Updated: December 5, 2025
Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) remains one of the most closely watched stocks in global markets as investors weigh eye‑popping growth in obesity and diabetes drugs against equally eye‑popping valuations and rising political pressure on drug prices.
On December 5, 2025, Lilly shares are trading just above the $1,000 mark after recently touching an historic $1 trillion market capitalization, the first time a healthcare company has reached that milestone. [1] At the same time, the company is cutting prices on flagship obesity drug Zepbound, navigating new U.S. “most‑favored‑nation” pricing rules, and preparing to ask regulators for accelerated approval of a weight‑loss pill that could reshape the market again. [2]
Here’s a deep dive into where Lilly’s stock stands today, what the latest news means, and how Wall Street is positioning around LLY.
1. Where Eli Lilly’s Stock Stands on 5 December 2025
Price and recent performance
- As of mid‑afternoon trading on December 5, 2025, Lilly shares are around $1,018, with an intraday high near $1,027 and a low just above $1,014.
- StockAnalysis data show that Thursday’s session (Dec. 4) saw a close near $1,014.49, down about 1.9% on the day, after trading as low as $1,007.18. [3]
- Over the last week, LLY has pulled back roughly 8%, but it is still up about 12% over the past month, around 30%–35% year to date, and more than 560% over the past five years, depending on the data source. [4]
That kind of performance, plus a four‑digit share price, has even sparked speculation that Lilly could be a candidate for a stock split in 2026, alongside other mega‑cap growth names. [5]
Market capitalization and valuation
- Depending on the day’s price, Lilly’s market cap currently sits in the $900–960 billion range and recently crossed $1 trillion at intraday highs, cementing its status as the most valuable pure‑play healthcare company in the world. [6]
- GuruFocus estimates Lilly’s trailing P/E ratio around 53 and price‑to‑sales near 16, signaling a substantial premium to the broader large‑cap pharma sector, where forward P/E averages around 17x. [7]
- Based on Wall Street’s consensus EPS forecasts compiled by StockAnalysis (2025 EPS of about $24.04 and 2026 EPS of $32.53), Lilly trades at roughly 42× 2025 earnings and low‑30s on 2026 earnings at today’s price – still far above peers. [8]
Dividend profile
Lilly is not a high‑yield story:
- The board recently declared a fourth‑quarter 2025 dividend of $1.50 per share, implying a $6.00 annualized payout. [9]
- At roughly $1,000 per share, that works out to a dividend yield of about 0.6%, similar to the company’s sub‑1% yield in 2024. [10]
Income investors may find the yield modest, but Lilly often appears on “high‑growth dividend” lists thanks to rapid dividend growth and strong free‑cash‑flow coverage. [11]
2. Today’s Big Headlines Around LLY (December 5, 2025)
A wave of fresh research, policy developments and ESG coverage is shaping the narrative around Eli Lilly this week.
Zacks: Lilly as a core large‑cap pharma name
Zacks Equity Research’s latest industry outlook for big pharma, published this morning, highlights Eli Lilly alongside Johnson & Johnson and Sanofi as large drugmakers worth holding as the sector recovers from a sluggish first half of the year. [12]
Key points from that report:
- The large‑cap pharma industry has rebounded in recent months, aided by drug‑pricing deals with the Trump administration that trade price cuts and domestic investments for exemptions from import tariffs. [13]
- Lilly and Novo Nordisk signed similar agreements on their GLP‑1 obesity therapies Zepbound and Wegovy, granting expanded Medicare access in exchange for substantial price reductions and a three‑year tariff exemption. [14]
- Zacks notes that Mounjaro (diabetes) and Zepbound (obesity) have become major top‑line drivers, with demand expected to remain strong into 2026, while newer drugs like Kisunla, Omvoh and Jaypirca add to growth. [15]
- The stock carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and is up roughly 34% year to date, with 2026 EPS estimates revised up from about $30.8 to $33.4 over the past two months. [16]
Trefis: High margins and “3.5% discount”
A December 3 Trefis analysis takes a bullish stance, arguing that LLY “might be a good buy now” because investors are getting unusually high margins at a valuation that is 3.5% cheaper on a price‑to‑sales basis than a year ago. [17]
Highlights from that note:
- LLY is up around 37% year to date but Trefis says the stock is “slightly cheaper” relative to sales than last year. [18]
- In Q3 2025, combined sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound exceeded $10 billion, and Lilly now captures nearly 60% of the U.S. incretin market, with Zepbound holding about 71% share of new obesity prescriptions. [19]
- The team emphasizes Lilly’s operating margin around 43% and recent operating cash‑flow margin above 20%, arguing that these “quality” metrics justify a premium multiple. [20]
Valuation pushback: “Sky‑high P/E” and technicals
Not every fresh analysis is outright bullish:
- A recent Seeking Alpha piece characterizes Lilly as the “GLP‑1 leader” but argues its “sky‑high P/E” makes the stock a clear Hold, reflecting concerns that much of the GLP‑1 boom is already priced in. [21]
- A Yahoo Finance technical note points out that LLY has been trading above both its 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages for about two months, underscoring strong momentum even after recent pullbacks. [22]
- Another Yahoo analysis asks whether it’s “too late” to buy after a five‑year gain of more than 560%, noting that despite an ~8% drop in the last week, the stock remains up double digits over the past month and roughly 30%–plus for 2025. [23]
ESG and access: “Making Healthcare Accessible For All”
Today, Sustainability Magazine published a feature placing Eli Lilly at 55th in its Top 250 World’s Most Sustainable Companies 2025, focusing on the company’s efforts to improve health literacy, expand affordable access to medicines, and reduce its environmental footprint. [24]
Key ESG commitments cited:
- Carbon‑neutral operations by 2030 and sourcing 100% renewable electricity by that date. [25]
- A goal of zero waste to landfill from routine operations; by 2024, 20 of 32 facilities had already reached that, with only about 1.1% of routine waste going to landfill. [26]
- Expanding patient support programs and co‑pay assistance that can reduce monthly out‑of‑pocket costs for eligible patients on select migraine, immunology, diabetes and obesity medicines to below $35. [27]
For investors focused on environmental, social and governance (ESG) metrics, this kind of external recognition adds another pillar to the LLY story.
Ownership trends and institutional confidence
Form 13F‑based headlines continue to show institutions leaning into the trade:
- Guggenheim Capital LLC increased its stake in LLY by about 5.9% in the second quarter. [28]
- Knollwood Investment Advisory and other institutional investors also grew positions, with one filing showing Knollwood lifting its stake by double‑digit percentages. [29]
GuruFocus estimates that roughly 86% of Lilly’s shares are institutionally owned, an unusually high figure that reflects strong professional interest but can also amplify volatility if sentiment shifts. [30]
3. Earnings: A “Beat and Raise” Quarter Powered by GLP‑1s
Lilly’s Q3 2025 report at the end of October remains the financial anchor for most current forecasts.
Q3 2025 by the numbers
According to Lilly’s own release and Reuters reporting:
- Revenue rose 54% year over year to about $17.6 billion, driven primarily by volume growth in Mounjaro and Zepbound. [31]
- Reported EPS climbed to $6.21, while non‑GAAP EPS reached $7.02, well ahead of analyst expectations near $5.69. [32]
- Management raised full‑year 2025 revenue guidance to $63.0–$63.5 billion and non‑GAAP EPS guidance to $23.00–$23.70 per share. [33]
StockAnalysis’ consensus forecast is even higher, with analysts now modeling about $64.2 billion in 2025 revenue (up 42.6% from 2024) and EPS of roughly $24.04, more than doubling from last year. [34]
Zepbound and Mounjaro: From blockbusters to the blockbuster
Multiple sources agree that Lilly’s GLP‑1 franchise has decisively taken the revenue crown in global pharma:
- A STAT News analysis notes that the tirzepatide franchise, sold as Mounjaro (diabetes) and Zepbound (obesity), has overtaken Merck’s Keytruda to become the world’s best‑selling medicine, despite being on the market for only a few years. [35]
- Reuters reports Zepbound Q3 sales of $3.6 billion, beating estimates of $3.23 billion, while Mounjaro delivered $6.5 billion, comfortably above the $5.73 billion the Street was expecting. Zepbound captured about 71% of new U.S. obesity prescriptions by the end of the quarter. [36]
- Roughly three‑quarters of Mounjaro revenue outside the U.S. now comes from people with obesity paying out of pocket, highlighting both demand and affordability challenges. [37]
Analysts increasingly frame the GLP‑1 category as a $150 billion global market by 2030, with Lilly and Novo Nordisk expected to remain the dominant players if they can manage capacity, safety, and pricing. [38]
4. Next Wave: Oral GLP‑1 Pill and Pipeline Expansion
Orforglipron: A potential fast‑track weight‑loss pill
Perhaps the most important “next chapter” catalyst is orforglipron, Lilly’s once‑daily oral GLP‑1 candidate for obesity and type 2 diabetes.
Recent developments:
- In late October, Lilly said orforglipron meets three of four criteria under the FDA’s new “national‑priority voucher” program, making it a strong candidate for significantly accelerated approval, with reviews potentially shortened to 1–2 months instead of 10–12. [39]
- Lilly plans to submit its full review package to the FDA this quarter and file regulatory applications globally after multiple successful Phase 3 trials. [40]
- Late‑stage data show patients on orforglipron lost around 12% of body weight, placing it in the same performance neighborhood as injectable GLP‑1 drugs while offering the convenience of a pill. [41]
Zacks highlights orforglipron and retatrutide (a triple‑agonist in development) as key assets in Lilly’s plan to widen its obesity franchise beyond injectables. [42]
M&A and diversification: The Adverum bet
Lilly is also using its GLP‑1 cash flows to buy future growth:
- On December 1, Lilly launched a tender offer to acquire Adverum Biotechnologies, an ocular gene therapy developer. The deal offers $3.56 per share in cash plus a contingent value right worth up to $8.91 per share if milestones are met, implying potential value of $12.47 per share. [43]
- Lilly has already extended Adverum a $40 million loan, with an obligation to provide another $25 million, on relatively high interest terms – underscoring both its balance‑sheet strength and the risk for Adverum if the transaction fails. [44]
- The move fits with Lilly’s push into ophthalmology and gene therapy and has been cited in industry coverage as a key example of how the company is preparing for life after the GLP‑1 boom. [45]
Lilly’s pipeline beyond GLP‑1 already includes newly launched or recently approved drugs in Alzheimer’s disease (Kisunla), immunology (Omvoh), and oncology (Jaypirca), which Zacks expects to contribute increasingly to top‑line growth over the next few years. [46]
5. Pricing, Politics and Regulation: The New Risk–Reward Equation
The fundamental story can’t be separated from a rapidly evolving regulatory backdrop.
Trump’s “Most‑Favored‑Nation” (MFN) pricing deal
On November 6, 2025, the White House announced a sweeping Most‑Favored‑Nation drug pricing framework that includes direct agreements with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. [47]
Key pieces affecting Lilly:
- Under the TrumpRx program, Zepbound and orforglipron (if approved) will see U.S. prices fall from about $1,086 per month to an average of $346 for participating patients. [48]
- Medicare prices for Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro, and Zepbound will be $245 per month, less than half of levels proposed by the previous administration. State Medicaid programs will access those prices as well. [49]
- For the first time, Medicare will cover Wegovy and Zepbound for patients with obesity and related comorbidities, with beneficiary co‑pays capped around $50 per month. [50]
The trade‑off: potentially lower margins on GLP‑1 products in exchange for vastly expanded covered populations, especially among older Americans. The net impact on earnings will depend on how volume responds to lower patient costs and how aggressively payers manage use.
Company‑led price cuts on Zepbound
Even before the MFN announcement, Lilly moved to cut Zepbound’s price for self‑pay patients:
- From December 1, Lilly’s Self Pay Journey Program lowered the monthly price of the 2.5 mg Zepbound vial to $299 (from $349), the 5 mg to $399 (from $499), and higher doses to $449 (from $499). [51]
- The move follows earlier list‑price cuts to Zepbound multi‑dose pens and is aimed at easing affordability barriers as demand continues to exceed supply. [52]
Combined with TrumpRx pricing and Lilly’s own copay assistance, these steps highlight how pricing power is increasingly constrained, even in a category with extraordinary demand.
WHO guidance and FDA scrutiny
- The World Health Organization issued its first‑ever guidelines on GLP‑1 medicines for obesity this week, recommending long‑term, continuous use of drugs such as semaglutide and tirzepatide when clinically appropriate. [53]
- On one hand, that legitimizes GLP‑1s as chronic treatments, supporting a durable revenue stream.
- On the other, it may sharpen scrutiny on long‑term safety, equity of access, and health‑system costs.
- In September, the U.S. FDA sent Lilly a warning letter criticizing a high‑profile video (a 42‑minute Oprah Winfrey special) for allegedly downplaying the serious risks of GLP‑1 drugs like Zepbound and Mounjaro and presenting them primarily as weight‑loss tools. [54]
Together, these moves underscore the regulatory risk that accompanies category‑defining growth.
6. Wall Street Forecasts and Price Targets
Despite valuation worries, the Street remains broadly constructive on LLY.
Consensus ratings
- MarketBeat aggregates 26 analyst ratings and characterizes the stock as a “Moderate Buy” with:
- 0 Sells, 6 Holds, 17 Buys and 3 Strong Buys.
- An average 12‑month price target of $1,087.32, implying about 7% upside from roughly $1,013 reference price used in the model, with a range from $800 to $1,300. [55]
- StockAnalysis, using a somewhat different universe of 18 analysts, lists LLY as a “Strong Buy”, with:
- An average price target around $1,063, roughly 5% above current levels.
- A high target of $1,500 and a low of $700, reflecting meaningful disagreement on how long GLP‑1 growth and pricing can hold up. [56]
Recent target hikes
Several firms have been racing to lift their price objectives:
- BMO Capital raised its target from $1,100 to $1,200, maintaining an Outperform rating and noting Lilly’s “massive” market cap near $925 billion and proximity to its $1,111.99 52‑week high. [57]
- Morgan Stanley nudged its target from $1,171 to $1,290; Bernstein from $1,100 to $1,300; and Truist from $1,038 to $1,182, keeping a Strong Buy stance. [58]
- J.P. Morgan recently moved from $1,050 to $1,150 and continues to emphasize the strength of Lilly’s GLP‑1 portfolio. [59]
At the same time, more valuation‑sensitive voices (like the Seeking Alpha “Hold” call) warn that at 40–50× earnings, LLY is priced for near‑perfection. [60]
7. Financial Quality: Growth, Margins and Balance Sheet
Outside of GLP‑1 demand, Lilly’s fundamentals help explain why investors have been willing to pay such a premium.
From GuruFocus, Trefis and analyst data:
- Growth
- Three‑year revenue growth in the high‑teens to low‑20s percent range, accelerating to ~40%+ in 2025 as GLP‑1s ramp. [61]
- Profitability
- Net margin around 31%, operating margin in the mid‑40% range, and last‑twelve‑month operating cash‑flow margin above 20% – all far above typical large‑pharma levels. [62]
- Balance sheet & risk metrics
- Current ratio around 1.5 and debt‑to‑equity near 1.8, indicating significant but manageable leverage.
- An Altman Z‑Score above 8, suggesting very low near‑term bankruptcy risk, and a beta near 0.3, meaning historically lower volatility versus the broader market. [63]
For quality‑focused investors, this is almost a textbook “compounder” profile – which is precisely the argument Trefis and other bulls make when they call the stock slightly undervalued despite a headline P/E above 50. [64]
8. Key Bull and Bear Arguments Right Now
The bull case (in brief)
Supportive research and recent news flow emphasize:
- Category leadership in a massive new market
Lilly’s tirzepatide franchise has become the world’s top‑selling medicine and dominates U.S. incretin prescriptions, in a market some project will be worth $150 billion annually by decade’s end. [65] - Durable growth profile
Consensus models call for ~40% revenue growth in 2025 and nearly 20% in 2026, with EPS more than doubling vs. 2024 before rising another ~35% the following year. [66] - Pipeline and M&A beyond GLP‑1
New launches in Alzheimer’s, oncology and immunology, plus deals like the Adverum acquisition, give Lilly multiple shots at diversifying beyond weight‑loss drugs. [67] - ESG and reputational strength
Recognition as one of the Top 250 sustainable companies and explicit commitments to access and health literacy support a long‑term “durable franchise” narrative, especially for ESG‑screened funds. [68] - Balance sheet and institutional sponsorship
Strong cash generation, solid credit metrics, and very high institutional ownership suggest the company has ample capital to fund R&D, manufacturing expansion and shareholder returns. [69]
The bear case (in brief)
More cautious analysts and commentators point to several risks:
- Extreme valuation
LLY trades at trailing P/E above 50 and forward multiples in the 30s to low‑40s, versus a large‑cap pharma sector that averages mid‑teens. Even modest disappointments on pricing, safety or competition could compress the multiple significantly. [70] - Pricing and political overhang
TrumpRx MFN deals, direct price cuts on Zepbound, and broader global pressure on GLP‑1 prices may limit margin expansion, even as volume grows. Investors effectively have to believe that “more patients at lower prices” is enough to keep earnings on an explosive trajectory. [71] - Category and concentration risk
A large share of Lilly’s current and projected profits comes from a single therapeutic class (GLP‑1s) and a single molecule (tirzepatide). Any long‑term safety signals, new competition, or disruptive generics/biosimilars could be painful. [72] - Regulatory and marketing scrutiny
The FDA’s obesity‑drug warning letter and WHO’s new GLP‑1 guidance suggest regulators are attuned to both safety and responsible promotion, which could lead to tighter labels, monitoring requirements, or advertising constraints. [73] - Execution on manufacturing and supply
Meeting global demand for GLP‑1 injectables and a future oral pill requires massive manufacturing expansion. Delays, supply bottlenecks, or quality issues would not be surprising in a business scaling this fast, even if they prove temporary.
9. What It All Means for Investors (Not Financial Advice)
As of December 5, 2025, Eli Lilly’s stock sits at the intersection of:
- Exceptional growth and profitability, powered by category‑defining GLP‑1 drugs and a deepening pipeline.
- Exceptional expectations, reflected in premium valuations, a near‑trillion‑dollar market cap, and price targets that mostly imply mid‑single‑digit percentage upside from here. [74]
For growth‑oriented, long‑term investors, Lilly represents a rare combination of:
- A huge, underpenetrated global market (obesity and metabolic disease);
- A clear competitive edge (tirzepatide leadership); and
- Strong balance‑sheet and ESG credentials.
For valuation‑sensitive or risk‑averse investors, the stock may look “priced for perfection”, with significant sensitivity to policy shifts, pricing negotiations, or any negative surprises in GLP‑1 safety or efficacy data.
As always, any decision to buy, hold, or sell should consider:
- Your risk tolerance and time horizon;
- How concentrated you want to be in a single therapeutic theme (GLP‑1/obesity); and
- The role you want a high‑growth, high‑valuation mega‑cap to play in your broader portfolio.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, tax, or medical advice.
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