Mortgage Rates Today, December 8, 2025: 30‑Year Fixed Hovers in the Mid‑6% Range as Markets Bet on a Fed Rate Cut

Mortgage borrowers are waking up to another day of mid‑6% mortgage rates – better than the 7%+ highs of earlier this year, but still far from the ultra‑cheap loans of the pandemic era. At the same time, markets are almost certain the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again this week, raising the question: how much lower can mortgage rates really go from here? ^[1]

Below is a detailed look at today’s mortgage rates (December 8, 2025), what’s driving them, and what major forecasters expect for 2026 home loan rates.

Key takeaways

30‑year fixed mortgage rates today:
- NerdWallet’s national index shows a 30‑year fixed purchase APR around 6.12%, with 15‑year loans near 5.53% and 5‑year ARMs around 6.65% as of early Monday morning. ^[2]
- Bankrate’s daily survey puts the average 30‑year fixed purchase APR at 6.34% and the 15‑year at 5.72%. ^[3]
- A Fortune daily rate roundup pegs the average 30‑year conforming fixed rate just over 6.16%. ^[4]
Refinance rates are higher: Bankrate reports a 30‑year fixed refi interest rate around 6.66% (about 6.73% APR) and a 15‑year refi around 6.06% (about 6.15% APR). ^[5]
Rates are near 14‑month lows but still above 6%:
- Freddie Mac’s weekly survey shows the 30‑year fixed at 6.19% as of December 4, down from 6.69% a year ago. ^[6]
- Investopedia notes that 30‑year mortgage rates recently hit their lowest levels since fall 2024, around the mid‑6% range. ^[7]
Fed cut this week is highly likely – but mortgage rates may not follow in lockstep: Futures markets and multiple analyst surveys put the odds of a 25‑basis‑point Fed cut at roughly 85–88% at the December 9–10 meeting, yet recent history shows mortgage rates can rise even after the Fed cuts. ^[8]
2026 outlook: Most major forecasts (Fannie Mae, Mortgage Bankers Association, Realtor.com, Zillow, Redfin, Bright MLS, NAR) cluster around low‑6% mortgage rates through 2026, with only modest chances of sustained sub‑6% averages. ^[9]

Mortgage rates today (December 8, 2025)

National averages for purchase loans

Different tracking services use different lender samples and methodologies, but they’re all telling roughly the same story this morning: a 30‑year fixed mortgage is sitting in the low‑to‑mid‑6% range for highly qualified borrowers.

NerdWallet – As of about 4:18 a.m. Eastern on Monday, December 8:
- 30‑year fixed purchase APR: ~6.12%, up a few basis points from yesterday
- 15‑year fixed APR: ~5.53%
- 5‑year ARM APR: ~6.65% ^[10]
Bankrate (purchase survey) – Updated today:
- 30‑year fixed mortgage APR: 6.34%
- 15‑year fixed mortgage APR: 5.72% ^[11]
Fortune (conforming loans) – This morning’s rate report shows:
- Average 30‑year conforming fixed rate: a touch above 6.16%. ^[12]
Freddie Mac PMMS (weekly) – For the week ending December 4:
- 30‑year fixed: 6.19%, down from 6.23% the prior week and from 6.69% a year earlier
- 15‑year fixed: 5.44%, down from 5.51% last week and 5.96% a year ago ^[13]

Taken together, today’s data suggest a typical well‑qualified buyer is looking at something like 6.1–6.3% on a 30‑year fixed and mid‑5% on a 15‑year, with ARMs and specialty products clustered in the mid‑6s.

Important: These are national averages. Your actual offer will depend on credit score, debt‑to‑income ratio, loan size, points, property type, and local market competition.

Refinance and ARM rates

Refinance borrowers are generally paying a bit of a premium over new‑purchase borrowers:

Bankrate (refinance survey), updated December 8: ^[14]
- 30‑year fixed refi interest rate: ~6.66% (about 6.73% APR)
- 15‑year fixed refi interest rate: ~6.06% (about 6.15% APR)
- 10‑year fixed refi: mid‑6%
- 5/1 ARM refi: just over 6%

Bankrate notes that its weekly average for 30‑year mortgage rates recently dropped to around 6.28%, down from above 6.5% earlier this year, contributing to a 109% year‑over‑year jump in refinance activity. But with roughly 70% of existing mortgages still carrying rates below 5%, most homeowners remain “rate‑locked” and are turning instead to home‑equity products. ^[15]

How today’s rates compare with recent months

Even though 6%+ feels high compared with 2020–2021, today’s levels are notably better than what we saw earlier this year:

Investopedia reports that 30‑year purchase rates recently fell to roughly 6.34%, their lowest since early October 2024, after spending much of 2025 closer to or above 7%. ^[16]
Another Investopedia analysis estimates the average 30‑year rate is now around 6.43%, just above the cheapest point of the past 13 months (about 6.35%), and roughly 10% lower than the mid‑May 2025 peak around 7.15%. ^[17]
Freddie Mac’s weekly PMMS shows a similar trend: 6.19% today vs. 6.69% a year ago, confirming that rates have eased, but only modestly, from last winter’s highs. ^[18]

In other words, mortgage costs have clearly retreated from their worst levels, but they’re still elevated enough to keep affordability stretched, especially given how quickly home prices and insurance costs have risen over the last five years.

All eyes on the Fed: A December rate cut is “almost priced in”

What markets expect this week

The big macro story behind today’s mortgage rate news is the Federal Reserve’s December 9–10 meeting.

Reuters and FT reporting:
- Analysts overwhelmingly expect the Fed to cut the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points, which would bring the target range down to about 3.5–3.75%, marking a third consecutive quarter‑point cut. ^[19]
- A Reuters piece notes that banks like Nomura, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley now forecast a cut, citing softer economic data and more dovish comments from Fed officials. ^[20]
- Fed‑funds futures tracked by the CME FedWatch tool show roughly 85–88% odds of a cut. ^[21]

At the same time, both FT reporting and NerdWallet’s December mortgage outlook highlight deep divisions inside the Fed: some officials remain focused on stubbornly high services inflation, while others are increasingly worried about labor‑market cooling and delayed economic data. ^[22]

That split is one reason mortgage markets have been whipsawing as different Fed officials speak.

Why a Fed cut doesn’t guarantee lower mortgage rates

Borrowers naturally assume that if the Fed cuts, mortgage rates will drop too. Recent history says: not necessarily.

Investopedia’s coverage of the Fed and mortgages points out that the Fed’s policy rate mainly affects short‑term borrowing (credit cards, personal loans, deposit yields), while 30‑year mortgage rates are more tightly linked to the 10‑year Treasury yield and long‑term inflation expectations. ^[23]
After the Fed’s September and October 2025 rate cuts, CBS News and Investopedia both note that mortgage rates actually moved lower right before each decision, then ticked higher in the weeks that followed – a classic case of markets “pricing in” a cut early, then retracing once the news lands. ^[24]
An Investopedia article reviewing the last year of Fed moves shows that even a full percentage‑point reduction in the Fed funds rate during late 2024 was followed by roughly a 1.25‑point increase in 30‑year mortgage ratesby the following January. ^[25]

The takeaway: mortgage rates often move before the Fed meeting and can just as easily climb as fall once the announcement and press conference are out.

For borrowers, that means this week’s Fed decision matters – but it’s not the only driver. Bond‑market expectations for 2026 inflation, growth, and future Fed policy will likely matter more than the headline cut itself. ^[26]

What forecasters see for mortgage rates in 2025–2026

Near‑term (rest of 2025)

NerdWallet’s December Mortgage Outlook highlights that both the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) and Fannie Mae expect the average 30‑year mortgage rate to come in around 6.3% for the fourth quarter of 2025. Since Freddie Mac data show an October–November average closer to 6.24%, rates would actually have to sit slightly higher in December to hit those projections. ^[27]

In other words, forecasters aren’t betting on a dramatic year‑end plunge. Instead, they expect sideways movement in a tight band around the low‑6% range, with headline volatility driven by Fed communication, inflation prints, and any surprises in job data. ^[28]

2026: A “reset year,” not a full rebound

Multiple 2026 housing outlooks have dropped in the last week, and they mostly agree on one thing: mortgage rates are likely to be a bit lower, but not dramatically so.

A Real Estate News round‑up of forecasts from Zillow, Redfin, Realtor.com, Bright MLS, and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) finds that: ^[29]

Bright MLS projects 30‑year rates around 6.15% by the end of 2026.
Redfin and Realtor.com expect an average around 6.3% in 2026, down from roughly 6.6% in 2025.
NAR is more optimistic, seeing rates near 6% on average, but still not in the 4% territory many homeowners remember.
Zillow’s economists say sub‑6% rates are unlikely in 2026, even if they drift lower from today’s levels.

CBS News, drawing on new Realtor.com and Zillow research, similarly reports that mortgage rates in 2026 are expected to “ease slightly” to an average of about 6.3%, with existing‑home sales rising only modestly from an estimated 4.07 million this year to around 4.13–4.3 million. ^[30]

An Investopedia piece summarizing major forecasts echoes that consensus: most baseline scenarios keep 30‑year rates in the low‑6% range at the end of 2025 and only slightly below 6% late in 2026. ^[31]

So while some relief is expected, the dominant view is that 2026 will be a “reset,” not a return to 3–4% mortgages. Affordability improves mainly because rates are lower than 2023–24 peaks and home‑price growth is projected to be flat to low‑single‑digits, not because borrowing suddenly becomes cheap again. ^[32]

How the housing market is adapting

U.S. prices and sales

The combination of mid‑6% rates and slower price growth is gradually nudging the U.S. market toward something closer to balance:

Realtor.com’s 2026 forecast, highlighted by CBS News, expects home prices to fall in 22 of the 100 largest U.S. metros, especially in parts of Florida and the West that saw outsized pandemic‑era booms. The rest of the big metros are expected to see modest price gains around 4% on median, with the national market moving toward the “most balanced” conditions since before the pandemic. ^[33]
Real Estate News notes that economists are all over the map on 2026 existing‑home sales, with forecasts ranging from roughly 4.1 million to 4.5 million transactions, but all agree that the market is still working through years of under‑supply and affordability shocks. ^[34]

Even with slightly lower mortgage rates, mortgage payments have risen far faster than incomes. One widely cited estimate from housing researcher John Burns suggests payments have jumped over 80% in the past five years, while incomes are up only about 26%, underscoring why buyers still feel squeezed. ^[35]

Global lens: UK and Australia

High mortgage costs are reshaping housing dynamics well beyond the U.S.:

In London, The Times reports that expensive homes are facing a “triple squeeze” of high mortgage rates, new property taxes and weaker buyer demand, with prices at the top end expected to flatline over the next three years and more owners selling at a loss. ^[36]
In Australia, reporting from the Courier‑Mail highlights that borrowers are aggressively using offset accounts and extra repayments to get ahead on their loans. Extra mortgage repayments reached record levels – more than A$14 billion in one recent quarter – and around 80% of one major bank’s customers kept paying at their earlier, higher rates even after cuts, effectively building a buffer for future shocks. ^[37]
In the Eurozone, an interview with ECB board member Isabel Schnabel makes clear that Europe’s central bank is not in a rush to cut further and might even hike next, reflecting concerns that underlying inflation progress has stalled. That stance helps keep European mortgage rates in “higher for longer” territory, even as U.S. markets price in more Fed easing. ^[38]

The common theme: the era of near‑zero global interest rates is over, and housing markets everywhere are adjusting to a structurally pricier cost of money.

What this environment means for borrowers right now

(General information only – not personalized financial advice.)

With mortgage rates hovering in the mid‑6s and a widely expected Fed cut already largely priced in, here’s how many experts suggest thinking about the current environment, based on guidance from Bankrate, NerdWallet, and Investopedia: ^[39]

1. Don’t assume a Fed cut automatically makes mortgages cheaper

Markets have already bid rates down to 14‑month lows on the expectation of a cut. ^[40]
If the Fed sounds more worried about inflation than expected, long‑term yields – and mortgage rates – could climb even if the policy rate is reduced. ^[41]

2. If you’re buying and you’re financially ready, timing the “perfect” rate is risky

Most mainstream forecasts only show modest additional declines over 2026, not a collapse back to 3–4%. ^[42]
Several analysts point out that you can always refinance later if rates drop meaningfully, but you can’t rewind to buy a home that’s already gone. ^[43]

Practical steps buyers often consider (in general terms):

Strengthen credit and reduce other debts to qualify for the best tier of today’s rates.
Compare offers from multiple lenders, since spreads between “national average” and individual quotes can be significant. ^[44]

3. If you’re thinking about refinancing

Bankrate’s data show that many homeowners with 6.5–7.5% loans from 2023–24 can now potentially refinance into the mid‑6s, but that those already below 5% usually don’t benefit enough to justify the costs. ^[45]
Several personal‑finance outlets suggest that, as a rough rule of thumb, a refi tends to make more sense when you can cut your rate by around a full percentage point and expect to stay in the home long enough to recoup closing costs. ^[46]

Refinancing decisions are highly individual, so it’s wise to:

Run the numbers with multiple lenders and a mortgage/refi calculator, and
Consider speaking with a qualified financial or housing counselor before making large borrowing decisions.

Bottom line

As of Monday, December 8, 2025, U.S. mortgage rates are:

Well below the 7%‑plus peaks of earlier this year,
Well above the sub‑3% pandemic era, and
Roughly aligned with a growing consensus that mid‑6% borrowing costs may be the “new normal” for at least another year or two. ^[47]

The upcoming Fed meeting is likely to bring another quarter‑point rate cut, but history suggests that mortgage rates may move as much on what Chair Powell says about 2026 as on what the Fed does this week. For would‑be buyers and refinancers, that means focusing less on perfectly predicting the next 0.25% move and more on overall affordability, financial readiness, and long‑term plans.