Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC) Stock Today: Share Price, Power Shocks and 2026–2030 Forecasts

Lynas Rare Earths Limited (ASX: LYC), the world’s largest producer of rare earths outside China, heads into December 2025 as one of the ASX’s standout performers of the year — but also as a company juggling grid failures, aggressive expansion and elevated expectations.

As of 5 December 2025, Lynas shares are trading around A$14–15, down from October highs above A$21 but still more than double their 52‑week low near A$6.16. TechStock²+1 The US OTC ADR (LYSDY) changes hands near US$9.57, within a 52‑week range of US$3.79–16.18. ^[1]

Below is a structured look at the latest share price action, operational news, analyst forecasts and key catalysts as of 5 December 2025.

Lynas share price now: from 13‑year high to consolidation

Data from Intelligent Investor shows Lynas’ current ASX share price around A$14.2, modestly higher on the day but slightly below where it was a week ago. ^[2] A detailed 4 December update notes:

The stock has more than doubled from a 52‑week low near A$6.16.
It remains roughly 35% below its October 2025 peak above A$21.60. TechStock²

Macquarie estimates the shares are up about 130% in 2025 year‑to‑date, following a powerful re‑rating across rare earths producers. ^[3]

On the US market, the ADR (LYSDY) is trading near US$9.57 on 5 December, with a day range of roughly US$9.20–9.60 and that wide 52‑week band of US$3.79–16.18, underlining how volatile the name has been through the year. ^[4]

In short: Lynas has already delivered a “multi‑bagger” move in 2025, and is now digesting those gains while investors reassess the risk/reward after a recent pullback.

Fundamentals: revenue rebounding, profit compressed

FY2025 snapshot

According to financial data compiled by StockAnalysis, Lynas generated about A$556.5 million in revenue in FY2025, up roughly 20% from the previous year’s A$463.3 million. But net earnings fell sharply to around A$8 million, down about 90% year‑on‑year, reflecting lower prices earlier in the cycle, higher costs and heavy investment. ^[5]

That combination — rising revenue but squeezed profit — is central to how analysts currently view the stock: growth is visible, but the margin profile is still in repair mode.

Latest quarterly numbers

For the quarter ended 30 September 2025, Reuters reports that Lynas’ revenue rose 66% year‑on‑year to roughly A$200.2 million, but still came in below Visible Alpha consensus near A$230 million. ^[6] Key operational points from that report:

Rare earth oxide output rose from 2,722 tonnes a year earlier to about 3,993 tonnes.
Lynas produced around 9 tonnes of dysprosium and terbium, two high‑value heavy rare earths. ^[7]
Management highlighted strong demand from both existing and new customers, and guided to high‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit annual demand growth for rare earths. ^[8]

The company also said it will bring forward samarium production to the first half of calendar 2026, responding to stronger‑than‑expected interest in that heavy rare earth. ^[9]

Operations: Kalgoorlie power shocks and heavy rare earth ramp‑up

Kalgoorlie outages: one‑month production shortfall

The biggest near‑term negative story is power reliability at Lynas’ new Kalgoorlie processing facility in Western Australia.

On 24 November, Lynas warned of a production shortfall equivalent to about one month’s output at Kalgoorlie in the current quarter, citing repeated power disruptions in November that cut Mixed Rare Earths Carbonate (MREC) production — the key feedstock for its Malaysian plant. ^[10]

Follow‑up reporting from Australian media indicates Lynas has downgraded December‑quarter production by roughly one‑third and is exploring off‑grid solutions, including backup generation and a hybrid renewable power station near its Mt Weld mine. ^[11]

The company says:

It is working with the Western Australian government and utility Western Power to stabilise supply. ^[12]
It believes lost production can be recovered later in the financial year, assuming short‑term fixes succeed. ^[13]

From a market perspective, the outages have introduced a new operational risk and partly explain the share price pullback from October’s highs.

Malaysia and the heavy rare earth growth story

While Kalgoorlie has stumbled, the downstream business in Gebeng, Malaysia is ramping:

Lynas has long shipped concentrate from Mt Weld (WA) to Gebeng for separation and refining. ^[14]
The company has begun selling heavy rare earth oxides (HREOs) such as dysprosium and terbium, and has made its first US HREO sales, with further discussions underway with American metal and magnet projects. ^[15]

A quarterly report to the ASX notes that Lynas is actively positioning itself as a key supplier into new US and allied magnet manufacturing capacity, including projects that require traceable, non‑Chinese heavy rare earths. ^[16]

Strategic partnerships: building a US magnet supply chain

One of the most important medium‑term developments is Lynas’ partnership with Noveon Magnetics in the United States:

In October 2025, Lynas and Noveon signed a non‑binding Memorandum of Understanding to form a strategic partnership aimed at building a domestic US rare earth magnet supply chain. ^[17]
The collaboration covers both light and heavy rare earth inputs and targets critical sectors such as defence, automotive and industrial machinery. ^[18]
The partners have committed to finalise a definitive agreement and to work with customers and the US government to secure reliable, traceable magnet supply. ^[19]

Alongside Noveon, Lynas continues to evaluate magnet partnerships in Asia (such as the JS Link project in Malaysia) and maintains the option value of its US heavy rare earth processing plans, although Reuters notes the future of its Texas facility remains uncertain and the company is currently focusing expansion in Malaysia. ^[20]

This strategy — moving closer to high‑value magnet production rather than remaining just an oxide supplier — is central to the “premium multiple” that many investors now assign to Lynas.

Macro backdrop: rare earth prices, China controls and Australian policy

Rare earth prices are higher, but volatile

The macro backdrop is mixed but generally supportive:

Neodymium, a key magnet material, is trading around 722,500 CNY per tonne in early December, up about 6% over the past month despite a small day‑to‑day dip. ^[21]
Independent data show neodymium oxide prices up more than 16% and praseodymium oxide up around 13% earlier in 2025, while some heavy rare earth prices have more than doubled year‑to‑date. ^[22]
A strategic metals tracker estimates the current neodymium price near US$149/kg, with year‑to‑date gains of more than 50%. ^[23]

Strong demand from electric vehicles, wind turbines and defence systems has kept these markets tight even as new projects begin to appear.

China’s evolving export regime

China still dominates:

Roughly 70% of global rare earth mining, 90% of processing and over 90% of magnet production occur in China. ^[24]
In 2025 Beijing tightened export controls, including on rare earth magnets and processing equipment, forcing exporters to obtain case‑by‑case licences and disrupting parts of the automotive supply chain. ^[25]

In December 2025, however, China began issuing “general licences” for some rare earth exports, allowing approved companies to ship under year‑long permits to specific customers. ^[26]

That move marginally eases supply stress but does not dismantle the control regime. For Lynas, it means:

Some price pressure may ease if Chinese supply becomes more predictable.
But Western governments are unlikely to abandon their push for non‑Chinese supply chains, which supports Lynas’ strategic importance. ^[27]

Australia’s critical minerals policy and criticism

Australia has floated a price floor mechanism for critical minerals, including rare earths, as part of a broader A$1.2 billion strategic reserve plan, a policy Reuters reports could give producers like Lynas more certainty in volatile markets. ^[28]

At the same time, mining veteran Jake Klein — a former Lynas director — recently argued that Australia “missed a huge opportunity” to lead the rare earth industry and is still relying too much on luck over strategy. He highlighted how Malaysia’s earlier incentives convinced Lynas to build its major processing plant there and noted that the Kalgoorlie power issues show how difficult it remains to execute on ambitious critical‑minerals ambitions. ^[29]

For investors, the message is that policy risk cuts both ways: government support can be powerful, but infrastructure and regulatory gaps can still bite.

Analyst ratings and price targets: consensus bullish, valuation debated

Broker views: Macquarie, UBS and others

Recent broker and analyst commentary clusters around a broadly positive outlook, with disagreement mainly about valuation:

Macquarie: A December update relayed via The Motley Fool notes Macquarie expects Lynas shares to continue outperforming in 2026 and assigns a 12‑month price target of A$17.00. ^[30]
UBS: On 19 November, UBS upgraded Lynas from neutral to buy, lifting its target price from A$15.10 to A$17.80. The stock jumped more than 5% on the day to around A$15.5. ^[31]
Macquarie (earlier): A Barchart summary from October still showed Macquarie on a Hold rating with a A$16.50 target, illustrating how broker sentiment has shifted more positive as prices and volumes improved. ^[32]

On the US ADR, Zacks reports a single short‑term analyst target of about US$19.40 for LYSDY, implying more than 100% upside from recent prices. ^[33]

Consensus forecasts

Across different aggregators, the numbers cluster in a fairly tight band:

Investing.com: average 12‑month target around A$16.4 (high A$29.5, low A$9.5), with a consensus rating of “Buy”. ^[34]
TradingView: similar average target A$15.75, with the same high/low range. ^[35]
TipRanks: average A$15.78, based on 11 analysts in the last three months, implying roughly 9% upside from a reference price near A$14.47. ^[36]
Fintel: average one‑year price target around A$16.45, with forecasts spanning A$9.60 to A$30.98. ^[37]

Taken together, traditional analysts are signalling modest but positive upside from current levels, not a repeat of 2025’s spectacular run.

Quant and technical models

Quantitative and purely technical models are more cautious — or at least noisier:

StockInvest.us currently labels LYC a short‑term “sell”, with both short‑ and long‑term moving averages pointing lower after the recent pullback. Their latest data show a last price in the mid‑A$14s, weekly performance slightly negative and a technical “score” in negative territory. ^[38]
WalletInvestor’s algorithm predicts the ASX line could rise from about A$14.1 to roughly A$15.3 in one year (around 8% upside) and towards A$19 by 2030, implying a mid‑teens total return over five years. ^[39]
For the ADR (LYSCF), WalletInvestor estimates a move from about US$9.6 to US$11.3 over five years, an 18% gain. ^[40]

These models are inherently backward‑looking; they’re useful as sentiment barometers, not crystal balls.

Valuation concerns

A widely cited Seeking Alpha article titled “Lynas Rare Earths: Strategically Positioned, But Premium Priced In” sums up the core bear case:

Lynas has executed well and occupies a unique ex‑China supply position.
Yet after a big 2025 rally, the author argues that a lot of future growth and high margins are already priced in, leaving less room for error. ^[41]

That tension — strategic importance versus demanding valuation — is exactly what current buyers and sellers are debating.

Short interest and sentiment

A fresh 5 December 2025 Smartkarma briefing highlights Lynas among notable names in ASX short‑interest data for the week of 28 November. While the detailed numbers sit behind a paywall, the inclusion signals that sophisticated traders are actively using Lynas as a vehicle for both bullish and bearish bets. ^[42]

MarketBeat, tracking the ADR, notes:

A negative news sentiment score relative to the broader basic materials sector over the past week, largely driven by production‑shortfall headlines. ^[43]
Modest search interest and institutional ownership, reminding investors this is still a relatively specialised, higher‑beta name. ^[44]

Key drivers to watch into 2026

Bringing everything together, several themes are likely to dominate Lynas’ share price over the next 12–18 months.

Upside drivers

Fixing Kalgoorlie and lifting volumes
If Lynas can stabilise power at Kalgoorlie, catch up lost production and prove it can run its expanded value chain reliably, market confidence in forward earnings should improve. ^[45]
Heavy rare earth ramp and better margins
Increased output of dysprosium, terbium and (from 2026) samarium, sold into structurally tight markets, could materially improve margins versus a pure light rare earth mix. ^[46]
Magnet partnerships and downstream integration
Executing on the Noveon alliance and Asian magnet projects would push Lynas further down the value chain, potentially smoothing earnings and supporting a premium valuation multiple. ^[47]
Government support and strategic deals
Concrete Australian price‑floor mechanisms or expanded US‑Australia critical‑minerals initiatives would reinforce Lynas’ role as a preferred non‑Chinese supplier. ^[48]

Risk factors

Persistent operational issues
If Kalgoorlie’s power problems extend beyond the current quarter or require expensive long‑term workarounds, capex and operating cost guidance may need to rise again. ^[49]
Policy whiplash from China
A substantial easing of Chinese export restrictions — beyond the initial general licences — could soften prices and erode the urgency of diversifying supply chains, hurting pricing power. ^[50]
Regulatory noise in Malaysia and the US
Past controversies in Malaysia and uncertainty around US heavy rare earth processing underline that project timelines are not guaranteed. Analysts repeatedly flag permitting and political risk as a persistent overhang. ^[51]
Valuation compression
With revenue growing but profit still low relative to market capitalisation, any disappointment on volumes, prices or capex could trigger a de‑rating, as some cautious analyst notes already suggest. ^[52]

Is Lynas Rare Earths a buy in December 2025?

From a news and data perspective as of 5 December 2025, the picture is fairly clear:

Strategic position: Lynas remains the flagship non‑Chinese rare earths producer, now with growing heavy rare earth capabilities and increasingly direct ties to Western magnet makers and governments. ^[53]
Operating momentum: Volumes and revenue are rising strongly, but grid instability at Kalgoorlie shows the build‑out is not risk‑free. ^[54]
Valuation and forecasts: Traditional analysts broadly rate the stock a Buy with mid‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit upside over 12 months, while some independent research warns the stock is already pricing in a lot of good news. ^[55]
Market sentiment: Short‑term technical models lean cautious after the pullback, even as long‑term thematic demand for rare earths remains robust. ^[56]

For investors, that translates into a classic high‑beta, high‑conviction scenario: Lynas offers direct exposure to the global race to build critical‑minerals and magnet supply chains outside China, but it does so with meaningful operational, policy and valuation risk.