Gold Price Today, December 5, 2025: Yellow Metal Firms on Weak Dollar as Fed Cut Bets Grow and Silver Nears Record High

Gold prices are edging higher on Friday, December 5, 2025, as a softer U.S. dollar offsets pressure from still-elevated bond yields and investors brace for a crucial U.S. inflation release that could set the tone for next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

Spot gold is trading a little above $4,220 per ounce, up roughly 0.5% intraday, while U.S. gold futures hover in the mid‑$4,250s, leaving the metal marginally higher for the week after a choppy few sessions. ^[1]

At the same time, silver remains the standout story of 2025: prices are holding around $58 an ounce, just below this week’s fresh record above $58, after more than doubling year‑to‑date on the back of a deepening physical supply squeeze. ^[2]

In India, MCX gold futures and physical prices in key cities such as Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai and Bengaluru are trading near record territory around ₹1.30 lakh per 10 grams, even as local analysts turn tactically cautious for the very short term. ^[3]

Below is a detailed breakdown of what is driving gold and silver today, and what traders and long‑term investors should watch next.

Global Gold Prices Today: Supported by Weak Dollar, Capped by Firm Yields

According to the latest readings from international markets, spot gold is up about half a percent near $4,227 an ounce, while December U.S. gold futures trade around $4,258. ^[4]

Dollar vs. Yields: A Tug of War

Two familiar forces are pulling gold in opposite directions:

Weaker U.S. dollar
- The dollar index is hovering close to a five‑week low against major peers, making dollar‑priced bullion cheaper for non‑U.S. buyers and lending support to gold. ^[5]
Still‑elevated bond yields
- The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield is parked near a two‑week high around 4.1%, which raises the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets like gold and helps cap rallies. ^[6]

Analysts quoted by Reuters say short‑term traders are reluctant to add aggressive long positions until they see how inflation data lands later today and what it implies for the Fed’s next moves. ^[7]

U.S. Data: Mixed Signals Before the Fed

Recent U.S. macroeconomic numbers give a somewhat confusing picture:

Jobless claims fell to about 191,000, the lowest in more than three years, suggesting a still‑resilient labour market. ^[8]
Private payrolls (ADP), however, dropped by roughly 32,000 in November, marking the steepest fall in more than two and a half years and hinting at a cooling jobs backdrop. ^[9]

This blend of softening growth but not‑yet‑broken employment is exactly the sort of environment where markets scrutinise each inflation print for clues on how far and fast the Fed will cut.

Macro Backdrop: Fed Cut Widely Priced In, But Path Still Uncertain

December 9–10 Fed Meeting in Focus

Both economists and futures markets now lean heavily toward a 25‑basis‑point rate cut at the December 9–10 Federal Reserve meeting:

A Reuters poll of over 100 economists shows a clear majority expecting a quarter‑point reduction in the policy rate. ^[10]
CME FedWatch‑style tools and related commentary suggest markets have priced in roughly 85–90% odds of such a cut, meaning a good portion of the “dovish surprise” is already embedded in gold prices. ^[11]

That is one reason why, as one analyst on Investing.com puts it, gold bulls look “reluctant to move upward”: they’ve already bid the metal sharply higher in anticipation of easier policy. ^[12]

Today’s PCE Inflation Print Is the Swing Factor

Later today, the market will finally get the delayed September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—scheduled for release at 1500 GMT. ^[13]

A softer‑than‑expected PCE could:
- Reinforce expectations that the Fed will not only cut next week but signal room for more easing in 2026.
- Push real yields lower and potentially fuel another leg higher in gold.
A hotter‑than‑expected PCE could:
- Revive fears that the Fed may have to stay hawkish for longer, or trim less than markets currently price in.
- Trigger profit‑taking in gold and particularly in the overheated silver trade.

Longer‑Term Scenario: Why Some See 15–30% More Upside

A recent World Gold Council scenario, highlighted in analysis on Investing.com, argues that a combination of falling bond yields, elevated geopolitical stress and a renewed flight‑to‑safety could still propel gold 15–30% higher from current levels, even after 2025’s strong run. ^[14]

That bullish case hinges on:

Central banks continuing to accumulate gold at an above‑trend pace.
Persistently negative or low real yields.
Ongoing shocks—from wars to debt scares—that keep investors hungry for safe‑haven assets.

But with so much optimism already priced in, any hint that the Fed might blink on cuts—or that inflation is stickier than expected—could produce sharp, “air pocket” style corrections.

India Focus: MCX Gold, Rupee Moves and Retail Prices

While global markets watch the Fed, Indian traders and households are dealing with their own mix of global cues, rupee volatility and local policy expectations.

MCX Gold Futures: Short‑Term Caution Amid High Prices

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), December gold futures:

Opened Friday near ₹1,29,862 per 10 grams.
Were trading around ₹1,30,750 by early afternoon IST, up roughly 0.5% from the previous close, closely tracking the global rebound. ^[15]

A fresh intraday technical note from the Times of India’s business desk, citing analyst Jateen Trivedi of LKP Securities, flags short‑term weakness even at these elevated levels: ^[16]

MCX gold futures are hovering near ₹1,30,000, but repeated failures to sustain above the ₹1,30,750–₹1,31,000 zone suggest sellers are defending that band.
Short‑term moving averages have flattened, the RSI sits near neutral, and the MACD has turned down, classic signs of fading bullish momentum.
Trivedi recommends a “sell on rise” intraday strategy:
- Entry zone: around ₹1,30,400–₹1,30,450
- Stop‑loss: near ₹1,31,500
- Downside targets: toward ₹1,29,300 and ₹1,29,000, with stronger bearish momentum expected if prices slip and hold below ₹1,29,800.

These are tactical trading levels, not long‑term value calls—but they highlight how stretched the market feels after weeks of gains.

Medium‑Term Bias Still Constructive

Interestingly, a separate TOI outlook published on December 3 painted a more constructive picture for the rest of the month: ^[17]

Analysts then argued that gold retains a “positive bias” for December, even though volatility is likely to remain elevated into the Fed meeting on December 10.
Silver, they noted, has “roared” from below $50 to the high‑$58 zone in spot trade, outpacing gold dramatically as the gold/silver ratio falls to its lowest levels of the year.
Central banks continued buying gold in October, with World Gold Council data showing about 53 tonnes added in a single month—evidence of sustained official‑sector demand.

Put together, the message from Indian brokers is:

Near‑term: Extended, vulnerable to pullbacks.
Medium‑term: Still underpinned by central‑bank demand, expectations of lower global rates and silver‑led bullish sentiment across the precious‑metals complex.

Retail Gold Prices Across India

Fresh domestic price trackers show that 24‑karat (24K) gold in India on December 5 is:

Around ₹130,550 per 10 grams (₹13,055 per gram) nationwide, up about 0.54% or roughly ₹700 from the previous day’s close. ^[18]
22K and 18K prices have risen by a similar 0.54%, mirroring global gains. ^[19]

City‑wise, rates cluster around the ₹13,000‑per‑gram mark for 24K gold across:

Mumbai & Delhi: roughly ₹130,000–₹131,000 per 10 grams. ^[20]
Chennai & Hyderabad: slightly higher in some quotes, reflecting regional demand and logistics differences.

One striking detail from Financial Express: Indian 24K gold is about 15–16% more expensive than in Dubai, largely because of import duties, taxes and distribution costs. ^[21]

Rupee, RBI and Domestic Drivers

The rupee is hovering near ₹90 per U.S. dollar, having recently touched fresh lows, though it showed a mild recovery ahead of Friday’s RBI policy review. ^[22]
A slightly firmer rupee tends to temper gains in local gold prices, but the effect is currently overwhelmed by strong international bullion benchmarks.
Market commentary suggests traders are also watching whether the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) hints at further domestic easing, which could indirectly support gold through its impact on growth and the currency. ^[23]

Silver’s Explosive Rally: Structural Shortage Steals the Show

While gold is inching higher, silver is still in full sprint.

Near Record Highs After a Historic Year

Reuters data show silver up around 2% today near $58.27 an ounce, just below Wednesday’s record close near $59. ^[24]
Year‑to‑date, silver has surged roughly 90–100%, depending on the benchmark, massively outpacing gold. ^[25]

Behind the move is a cocktail of:

Structural supply deficit, with mine output struggling to keep up with demand. ^[26]
Shrinking inventories, especially in China, where Shanghai exchange warehouses have dropped to multi‑year lows. ^[27]
Robust ETF inflows, with one recent week seeing nearly 290 tonnes of silver flow into funds tracked by Bloomberg. ^[28]
Silver’s addition to the U.S. critical minerals list, which has raised its strategic profile and drawn new speculative and industrial interest. ^[29]

Silver in India: High but Volatile

In India, retail silver prices are similarly elevated:

A recent update pegs silver near ₹190–200 per gram (about ₹1,90,000–₹2,00,000 per kilogram), with small variations across major cities. ^[30]

Given silver’s dual role as both a precious and industrial metal—used heavily in electronics, solar panels and renewable‑energy infrastructure—its price is extremely sensitive not just to interest rates, but also to global growth expectations and green‑energy policy. ^[31]

For traders, silver’s outperformance also shows up in a sharply lower gold–silver ratio, which has been hovering in the low‑70s after starting the year much higher. ^[32]

Technical Picture: Gold “Prepares for a Wider Range”

A widely read technical piece on Investing.com argues that gold is “preparing for a wider range” as it digests big gains from November and waits for the next macro catalyst. ^[33]

Futures Levels to Watch (Global)

On COMEX gold futures: ^[34]

Weekly chart
- Futures recently tested a high near $4,299 and a low around $4,194, and are now trading near a pivotal zone.
- The pattern hints at possible profit‑taking into today’s U.S. data and ahead of the Fed meeting.
Daily chart
- Immediate support sits close to the 9‑day EMA around $4,220.
- Below that, the 20‑day EMA near $4,170 and the 50‑day EMA around $4,050 form deeper support layers.
- Resistance is seen in the $4,250–$4,260 area, roughly matching this week’s intraday highs.
Intraday (1‑hour)
- Prices are trying to hold above roughly $4,250, but the formation of a bearish hammer candle suggests vulnerability to a late‑session sell‑off if the PCE number disappoints.

MCX Technicals: Intraday “Sell on Rise” View

On MCX, the technical picture echoes the global story but with rupee and local factors layered on top: ^[35]

Flattening EMAs, a neutral but not overbought RSI, and a bearish MACD crossover indicate waning intraday momentum.
Analysts judge the bias as bearish below about ₹1,30,750, with downside acceleration possible if prices sustain below roughly ₹1,29,800.

None of these levels guarantee what will happen next—but they do outline the zones where traders expect the next battle between bulls and bears to play out once the Fed and PCE dust settles.

What This Means for Investors and Traders

This section is for general information only and is not investment advice. Always consider your own risk profile or consult a professional advisor.

For Long‑Term Gold Investors

Macro drivers remain supportive:
- Central banks are still net buyers. ^[36]
- Real yields could trend lower if the Fed embarks on a full easing cycle in 2026.
- Geopolitical risks and high global debt continue to underpin gold’s role as a portfolio hedge.
Key things to watch over the next few weeks:
- Today’s PCE inflation print.
- The Fed’s statement and dot‑plot on December 9–10.
- Any revision to growth or inflation forecasts that alters the market’s cut trajectory.

For long‑term allocators, short‑term volatility around data releases is often noise—but it can create windows to add or rebalance positions with better entry prices.

For Short‑Term Traders (Global & MCX)

Volatility is likely to spike around the data release and the Fed meeting.
Global traders are watching:
- $4,170–$4,220 on the downside and $4,260–$4,300 on the upside as near‑term breakout/breakdown zones. ^[37]
In India, MCX strategies highlighted by local analysts lean toward:
- Selling rallies closer to resistance with tight stop‑losses.
- Watching rupee moves and RBI commentary for an additional layer of risk. ^[38]

Because silver is even more stretched than gold, leveraged traders may want to treat it with extra caution; sharp reversals are common when positioning becomes crowded. ^[39]

For Physical Buyers (Jewellery & Retail)

With 24K prices near ₹130,000–₹131,000 per 10 grams, buyers in India are paying a visible premium versus overseas hubs such as Dubai, largely due to duties and taxes. ^[40]
If your goal is long‑term wealth preservation rather than trading, many advisors suggest:
- Staggering purchases instead of trying to time the perfect low.
- Tracking both global spot prices and rupee trends, since a stronger rupee can sometimes cushion international price spikes. ^[41]

Gold’s move today is modest in percentage terms, but beneath the surface the market is primed for a potentially significant shift. A weaker dollar, still‑firm yields, a delayed inflation print and a high‑stakes Fed meeting have all converged into a narrow window over the next few days.

Whether that window opens onto a fresh leg of the bull market or a sharp bout of profit‑taking will depend on how the data and the Fed line up—especially now that silver’s spectacular rally has raised the temperature across the entire precious‑metals complex.