Robinhood Markets (HOOD) Stock: Indonesia Expansion, 200%+ Rally and What It Means for 2026

As of trading on December 8, 2025, Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) sits at around $131.95 per share, giving the commission‑free trading platform a market capitalization of roughly $127 billion and a price‑to‑earnings ratio near 58.

The stock has been one of 2025’s standout performers, with gains of more than 200% over the past 12 months, depending on the source and exact start date. ^[1] Now, a fresh catalyst has arrived: a bold push into Indonesia’s booming equity and crypto markets, alongside surging earnings and an increasingly crowded debate over valuation.

This article pulls together the latest news, forecasts and analyses dated December 8, 2025, to answer one question: after a 200%+ run, what’s next for Robinhood stock in 2026?

Robinhood Stock Today: Price, Momentum and Volatility

Current price (Dec 8, 2025): ~$131.95
Market cap: ~$127.2 billion
Trailing P/E: ~58

Across major data providers, Robinhood shows:

1‑week change: about +3%
1‑month change: about –5.5%, reflecting a pullback from recent highs
1‑year change: roughly +209% ^[2]

In other words, HOOD is no longer a forgotten pandemic meme stock; it’s a high‑beta mega‑cap that moves hard both up and down.

Day traders have noticed. A widely followed day‑trading screen lists Robinhood among the “best stocks for day trading” this week, citing:

~28 million shares in average 30‑day volume
~5.85% average intraday range
About $7.42 of average daily price movement ^[3]

That combination of liquidity and volatility keeps HOOD on the radar of short‑term traders even as long‑term investors debate valuation.

New Catalyst: Robinhood Enters Indonesia’s High‑Growth Market

The big headline on December 8, 2025 is Robinhood’s announcement that it is entering Indonesia via a pair of acquisitions:

PT Buana Capital Sekuritas – a licensed local brokerage
PT Pedagang Aset Kripto – a licensed digital asset (crypto) trader ^[4]

Key details from today’s coverage:

Indonesia is one of the world’s most active retail investing markets, with over 19 million capital‑market investors and around 17 million crypto traders. ^[5]
By buying existing licensed entities, Robinhood fast‑tracks regulatory approval instead of applying from scratch.
The deals are expected to close in the first half of 2026, subject to Indonesian regulators. ^[6]
Majority owner Pieter Tanuri will stay on as a strategic adviser, easing local execution. ^[7]

Analysts and commentators frame the move as:

A beachhead in Southeast Asia’s largest economy
A way to export Robinhood’s U.S. playbook – app‑based stock and crypto trading for a young, tech‑savvy population
A natural extension of Robinhood’s mission to “democratize finance” globally ^[8]

One December 8 analysis notes that Indonesia’s 36 million combined equity and crypto participants give HOOD a huge runway if it can convert local investors onto its platform over 2026 and beyond. ^[9]

Crucially, this isn’t just geographic diversification—it deepens Robinhood’s connection to crypto, since Indonesia is framed as an Asian crypto hub with supportive regulation. That amplifies both the upside in a continued crypto bull market and the downside if digital assets sell off.

Under the Hood: 2025 Earnings and User Growth

Behind the stock’s massive rally is a genuinely sharp improvement in fundamentals.

Revenue and earnings

In Q3 2025, multiple sources report that Robinhood:

Delivered roughly $1.27 billion in net revenue, about 100% year‑over‑year growth. ^[10]
Posted earnings per share around $0.61, beating a ~$0.51 consensus estimate. ^[11]
Expanded margins enough that EPS more than tripled versus the prior year. ^[12]

A separate operating update says Robinhood:

Generated $989 million in revenue, up 45% year‑over‑year,
Recorded $13.8 billion in net deposits, and
Reached a record 3.5 million Robinhood Gold subscribers, with diluted EPS up 100% year‑over‑year. ^[13]

Those figures vary slightly depending on period and source, but they all tell the same story: revenue is growing extraordinarily fast, and profitability has arrived.

Users, assets and subscriptions

On the customer side:

Funded customers reached about 26.8 million in Q3 2025, up 10% year‑over‑year. ^[14]
Robinhood’s paid membership, Robinhood Gold, added about 1.7 million customers in Q3, a 77% year‑over‑year increase. ^[15]
Platform assets are estimated at around $343 billion, up roughly 115% year‑over‑year. ^[16]

Gold is strategically important: it bundles perks like retirement contribution matching, higher yields on idle cash and credit‑card rewards, turning one‑time traders into recurring‑revenue subscribers. ^[17]

In short, Robinhood is evolving from a pure trading app into something closer to a lightweight digital bank plus trading plus derivatives plus prediction markets.

How Much of Robinhood’s Boom Is Crypto?

Quite a lot.

According to recent breakdowns of Q3 2025:

Transaction revenue in the quarter was about $730 million, up 129% year‑over‑year. ^[18]
Only about $86 million of that came from U.S. equities.
Roughly $268 million came from cryptocurrency trading, up around 300% year‑over‑year. ^[19]

Crypto volumes are surging:

Q3 crypto notional volumes reached around $80 billion, with app volumes up 176% year‑over‑year. ^[20]
In October 2025 alone, crypto notional volumes were about $32.5 billion, up 38% vs. September and roughly 480% vs. a year earlier. ^[21]

Commentary from The Motley Fool and others note that HOOD’s share price has lately moved in tandem with Bitcoin and other large cryptocurrencies, benefitting from the crypto rally but also selling off when digital assets weaken. ^[22]

Management is trying to reduce that dependence by rolling out:

Credit cards and checking accounts
Cash‑delivery and cash‑management products
Exclusive mortgage offers
A prediction‑markets platform launched earlier in 2025 ^[23]

The strategic goal: make Robinhood less cyclical than a pure trading shop, and more like a diversified fintech platform with multiple recurring‑revenue streams.

What Wall Street Analysts and Modelers Are Saying

The analyst and quant community is far from unanimous, but the tone is tilted bullish.

Street ratings and price targets

MarketBeat’s aggregation of Wall Street coverage (as of December 8, 2025) shows: ^[24]

1 analyst rating HOOD “Strong Buy”
14 rating it “Buy”
7 rating it “Hold”
1 rating it “Sell”

Overall, the stock carries an average rating of “Moderate Buy” and a consensus price target of about $136.95. ^[25]

With the shares around $131.95, that consensus implies only about 3.8% upside over the next 12 months — a signal that, in the aggregate, analysts think a large portion of the good news is already priced in. ^[26]

Zacks earnings forecasts

A November analysis from Zacks (via Nasdaq) highlights that:

The 2025 EPS consensus for Robinhood is about $1.94,
The 2026 EPS consensus is about $2.26,
Those numbers imply year‑over‑year earnings growth of ~78% in 2025 and ~16% in 2026, and
Based on their ranking methodology, Robinhood currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). ^[27]

So on earnings power, Wall Street is modeling continued high growth, but with a noticeable deceleration after 2025’s explosive step‑up.

Valuation models: premium but (maybe) still undervalued

A valuation piece from Simply Wall St, syndicated on Webull, notes that: ^[28]

Robinhood’s share price has climbed more than 200% year‑to‑date, with total shareholder return around 250%.
A discounted‑cash‑flow–style “fair value” model pegs intrinsic value at roughly $151.71 per share, versus a recent close around $122.50, implying the stock was about 19% undervalued at that time.
On the other hand, Robinhood trades at around 50x earnings, more than double the U.S. capital‑markets industry average in the mid‑20s, underscoring a significant valuation premium.

Overlay today’s higher price (~$132) and the current P/E around 58, and the valuation stretch is even more pronounced, even if some models still see room for upside. ^[29]

More cautious takes: The Motley Fool

A December 7 analysis from The Motley Fool, republished via Nasdaq, is more skeptical: ^[30]

It reiterates that revenue doubled in Q3 and that Robinhood stock is up about 268% in 2025.
It highlights the premium P/E around 56–57, arguing the valuation already bakes in a lot of good news.
It emphasizes the heavy reliance on crypto trading, warning that a sharp crypto downturn could hit both revenue and the share price hard.
Importantly, it notes that Robinhood is not among the Motley Fool Stock Advisor team’s current “top 10” picks, suggesting the opportunity set elsewhere may be more attractive on a risk‑adjusted basis.

This introduces the core tension: explosive growth vs. a lofty valuation on highly cyclical revenue.

Sentiment Snapshot: From Jim Cramer to Institutions

Media and personality coverage

On December 8, 2025, Jim Cramer commented that “Robinhood goes higher”, calling the stock a proxy for young investors and pointing out that its roughly 267% year‑to‑date gain has attracted additional momentum buyers. ^[31]

That framing — “young investors use the app, so they buy the stock” — cuts both ways: it hints at powerful brand loyalty, but also at a shareholder base that can be emotionally and macro‑sensitive.

Institutional flows

Meanwhile, a series of fresh 13F‑related headlines show big money moving in and out:

The California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) boosted its HOOD stake by about 17.4%, adding 186,687 shares. ^[32]
Baird Financial Group disclosed a purchase of 145,381 shares. ^[33]
Cary Street Partners also reported acquiring HOOD shares. ^[34]
Cerity Partners trimmed its holdings by around 4.7%, showing not every institution is doubling down at current levels. ^[35]

Separately, one report highlights that Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, has taken a meaningful position in HOOD even as a recent crypto sell‑off temporarily weighed on the stock — a sign that some sophisticated investors see long‑term value despite short‑term volatility. ^[36]

Net‑net, the December 8 institutional data supports the view that HOOD has graduated into a mainstream institutional holding, not just a retail trading toy.

Bull Case: Why Some See Further Upside

Pulling together today’s coverage and recent analyses, the bullish thesis on Robinhood looks roughly like this:

Hyper‑growth fundamentals
- Revenue roughly doubled year‑over‑year in Q3.
- EPS beat estimates and is expected to grow ~78% in 2025 and another 16% in 2026. ^[37]
- User count, assets and paid subscriptions are all growing at double‑digit rates.
Flywheel of products and engagement
- Gold subscriptions, credit cards, checking, mortgages, cash‑delivery and prediction markets all deepen customer engagement and add recurring or fee‑based revenue. ^[38]
International and crypto growth optionality
- The Indonesia expansion provides exposure to a fast‑growing market with tens of millions of investors and crypto traders, in a regulatory environment that is progressively formalizing digital assets. ^[39]
- If the global crypto bull market continues, Robinhood’s outsized crypto revenue could drive another leg up in earnings and sentiment. ^[40]
Brand and demographic advantage
- Robinhood remains a default app for younger retail investors, a demographic with decades of investing ahead. ^[41]
- Its interface and mobile‑first approach still feel more “consumer tech” than “Wall Street,” which can be a durable edge.
Model‑based upside
- Some valuation models place “fair value” 10–20% above recent prices, even after the rally. ^[42]
- Zacks’ Strong Buy rating and upward earnings revisions suggest positive estimate momentum is still intact. ^[43]

In this framing, HOOD is less a meme stock and more a high‑growth fintech platform riding structural shifts in how younger investors trade, save, speculate and borrow.

Bear Case: Why Others Are Wary After a 200%+ Rally

On the flip side, the bearish or cautious thesis emphasizes risk, cyclicality and valuation:

Crypto dependence and correlation risk
- Crypto accounts for a very large share of transaction revenue — around $268 million of $730 million in Q3. ^[44]
- Several analyses note that Robinhood’s stock has moved with Bitcoin and major cryptos, rising during the crypto rally and wobbling during pullbacks. ^[45]
- A sharp crypto downturn could hit both earnings and sentiment at the same time.
Valuation stretch
- A P/E near 58 is more than double the sector average, and higher than many larger, more diversified financials. ^[46]
- After a 200–270% run in a single year, any slowdown in growth could trigger a sharp multiple compression. ^[47]
Sensitivity to market cycles
- As both Motley Fool and other commentators point out, Robinhood thrives in bull markets, when retail trading is active, but could see user engagement and revenue slow if markets turn risk‑off. ^[48]
Regulatory and reputational risk
- A platform deeply entwined with meme stocks, options, crypto and now prediction markets will always live under a hotter regulatory spotlight than a vanilla broker. ^[49]
Crowded trade
- With HOOD now in the S&P 500, owning it is increasingly a consensus position via index funds, not a contrarian bet. ^[50]
- Consensus target prices only modestly above today’s price suggest that much of the optimism is already embedded. ^[51]

In this view, HOOD is a great company at a demanding price, tightly linked to some of the most volatile corners of global markets.

12‑Month Outlook: Scenarios Rather Than Certainties

Given the divergence between bullish models and cautious commentary, it’s more realistic to think in scenarios than in point targets.

Bullish scenario (2026)

Under a constructive backdrop:

Global equities stay firm and crypto continues its rally.
Robinhood maintains strong double‑digit user and revenue growth, hitting or beating the current EPS path (~$1.94 in 2025 and ~$2.26 in 2026). ^[52]
Indonesia launches on schedule in 2026, adding a new growth leg. ^[53]
Subscription and banking products scale, reducing earnings volatility.

In that case, valuation models implying 10–20% upside could be conservative, and HOOD might justify (or even expand) its premium multiple. ^[54]

Base / consolidation scenario

A more middle‑of‑the‑road path:

Revenue continues to grow, but at a slower pace as comps get harder.
Crypto cools but doesn’t crash; trading activity normalizes.
Indonesia and other expansions contribute, but gradually.

Under this scenario, the stock might oscillate around current levels, with modest positive returns driven mostly by earnings growth rather than multiple expansion. Consensus targets in the mid‑$130s implicitly lean toward something like this. ^[55]

Bearish scenario

If risk assets stumble:

A crypto correction and/or a broad equity sell‑off hits retail enthusiasm.
Trading volumes drop, transaction revenue slows sharply, and earnings miss optimistic forecasts.
Regulators clamp down harder on high‑risk products (crypto, options, prediction markets), increasing compliance costs and limiting product innovation. ^[56]

Given the current P/E near 58, even a modest derating to peer‑like multiples in the 20s–30s could mean substantial downside if growth disappoints.

What This Means for Investors Watching HOOD Now

As of December 8, 2025, Robinhood is:

A hyper‑growth, crypto‑levered fintech with real profits, enormous momentum and a credible international expansion story.
A stock that’s up well over 200% in a year, now trading on rich multiples and increasingly sensitive to market cycles and crypto sentiment.

For growth‑oriented investors comfortable with volatility, HOOD looks like a high‑beta bet on continued bull markets, crypto strength and the rise of app‑based finance globally. For more conservative investors, its premium valuation and cyclical revenue mix may argue for caution, diversification or waiting for a better entry point.

Either way, after today’s Indonesia announcement and the latest round of forecasts, Robinhood has firmly graduated from meme‑stock sideshow to macro‑sensitive, headline‑driven market heavyweight — one that will likely remain front‑and‑center in 2026 whenever retail trading, crypto or fintech are in the news.