Published: December 7, 2025
Nike’s stock has had a choppy 2025, and as of early December the story is less about sneakers and more about strategy: a leadership overhaul, pressure in China, a fresh dividend increase and a market still trying to decide whether NKE is a turnaround play or a value trap.
Nike (NKE) Stock Price Snapshot Today
Nike’s Class B shares (ticker: NKE) are trading around $65.86 per share, giving the company a market capitalization of roughly $97 billion. [1]
Key snapshot metrics as of this week:
- Share price: ~$65.9
- 52‑week range: about $52.28 – $82.44, leaving the stock well below its 1‑year high. [2]
- P/E ratio: around 33–34x trailing earnings. [3]
- Dividend yield: roughly 2.4–2.5%, depending on the intraday price. [4]
According to Zacks, the stock is down about 11% over the last three months, as investors wrestle with a digital slowdown and margin pressure, even after a modest recent bounce. [5]
Fresh Headlines Moving NKE in Early December 2025
1. Senior leadership shake‑up to accelerate “Win Now” actions
On December 2, Nike announced significant senior leadership changes aimed at speeding up its “Win Now” turnaround plan. The company is:
- Elevating a Chief Operating Officer (COO) role.
- Bringing its four geography leaders (North America, EMEA, Greater China, APLA) directly into the top leadership team.
- Moving Global Sales and Nike Direct under CFO Matt Friend to integrate financial and commercial decisions more tightly. [6]
Management framed the move as a way to eliminate layers, simplify decision-making, and align product, brand and regional execution more closely. For investors, this is a classic “execution risk vs. upside” moment: restructurings can improve agility, but they can also create short‑term disruption if the new structure takes time to bed in.
Simply Wall St picked up on the shake‑up and noted that the leadership changes could alter the investment case for NKE, depending on whether they unlock faster growth and better margins or simply rearrange the org chart. [7]
2. UK ad watchdog bans Nike sustainability ads for “greenwashing”
This week also brought a reputational knock. The UK’s Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) banned Google ads from Nike, Lacoste and Superdry for misleading environmental claims, ruling that the brands overstated the sustainability of certain clothing without enough evidence. [8]
Nike’s ad highlighted “sustainable materials” in tennis polo shirts but, according to the ASA, didn’t provide sufficient substantiation. While this does not directly hit earnings, it underscores two investor‑relevant themes:
- Regulatory risk around sustainability marketing is rising.
- Nike’s brand equity increasingly depends on the credibility of its climate and materials claims, especially with younger consumers.
For ESG‑sensitive investors, this kind of ruling is a warning sign to watch Nike’s environmental disclosures and product labeling more closely over time.
3. Greater China sales fall 10% – a key growth engine under strain
On November 27, Zacks highlighted that Nike’s Greater China sales fell about 10%, raising questions about how well its “global playbook” can offset weakness in a historically critical growth region. [9]
The piece emphasized:
- Ongoing structural challenges in the Chinese marketplace.
- The need for sport‑led innovations and refreshed retail environments to reconnect with consumers.
- The risk that China remains a drag even as other regions stabilize.
Nike itself has acknowledged that Greater China and parts of its Sportswear business are under pressure, even as categories like Running and regions like North America show better momentum. [10]
4. “Stock falls 11% in 3 months: buy opportunity or value trap?”
On December 4, a widely circulated Zacks article framed Nike’s recent performance bluntly: “NIKE Stock Falls 11% in 3 Months: A Buy Opportunity or Value Trap?” [11]
The key themes in that analysis:
- Digital slowdown: Nike Direct and Nike Digital have been shrinking rather than leading growth.
- Margin strain: Promotions, higher product costs and tariffs are compressing gross margins.
- Turnaround uncertainty: Investors must decide whether current weakness is a cyclical reset or evidence that Nike’s high‑growth era is fading.
This “crossroads” framing is now common in market commentary on NKE.
Earnings Picture: From Fiscal 2025 Slump to a Tentative Stabilization
Fiscal 2025: Revenue and profit both declined
Nike’s fiscal 2025 (year ended May 31, 2025) was clearly a down year:
- Full‑year revenue:$46.3 billion, down 10% year‑on‑year.
- Nike Brand revenue:$44.7 billion, down 9%, with declines across all geographies.
- Nike Direct revenue:$18.8 billion, down 13%, driven by a 20% drop in digital while stores were roughly flat.
- Wholesale revenue:$25.9 billion, down 7%.
- Converse revenue: down 19%.
- Gross margin: down from 44.6% to 42.7%.
- Net income:$3.2 billion, down 44%, with diluted EPS down about 42% to $2.16. [12]
The message: Nike entered its turnaround phase from a position of shrinking revenue, pressured margins and falling profit, not just a temporary hiccup.
Latest reported quarter: modest revenue growth, weaker profitability
The most recent reported quarter (fiscal Q1 2026, reported October 1, 2025) showed stabilization at the top line but ongoing margin and mix challenges:
- Revenue: about $11.7 billion, up ~1% year‑on‑year. [13]
- Net income: ~$727 million, down around 31% versus the prior year. [14]
- EPS:$0.49, beating analyst expectations but well below last year’s $0.70. [15]
- Wholesale revenue: up mid‑single to high‑single digits, a clear bright spot. [16]
- Nike Direct / digital: declining, with Nike Digital down double digits and stores slightly negative or flat, depending on region. [17]
- Gross margin: around 42.2%, down roughly 320 basis points year‑on‑year, hurt by heavy discounting, a richer wholesale mix and new tariffs. [18]
On the call, management guided to low‑single‑digit revenue declines and a 300–375 basis point gross‑margin headwind in the following quarter, largely due to tariffs and continued promotional intensity. [19]
The next earnings release is scheduled for December 18, 2025, making NKE a name to watch closely for short‑term traders. [20]
Dividend and Capital Returns: Quiet but Consistent Support
Despite the earnings slump, Nike has continued to reward shareholders with growing dividends:
- Fiscal 2025 dividends per share rose from $1.45 to $1.57. [21]
- More recently, Nike raised its quarterly dividend from $0.40 to $0.41, marking roughly the 24th consecutive year of dividend increases. [22]
- Current forward dividends are estimated around $1.61–$1.65 per share, implying a yield in the 2.4–2.5% range at today’s price. [23]
For long‑term, income‑oriented investors, that track record is a modest but notable anchor to total return.
What Are Analysts Expecting From NKE Now?
Consensus ratings: mostly positive, but not euphoric
Across multiple data providers, analysts remain broadly constructive:
- MarketBeat:
- 36 analysts over the past 12 months.
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy.”
- Mix: 1 sell, 6 hold, 26 buy, 3 strong buy.
- Average 12‑month price target:$82.24, implying about 24.8% upside from roughly $65.90. [24]
- StockAnalysis:
- 24 analysts covering NKE.
- Consensus rating: “Buy.”
- Average target:$83.17, about 26% upside; low target $68, high $115. [25]
- GrowthInvesting.net (December 2025 monthly update):
- 34 analysts in its dataset.
- Average target:$84.00, with a highest target near $120 and lowest around $38.
- Implied upside from current levels: roughly 27–28%. [26]
- Public.com’s aggregation:
- Analyst consensus rating summarized as “Buy.”
- Target price about $84.24.
- Rating breakdown: ~44% strong buy, 32% buy, 24% hold. [27]
The pattern is clear: Wall Street expects mid‑20s percentage upside over the next year, but the wide target range (from high‑$60s to above $110) shows very different views on how fast Nike can repair growth and margins.
Valuation Check: Fairly Priced, Undervalued, or Overvalued?
Different analysis frameworks are currently giving conflicting signals on NKE’s valuation.
Discounted cash flow and PE‑based views
Simply Wall St’s December 2025 breakdown reaches mixed conclusions: [28]
- A DCF (discounted cash flow) model pegs Nike’s intrinsic value around $62 per share, only slightly below today’s price – suggesting NKE is roughly fairly valued on conservative cash‑flow assumptions.
- On a price‑to‑earnings basis, Nike trades on a P/E of about 33.6x, above an industry average near 21.5x and ahead of its athletic‑peer group, which clusters closer to 30x.
- Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” suggests Nike’s valuation multiple should be around 27.9x based on its growth profile and risk, implying some multiple premium is still baked into the stock.
From that lens, NKE looks a bit expensive relative to its fundamentals, unless investors believe a strong acceleration in earnings is coming.
GuruFocus and GF Value: modest to significant undervaluation
GuruFocus uses its own GF Value metric and currently comes to a different conclusion: [29]
- When director Jorgen Knudstorp bought 16,150 shares on November 7 at about $62.09, GuruFocus calculated a GF Value near $88.58, implying the stock was significantly undervalued at that price.
- After the October earnings jump, another GuruFocus piece estimated a GF Value around $93.36 when the stock traded near $74, labelling NKE “modestly undervalued” at that level.
These models implicitly assume that Nike’s brand strength and long‑term earnings power justify a higher multiple than current earnings alone might suggest.
Insider activity
Knudstorp’s November purchase stands out because: [30]
- It was his first insider buy in the past year.
- Over the last 12 months, there have been more insider sales than buys at Nike, so a sizable director purchase is notable.
Insider buys are not guarantees of future gains, but they are often read as a signal of internal confidence that the market is underpricing long‑term value.
Key Risks and Themes to Watch
Recent data and commentary highlight several key risk areas for NKE:
- Digital and Direct‑to‑Consumer Weakness
Nike once pitched its digital pivot as the growth engine of the future. Instead, Nike Direct and Nike Digital have been shrinking, while wholesale has re‑emerged as the growth driver. [31]
That shift may pressure margins and brand control. - Greater China Slowdown
A 10% sales drop in Greater China is a serious concern for a region that was supposed to be a long‑term growth pillar. If the “global playbook” fails to stabilize demand there, Nike’s overall growth algorithm will remain constrained. [32] - Tariffs and Promotional Intensity
New reciprocal tariffs and elevated promotions are cutting into gross margins. Nike expects tariffs alone to be a meaningful headwind to fiscal 2026 gross margin, adding to discounting pressure in an increasingly competitive sportswear market. [33] - Regulatory and ESG Scrutiny
The “greenwashing” ruling in the UK is a reminder that environmental claims are under the microscope. Future missteps could hit both reputation and, in a worst case, access to certain markets or campaigns. [34] - Execution of the Leadership Overhaul
The new leadership structure is designed to speed up Nike’s “Win Now” plan, but organizational restructurings carry execution risk. Success will depend on whether the new COO role and re‑aligned reporting lines actually simplify decisions and sharpen the brand’s focus. [35]
Is Nike Stock a Buy Right Now?
As of December 7, 2025, the investment case for NKE is finely balanced:
- Bullish arguments
- A world‑class brand with leading market share and a long history of innovation. [36]
- A rich pipeline of sport‑led product initiatives (especially in running and performance) and a new “Sport Offense” organizational model designed to unlock growth. [37]
- Stabilizing top‑line trends with modest revenue growth in the latest quarter, plus mid‑20s percentage upside implied by average analyst price targets. [38]
- A consistent, growing dividend and ongoing share repurchases underpinning shareholder returns. [39]
- Bearish / cautious arguments
- Fiscal 2025 saw double‑digit revenue declines and a 44% drop in net income, and profitability remains under pressure. [40]
- Digital and Nike Direct are still weak, making the growth story less compelling than in past years. [41]
- China is soft, tariffs are biting, and the stock still trades at a premium P/E multiple to peers, even after its recent pullback. [42]
In short, Nike today looks like a high‑quality brand in a real but repairable slump. For investors with a multi‑year horizon, the combination of brand strength, dividend growth and potential for a successful execution of the “Win Now” and “Sport Offense” strategies could justify taking on the near‑term volatility. For shorter‑term or valuation‑sensitive investors, the upcoming December 18 earnings release and evidence of a genuine digital and China recovery may be the critical data points before committing new capital.
References
1. www.google.com, 2. www.google.com, 3. www.google.com, 4. growthinvesting.net, 5. finance.yahoo.com, 6. www.businesswire.com, 7. simplywall.st, 8. www.ft.com, 9. www.nasdaq.com, 10. www.alpha-sense.com, 11. finance.yahoo.com, 12. investors.nike.com, 13. www.google.com, 14. www.google.com, 15. www.gurufocus.com, 16. www.gurufocus.com, 17. www.alpha-sense.com, 18. www.alpha-sense.com, 19. www.alpha-sense.com, 20. growthinvesting.net, 21. investors.nike.com, 22. www.webull.com, 23. growthinvesting.net, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. stockanalysis.com, 26. growthinvesting.net, 27. public.com, 28. simplywall.st, 29. www.gurufocus.com, 30. www.gurufocus.com, 31. www.alpha-sense.com, 32. www.nasdaq.com, 33. www.alpha-sense.com, 34. www.ft.com, 35. www.businesswire.com, 36. growthinvesting.net, 37. www.alpha-sense.com, 38. www.marketbeat.com, 39. investors.nike.com, 40. investors.nike.com, 41. www.alpha-sense.com, 42. www.google.com
