Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) closed lower again on Tuesday, December 9, extending a rare nine‑session losing streak even as the drugmaker announced a multibillion‑dollar U.S. manufacturing expansion and positive cancer‑drug trial data. StockAnalysis
Heading into the U.S. stock market open on Wednesday, December 10, Eli Lilly stock is showing signs of a bounce in pre‑market trading – but investors are juggling a lot of fresh information: new capex, a completed acquisition, major oncology data, evolving GLP‑1 pricing, and a nervous macro backdrop ahead of a key Federal Reserve decision. Market Chameleon
Below is a full rundown of what happened after the bell on December 9, 2025 – and what traders and long‑term investors should know before the opening bell on December 10.
How Eli Lilly Stock Traded After the Bell on December 9, 2025
- Closing price: Eli Lilly shares finished Tuesday at $982.22, down about 1.5% on the day. StockAnalysis
- Intraday range: The stock opened near $1,002.84, ran as high as roughly $1,012 and dipped as low as about $979, on volume of around 2.5–2.6 million shares. Investing
- Streak: That close marked the ninth consecutive daily decline, according to market commentary, even though the company delivered multiple positive corporate updates. Stocktwits
- After‑hours move: In post‑market trading on Tuesday, LLY was reported to edge about 0.02% lower, essentially flat versus the regular‑session close. Stocktwits
Despite this pullback, Eli Lilly is still up roughly high‑20s percent year‑to‑date, and remains the largest healthcare company by market capitalization globally, ahead of Johnson & Johnson and AbbVie. The Motley Fool
Early Pre‑Market Signal for December 10
As of early Wednesday pre‑market trading, LLY was last seen around $1,013, with roughly 33,700 shares changing hands – a bounce of just over 3% from Tuesday’s close. Market Chameleon
That suggests a potential relief move at the open as investors digest a flurry of news, though pre‑market pricing can be volatile and thinly traded.
Big Story #1: $6 Billion Alabama Plant to Boost GLP‑1 and Small‑Molecule Capacity
The most eye‑catching headline on December 9 was Eli Lilly’s announcement of a more than $6 billion manufacturing facility in Huntsville, Alabama, focused on active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). PR Newswire
What Lilly Announced
- The Huntsville (Greenbrier South) site will produce small‑molecule synthetic and peptide medicines, including Lilly’s oral GLP‑1 candidate orforglipron. PR Newswire
- The facility is part of Lilly’s broader U.S. manufacturing push and is described as the third of four new U.S. sites the company plans to announce. MarketScreener
- The company expects to create around 3,000 construction jobs and about 450 long‑term roles (engineers, operators, lab staff) once the plant is fully operational. Stocktwits
- Digital automation, AI‑enabled systems and advanced analytics are expected to be embedded throughout the site to improve reliability and productivity. PR Newswire
- Construction is slated to begin in 2026 and run through 2032, underscoring this as a long‑term capacity and resilience investment. Stocktwits
Lilly has now announced nine U.S. manufacturing sites since 2020, underscoring how seriously it is taking domestic capacity and supply‑chain security for its diabetes, obesity and oncology franchises. Stocktwits
Why It Matters for LLY Stock
- GLP‑1 capacity & growth: The Huntsville plant is tied directly to orforglipron, Lilly’s first oral GLP‑1 receptor agonist, which has shown positive Phase 3 results in type 2 diabetes and is being developed for obesity and other indications. Stocktwits
- Capex vs. free cash flow: A $6B multi‑year project increases near‑term capital spending, which can weigh on free cash flow and margins in the short run, even if it supports higher revenue and profits later.
- Policy & politics: Large U.S. manufacturing investments can bolster the company’s standing with U.S. policymakers amid ongoing scrutiny of drug pricing and supply chains.
The paradox on Tuesday was that LLY traded lower even as this long‑term growth project was unveiled, highlighting how much near‑term sentiment and macro risk can overshadow positive company‑specific news.
Big Story #2: Adverum Acquisition Closes – Gene Therapy Push in Eye Diseases
Also on December 9, Eli Lilly completed its acquisition of Adverum Biotechnologies (ADVM), following the expiration of a tender offer the prior evening. Yahoo Finance
Deal Terms and Structure
- The tender offer expired one minute after 11:59 p.m. ET on December 8, and the merger closed before the market open on December 9. NASDAQ Trader
- Adverum shareholders received $3.56 in cash per share plus a non‑tradable contingent value right (CVR) that can pay up to $8.91 per share if specified milestones are hit. Stock Titan
- Approximately 16.5 million shares were tendered – about 64% of Adverum’s outstanding shares – with the rest to be acquired via the merger process. Stock Titan
Strategic Rationale
Lilly gains Adverum’s lead gene therapy program ixoberogene soroparvovec (Ixo‑vec), an intravitreal (in‑eye) gene therapy candidate for neovascular or “wet” age‑related macular degeneration (AMD) – a large, chronic market with high unmet need driven by frequent injection burden. PR Newswire
For investors, this move:
- Adds a long‑duration, high‑risk/high‑reward ophthalmology asset into Lilly’s pipeline.
- Broadens Lilly’s exposure to gene therapy platforms, a space with significant scientific upside but also regulatory and commercial uncertainty.
In the near term, the Adverum deal is not a major earnings driver, but it reinforces the idea that Lilly is using its obesity and diabetes windfall to buy long‑dated innovation options.
Big Story #3: Jaypirca Trial Win – 80% Lower Risk of Disease Progression in Front‑Line CLL/SLL
Before the market open on December 9, Lilly released pivotal Phase 3 data for its BTK inhibitor Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib) in treatment‑naïve chronic lymphocytic leukemia/small lymphocytic lymphoma (CLL/SLL). PR Newswire
Key Data Highlights
- In the BRUIN CLL‑313 study, Jaypirca reduced the risk of disease progression or death by about 80% versus standard chemoimmunotherapy (bendamustine + rituximab) in previously untreated CLL/SLL patients without 17p deletion. PR Newswire
- The drug achieved significantly better progression‑free survival (PFS), the trial’s primary endpoint. MarketScreener
- Lilly is already submitting data from BRUIN CLL‑313 and the related BRUIN CLL‑314 trial to regulators with the goal of expanding Jaypirca’s label into earlier lines of therapy in 2026. PR Newswire
Why This Matters
Jaypirca is already approved for certain relapsed/refractory CLL/SLL and mantle cell lymphoma settings. Extending use into front‑line CLL/SLL would:
- Increase the addressable market for Jaypirca.
- Intensify competition with existing BTK drugs such as AbbVie/Johnson & Johnson’s Imbruvica and other next‑generation agents. MarketScreener
For shareholders, the trial win reinforces the idea that Lilly’s oncology franchise is more than just a side show to GLP‑1 weight‑loss drugs – it’s a potentially meaningful second growth pillar.
Big Story #4: GLP‑1 Price Cuts and Global Access – Zepbound and Mounjaro Updates
Beyond Tuesday’s headlines, two recent GLP‑1 developments are still shaping how investors view Lilly’s long‑term earnings power.
Zepbound Price Cuts in the U.S.
On December 1, Lilly cut U.S. list prices for single‑dose vials of its obesity drug Zepbound, lowering the starting 2.5 mg monthly vial to $299 (from $349), and reducing prices for higher doses as well. Reuters
The cuts:
- Aim to improve affordability and insurance coverage for obesity treatment amid surging demand.
- Follow earlier reductions for multi‑dose pens, which are still awaiting FDA approval. Reuters
- Reflect the early stages of a pricing “arms race” in obesity drugs, with payers, regulators, and politicians watching closely.
Mounjaro Added to China’s State Insurance List
On December 8, Reuters reported that Mounjaro (tirzepatide) will be added to China’s national health insurance reimbursement list for type 2 diabetes effective January 1, 2026. Reuters
Key implications:
- Volume boost: Inclusion in national insurance typically widens access dramatically in China’s 1.4‑billion‑person market.
- Price pressure: Reimbursement comes with negotiated lower prices, which can compress margins but still grow total revenue via volume. Reuters
- Competitive dynamics: Analysts expect intensified competition with Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Innovent’s Mazdutide, potentially reshaping GLP‑1 pricing across the region. Reuters
For LLY stock, these moves highlight the trade‑off between access and pricing power: obesity and diabetes sales can keep growing, but investors must factor in lower per‑patient revenue over time.
Fundamentals Check: Earnings, Balance Sheet and Valuation
A December 9 MarketBeat note (tied to a small insider sale by Senator John Boozman) reiterated just how strong Lilly’s fundamental profile currently looks: MarketBeat
- Latest quarter:
- Earnings per share (EPS) of $7.02, beating the $6.42 consensus.
- Revenue of $17.6 billion, up about 53.9% year‑over‑year.
- Net margin around 31% and return on equity over 100%, reflecting high profitability and capital efficiency. MarketBeat
- 2025 guidance: Management has guided to FY 2025 EPS of $23.00–$23.70, underlining expectations for continued rapid growth. MarketBeat
- Balance sheet & ratios:
- Debt‑to‑equity ratio near 1.7, indicating meaningful but manageable leverage.
- Quick ratio around 1.2 and current ratio about 1.6, suggesting solid liquidity. MarketBeat
- Dividend: The quarterly dividend was recently raised to $1.73 per share ($6.92 annualized), implying a yield around 0.7% and a payout ratio of ~29%, leaving room to reinvest heavily in growth. MarketBeat
At Tuesday’s close near $982, Lilly trades at a rich earnings multiple (P/E ~ high‑40s) and a premium PEG ratio, but analysts generally argue the valuation reflects the durability and scale of GLP‑1 and oncology growth. MarketBeat
Street View: Analyst Targets and Ratings After the Pullback
Despite the nine‑day slide, Wall Street’s stance on Eli Lilly remains broadly positive:
- Average 12‑month price target: About $1,087 per share, implying roughly 10–11% upside from the current price. MarketBeat
- Target range:
- High: Around $1,300.
- Low: Around $800. MarketBeat
- Ratings mix: Approximately 3 “Strong Buy”, 17 “Buy” and 6 “Hold” ratings, for a consensus of “Moderate Buy.” MarketBeat
Recent moves include:
- Bernstein boosting its target to $1,300 and maintaining Outperform. MarketBeat
- Guggenheim raising its target to $1,163 while reiterating a Buy rating, citing GLP‑1 growth. Investing
- BMO Capital maintaining Outperform with an earlier average target around $1,020, based on mid‑November pricing. Nasdaq
In short, the Street largely views the recent share‑price weakness as a pullback within a longer‑term uptrend, but acknowledges elevated valuation, leverage, and GLP‑1 competition as key risks.
Macro Backdrop: Fed Decision Jitters and Healthcare Volatility
Lilly’s moves are happening against a jittery market backdrop:
- Investors are bracing for heightened volatility into year‑end as they debate how soon and how fast the Federal Reserve will cut rates, with equities still near record levels after an AI‑driven rally. Reuters
- In healthcare specifically, sector round‑ups have highlighted pressure on obesity‑drug names as competitors launch new agents and pricing competition intensifies. Morningstar
For a high‑multiple stock like Lilly, changes in rate expectations (and thus discount rates) can have an outsized impact on valuation, even when company news is strong.
What to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 10, 2025
Here are the key things traders and investors may want to monitor as the bell approaches:
1. Will the 9‑Day Losing Streak Finally Break?
Pre‑market indications near $1,013 suggest buyers are stepping back in after a nearly 9% pullback from the late‑November high around $1,075. Investing
- Watch whether volume picks up on any early rebound – strong turnover on an up day can signal a change in sentiment.
- If the stock fades back toward the $980 region, it would suggest sellers are still in control ahead of the Fed decision.
2. Market Reaction to the $6B Alabama Plant
Investors are still parsing the Huntsville news:
- Long‑term positive: More GLP‑1 and small‑molecule capacity should support growth for orforglipron and other pipeline drugs.
- Short‑term concern: The sheer size and duration of the capex program may raise questions around free cash flow and capital allocation, especially given Lilly’s already elevated valuation. PR Newswire
How analysts frame the plant in post‑announcement notes – as a necessary investment in growth or an expensive expansion – could influence trading today.
3. Follow‑Through on Jaypirca Oncology Momentum
Look for:
- Additional sell‑side commentary on the Jaypirca data and how much front‑line CLL/SLL revenue potential analysts are now baking into their models. MarketScreener
- Any hints from management (via conferences or Q&A) about timelines for regulatory submissions and potential label expansion in 2026.
Stronger‑than‑expected oncology contributions could help diversify Lilly’s growth story beyond obesity and diabetes.
4. Integration Updates on Adverum and Gene Therapy Strategy
Near‑term, the Adverum deal is mostly about pipeline optionality:
- Investors may watch for more detail on how quickly Lilly can move Ixo‑vec forward, and whether any additional milestones or write‑offs emerge as integration proceeds. PR Newswire
Any commentary that de‑risks the program could be modestly supportive for sentiment; problems could feed into broader concerns about Lilly’s aggressive business‑development pace.
5. GLP‑1 Pricing and Access Narrative
Expect more debate today around:
- Whether the Zepbound price cuts are a one‑off or the start of more aggressive discounting. Reuters
- How the addition of Mounjaro to China’s reimbursement list will balance price and volume over the next decade. Reuters
For longer‑term holders, the key question is whether unit growth in obesity and diabetes more than offsets pricing pressure and capacity costs.
6. Fed Decision and Sector Flows
Finally, don’t ignore the macro:
- A more dovish‑than‑expected Fed could reinforce appetite for long‑duration growth stocks like Eli Lilly, supporting a rebound.
- A hawkish surprise or delay in cuts could pressure high‑multiple names, regardless of company‑specific news. Reuters
Healthcare‑specific flows may also remain choppy as investors reposition around GLP‑1 competition and broader sector rotation.
Key Risks to Keep in Mind
Even with strong fundamentals and bullish Street forecasts, Eli Lilly carries meaningful risks that could shape trading today and beyond:
- Regulatory and safety risks in GLP‑1s (obesity, diabetes, sleep apnea) and oncology.
- Pricing pressure from governments and insurers, particularly in obesity and in markets like China where reimbursement deals trade price for volume. Reuters
- Execution risk on large manufacturing builds (Alabama, Texas, Virginia, Puerto Rico), where delays or cost overruns could weigh on margins. PR Newswire
- Integration and clinical risk around acquisitions like Adverum and advanced modalities such as gene therapy. PR Newswire
For anyone considering trading or investing in LLY, it’s important to align decisions with your own risk tolerance, time horizon and financial situation. The information above is not personalized investment advice, but a snapshot of the latest news and consensus views heading into the December 10, 2025 market open.
