Exxon Mobil (XOM) Stock in December 2025: Dividend Giant Balances Oil Growth, Hydrogen Pause and New Projects

Updated: December 6, 2025

Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) heads into the final weeks of 2025 trading near the top of its 52‑week range, backed by record production in Guyana and the Permian Basin, a 43‑year dividend growth streak, and a wave of new analyst price targets. At the same time, the company is tightening its petrochemical footprint, pausing a flagship blue hydrogen project, and positioning for future barrels in Iraq and U.S. midstream infrastructure. ^[1]

Below is a detailed look at the latest Exxon Mobil stock news, forecasts and analysis as of December 6, 2025, suitable for Google News and Discover readers.

1. XOM stock snapshot as of December 6, 2025

As of the close on Friday, December 5, 2025, Exxon Mobil shares traded around $116–117 per share, down slightly on the day but still near their 52‑week high of about $120.81. Over the past year, the stock has ranged from roughly $97.80 to $120.81. ^[2]

At this level:

Market capitalization: ≈ $490–495 billion
Trailing P/E ratio: ~16–17x earnings
Forward annual dividend:$4.12 per share (quarterly dividend of $1.03)
Dividend yield: roughly 3.5% on the recent share price ^[3]

Valuation multiples put Exxon at a premium to many traditional integrated oil peers, reflecting its balance sheet strength, low-cost resource base in Guyana and the Permian, and a reputation for disciplined capital allocation. ^[4]

2. Fresh headlines moving Exxon Mobil in early December 2025

2.1 Institutional buying shows continued confidence

New 13F filings published on December 6 highlight incremental institutional support:

Shepherd Financial Partners LLC boosted its Exxon stake by 142.5% in Q2, buying 9,588 shares to reach 16,316 shares worth about $1.76 million. ^[5]
Stenger Family Office LLC disclosed a new position of 129,553 XOM shares (~$14.5 million), making Exxon about 3.3% of its portfolio and its 7th‑largest holding. ^[6]
Nkcfo LLC opened a position of 25,100 shares (≈$2.7 million), about 1.1% of its holdings. ^[7]

While these positions are small relative to Exxon’s size, they underscore a broader pattern: roughly 60–65% of Exxon’s float is in institutional hands, and recent filings show more incremental buyers than sellers. ^[8]

2.2 Petrochemicals: Singapore cracker closure signals industry stress

One of the newest headlines is decidedly negative for the global petrochemical sector: Exxon will permanently shut the older of its two steam crackers on Singapore’s Jurong Island starting March 2026, with closure expected by June. ^[9]

Key details:

The targeted cracker began operations in 2002, and has become uncompetitive amid a global overcapacity of ethylene and related products, much of it driven by new Chinese plants. ^[10]
Exxon has already reduced term contract volumes to customers in Singapore and will likely cut naphtha imports further after shutting the unit. ^[11]
The company previously announced it would cut 10–15% of its Singapore workforce by 2027 and has sold its local fuels retail business, while still investing in new refining units at its 592,000 bpd Singapore refinery. ^[12]

Just weeks earlier, Exxon also said it will close its Fife Ethylene Plant (FEP) in Scotland by February 2026 due to high costs and weak margins in Europe’s chemicals industry. ^[13]

For investors, these moves are a double‑edged sword:

Negative: they highlight weak global petrochem margins and structural overcapacity, which have been a drag on Exxon’s Chemical Products earnings in 2025. ^[14]
Positive: they also show capital discipline—Exxon is willing to shut older, high‑cost assets and reallocate capital toward advantaged sites like its new Huizhou complex in China and U.S. Gulf Coast operations. ^[15]

2.3 Upstream growth: Guyana, the Permian and a potential big move in Iraq

Guyana remains the star of Exxon’s growth story. In September, the company approved a $6.8 billion investment in the Hammerhead project, its seventh development in the prolific Stabroek Block offshore Guyana. ^[16]

Hammerhead is expected to start production in 2029 with capacity of around 150,000 barrels per day, contributing to the joint venture’s goal of 1.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) by 2030. ^[17]
With record output from earlier projects like Liza, Payara and Yellowtail, Guyana volumes were a key driver behind Exxon’s record upstream production levels in the third quarter. ^[18]

In the Permian Basin, Exxon is aggressively scaling after its 2024 Pioneer Natural Resources acquisition. The company has outlined a path to around 2 million boe/d by 2027 from the combined Permian position, up from roughly 1.3 million boe/d in 2023, supported by further acreage additions and infrastructure investments. TechStock²+2BOE Report+2

A major new geopolitical angle emerged this week:

Exxon has approached Iraq’s oil ministry to express interest in buying Lukoil’s ~75% operating stake in the giant West Qurna 2 oilfield, one of the world’s largest, producing about 470,000 bpd and accounting for roughly 9% of Iraq’s output. ^[19]
U.S. sanctions on Lukoil are forcing it to consider divesting international assets. Washington has temporarily allowed negotiations until December 13, but any deal would require case‑by‑case approval. ^[20]
Iraqi officials have signalled they would welcome Exxon’s return after its earlier exit from neighboring West Qurna 1, citing the supermajor’s experience with complex megaprojects. ^[21]

If Exxon ultimately secures a stake in West Qurna 2, it would deepen the company’s exposure to low‑cost Middle Eastern barrels, but also add political and security risk that investors will need to weigh.

2.4 Midstream & LNG: locking in long‑term cash flows

On November 20, Exxon announced a deal to acquire a 40% stake in Enterprise Products Partners’ Bahia natural gas liquids (NGL) pipeline. ^[22]

The 550‑mile Bahia system is being commissioned to move 600,000 barrels per day of NGLs from the Permian to Enterprise’s Mont Belvieu hub in Texas.
With Exxon joining as a partner, capacity is set to rise to 1 million bpd via added pumping stations and a 92‑mile “Cowboy Connector” extension to Exxon’s Cowboy gas processing plant in New Mexico, slated for completion around 2027. ^[23]

This midstream move dovetails with Exxon’s plan to grow Permian liquids and gas volumes and helps secure low‑cost takeaway for decades, supporting both earnings visibility and optionality for future petrochemical or export projects.

In LNG, the Golden Pass export terminal in Texas—70% owned by QatarEnergy and 30% by Exxon—is nearing completion. In March, U.S. regulators granted an extension allowing LNG exports from the facility to non‑FTA countries, with initial shipments expected as early as late 2025. The project will have capacity of up to 2.57 billion cubic feet per day, reinforcing Exxon’s position in the global gas trade. ^[24]

2.5 Energy transition: blue hydrogen pause and a slower lithium runway

Perhaps the most controversial recent headline is Exxon’s decision to freeze plans for what would have been one of the world’s largest low‑carbon hydrogen plants at its Baytown complex in Texas. ^[25]

The proposed “blue hydrogen” facility was designed to produce up to 1 billion cubic feet per day of hydrogen from natural gas, capturing and storing the bulk of associated CO₂. ^[26]
CEO Darren Woods said Exxon could not find enough customers willing to sign long‑term contracts at prices that justify the multibillion‑dollar investment, especially after a $300+ million U.S. government grant was withdrawn and amid industrial demand softness in Europe. ^[27]

The pause highlights a broader issue: many low‑carbon projects are policy‑driven and capital‑intensive, but customers are still reluctant to pay a premium over conventional fuels. For shareholders, suspending Baytown limits near‑term cash burn, but also tempers Exxon’s storyline as a hydrogen leader.

On lithium, Exxon is pursuing direct lithium extraction (DLE) from brines in Arkansas’ Smackover formation, but timelines are stretching:

Earlier, the company had targeted mid-decade production, yet recent industry coverage indicates Exxon has pushed its commercial start toward 2028, reflecting weak lithium prices and DLE scale‑up challenges. ^[28]
Reuters has reported that Exxon has secured large acreage positions in Arkansas and has been drilling test wells and evaluating DLE technologies since 2023. ^[29]

Taken together, the hydrogen pause and slow lithium ramp show Exxon is keeping one foot firmly in hydrocarbons while moving more cautiously in capital‑intensive transition bets.

3. Financial performance: 2025 earnings and cash flows at a glance

3.1 Q1–Q3 2025 results

Across the first three quarters of 2025, Exxon has delivered robust profitability and cash generation, though earnings are running below 2024 levels due to softer commodity prices:

Q1 2025:
- Earnings: $7.7 billion (EPS $1.76)
- Cash flow from operations (CFO): $13.0 billion
- Free cash flow (FCF): $8.8 billion
- Shareholder distributions: $9.1 billion (≈$4.3B dividends + $4.8B buybacks) ^[30]
Q2 2025:
- Earnings: $7.1 billion (EPS $1.64)
- CFO: $11.5 billion
- FCF: $5.4 billion
- Distributions: $9.2 billion (≈$4.3B dividends + $5.0B buybacks) ^[31]
Q3 2025:
- Earnings: $7.5 billion (EPS $1.76)
- CFO: $14.8 billion
- FCF: $6.3 billion
- Distributions: $9.4 billion (≈$4.2B dividends + $5.1B buybacks) ^[32]

Year‑to‑date, that adds up to earnings of about $22.3 billion, down from $26.1 billion in the same period of 2024, largely because Brent crude prices have slipped into the low‑to‑mid $60s per barrel versus higher averages last year. ^[33]

Still, Exxon continues to generate tens of billions in free cash flow, enough to fund its capital spending and aggressive shareholder distributions without stressing the balance sheet. Structural cost‑savings programs have delivered about $14 billion in annualized savings since 2019, with management targeting more than $18 billion by 2030. TechStock²+2BOE Report+2

3.2 Dividend power and buyback firepower

Exxon has just extended one of the energy sector’s most prized streaks:

In October, the board increased the quarterly dividend to $1.03 per share, up from $0.99—a roughly 4% raise—payable on December 10, 2025 to shareholders of record on November 14. ^[34]
This marks 43 consecutive years of annual dividend increases, placing Exxon among the industry’s longest‑tenured dividend growers. ^[35]

Across the first three quarters of 2025, Exxon has returned around $27–28 billion to shareholders via dividends and buybacks, closely mirroring the roughly $36 billion it returned in 2024, which was fully covered by that year’s $34.4 billion in free cash flow when adjusted for working capital. ^[36]

For income‑oriented investors, the 3.5% yield combined with steady dividend growth and buybacks worth several percent of market cap annually remains a core part of the Exxon investment case.

4. Analyst forecasts and valuation outlook for XOM

4.1 Wall Street rating and price targets

Across major research houses, Exxon Mobil is currently viewed as a Buy / Moderate Buy:

MarketBeat tracks 20 analysts with a “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average 12‑month price target of $128.67, implying about 10.4% upside from roughly $116.5 per share. High and low targets stand at $156 and $105, respectively. ^[37]
StockAnalysis.com aggregates 16 analysts who rate Exxon a “Buy” with an average target of $129.50 (+11.1% upside). ^[38]

Recent high‑profile moves:

UBS assumed or reiterated coverage with a Buy rating and a $145 price target, implying mid‑20% upside. ^[39]
Piper Sandler maintains a Buy rating and raised its target to around $144.
Scotiabank has a Buy rating with a target as high as $155, and Wells Fargo recently initiated with an Overweight/Buy at $156. ^[40]

Taken together, these targets cluster in the $128–$156 range, suggesting analysts see modest double‑digit upside over 12 months, assuming oil prices remain in a band around the low‑to‑mid $60s per barrel and Exxon continues executing its growth projects. ^[41]

4.2 Earnings and revenue forecasts

Consensus forecasts compiled by StockAnalysis show a picture of flat to slightly declining revenue but improving earnings as cost savings and mix shift offset softer prices: ^[42]

Revenue 2025: ~$332.8 billion (‑2.3% vs 2024)
Revenue 2026: ~$331.4 billion (‑0.4% vs 2025)
EPS 2025: ~$6.91 (‑11.8% vs 2024’s $7.84)
EPS 2026: ~$7.47 (+8.1% vs 2025)

In other words, analysts broadly expect lower top‑line due to a more subdued commodity price environment, but higher per‑share earnings as higher‑margin barrels from Guyana and the Permian ramp and share count shrinks via buybacks.

Simply Wall St’s narrative‑based model projects revenue of about $338 billion and earnings of $39.7 billion by 2028, implying modest revenue contraction but higher absolute profits. Their discounted cash flow framework currently pegs Exxon’s fair value around $128.72 per share, roughly 10% above recent prices. ^[43]

While fair value estimates vary widely—from about $124 up into the $150s—most mainstream models cluster near current trading levels plus a single‑digit to low‑double‑digit premium, consistent with the broader analyst price target range. ^[44]

5. Macro backdrop: oil price path and what it means for Exxon

Exxon’s fortunes are still heavily tied to oil and gas prices, even as it expands downstream and lower‑carbon projects.

Recent data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and U.S. energy agencies suggests:

Brent crude has traded recently in the low‑to‑mid $60s per barrel, down from higher levels in 2023–2024. ^[45]
Base‑case forecasts for 2026 often assume oil prices in the high‑$50s to low‑$60s range, with modest demand growth offset by increased supply from OPEC+, U.S. shale and other sources. ^[46]

In April and May 2025, Exxon’s own guidance highlighted how a $10–15 per barrel swing in Brent and changes in gas prices can move quarterly earnings by billions of dollars. ^[47]

For investors, the implication is clear: even with cost reductions and high‑quality assets, Exxon remains highly sensitive to commodity cycles, and any recession, demand shock or policy shift that pushes oil prices lower could pressure earnings, cash flow and buyback capacity.

6. Key opportunities and risks for Exxon Mobil stock

6.1 Bullish pillars

World‑class low‑cost resource base
- Guyana and the Permian give Exxon decades of high‑margin barrels with breakeven prices well below current oil levels, supporting resilience through cycles. ^[48]
Capital discipline and portfolio high‑grading
- Shutting loss‑making crackers in Singapore and Scotland, while adding stakes in infrastructure like the Bahia pipeline, suggests management is willing to prune weak assets and double down on advantaged ones. ^[49]
Shareholder returns
- A 43‑year dividend growth streak, a 3.5% yield, and annualized total distributions in the $30+ billion range position Exxon as a core income and total‑return holding for many institutions. ^[50]
Strong balance sheet
- Years of elevated cash generation and measured leverage give Exxon flexibility to fund capex, buybacks and opportunistic acquisitions (such as a potential West Qurna 2 stake) without jeopardizing its credit profile. ^[51]
Analyst support and upside to targets
- Consensus Buy/Moderate Buy ratings and average price targets 10–11% above current levels, with some bullish targets in the mid‑$140s to mid‑$150s, reflect expectations for continued EPS growth and cash returns. ^[52]

6.2 Main risks to watch

Commodity price downside
A deeper‑than‑expected global slowdown or policy shocks could push oil and gas prices below the levels embedded in current forecasts, hitting upstream earnings and slowing buybacks. ^[53]
Execution and cost inflation on megaprojects
Projects like Hammerhead, Whiptail and Golden Pass LNG require multi‑year, multibillion‑dollar spending. Delays, overruns or technical issues could dilute returns. ^[54]
Chemical downturn
Weak petrochemical margins have already forced plant closures in Singapore and Scotland. If overcapacity persists, Chemical Products could remain a drag on consolidated earnings. ^[55]
Energy transition and policy risk
The pause of the Baytown hydrogen project and slower lithium timelines show how dependent many transition projects are on subsidies and customer willingness to pay. Rapid policy changes, carbon pricing, or demand shifts toward electrification could affect long‑term oil demand and Exxon’s social license to operate. ^[56]
Geopolitical exposure
Expansion in Iraq’s West Qurna 2 field would enhance reserves but comes with instability and sanctions risk tied to Russian counterparties. Guyana, while currently stable, is also a small country with evolving regulatory and political frameworks. ^[57]
Shareholder and regulatory scrutiny
Exxon has faced high‑profile climate lawsuits and activist pressure in recent years; any adverse judgments or forced policy changes could lead to higher costs or stranded asset concerns, affecting valuation multiples. (This risk is widely discussed across legal and ESG coverage, even if not tied to a single December 2025 headline.)

7. What all of this means for XOM heading into 2026

Putting the latest news and forecasts together, the current Exxon Mobil story looks like this:

The core hydrocarbon engine is strong: record Guyana and Permian production, potential new barrels in Iraq, and enhanced midstream capacity in the U.S. provide a multi‑year growth runway for cash‑generating barrels and molecules. ^[58]
The company is pruning lower‑return legacy assets, especially in petrochemicals, to protect margins in a weak chemicals cycle. ^[59]
Its low‑carbon strategy is being recalibrated, not abandoned: Baytown hydrogen is on ice, lithium is moving slower, but Exxon continues to invest selectively in carbon capture, hydrogen pilots and DLE where economics can work. ^[60]
The dividend and buyback program remain at the center of the shareholder proposition, with a long history of growth and coverage from free cash flow even in a lower‑price environment. ^[61]
Valuation is not distressed: at ~16–17x this year’s earnings and around 11–12x 2026 consensus EPS, with a dividend yield near 3.5%, Exxon trades more like a high‑quality, cash‑rich industrial than a deeply cyclical commodity stock. ^[62]

For investors considering XOM at today’s levels, the central question is whether you believe Exxon’s advantaged barrels and capital discipline can offset a softer, more volatile oil price world while it carefully cherry‑picks profitable transition projects.

If oil stabilizes around current forecasts and management continues to execute on cost cuts and high‑return projects, Wall Street’s outlook of mid‑single‑digit dividend growth plus a few percentage points of buyback‑driven EPS growth appears achievable, supporting total returns in line with or slightly above the broader market over the medium term. ^[63]

Important note: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.