Gold Price Today 4 December 2025: XAU/USD Holds Around $4,200 as Fed Rate-Cut Bets Intensify

Spot gold is trading just above the psychologically important $4,200 per ounce mark on Thursday, 4 December 2025, consolidating after a record-breaking year and a powerful autumn rally.

Around midday in London, XAU/USD hovered near $4,199–$4,205 per ounce, having traded roughly between $4,176 and $4,217 during today’s session, according to live pricing on major spot feeds. ^[1]That leaves gold only a few percent below its all‑time high near $4,338 per ounce. ^[2]

Data from TradingEconomics shows that as of 4 December, gold is down about 0.1% on the day at $4,199.11, but still up roughly 5.5% over the past month and about 59% year‑on‑year, underscoring how steep the 2025 advance has been. ^[3]

Key takeaways on gold price today (4 December 2025)

Spot gold (XAU/USD): ~$4,199–$4,210 per ounce, mildly lower on the day but holding above key support around $4,185–$4,200. ^[4]
Comex/International futures: February gold futures recently around $4,226 per ounce, also slightly softer but still elevated after touching fresh highs this week. ^[5]
52‑week range: about $2,583–$4,382 per ounce, meaning prices sit near the very top of their one‑year band. ^[6]
Trend: 2025 has delivered over 50 all‑time highs and a ~60% return for gold so far, making it one of the best‑performing major assets this year. ^[7]
Drivers today:
- Profit‑taking after recent highs
- Markets pricing an ~89% chance of a 25 bps Fed rate cut next week ^[8]
- Ongoing central‑bank buying and intense demand amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty ^[9]

Gold price today: where XAU/USD stands

Different live feeds show slightly different spot quotes depending on time and venue, but they’re clustered tightly around the same zone:

Investing.com lists XAU/USD at about $4,199, down 0.10% on the day, with an intraday range of $4,175.84–$4,216.58 as of early afternoon GMT. ^[10]
Pakistani and regional reporting from The Express Tribune notes spot gold around $4,199.06 at 11:41 GMT, matching the global feeds. ^[11]
GoldPrice.org and JM Bullion show early‑New‑York prices fluctuating between roughly $4,203 and $4,207 per ounce this morning. ^[12]

In other words, gold is consolidating just above $4,200, only a short step below its recent record highs around $4,338 per ounce. ^[13]

What’s moving gold today? Fed, data and central banks

1. Fed rate‑cut expectations dominate the narrative

The big macro story behind today’s price action is the U.S. Federal Reserve.

A recent Reuters commodities report highlights that markets are pricing about an 89% probability of a 25‑basis‑point Fed rate cut at next week’s meeting, after an earlier October cut. ^[14]
OANDA’s MarketPulse notes that gold’s recent surge “comes almost entirely” from developments at the Fed: a shift from a hawkish stance toward a renewed “dovish tilt”, helped by softer U.S. labour data and a run of dovish comments from officials like Williams, Daly and Waller. ^[15]

Rate‑cut hopes are textbook bullish for gold: lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non‑yielding asset, while a weaker dollar tends to mechanically lift the metal’s price in USD terms.

An opinion piece in ThePrint goes further, arguing that a single sentence from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the October meeting flipped gold’s direction, underlining how sensitive the metal now is to central‑bank communication, not just the actual rate moves. ^[16]

2. Economic data and dollar moves

Softening U.S. data has reinforced those expectations:

NDTV Profit reports that weak ADP employment numbers and lingering worries about the U.S. services sector helped push the U.S. dollar index below 99, supporting both gold and silver as safe‑haven assets. ^[17]
MarketPulse notes that a ninth consecutive decline in U.S. manufacturing activity and mixed labour data have strengthened the case for further easing. ^[18]

Traders are now watching the ISM services PMI and the delayed PCE inflation report—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—for final confirmation before next week’s meeting. ^[19]

3. Profit‑taking after six‑week highs

Even with strong macro tailwinds, today’s small pullback is largely about technical profit‑taking:

MarketPulse describes today’s dip to around $4,205 as a retracement from recent six‑week highs, characterising it as “primarily technical profit‑taking” rather than a shift in fundamentals. ^[20]
Reuters similarly noted earlier this week that gold fell more than 1% as investors locked in gains after a strong run‑up. ^[21]

Given the scale of 2025’s rally—over 60% year‑to‑date—even relatively minor pauses are natural. ^[22]

4. Central‑bank demand remains a powerful tailwind

Official sector buying has been another major pillar of support:

The Reuters piece reports that central banks purchased 53 tonnes of gold in October, a 36% month‑on‑month jump and the largest monthly net demand of 2025 so far. ^[23]
The World Gold Council (WGC) notes that central‑bank demand has stayed “well above average” throughout 2025, helping power more than 50 new all‑time highs in the gold price this year. ^[24]

Persistent buying from emerging‑market central banks—whose gold reserves remain far below those of advanced economies—continues to underpin the structural bull case for bullion. ^[25]

Regional gold prices today: India, Pakistan, Indonesia

Although the global benchmark is quoted in U.S. dollars per ounce, local prices tell their own stories.

India: MCX gold eases but remains near record highs

On India’s Multi Commodity Exchange:

December gold futures slipped to about ₹1,30,374 per 10 grams, down ₹88 or 0.07% in today’s session. ^[26]

Despite the intraday dip, analysts quoted by NDTV emphasise that:

Bullion remains supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, growing risk aversion, and expectations of more Fed easing.
Volatility could stay elevated as traders watch upcoming data and Fed speeches. ^[27]

Pakistan: sharp drop in local gold rates

In Pakistan, prices corrected more visibly in rupee terms:

The Express Tribune reports that in Karachi and major cities, the price of 10 grams of gold fell by Rs 1,457 to Rs 378,482, while one tola dropped by Rs 1,700 to Rs 441,462. ^[28]
The same article notes that in the global bullion market the headline price fell $17 to $4,191 per ounce, with spot gold around $4,199.06 as of 11:41 GMT. ^[29]

This mirrors the modest global pullback but is magnified locally by currency moves and recent volatility in silver, which has hit record highs. ^[30]

Indonesia: jewellery prices reflect elevated bullion

In Indonesia, gold jewellery prices have been updated higher in step with global bullion:

Jakarta‑based Pintu News lists 9‑carat jewellery at IDR 1,196,000 and 18‑carat pieces around IDR 2,110,000, with premium 18K designs quoted even higher. ^[31]

Retail prices vary by brand and design, but the broad picture is that households across Asia are now paying record‑high local currency prices for gold jewellery, even after today’s minor pullback. ^[32]

Short‑term technical picture: XAU/USD around $4,200

Technical studies and trading‑desk notes published today paint a picture of consolidation in a strong uptrend.

Major levels and indicators

On the widely followed XAU/USD cross:

Investing.com shows spot around $4,199, with a daily range of $4,175–$4,217 and a 52‑week band of $2,583–$4,381. ^[33]
Their technical summary (daily timeframe) is broadly bullish‑to‑neutral, with:
- 7 moving‑average buy signals vs 5 sell signals
- Key moving averages clustered around the current price (MA5 ≈ $4,196; MA50 ≈ $4,204)
- RSI(14) near 48, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. ^[34]

Pivot levels on the same feed place the central pivot around $4,200.9, with immediate resistance near $4,204–$4,210and support in the high $4,180s–$4,190s. ^[35]

Analysts’ intraday forecasts for 4 December 2025

Several brokerages and FX research houses published same‑day gold forecasts for 4 December:

LiteFinance describes gold as “declining in a correction within the short‑term uptrend” after testing support at $4,164–$4,154 earlier in the week and then hitting a first upside target at $4,210. If price retests that support zone, their strategy favours renewed long positions with targets at $4,210 and $4,264, while a break below $4,154 could extend the correction to $4,114–$4,099, which they see as the trend boundary. ^[36]
Forex24 notes that at the time of their publication today, gold was trading near $4,218 per ounce, with price “again testing the area between the signal lines” in a bullish channel. They foresee a possible dip toward $4,165followed by renewed gains toward $4,345, unless support at $4,105 breaks, in which case a drop toward $4,065becomes more likely. ^[37]
OANDA/MarketPulse flags $4,202 as the nearest support, with resistance at $4,240 and the all‑time high around $4,381 as the next upside target if the rally resumes. They characterise today’s weakness as “technical profit‑taking” with the broader technical and fundamental backdrops still positive. ^[38]
FXStreet similarly argues that the “path of least resistance appears to the upside”, highlighting gold’s rebound above $4,200 and eyeing another move toward $4,250, contingent on upcoming U.S. data and continued dollar softness. ^[39]

Taken together, today’s intraday research broadly agrees on three points:

Trend: Short‑term trend remains up, but in a cooling phase after a sharp run‑up.
Key support: The $4,160–$4,185 zone is seen as crucial near‑term support; deeper support sits around $4,100–$4,115. ^[40]
Upside targets: As long as those supports hold, analysts continue to cite targets between $4,240 and $4,345, with a retest of the $4,381 all‑time high possible if the Fed delivers a dovish message next week. ^[41]

Medium‑term and 2026 outlook: can gold keep climbing?

Today also saw a major strategic report from the World Gold Council, titled “Gold Outlook 2026: Push ahead or pull back”, published on 4 December 2025—the same date as today’s price action. ^[42]

2025 in context

The WGC highlights just how extraordinary 2025 has already been for gold:

Over 50 new all‑time highs
A gain of over 60% year‑to‑date as of late November
One of the four strongest calendar‑year performances since 1971 ^[43]

This surge has been driven by:

Geopolitical and geoeconomic stress (conflicts, sanctions, trade frictions)
A weaker U.S. dollar and somewhat lower real yields
Strong investment and central‑bank demand, with global gold ETFs adding more than 700 tonnes of gold holdings this year and central banks buying well above historical averages. ^[44]

WGC scenarios for 2026

Looking to 2026, the WGC outlines three broad scenarios: ^[45]

“Macro consensus / rangebound”
- Market pricing assumes steady global growth, modest additional Fed cuts (~75 bps), slightly lower inflation and a mildly stronger dollar.
- In this base case, gold might trade in a relatively tight range (-5% to +5%) around current levels.
“Shallow slip” – moderately bullish
- Growth slows, risk appetite falls, and the Fed cuts more than currently expected while the dollar weakens.
- WGC analysis suggests gold could gain about 5–15% in 2026 from today’s levels in this environment.
“Doom loop” – strongly bullish
- A deeper, more synchronised global downturn driven by rising geopolitical and geoeconomic risk, with aggressive Fed cuts and falling yields.
- In this risk‑off scenario, gold could surge 15–30% from current levels.
“Reflation return” – bearish case
- A successful pro‑growth policy mix from the Trump administration leads to stronger U.S. growth, higher yields, and a stronger dollar.
- Under this risk‑on shift, WGC estimates a potential gold correction of 5–20% from today’s price. ^[46]

Crucially, central‑bank demand and recycling trends are flagged as wildcards that could amplify or soften these moves. ^[47]

Street views: could gold hit $5,000?

Some private‑sector analysts are even more bullish:

In the Reuters report from 2 December, one strategist suggests $5,000 gold “early in the new year” is plausible if easing and safe‑haven flows continue. ^[48]

That sort of projection assumes that:

Fed cuts arrive broadly in line with, or faster than, market expectations
Geopolitical and macro risks stay elevated
Central‑bank and investor demand remain strong

None of these outcomes is guaranteed, but they help explain why options markets and ETF flows are still skewed toward upside protection rather than aggressive bearish positioning. ^[49]

What today’s gold move means for investors

With spot gold consolidating near $4,200 on 4 December 2025, the market is at an interesting crossroads:

Short‑term:
- The trend is still upward, but stretched; indicators show a cooling, not collapsing, rally. ^[50]
- A Fed cut next week could re‑ignite momentum, especially if accompanied by dovish forward guidance.
- A surprise hold or hawkish tone would likely trigger a deeper correction toward the $4,100–$4,150 area or even lower.
Medium‑term (2026):
- The baseline from the World Gold Council is for modest further gains or sideways trading, with gold already pricing in much of the macro consensus. ^[51]
- Tail‑risk scenarios—either a global “doom loop” downturn or a strong reflationary upswing—could push prices meaningfully higher or lower.
Portfolio context:
- After a ~60% annual run, gold is no longer the under‑owned hedge it once was, but WGC analysis still finds it performing strongly as a diversifier amid elevated geopolitical risk and volatile equity markets. ^[52]

As always, the numbers and scenarios above are market commentary, not personal investment advice. Anyone considering exposure to gold—whether via bullion, futures, ETFs or jewellery—should weigh their risk tolerance, time horizon and local currency dynamics, and, where appropriate, consult a qualified financial adviser.