As of December 8, 2025, Rubrik, Inc. (NYSE: RBRK) sits squarely in the crosshairs of two of the hottest themes in markets: cybersecurity and artificial intelligence. Following a blowout fiscal Q3 2026 report on December 4 and a sharp rebound in the share price, fresh research notes, price-target hikes and new AI product announcements are reshaping the investment case for Rubrik stock. [1]
Below is a detailed, SEO-friendly deep dive into the latest news, forecasts and analyses on Rubrik stock as of December 8, 2025.
Rubrik Stock Today: Price, Market Cap and Recent Performance
Rubrik shares have ripped higher since the Q3 earnings release:
- Recent price: Around the mid‑$80s to high‑$80s per share; MarketBeat notes that Rubrik opened at $86.36 on Monday, December 8, with the stock “trading up 22.6%” in the wake of its results. [2]
- Market capitalization: Various data providers peg Rubrik’s market value around $16.8–17.1 billion as of early December. StockAnalysis and CompaniesMarketCap both place the figure near $17.0 billion. [3]
- 52‑week range: 12‑month low $47.35 and high $103.00, underscoring how volatile the stock has been since its April 2024 IPO. [4]
- Trend: Rubrik’s market cap has climbed from about $5.6 billion at IPO to roughly $17 billion, over 200% growth in less than two years. [5]
Following the earnings spike, Rubrik now trades well off its autumn lows but still below its 52‑week high, an important context for current “buy or sell” debates.
What Rubrik Does and Why AI Matters
Rubrik describes itself as a “Security and AI Operations” company. Its Rubrik Security Cloud platform focuses on cyber resilience: protecting, monitoring and recovering data and identities across on‑premises environments, public clouds and SaaS applications. [6]
Key pillars of the story:
- Data security and backup for critical workloads (databases, VMs, SaaS apps).
- Threat analytics and data security posture management (DSPM) to detect anomalies, ransomware and misconfigurations. [7]
- Identity resilience (Active Directory, Entra ID, Okta) to roll back malicious or accidental identity changes. [8]
- AI agent security via Rubrik Agent Cloud, which monitors, governs and “rewinds” AI agents built on platforms like Amazon Bedrock and Microsoft Copilot Studio. [9]
This positioning puts RBRK squarely in the path of rising cyber‑attack risks and enterprise adoption of generative AI—two trends analysts repeatedly flag as long‑term tailwinds.
Q3 FY 2026 Earnings: The Catalyst Behind the Surge
Rubrik’s fiscal Q3 2026 results (for the quarter ended October 31, 2025) were the main catalyst for the recent rally. The company reported on December 4, 2025: [10]
Headline numbers
- Total revenue: $350.2 million, up 48% year‑over‑year.
- Subscription revenue: $336.4 million, up 52% versus the prior‑year quarter.
- Subscription ARR: $1.35 billion, up 34% year‑over‑year.
- Large customers: 2,638 customers with at least $100,000 in subscription ARR, up 27% from a year ago.
Profitability and cash flow
- GAAP gross margin: 80.5%, vs. 76.2% a year earlier.
- Non‑GAAP gross margin: 82.8%, up from 79.2%.
- GAAP net loss per share: –$0.32, an improvement from –$0.71 in Q3 last year.
- Non‑GAAP EPS (diluted): +$0.10, compared with a –$0.21 non‑GAAP loss a year ago.
- Free cash flow (FCF): $76.9 million, up from $15.6 million; operating cash flow reached $85.5 million, nearly quadruple last year’s level. [11]
Several outlets emphasize the scale of the beat:
- Zacks notes that Rubrik reported $0.10 EPS vs. a consensus estimate of –$0.16, and revenue of about $350 million vs. expectations near $320 million. [12]
- Schaeffer’s Research highlights that the stock jumped more than 20%, trading above $87 after the report, and points out that Rubrik trimmed its full‑year loss forecast while delivering stronger‑than‑expected results. [13]
Rubrik’s CEO Bipul Sinha called it “another exceptional quarter,” underscoring record net new subscription ARR and “strong free cash flow generation” as proof that the company is gaining leverage while the “AI transformation” accelerates. CFO Kiran Choudary highlighted the move from negative to positive contribution margin on subscription ARR as evidence of improving operating efficiency. [14]
Updated Guidance: What Management Expects for 2026
Alongside Q3 results, Rubrik raised its outlook for the rest of fiscal 2026: [15]
Q4 FY 2026 outlook
- Revenue between $341–343 million.
- Non‑GAAP subscription ARR contribution margin around 9%.
- Non‑GAAP EPS of –$0.12 to –$0.10.
Full‑year FY 2026 outlook
- Subscription ARR between $1.439–1.443 billion.
- Total revenue between $1.280–1.282 billion.
- Non‑GAAP subscription ARR contribution margin ~9%.
- Non‑GAAP EPS of –$0.20 to –$0.16.
- Free cash flow of $194–202 million, implying a mid‑teens FCF margin on guided revenue.
In other words, Rubrik is still guiding to a small non‑GAAP net loss for the year, but the business is already consistently generating meaningful positive free cash flow, which is central to many bullish theses. [16]
AI and Cyber Resilience: Recent Product and Partnership News
Several recent announcements tie Rubrik even more closely to the AI and cyber‑resilience narrative:
1. Rubrik Agent Cloud for Amazon Bedrock
On December 1, 2025, Rubrik announced Rubrik Agent Cloud for Amazon Bedrock AgentCore at AWS re:Invent. [17]
Key elements:
- Automatically discovers AI agents built on Amazon Bedrock AgentCore and custom agents.
- Monitors agent behavior and data access, maintaining immutable audit trails that blend data, identity and application context.
- Enforces real‑time guardrails around agent behavior and access.
- Uses Agent Rewind (introduced in August 2025) to enable “precise time and blast radius rollback” of destructive or unwanted agent actions. [18]
Rubrik also announced it earned the AWS Resilience Software Competency (Recovery category), signaling AWS’s validation of Rubrik’s ability to help customers improve availability and resilience. [19]
2. Integration with Microsoft Copilot Studio
On November 18, 2025 at Microsoft Ignite, Rubrik revealed that Rubrik Agent Cloud will integrate with Microsoft Copilot Studio, enhancing governance over AI agents that extend Microsoft 365 Copilot. [20]
The integration allows enterprises to:
- Discover AI agents built on Microsoft 365, Copilot Studio or Azure.
- Monitor AI agent behavior and data access across OneDrive, SharePoint and more.
- Apply centralized policies for agent behavior and access.
- “Rewind” destructive actions with Agent Rewind, restoring systems to a safe point without significant downtime. [21]
3. Identity and cyber‑recovery enhancements
In Q3, Rubrik also:
- Introduced Rubrik Okta Recovery for automated, immutable backups and granular recovery of Okta identity environments, complementing existing support for Active Directory and Entra ID. [22]
- Expanded its partnership with CrowdStrike, integrating Rubrik Identity Resilience with CrowdStrike Falcon Next‑Gen Identity Security to reverse malicious identity changes more effectively. [23]
- Partnered with Cognizant to deliver Business Resilience‑as‑a‑Service (BRaaS), packaging Rubrik’s AI‑driven resilience platform with Cognizant’s services to speed ransomware and incident recovery. [24]
These moves have been highlighted by analysts as reinforcing Rubrik’s role at the intersection of AI, identity security and data protection—an area expected to see sustained spending even in cautious IT budgets. [25]
Fresh Research and Opinions (December 8, 2025)
Seeking Alpha: “Rock Solid Performance and Reasonable Valuation”
On December 8, 2025, Andres Cardenal, CFA, published a long-form analysis on Seeking Alpha titled “Rubrik: Rock Solid Performance And Reasonable Valuation.” [26]
Key points from his summary:
- Rubrik delivered a “stellar quarter”, beating expectations on revenue, ARR, margins and guidance.
- The company benefits from powerful AI and cybersecurity tailwinds and rapid growth in newer offerings like identity resilience and AI agent security.
- On Cardenal’s numbers, Rubrik trades at roughly 11× revenue, which he characterizes as reasonable given growth and FCF, with about 33% upside to consensus price targets.
- He acknowledges competitive risks in cybersecurity and data protection but views Rubrik’s execution and product innovation as supportive of continued outperformance.
The article explicitly rates Rubrik a strong buy, reinforcing the bullish side of the debate.
Forbes / Trefis: “Buy or Sell Rubrik Stock at $86?”
Also on December 8, 2025, Trefis (via Forbes’ Great Speculations column) published “Buy or Sell Rubrik Stock At $86?” [27]
From available summaries:
- Trefis highlights Rubrik’s record net new subscription ARR and strong free cash flow following the Q3 beat, which pushed the stock price above $85.
- However, despite those fundamentals, the piece suggests that shares look “relatively pricey” at current levels, implying that most of the upside may already be reflected in the price at around $86.
In short: Seeking Alpha leans strong buy with room to run; Trefis is more valuation‑sensitive and cautious at current levels.
Wall Street Analyst Ratings and Price Targets
Sell‑side coverage on Rubrik has intensified in 2025, especially after earnings.
Consensus ratings
Across major aggregators:
- GuruFocus: Based on 23 brokerage firms, Rubrik’s average recommendation score is 1.8 on a 1–5 scale, where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell, corresponding to “Outperform.” [28]
- MarketBeat: Reports 20 Buy ratings, 1 Hold, and 1 Sell, describing the consensus as “Moderate Buy.” [29]
- StockAnalysis: Labels the consensus as “Strong Buy” based on around 18 analysts. [30]
The exact wording differs (Strong Buy vs. Moderate Buy vs. Outperform), but the direction is clear: Wall Street is broadly positive on RBRK.
Price targets
Recent target data cluster in a relatively tight band:
- GuruFocus: 21 analysts, average target $113.44, with a high of $130 and low of $92. At a price around $86–87, that implies roughly 30–31% upside. [31]
- MarketBeat: Consensus target $113.06, high $130, low $85, and approximately 30–31% upside from the mid‑$80s. [32]
- StockAnalysis: Average 12‑month target $110.94, high $130, low $70. [33]
- Eulerpool (German‑language site): Notes an average target of $117.46, which at earlier price levels implied more than 70% upside—a figure that has narrowed as the stock has rallied. [34]
- Benzinga’s compilation: Across 24 analysts, the average target sits around $99.14, with a high of $130 and low of $40, and an overall “Buy” rating. [35]
Taken together, fresh targets generally cluster between $100 and $115, with a bull case up to $130, suggesting the Street sees roughly 20–35% potential upside from current levels over the next 12 months, albeit with some dispersion.
Notable individual calls
Recent updates include: [36]
- Piper Sandler: Reiterated “Overweight”, raising its target from $115 to $118 on December 5, following the Q3 earnings report.
- Cantor Fitzgerald: Maintained “Overweight” but trimmed its target from $115 to $105 on December 3, reflecting prior volatility.
- Guggenheim: Reiterated a “Buy” with a $108 target on December 1.
- Mizuho: Upgraded Rubrik from “Neutral” to “Outperform” with a $97 target on November 17.
- Wedbush: Reaffirmed “Outperform” with a $120 target (September 11).
- Oppenheimer: Initiated coverage with a “Perform” rating (neutral stance).
This mix helps explain why consensus lands in “Moderate Buy” territory: the vast majority are bullish, but a handful of more cautious or neutral voices are starting to focus on valuation risk.
Institutional and Insider Activity: Who’s Buying Rubrik?
Institutional investors
On December 8, MarketBeat reported that HarbourVest Partners LLC significantly reduced its Rubrik stake but still counts it as a top position: [37]
- HarbourVest cut its RBRK stake by 49.2% in Q2 to 87,658 shares, still representing about 8.6% of its portfolio and its 4th‑largest holding, valued at roughly $7.85 million.
- Other institutions (Jump Financial, Cresset Asset Management, etc.) have been net buyers. MarketBeat estimates that institutions own around 49.5% of Rubrik’s shares. [38]
StockTitan and BusinessWire‑linked data show institutional ownership figures above 80% of the float, reflecting slightly different definitions and data sources but still pointing to heavy institutional involvement. [39]
MarketBeat’s broader feature on Rubrik’s “massive rebound” notes that institutions have been aggressively accumulating stock in 2025 at a pace of roughly $3.70 bought for every $1 sold, a dynamic that can provide a tailwind if it persists. [40]
Insider selling
The HarbourVest report also highlights notable insider activity: [41]
- An insider, Brian K. McCarthy, sold 10,000 shares at an average of about $75.90.
- Director John Wendell Thompson sold 9,009 shares around $68.75.
- Over the last 90 days, insiders sold roughly 115,966 shares worth about $8.78 million.
Insiders still own over 30% of the company, but the steady selling is a factor some investors monitor, especially after big price spikes.
Short interest
Short sellers have also been active:
- Yahoo Finance data show short interest at about 9% of float (as of mid‑November), with days to cover near 5, meaning shorts need several days of typical trading volume to close their positions. [42]
Schaeffer’s Research notes that part of Rubrik’s post‑earnings surge likely came from short covering, as the stock gapped higher and options activity spiked. [43]
Valuation: Expensive Growth or Reasonable Premium?
With Rubrik now trading in the mid‑$80s and a market cap near $17 billion on guided fiscal‑year revenue around $1.28 billion, the stock is valued at roughly low‑to‑mid‑teens times forward sales on a market‑cap basis. [44]
Different analysts describe valuation in slightly different ways:
- Andres Cardenal (Seeking Alpha) estimates Rubrik at roughly 11× revenue, arguing this is “reasonable” relative to its growth, margin expansion and FCF profile. [45]
- Trefis, by contrast, characterizes RBRK as “relatively pricey at current levels” around $86, suggesting limited upside relative to their intrinsic value estimate. [46]
- Eulerpool data show a trailing P/S ratio around 15 and P/E still negative, reflecting GAAP losses. [47]
What most observers agree on:
- Rubrik deserves some premium multiple as a high‑growth, high‑margin security and AI infrastructure business with strong net‑new ARR and FCF momentum. [48]
- However, after a +20–25% post‑earnings jump, valuation risk has increased, especially if growth slows or the broader AI trade cools.
Key Risks Highlighted in Recent Coverage
Despite the bullish tone of many notes, several risks surface repeatedly in filings and research reports:
- Execution and growth risk
Rubrik acknowledges in its own filings that it has a limited operating history as a public company and must continue to deliver high growth in a competitive market. [49] - Intense competition
Rubrik competes with large, well‑funded players in backup, data protection and cybersecurity. Some analysts flag the risk that giants could compress pricing or bundle competing solutions. [50] - Profitability still emerging
- GAAP results remain loss‑making, and management still guides to a non‑GAAP loss for FY 2026 even after a profitable quarter. [51]
- Any slowdown in growth or uptick in spending could delay the path to consistent profitability.
- Valuation and multiple compression
Analysts warning about valuation—like Trefis and some neutral‑rated brokers—stress that high‑growth software stocks can re‑rate sharply if sentiment shifts or growth decelerates. [52] - Short‑interest overhang and insider selling
Elevated short interest and ongoing insider sales can add volatility, even if fundamentals remain strong. [53]
2026–2027 Outlook: What the Market Is Pricing In
Putting guidance and analyst forecasts together, the current consensus narrative looks roughly like this:
- Revenue growth: High‑teens to mid‑20s percentage growth beyond FY 2026, off a $1.28 billion base, powered by demand for cyber resilience, identity security and AI agent governance. [54]
- Margins: Continued improvement in gross and contribution margins, with free cash flow margins trending upward from the mid‑teens toward 20%+ over time if scale benefits persist. [55]
- Stock price:
- Most target models cluster around $110–115 over 12 months, with bull cases up to $130. [56]
- MarketBeat’s feature explicitly argues that Rubrik is likely to re‑test and potentially break above its prior high near $100, with the possibility of new all‑time highs by mid‑2026 if AI and cybersecurity spending stays strong. [57]
At the same time, Forbes/Trefis and some cautious brokers suggest that after the rally, upside vs. risk is more balanced, especially for investors who bought at lower levels and are now sitting on large gains. [58]
Is Rubrik (RBRK) Stock a Buy, Sell or Hold Now?
Whether Rubrik stock is attractive at current levels depends heavily on an investor’s risk tolerance and time horizon. Recent coverage sketches a fairly clear bull‑versus‑bear framework:
Bull case in a nutshell
- Explosive Q3 results: ~50% revenue growth, 34% ARR growth, and a powerful swing to positive non‑GAAP EPS and strong free cash flow. [59]
- Strategic AI and security position: Unique focus on cyber resilience + AI agent governance + identity recovery in partnership with AWS, Microsoft, CrowdStrike and others. [60]
- Healthy institutional and analyst support: High institutional ownership, strong accumulation patterns, and consensus targets pointing to double‑digit percentage upside from current prices. [61]
Bear (or cautious) case
- Rich valuation after a rapid post‑earnings move, with Rubrik now trading at a premium sales multiple and still posting GAAP losses. [62]
- Execution and competition risks in a crowded security and data‑protection market. [63]
- Insider selling and hefty short interest that could amplify volatility in either direction. [64]
For long‑term, growth‑oriented investors who are comfortable with volatility and premium valuations, recent analyses from Seeking Alpha and MarketBeat suggest Rubrik remains an attractive way to gain exposure to AI‑driven cybersecurity and data resilience trends. [65]
More valuation‑sensitive or conservative investors, however, may resonate with the Trefis/Forbes view that at around $85–90, Rubrik’s stock starts to look fully valued to slightly expensive, making the risk‑reward less compelling right after a big earnings pop. [66]
Important note: This article summarizes public news, guidance and analyst opinions as of December 8, 2025. It is not personalized investment advice. Anyone considering Rubrik stock should evaluate their own financial situation, risk tolerance and investment objectives or consult a qualified financial adviser.
References
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