SMX (Security Matters) Stock Soars Over 1,000% in Two Weeks: $111.5M Deal, Gold Bet and High‑Risk Outlook

Key Takeaways

SMX (Security Matters) Public Limited Company (Nasdaq: SMX) has rocketed from a micro‑cap collapse to one of the most explosive movers on the market, with the share price jumping from under $6 in late November to roughly $141 at the 4 December close and as high as $211 in after‑hours trading. ^[1]
The rally has been fueled by a $111.5 million equity purchase agreement with Target Capital 1, plus a wave of press releases around gold verification, plastics “passports,” and a Plastic Cycle Token (PCT) that tokenizes verified material flows. ^[2]
Despite the surge, SMX remains one of 2025’s worst-performing stocks overall, after earlier plunging about 99% year‑to‑date, according to an in‑depth review from EBC Financial Group. ^[3]
Fundamentals are extremely weak: revenue is effectively zero, net losses are in the tens of millions of dollars, and most of the balance sheet is made up of intangibles. ^[4]
Independent models and AI platforms are overwhelmingly cautious: StockInvest calls SMX a “very high risk” hold; Intellectia and Danelfin rate it Strong Sell; CoinCodex expects the stock to fall more than 50% from current levels; ChartMill gives it 0/10 on fundamentals. ^[5]

This article reviews the latest SMX stock news, the December 2025 catalysts, and what current forecasts and analyses suggest for investors.

SMX stock today: a tiny float with extreme volatility

As of 5 December 2025, the last regular session close for SMX was $141.00 per share on 4 December. After‑hours trading that evening saw quotes around $211, highlighting how violently the stock is swinging. ^[6]

Across the key data providers, figures vary, but the overall picture is consistent:

Price performance
- 1‑day move (4 Dec): +141.07% (from $58.49 to $141.00). ^[7]
- 1 week: roughly +1,390%. ^[8]
- 1 month: around +595–1,000%, depending on the start date used. ^[9]
- 1 year / year‑to‑date: still about –99%, despite the recent spike. ^[10]
Trading range & volume
- Day’s range on 4 December: $59.16–$167.55. ^[11]
- 52‑week range: roughly $3.12 at the low end up to a split‑adjusted high above $66,000, reflecting layers of reverse splits and data rescaling. ^[12]
- Volume on 4 December: about 6.0–6.6 million shares, far above typical levels. ^[13]
Market capitalization and float
Estimates differ markedly between platforms, underscoring how messy the capital structure has become:
- Market cap: around $25 million on Investing.com, ~$61 million on TradingView and StockTitan, and ~$148 million on AlphaSpread – all using similar price points but different share‑count assumptions. ^[14]
- Free float: TradingView shows roughly 826,000 shares, while StockTitan lists just 114,000 float shares and short interest at about 22–23% of that float. ^[15]
Risk metrics
- 1‑year beta: about 9.6, indicating extreme sensitivity to market moves. ^[16]
- TradingView calculates stock volatility around 184%, while StockInvest reports recent daily volatility near 96% and a single‑day swing of 183% between intraday low and high. ^[17]

This is not a normal small‑cap. It is a micro‑float, high‑short‑interest, ultra‑volatile security that can double or halve in a matter of hours.

What SMX actually does

SMX (Security Matters) is an Ireland‑based holding company focused on “physical‑to‑digital link” technology for supply chains. Its core system combines: ^[18]

Molecular or chemical markers embedded directly into materials (metals, plastics, textiles, etc.).
Specialized readers that can detect those markers later in the supply chain.
A digital ledger, typically blockchain‑based, to record each scan as a verifiable event.

In practical terms, SMX tries to give materials a persistent “memory” – provenance, processing history, and recovery data that survive smelting, recycling, or re‑casting. Current applications the company highlights include: ^[19]

Traceability for plastics, via national “plastics passports” and a Plastic Cycle Token system.
Verification of gold and precious metals, including at refineries where traditional tracking often breaks down.
Rare earth and critical mineral traceability, with European research partners.
Brand protection and anti‑counterfeiting in fashion and luxury goods.

The December 2025 news cycle has focused on two narratives: gold and plastics.

Catalyst 1: The $111.5 million equity purchase agreement

On 1–3 December 2025, SMX began promoting what it calls a transformational financing: an equity purchase agreement of up to $111.5 million with Target Capital 1 (TC1). ^[20]

Key points from the Accesswire releases and related SEC filings:

The structure appears to combine:
- A $11.5 million promissory note or initial commitment.
- A $100 million equity line, under which SMX can sell shares to TC1 over time, likely at a discount to prevailing market prices. ^[21]
Management pitches this as the capital needed to:
- Scale infrastructure for gold, rare earths and plastics verification globally.
- Support national‑level projects like Singapore’s plastics passport and Dubai’s gold initiatives. ^[22]
Some press material also mentions using part of the funding to build a reserve in global assets such as Bitcoin, effectively adding a crypto‑treasury angle to the story. TechStock²+1

From a stock‑market perspective, the immediate effect of the announcement was paradoxical:

When the deal was first flagged, SMX fell almost 30% intraday, as noted by StockTwits coverage, reflecting fears of future dilution. ^[23]
After traders digested the news and a cluster of bullish‑sounding press releases followed, the stock pivoted sharply higher, delivering several consecutive triple‑digit percentage moves.

The equity line is a double‑edged sword:
It gives SMX a potential lifeline, but also sets up the possibility of large, ongoing share issuance into any price strength, which can cap rallies and pressure existing shareholders.

Catalyst 2: DMCC, gold verification and the “two‑tier” bullion market

On 2 December 2025, SMX announced a collaboration with Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC), one of the world’s most important gold trading hubs. ^[24]

According to the Accesswire releases aggregated across outlets:

SMX’s system embeds an immutable molecular identity inside gold, designed to survive:
- Melting and recasting
- Alloying
- Splitting and re‑barcoding
The company argues this can:
- Distinguish verified gold from anonymous or potentially sanctioned bullion.
- Prevent a single counterfeit bar from triggering liquidity freezes and collateral crises in the global gold system. ^[25]
SMX’s marketing leans into the concept of a “two‑tier gold market”:
- Tier 1: gold proven verified by molecular identity.
- Tier 2: unverified legacy bullion that might trade at a discount.

SMX also plans to showcase its precious‑metals “Physical‑to‑Digital Link” at the 2025 DMCC Precious Metals Conference, as disclosed in a 25 November Form 6‑K. ^[26]

For investors, the DMCC story is a narrative amplifier: it positions SMX not just as a niche tech provider, but as potential infrastructure for systemic gold‑market risk management. The financial impact, however, will depend entirely on whether these concepts turn into paid deployments and recurring revenue.

Catalyst 3: Plastic Cycle Token (PCT) and Singapore’s national plastics passport

A second major strand of the December news flow revolves around plastics and circularity.

Recent releases describe:

A Plastic Cycle Token (PCT) that converts verified material events (production, use, recovery, reintegration) into tokenized data that can be traded or used across platforms. ^[27]
A “proof premium”: the idea that markets will pay more for materials whose origin and lifecycle are scientifically verified, rather than merely documented in audits. ^[28]
A national plastics passport in Singapore, developed with A*STAR, positioned as a model for the broader ASEAN region’s plastics and recycling market. ^[29]

In combination, these initiatives frame SMX as building a data layer for real‑world materials, where each kilogram of plastic or metal can carry its own verifiable transaction history.

Again, the commercial question is simple: who will pay how much, and on what terms? No clear revenue guidance has been provided.

Capital structure: massive incentive grants and years of reverse splits

Just before the stock took off, SMX filed a Form 6‑K on 25 November 2025 with several important capital‑structure disclosures: ^[30]

The company expanded its 2022 Incentive Equity Plan from around 1.14 million to 10.79 million authorized ordinary shares.
Immediately after this expansion, SMX granted:
- 6,935,000 restricted stock units (RSUs), and
- 3,850,000 stock options
  to executives, directors, employees, consultants and advisors.
SMX used home‑country governance exemptions under Nasdaq Rule 5615(a)(3) to approve this increase without a shareholder vote.

This sits on top of a long series of reverse stock splits and dilutive financings:

A 4.1‑for‑1 reverse split effective June 16, 2025, reflected in a 6‑K filed on 16 July 2025. ^[31]
A 1‑for‑11 reverse split on 23 October 2025, according to StockAnalysis’ corporate actions log. ^[32]
Earlier 2024–2025 6‑Ks detail bridge notes and promissory notes totaling several million dollars, issued to institutional investors on tough terms to keep the company funded. ^[33]

EBC Financial Group’s November analysis explicitly characterizes SMX as a “textbook microcap collapse” driven by repeated equity issuance, reverse splits and Nasdaq deficiency notices, culminating in a share‑price wipe‑out of roughly –99% before the recent bounce. ^[34]

Against that backdrop, the $111.5 million equity line and the 10.8 million‑share incentive pool underscore that future dilution remains a central risk.

Fundamentals: big story, almost no revenue

Behind the dramatic news flow and price action, the underlying financials remain very weak:

Revenue
- TradingView and AlphaSpread both show essentially zero revenue over the last fiscal year and trailing twelve months. ^[35]
Profitability and losses
- Net income (FY): around –$31 million, per TradingView. ^[36]
- AlphaSpread, which aggregates reported financials, lists net income around –$44 million, operating expenses of ~–$42 million, and no meaningful topline sales. ^[37]
- Net income per employee is roughly –$900k to –$1 million based on a headcount in the few tens. ^[38]
Balance sheet quality
- Assets: about $38.9 million, of which $36.6 million are classified as intangibles. ^[39]
- Liabilities: about $37.5 million, implying a thin equity cushion. ^[40]
- Cash and short‑term investments: roughly $0.75 million, meaning the company has relied heavily on new financing to stay solvent. ^[41]
Scores and flags from fundamentals‑focused platforms
- AlphaSpread gives SMX a profitability score of 21/100 and a solvency score of 41/100, and cannot compute a robust intrinsic value because historical data are limited and highly unstable. ^[42]
- ChartMill assigns SMX a 0/10 fundamental rating and notes that its long‑term share‑price performance ranks worse than roughly 94% of all stocks in their universe. ^[43]

SMX’s own SEC filings for 2024 and the six months ended 30 June 2025 emphasize recurring operating losses, negative cash flows and dependence on external financing, a classic “going concern” risk profile. ^[44]

What do current forecasts and AI models say about SMX stock?

Despite the spectacular short‑term gains, most independent models are skeptical that SMX can sustain current price levels.

StockInvest.us: Hold/Accumulate, “very high risk”

StockInvest’s technical analysis for 4 December 2025 highlights: ^[45]

Daily move: +141.07%, with a trading range of 183.22%.
Price up in 8 of the last 10 sessions, for a 2,616% gain over two weeks.
Average daily volatility close to 96%.
No volume‑based support below current levels, meaning any reversal could be severe.

Conclusion: SMX is upgraded from “Strong Sell” to a “Hold (Accumulate)” on short‑term technicals, but explicitly labeled “very high risk,” with an expectation of a possible sharp correction.

Intellectia.ai: Strong Sell

Intellectia’s SMX forecast page describes the stock as a “Strong Sell candidate” based on technical signals, moving averages, short‑sell data, pattern matching and seasonality. ^[46]

Key points:

The model sees SMX as within a falling trend and expects weak performance in coming days and weeks, even though recent candles are green.
Longer‑term projections (2025–2030) use pre‑split scaling, but still imply dramatic downside from today’s triple‑digit share price.

The takeaway is not the exact dollar targets – which are distorted by the split history – but the directional call: Intellectia assumes mean reversion rather than a new uptrend.

CoinCodex: Short‑term collapse, modest long‑term upside vs. that lower base

CoinCodex’s price‑prediction engine, updated for late 2025, currently shows: ^[47]

Tomorrow’s predicted price: about $59.91, implying a –57% drop from ~$141.
Full‑year 2025 range: $59.91–$60.50, for an average near $60.20.
2030 range: around $59.75–$70.44, noticeably below today’s price but slightly above the 2025/26 band.
One‑year ahead expectation: about –13.7% from that ~$60 level.
The site explicitly states that SMX is “currently not a good stock to buy”, expecting negative returns over the next 12 months.

Danelfin: AI Score 1/10 (Strong Sell)

Danelfin, which combines 27 technical, fundamental and sentiment signals, assigns SMX: ^[48]

AI Score: 1/10 – Strong Sell.
Probability of beating the S&P 500 over 3 months: 27.44%, versus an average of 54.20% for US stocks.
Probability advantage: –26.77%, meaning their AI expects SMX to underperform the market materially.
Reported market cap: about $61.44 million, reinforcing the micro‑cap status.

ChartMill and AlphaSpread: no analyst coverage, no traditional price targets

ChartMill notes that: ^[49]

SMX has no Wall Street analyst coverage and no published price targets.
Technical rating: 3/10, with the stock described as a bad performer relative to peers.
Fundamental rating: 0/10, with deeply negative return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA).

AlphaSpread likewise shows no analyst price targets or consensus forecasts, and cannot compute a reliable intrinsic value, given the lack of stable revenue and the extreme volatility. ^[50]

From “worst stock of 2025” to speculative short‑squeeze candidate

An article published by EBC Financial Group on 10 November 2025 titled “SMX Stock: How It Became the Worst‑Performing Stock of 2025” provides the backdrop for the current frenzy. ^[51]

EBC’s key points include:

SMX stock had plunged nearly 99% in 2025, placing it among the worst‑returning U.S. names.
Drivers of the collapse:
- Weak financial results and negligible revenue.
- Repeated Nasdaq compliance notices.
- A series of dilutive financings and bridge loans.
- A 10‑for‑1 reverse stock split, which failed to restore confidence.
EBC concludes that any recovery would require:
- Sustained revenue growth.
- Visible progress toward positive operating cash flow.
- Clear resolution of listing and governance issues.

Since that article, SMX has executed more corporate actions, announced more financing, and then suddenly rallied hundreds of percent in a matter of days, fueled by:

A tiny, conflictingly‑reported float likely under 1 million shares. ^[52]
Short interest around 20–25% of that float, per StockTitan. ^[53]
A cluster of optimistic press releases around gold, plastics and the $111.5M equity facility. ^[54]

The result is a stock that many traders now treat as a short‑squeeze or momentum vehicle, rather than a conventional investment.

Key risks investors should understand

Given the current price and narrative, several risks stand out:

Dilution from financing and incentives
- The $111.5M equity line and earlier convertible notes effectively give SMX and its lenders the ability to issue large amounts of new stock into any strength. ^[55]
- The expanded incentive plan (10.8M shares) plus newly granted RSUs and options add another significant layer of potential dilution. ^[56]
Going‑concern and execution risk
- SMX currently reports no meaningful revenue and large recurring losses, with a balance sheet dominated by intangibles and limited cash. ^[57]
- Converting pilot projects and partnerships into contracted, recurring revenue at scale is unproven.
Nasdaq listing and regulatory risk
- The company has already executed multiple reverse splits to maintain its listing and has previously faced Nasdaq deficiency notices, as highlighted by EBC’s review. ^[58]
- A renewed price collapse could reignite delisting concerns.
Crypto and market‑cycle exposure
- If SMX allocates part of its financing into Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies as reserves, shareholder outcomes will become partially tied to crypto‑asset cycles and associated regulatory headlines, unrelated to the core verification business. TechStock²+1
Extreme volatility and liquidity
- Daily swings of 50–180%, a micro‑float and crowded short interest mean it may be difficult to enter or exit positions without severe slippage. ^[59]

For many investors, this combination places SMX firmly in “speculative microcap” territory.

What to watch next

For readers tracking SMX stock after the December 2025 spike, several signposts will matter more than day‑to‑day price moves:

Closing and usage of the $111.5M equity facility
- Follow‑up SEC filings (6‑Ks) will need to clarify how much of the facility is actually drawn, on what terms, and how shares are being issued. ^[60]
Revenue‑bearing contracts vs. pilot projects
- Announcements that specify recurring revenue, minimum volumes, or long‑term commitments with DMCC, gold ecosystem partners, and national plastics passport programs will matter far more than marketing language. ^[61]
Nasdaq compliance and governance updates
- Any new listing notices, changes in board composition, or audit‑related disclosures will be critical for assessing long‑term viability. ^[62]
Pace of share issuance and insider behavior
- Investors will be watching how quickly SMX issues stock under the equity line, and how management uses its newly granted RSUs and options over time. ^[63]
Short interest trends
- Changes in short interest relative to the tiny float could determine whether short squeezes continue or whether speculative pressure begins to unwind. ^[64]

Bottom line

As of 5 December 2025, SMX stands at a strange crossroads:

On one hand, it has ambitious technology, a growing web of partnerships in gold, critical minerals and plastics, and a headline‑grabbing $111.5 million financing agreement that could fund global deployment. ^[65]
On the other, it remains a company with almost no revenue, large cumulative losses, heavy dilution, and a recent history as one of the worst‑performing stocks in the U.S. market. ^[66]

Current independent forecasts and AI‑driven models largely agree on one point: at today’s price levels, SMX is a high‑risk, speculative trade rather than a conventional investment. ^[67]

For traders, SMX may continue to offer dramatic, short‑term opportunities driven by news bursts, float dynamics and short‑squeeze mechanics. For long‑term investors, the more important questions will be whether the company can turn its proof‑of‑concept narrative into durable revenue and cash flow – and how much equity will be issued along the way.