Rivian Stock on December 8, 2025: Downgrade, Recall and R2 Hopes

Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) is back in the market spotlight today, and not in a quiet way.

As of Monday afternoon, Rivian shares were trading around $17.30, down roughly 3–5% on the day, with intraday trading between about $17.05 and $17.70. That pullback comes after a strong rally from the April 2024 low of about $8.26 and a 12‑month gain in the high 30% range, even though the stock is still down roughly 90% from its 2021 peak near $172. ^[1]

Today’s move is being driven by a high‑profile downgrade from Morgan Stanley, a recall of nearly 35,000 delivery vans, and rising questions about whether Rivian’s much‑hyped R2 SUV can carry the company through what Wall Street is now calling an EV “hangover” period.

This article walks through the latest news (as of December 8, 2025), the current analyst forecasts, and the key bull and bear arguments around RIVN stock.

Nothing below is investment advice. It’s information and analysis to help you think, not a recommendation to buy or sell anything.

Rivian Stock Today: Price, Performance and Volatility

Current price: about $17.3 per share, down ~3–4% on Monday.
52‑week range: roughly $10.36 to $18.60. ^[2]
Market cap: about $22 billion at recent prices. ^[3]
12‑month performance: up roughly 38–45% over the last year. ^[4]

Several recent articles note that Rivian shares are up around 30% year‑to‑date and about 45% over 12 months, even after today’s dip. ^[5] That sounds great until you remember the stock came public at $78 and briefly traded above $170 in 2021. ^[6] For early IPO buyers, this is still deep‑value territory, not victory lap territory.

In other words, RIVN is behaving like a classic high‑beta EV story: huge drawdown from the bubble peak, real operational progress, and share price that moves sharply on every upgrade, downgrade, recall, and rumor about the next model.

Why RIVN Is Falling on December 8: Morgan Stanley Turns Bearish

The immediate catalyst for today’s drop is Morgan Stanley’s downgrade.

The downgrade

Morgan Stanley cut Rivian from Equal‑Weight to Underweight (Sell) and kept its $12 price target, well below current levels. ^[7]
The new call comes from analyst Andrew Percoco, who has taken over EV coverage from well‑known auto analyst Adam Jonas. ^[8]
Morgan Stanley frames this as part of a broader view that the EV slowdown will extend into 2026, hurting not just Rivian but also Tesla, Lucid and others. ^[9]

Benzinga’s summary of the report adds a few particularly sharp points: ^[10]

The firm sees “outsized risk” heading into 2026 as Rivian launches the R2, its mass‑market SUV.
It cites slowing EV adoption, the loss of the $7,500 U.S. federal EV tax credit, and persistent concerns about range, charging and residual values. ^[11]
Morgan Stanley models around $4.2 billion of free‑cash‑flow burn in 2026 and worries that R2 could cannibalize demand for Rivian’s higher‑priced R1 lineup. ^[12]

Barron’s also notes that Percoco has cut Rivian and Lucid to Sell while upgrading General Motors, essentially betting that ICE and hybrids will look better than pure EVs for a while as the industry digests the last few years of hyper‑growth. ^[13]

Put simply: the downgrade isn’t just “we don’t like Rivian” – it’s “we don’t like early‑stage EV makers in this macro environment, and Rivian is one of the most exposed.”

Safety Recall: 34,824 Delivery Vans Under the Microscope

Layered onto the downgrade is a fresh recall headline.

What happened

Rivian is recalling 34,824 Electric Delivery Vans (EDVs) in the U.S. over a driver seat belt pretensioner cable issue. ^[14]
The problem occurs when drivers repeatedly sit on a buckled belt to silence the chime, which can damage the cable and potentially prevent the belt from working properly in a crash. ^[15]
The affected vans were built between December 10, 2021 and November 8, 2025, primarily for Amazon’s delivery fleet. ^[16]
Rivian says no injuries or accidents have been reported. ^[17]

The fix is relatively straightforward:

An over‑the‑air software update went out on December 3 to detect seat‑belt misuse.
Rivian will inspect and, if needed, replace the pretensioner assemblies at no cost and reimburse prior repairs. ^[18]

Barron’s points out that the recall covers more than 20% of all Rivian vehicles ever sold, yet investor reaction has been muted because recalls are ubiquitous in auto land – Ford alone has recalled over 12 million vehicles this year and its stock is still up sharply. ^[19]

So while the recall isn’t great optics, markets appear to see it as “business as usual” in the car industry, not a thesis‑breaking event.

Fundamentals Are Improving: Q3 2025 Was a Real Turning Point

Behind the noisy headlines, Rivian’s Q3 2025 numbers actually looked like the start of a real business.

Q3 2025 by the numbers

Multiple sources summarizing Rivian’s Q3 release highlight: ^[20]

Total revenue: about $1.56 billion, up 78% year‑over‑year.
Automotive revenue: roughly $1.1–1.14 billion, up ~47% from a year earlier as deliveries surged.
Software & services revenue: around $416 million, largely from its joint venture with Volkswagen.
Gross profit:+$24 million consolidated — a modest number, but a huge swing from a $260 million gross loss in Q2 and a much larger loss a year ago.
Net loss: still roughly $1.1 billion for the quarter (this is not a Tesla‑2013 moment yet).
Production & deliveries:
- Produced about 10,720 vehicles in Q3.
- Delivered 13,201 vehicles – Rivian’s highest quarterly delivery total of 2025 so far.

On a per‑vehicle basis, one analysis estimates Rivian went from losing over $30,000 per vehicle not long ago to positive gross profit of more than $2,000 per vehicle in Q3. ^[21] That’s exactly the direction you want to see in an early‑stage manufacturer.

2025 guidance

Rivian’s Q3 commentary and follow‑up coverage highlight the company’s full‑year 2025 guidance: ^[22]

Deliveries:41,500–43,500 vehicles.
Adjusted EBITDA: loss of roughly $2.0–2.25 billion.
Capex:$1.8–1.9 billion, much of it tied to the R2 program, the Normal, IL expansion, and early work on the Georgia plant.

So yes, revenue is growing fast and gross profit has turned positive, but Rivian is still burning a lot of cash, and management isn’t pretending otherwise.

R2, Georgia Plant and the Volkswagen Alliance: The Long‑Term Growth Story

The bullish case for Rivian essentially comes down to three interlocking pieces: the R2 SUV, a scaled‑out manufacturing footprint, and a high‑margin software and platform business anchored by Volkswagen.

R2: Rivian’s make‑or‑break mainstream SUV

The R2 is Rivian’s upcoming mid‑size, more affordable SUV, designed to move the company beyond wealthy early adopters and into the broader EV market:

Target price: around $45,000 starting price. ^[23]
Timing: manufacturing and deliveries are still guided for the first half of 2026, with initial builds at the Normal, Illinois plant. ^[24]
Early announcements and shareholder letters suggested tens of thousands of reservations within a day of unveiling, underscoring pent‑up demand for a cheaper Rivian. ^[25]

To prepare for R2, Rivian:

Completed a new 1.1 million square foot body shop and assembly facility plus a 1.2 million square foot supplier park in Normal, IL, boosting that plant’s capacity to around 215,000 units per year. ^[26]
Announced a three‑week shutdown in September 2025 at Normal to retool for high‑volume R2 production. ^[27]

Morgan Stanley’s downgrade is, in large part, a bet that R2 won’t ramp as smoothly or profitably as bulls hope. But if Rivian can hit its timelines and keep improving unit economics, R2 is the product that could double or triple volume over the next few years.

Georgia mega‑plant: capacity for R2, R3 and exports

On September 16, 2025, Rivian held a groundbreaking ceremony for its new plant near Social Circle, Georgia: ^[28]

Investment: multi‑billion‑dollar project with backing from the state.
Jobs: expected to create 7,500 permanent jobs by 2030, plus about 2,000 construction jobs.
Products: will build the R2 and the smaller R3 crossover.
Timeline:
- Construction ramps in 2026.
- Customer production expected in 2028.
Capacity: two phases, each adding about 200,000 units of annual capacity, for a total of up to 400,000 vehicles per year once fully built out.

In other words, the Georgia plant is not about the next couple of quarters; it’s about whether Rivian can be a 400k+ units‑per‑year global EV brand next decade.

The Volkswagen joint venture: software, cash, and leverage

Rivian’s most under‑appreciated asset might be its software and electronics stack, which now sits at the heart of a $5.8 billion joint venture with Volkswagen Group.

Key points: ^[29]

VW plans to invest up to $5.8 billion in Rivian and the JV through 2027.
The structure includes:
- A $1 billion convertible note (already funded).
- About $1.3 billion for IP licenses and a 50% stake in the JV.
- Additional equity and JV funding tranches over the coming years.
The JV is building a zonal electronics and software platform to power future vehicles from Volkswagen, Audi, Scout and Rivian itself.
A recent VW update says:
- The JV now has over 1,500 employees and is making “strong progress.”
- Winter testing of reference vehicles is scheduled for Q1 2026. ^[30]
In Q3 2025, Rivian booked around $416 million of revenue from software and services, largely tied to this partnership. ^[31]

For Rivian, the JV does three things at once:

Provides capital on relatively good terms (the June 2025 $1 billion equity tranche priced at a premium to the then‑market price). ^[32]
Creates a high‑margin revenue stream that scales as VW rolls out SDV‑based vehicles. ^[33]
Validates Rivian’s software architecture as something other automakers are willing to deploy at scale.

Add in the fact that Amazon remains Rivian’s largest shareholder with roughly 158 million shares, and that VW is building a similarly large stake, and you get a company where its two biggest customers are also its biggest outside owners. ^[34]

That’s a very unusual capital structure for a young carmaker.

What Analysts Are Saying: Price Targets and Consensus

Despite today’s downgrade, Wall Street isn’t uniformly bearish on Rivian – it’s split.

Street consensus

From several aggregators and recent notes: ^[35]

Around 26–30 analysts cover RIVN.
Consensus rating: roughly “Hold” (average recommendation around 2.7 on a 1–5 scale, where 1 = Strong Buy, 5 = Sell).
Distribution:
- ~6 Buy ratings
- Mid‑teens Hold ratings
- ~6 Sell/Underperform ratings
Average 12‑month price target:mid‑$14s (roughly $14.3–$14.9 depending on the dataset).
Target range:
- Low: about $10
- High: about $25

At today’s price near $17–18, the average analyst target implies modest downside over the next year, with bull cases still arguing for significant upside and bear cases calling for a slide back toward $10–12.

Some specific voices:

Morgan Stanley: Underweight, $12 target, citing R2 launch risk and EV demand slowdown. ^[36]
24/7 Wall St (house view, not a sell‑side bank): internal year‑ahead price target of $11.88, implying ~31% downside, though they project revenue doubling by 2030 with breakeven around then. ^[37]
On the positive side, firms like Stifel and Tigress Financial maintain Buy ratings with targets in the high‑teens to mid‑20s, arguing that R2 plus the VW JV can eventually justify much higher valuations. ^[38]

The big picture: analysts agree Rivian is strategically interesting, but disagree on whether current valuation properly reflects the risk of getting from here to long‑term profitability.

Key Bull vs. Bear Arguments on Rivian Stock

Let’s boil down what the optimists and pessimists are actually arguing.

The bull case in plain English

Bulls focus on a few core points: ^[39]

Real product love: R1T and R1S are widely regarded as some of the best‑reviewed EV trucks/SUVs in the U.S. market, with high owner satisfaction and strong safety ratings.
Visible operational progress: Deliveries are rising, gross profit has turned positive, and per‑vehicle losses have shrunk dramatically.
R2 is priced for a much bigger market at around $45k, which could meaningfully expand demand if Rivian executes.
Software and services revenue is already material, thanks to the Volkswagen JV, and may scale with relatively high margins compared to building metal.
Deep‑pocketed strategic backers (Amazon and VW) both buy vehicles and own large equity stakes, giving Rivian a cushion that pure‑play startups typically lack.
The Georgia plant and Normal expansion give Rivian a path to 400k+ units of annual capacity, enough to matter globally if demand is there.

Viewed this way, Rivian looks less like “an overhyped truck startup” and more like a vertically integrated EV and software platform with real industrial backing.

The bear case (also in plain English)

Bears, including Morgan Stanley’s new analyst, are worried about: ^[40]

The EV slowdown: U.S. EV growth has decelerated, and the federal $7,500 EV tax credit has been removed, which analysts expect to weigh on 2025–26 demand and pricing power.
Massive cash burn: Even with positive gross profit, Rivian is still on track to lose billions in 2025–26, and several analysts don’t expect free‑cash‑flow breakeven until late this decade.
R2 execution risk: R2 is launching into a more crowded, more cautious EV market, and if it stumbles (delays, quality issues, weak margins), Rivian’s growth narrative breaks.
Dilution or extra debt: unless operating performance improves faster than expected, more capital raises are likely over the next few years.
Policy risk and tariffs: cost pressures from tariffs and supply chains are already showing up in Rivian’s guidance, and can add “a few thousand dollars per vehicle” in some scenarios. ^[41]
Competitors: Tesla, Ford, GM, Chinese EV makers and a wave of new mid‑priced EVs are all fighting for the same buyers R2 is targeting.

From this perspective, Rivian looks like a high‑risk, long‑duration bet that could work wonderfully if everything lines up – or suffer badly if EV adoption stays sluggish or capital markets tighten again.

Upcoming Catalysts: What to Watch After December 8

A few near‑ and medium‑term events could move RIVN from here.

1. Autonomy & AI Day – December 11, 2025

Rivian will host its first “Autonomy & AI Day” on December 11 at 9 a.m. PT, with a live stream open to investors and customers. ^[42]

Based on company teasers and third‑party previews: ^[43]

Expect a demo of “Universal Hands‑Free” highway driving on Gen 2 R1 vehicles.
Rivian plans to delve into its sensor stack (cameras, radar, ultrasonics) and long‑term autonomy roadmap.
Management has hinted at hands‑free, point‑to‑point capabilities around 2026, with subscription‑style monetization possible later.

For the stock, the key question isn’t “can the car drive itself in a demo?” but whether Rivian convinces investors it has a durable, monetizable software platform rather than just a cool truck with over‑the‑air updates.

2. Execution on the recall

Short‑term, watch how quickly Rivian: ^[44]

Rolls out physical inspections and replacements for EDV pretensioners.
Manages relationships with Amazon and other fleet customers during the process.
Avoids any actual safety incidents that might change the narrative.

If the recall remains a “no‑injury, fixed‑via‑software + component swap” story, it likely fades into the background.

3. Q4 2025 results and 2026 guidance

When Rivian reports Q4 and full‑year results in early 2026, investors will focus on: ^[45]

Whether it hits or misses its 2025 delivery range of 41,500–43,500.
Updated 2026 delivery and margin guidance, particularly around R2.
Any change in capex plans or timing of the Georgia plant build‑out.
How quickly software and JV revenue continues to grow.

4. Capital structure moves

Rivian has already tapped convertible debt and equity from VW, and has talked about refinancing 2026 maturities and securing additional liquidity. ^[46]

Future moves – more equity, more convertibles, or non‑dilutive financing tied to plants and equipment – will strongly influence shareholder dilution risk.

So Where Does That Leave Rivian Stock?

Right now, Rivian is a bundle of contradictions:

A company that just posted positive gross profit and record deliveries, but still burns over a billion dollars a quarter. ^[47]
An EV maker that has two of the most loved vehicles in its segment, yet faces slower EV adoption and the end of U.S. federal tax credits. ^[48]
A “startup” that is backed by Amazon and Volkswagen, yet trades like a speculative high‑beta growth name. ^[49]

On December 8, 2025, the headline story is negative: a downgrade to Sell, a recall and a red day for the stock. Underneath that, the fundamental story is more nuanced:

If R2 launches roughly on schedule, the Georgia plant ramps, the VW JV scales and autonomy features prove sticky, Rivian could grow into its ambitions and then some.
If EV demand remains weak, R2 margins disappoint, or capital markets turn hostile, Rivian’s current ~$22 billion valuation could be hard to defend.