UOL Group Limited (SGX: U14) Stock Near 52‑Week High on Marina Square Redevelopment and Target Price Upgrades

Updated 8 December 2025 – all figures in Singapore dollars unless stated otherwise.

UOL’s share price: strong 2025 rally, close to its peak

UOL Group Limited’s stock has had a powerful run in 2025. The Straits Times Index constituent is trading around S$8.60–S$8.70, very close to its 52‑week high of S$8.84, implying a market capitalisation of roughly S$7.3 billion and a trailing price‑earnings (P/E) ratio of about 17 times. ^[1]

Market‑cap data from StockAnalysis shows UOL’s valuation has increased by about 63% over the past year, while The Edge Singapore notes that the share price is up roughly two‑thirds year‑to‑date. ^[2] That puts UOL among the best‑performing large property counters on the Singapore Exchange in 2025.

UOL is one of Singapore’s major integrated property and hospitality groups, with a portfolio spanning residential developments, commercial properties and hotels across Asia‑Pacific and total assets of about S$23 billion. ^[3] The group also controls Singapore Land Group (SingLand) and Pan Pacific Hotels Group, giving it sizeable recurring income from investment properties and hospitality assets. ^[4]

1. Financial performance: 2024 beat and a strong first half of 2025

FY2024: EPS beat expectations

In March, UOL reported its full‑year 2024 results, delivering earnings that were about 15% above analyst EPS expectations, according to a post‑results breakdown on Yahoo Finance. ^[5] Multiple data providers estimate FY2024 revenue at roughly S$2.8 billion and net profit in the region of S$358 million, consistent with consensus estimates compiled by MarketWatch and Simply Wall St. ^[6]

That performance set the base for 2025, with analysts broadly expecting 2025 revenue of around S$2.8 billion, roughly flat versus FY2024 levels. ^[7]

1H2025: net profit jumps 58%

The stock’s 2025 re‑rating accelerated after the group’s first‑half 2025 earnings on 13 August. For the six months ended 30 June 2025, UOL reported: ^[8]

Revenue of about S$1.55 billion, up from S$1.27 billion a year earlier
Net profit of S$205.5 million, versus S$130.4 million in 1H2024 – a 58% increase
Earnings per share (EPS) of roughly 24.3 cents, up from 15.4 cents

Management and local media attributed the surge in profit primarily to stronger contributions from property development and investment properties, as well as gains from the disposal of the Parkroyal Yangon hotel. ^[9]

On a trailing‑twelve‑month basis, third‑party data sets put UOL’s revenue at just over S$3.0 billion and net income at roughly S$430 million, supporting that earnings momentum. ^[10]

2. Capital recycling: Kinex mall sale and portfolio reconstitution

Beyond earnings, investors have responded positively to UOL’s willingness to recycle capital out of mature assets.

In September 2025, UOL announced the planned divestment of its freehold commercial strata lots in Kinex mall for S$375 million, booking only about S$2.4 million in accounting gain. ^[11]

Broker reports cited by The Edge Singapore argue that, while the immediate profit is small, the sale is strategically positive:

DBS Group Research maintained its “buy” rating and S$8.80 target price, describing the move as part of broader “portfolio reconstitution” and value unlocking from non‑core assets. ^[12]
Citi Research similarly kept its “buy” call and S$9.60 target, noting that Kinex faces intense competition from nearby malls and that capital can be better redeployed into higher‑return residential and mixed‑use projects. ^[13]

Both houses highlight that even after the rally, UOL trades at roughly 0.5–0.6 times book value, or a 40–50% discount to their estimates of revalued net asset value (RNAV). ^[14]

3. Marina Square redevelopment: “hyper‑mixed” catalyst

The single biggest narrative driving interest in UOL this quarter is the planned redevelopment of Marina Square, one of Singapore’s most prominent downtown complexes.

SingLand’s S$99.1 million land acquisition

On 2 December 2025, Singapore Land Group – 50.37%‑owned by UOL – announced plans to transform Marina Square into what it calls “Singapore’s first hyper‑mixed development”, adding a condominium tower, a serviced‑apartment block and a mixed‑use tower to the existing mall and hotels. ^[15]

To support the scheme, SingLand entered into four sale‑and‑purchase agreements to acquire a 3,992 sqm land parcel at 6 Raffles Boulevard for S$99.1 million, which will be injected into Marina Residential Development, a wholly‑owned subsidiary of Marina Centre Holdings. Marina Centre Holdings itself is 77.34% owned by SingLand and 22.66% by UOL, giving UOL an indirect economic interest in the redevelopment. ^[16]

The broader Marina Square complex currently houses the Marina Square mall and three major hotels – Pan Pacific Singapore, Parkroyal Collection Marina Bay and Mandarin Oriental – and was valued at around S$1.05 billion as at 1H2025. ^[17]

Broker views: value unlocking and REIT optionality

The Edge Singapore’s detailed coverage highlights that: ^[18]

DBS Group Research views UOL as the “best proxy” for Marina Square’s redevelopment. Earlier this year, DBS estimated that rezoning and redevelopment could lift UOL’s RNAV by 4–6% and has a S$8.80 target price on the stock.
J.P. Morgan analysts maintain an “overweight” stance on UOL with a S$10.15 target price, estimating a potential gross development value (GDV) of about S$4.4 billion for the Marina Square project and a 5–6% uplift to SingLand’s RNAV.

Perhaps most intriguingly for longer‑term investors, J.P. Morgan notes that UOL remains the only major Singapore developer without a listed REIT and suggests that management may consider a REIT platform as a way to narrow the roughly 36% discount to book value at which the shares still trade. ^[19]

In the same article, Citi reiterates its S$9.60 target price with a “buy” rating, while DBS and J.P. Morgan both argue that the Marina Square plans, combined with prior divestments like Kinex, are “concrete steps” towards unlocking value from the group’s large investment‑property portfolio. ^[20]

4. Residential development tailwinds and the OCBC upgrade

UOL’s development arm is also enjoying an unusually strong sales cycle, helped by a falling interest‑rate benchmark and resilient home prices.

In a broker’s call on 18 November 2025, OCBC Investment Research upgraded its target price on UOL by more than 16%, from S$8.65 to S$10.06, while keeping a “buy” recommendation. ^[21]

Key points from the OCBC report:

Skye at Holland, a joint venture with CapitaLand Development and SingLand, sold 98.8% of its 666 units at launch in October, at an average selling price of about S$2,953 per square foot.
Earlier launches – UpperHouse at Orchard Boulevard and ParkTown Residence in Tampines North – also saw very strong take‑up. ^[22]
UOL has aggressively replenished its land bank, including the successful S$524.3 million government land sale (GLS) bid for a Dorset Road site and the S$810 million en‑bloc purchase of Thomson View Condominium, which OCBC expects to yield a roughly 1,240‑unit project launching in 2Q2026. ^[23]

OCBC also flags macro tailwinds: the three‑month compounded Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA) has fallen from 3.07% at end‑2024 to about 1.24% by mid‑November, while the Urban Redevelopment Authority’s private residential property price index is up 2.7% in the first nine months of 2025, near the top end of OCBC’s full‑year forecast. Developers have already sold over 10,000 private homes in the first ten months of 2025, far exceeding OCBC’s original volume projections. ^[24]

5. Analyst forecasts and target prices: a wide but generally positive range

Given the strong share‑price move, investors are watching fresh forecasts closely. Current data show a surprisingly wide spread of target prices:

DBS: S$8.80 target price (repeated in both the Kinex and Marina Square commentaries). ^[25]
Citi: S$9.60 target price, pegged to a roughly 40% discount to RNAV. ^[26]
OCBC: S$10.06 target price after the November upgrade, implying double‑digit upside from recent levels. ^[27]
J.P. Morgan: S$10.15 target price with an “overweight” call. ^[28]

Aggregator sites show how varied the broader sell‑side community is:

ValueInvesting.io calculates a 12‑month consensus target of S$9.02, about 4.6% above recent prices. ^[29]
Fintel’s compiled targets average S$9.31, with a wide range from S$6.16 to S$12.60. ^[30]
TradingView’s forecast points to a mean target around S$9.39 (range S$6.10–S$12.00). ^[31]
By contrast, local portal Beansprout pegs the consensus target at S$8.20, which would imply about 5% downside from a current price around S$8.67. ^[32]

In short, institutional research houses that focus intensively on Singapore developers tend to sit at the upper end of the range (close to S$10), while global or quantitative aggregators cluster around S$9.

6. Valuation debate: has the stock run ahead of fundamentals?

Not everyone believes the current price fully reflects risk.

A 1 December 2025 analysis by Simply Wall St argues that UOL’s P/E ratio of 16.4x, roughly in line with the Singapore market’s median of about 15x, is hard to justify given its recent earnings track record. The article notes that: ^[33]

EPS fell about 38% in the prior financial year, and
EPS has shrunk by roughly 26% in total over the last three years, even though earnings rebounded in 2024.

Looking forward, Simply Wall St’s compilation of analyst models suggests that UOL’s revenue could decline by about 5–6% per year, while earnings grow only marginally – around 0–1% annually – over the next few years. That implies UOL may underperform the broader real‑estate sector, where earnings are forecast to grow at more than 30% annually from a depressed base. ^[34]

From this perspective, UOL’s share price re‑rating is driven more by expectations of asset monetisation and RNAV narrowing than by strong earnings growth. If macro conditions worsen or planned redevelopments are delayed, some of that premium could unwind.

7. Balance sheet strength and dividend profile

Despite concerns about growth, most research providers agree that UOL’s balance sheet is solid:

Simply Wall St describes the group as having an “excellent balance sheet” and points to its ability to sustain dividends. ^[35]
The Edge’s Marina Square piece cites J.P. Morgan estimates that UOL has room to fund S$2–3 billion of capex for projects like Marina Square while keeping gearing in a 37–43% range, up from about 25% currently – still moderate by developer standards. ^[36]

On shareholder returns, market data services show UOL paying an annual dividend of about S$0.18 per share, implying a yield of roughly 2.0–2.1% at current prices. ^[37] The group has also occasionally used special dividends in recent years when monetising large assets, though future payouts will depend on capital needs for redevelopment and acquisitions. ^[38]

8. Key things investors will be watching into 2026

With the stock near its 52‑week high and trading volumes elevated, several catalysts and risks will likely dominate investor discussions over the next 12–18 months:

Execution on Marina Square
Regulatory approvals, phasing of construction, and updated project economics will determine how quickly RNAV accretion from the “hyper‑mixed” redevelopment flows through to valuations. ^[39]
Thomson View and Dorset Road launches
The planned 1,240‑unit redevelopment of Thomson View in 2026 and the future launch of the Dorset Road GLS site will test appetite for higher‑priced mass‑market and city‑fringe projects in a lower‑rate environment. ^[40]
Potential REIT spin‑off
Any concrete move towards listing a UOL‑sponsored REIT – something J.P. Morgan explicitly flags as a possibility – would likely be seen as a major value‑unlocking step, but would also reduce recurring income retained at the group level. ^[41]
Further capital recycling
Following Kinex and earlier divestments such as Stamford Court and the Parkroyal on Kitchener, investors will monitor whether UOL continues to sell mature properties and recycle capital into higher‑growth projects. ^[42]
Macro risk: property policy and rates
UOL’s upbeat outlook is partly built on falling SORA rates and robust private‑home demand. A reversal – whether through renewed global inflation pressure or tighter local property‑cooling measures – could weigh on both earnings and RNAV assumptions. ^[43]

Bottom line

As of 8 December 2025, UOL Group sits at the intersection of three powerful storylines:

a recovering earnings base with strong 1H2025 results,
active capital recycling and redevelopment, centred on Marina Square and a refreshed residential pipeline, and
mounting expectations of value unlocking, from RNAV discount narrowing to a possible REIT platform.

At the same time, independent analysts warn that long‑term earnings growth projections remain subdued and that the recent share‑price surge leaves less margin for error if the macro backdrop or project execution disappoints. ^[44]

For investors tracking Singapore developers, UOL has effectively turned itself from a sleepy value play into a high‑beta proxy on the city‑state’s property cycle and capital‑markets reforms. Whether 2026 delivers on the optimism now embedded in the share price will depend on how quickly plans at Marina Square and the wider portfolio move from glossy slides to realised cash flows.