]
UBS/4investors: year‑end rally still possible, but 200‑day line must hold
A technical view circulated by UBS and summarised on 4investors points out that the DAX’s 200‑day moving average around 23,500 points has so far acted as a solid floor. Above that, the index is seen as being in a consolidation within an overarching uptrend, with:
- Support zones around 23,684 and 23,512,
- Resistance initially in the 23,800 region and then near 24,000 and 24,250. [49]
The implication: as long as the DAX holds above its 200‑day line, a late‑year push toward – or even slightly through – 24,000 remains a plausible scenario.
Macro backdrop: weak but improving growth expectations for Germany
While today’s price action is driven largely by global rates and sector stories, the macro narrative for Germany remains in the background – and it is cautiously improving.
A new HWWI forecast overview published today shows a striking consensus among major institutions: most expect real German GDP growth of roughly 0.2–0.3% in 2025, followed by a pick‑up to around 1–1.5% in 2026–27. [50]
Examples from that summary:
- HWWI: 0.2% growth in 2025, 1.5% in 2026 and 2027.
- OECD: 0.3% in 2025, 1.0% in 2026, 1.5% in 2027.
- European Commission: 0.2% in 2025, 1.2% in 2026. [51]
While these numbers are hardly spectacular, they mark an improvement from the slight contraction in 2023 and near‑stagnation in 2024 and suggest that corporate earnings may get a modest cyclical tailwind over the medium term rather than facing a deep recession. [52]
That said, analysts repeatedly stress that Germany’s growth profile is fragile, dependent on export demand, energy prices and domestic investment. For equity investors, this translates into a “selective optimism” – supportive of stocks with strong balance sheets and pricing power, but still unforgiving towards structurally challenged names.
Outlook: what to watch next for the DAX and German stocks
With markets now clearly positioned for easier U.S. monetary policy, the near‑term path for the DAX hinges on a few key catalysts:
- Federal Reserve meeting next week
- A dovish tone and a rate cut broadly in line with expectations would likely support a push towards or through 24,000.
- Any hint that the Fed might delay or limit cuts could quickly pressure global risk assets, including German equities. [53]
- U.S. labour data and eurozone indicators
- Weekly jobless claims and upcoming eurozone retail‑sales figures will feed into the debate over whether current optimism is compatible with underlying growth trends. [54]
- Sector rotation and index reshuffles
- Today’s strong move in autos may have legs if Bank of America’s thesis on regulatory relief and earnings resilience gains traction across the market. [55]
- The December 22 index rebalancing – including TKMS and Aumovio entering the MDAX and tonies joining the SDAX – could generate additional flows and volatility in those names and their outgoing counterparts. [56]
- Technical battle around 24,000
- Short‑term traders will continue to focus on the 23,830–24,000 corridor highlighted by multiple analyses. A convincing breakout with rising volumes could unleash a year‑end rally, whereas another failure may cement this range as a medium‑term ceiling and invite profit‑taking towards the 200‑day line. [57]
Bottom line
On 4 December 2025, the German stock market is firmly on the front foot:
- The DAX is higher, breadth is strong across MDAX, TecDAX and SDAX, and leadership from auto and industrial names has returned.
- Corporate news – from Aurubis’ dividend uplift to tonies’ SDAX promotion and Evotec’s pipeline progress – reinforces the message that Germany’s listed companies continue to adapt and invest despite a sluggish macro backdrop.
- Yet the 24,000‑point line remains the unresolved story, embodying both the hope for a year‑end breakout and the risk that weak global growth or a hawkish surprise from the Fed could halt the rally.
For now, the bias in German equities is cautiously positive, but the market is making it very clear where the next big battle line lies: right at the doorstep of 24,000 on the DAX.
References
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